US Presidential Elections - 2024 edition

[Elerond]

One thing that people don't talk yet is that Harris can still declare herself as president in January 6 

[BruceVC]

1 minute ago, Chairchucker said:

Like I said, no voter ID required. Just use some common security questions I guess.

Yes but just to be clear,  the list they have on you is that the voters role?

What I want to understand is where do they get that information from that they check the security questions. Im trying to compare it to South African elections to be clear on the differences in how you vote 

 

[BruceVC]

4 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Apparently voter turnout was much lower than last time. It's just such a lol thing. I guess democratic voters were so sure of winning that they felt no need to go to vote... again. Just like last time with Trump.

That will be interesting if true because then the question will be " why didnt  the same number of people vote " if this election was as  important compared to other elections?

[BruceVC]

3 minutes ago, Elerond said:

One thing that people don't talk yet is that Harris can still declare herself as president in January 6 

I can guarantee you we wont hear anyone say "this election was stolen "  

[Chairchucker]

4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Yes but just to be clear,  the list they have on you is that the voters role?

What I want to understand is where do they get that information from that they check the security questions. Im trying to compare it to South African elections to be clear on the differences in how you vote 

 

Probably. I don't pay too much attention to what the book is they're flicking through.

[bugarup]

Oh well. The lesson all other countries should take from this is never, ever neglect your education systems. 

[Lexx]

15 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Oh well. The lesson all other countries should take from this is never, ever neglect your education systems. 

Unless you want this outcome.

[melkathi]

And they do want this outcome.

Look at Greece removing art from the syllabus and replacing it with cheerleading.

[majestic]

2 hours ago, Lexx said:

If Trump will win, I have lost my trust in all of you americans.

/Edit: Did a quick google. I really can't understand this. wtf, americans are some of the dumbest people on the planet. If any american around here feels insulted now, yeah, you probably should be. This is just absolutely embarrassing for your country.

Says the guy from AfDmany. Don't misunderestimate (sic, best Bushism ) me, my own reaction to this quagmire mirrors yours, but it is problematic to cast stones while sitting in the proverbial glass house. More so for me than you, because technically the AfD isn't the strongest party in the Bundestag just yet, but you'll get there. Eventually. Just like we did.

We don't need to look that far away and try to understand this Trump victory. We have Orban, Wilders, Kickl, Höcke, Weidel, Le Pen and Kaczynski as well as Wagenknecht from the other side of the spectrum (sort of). The Brits had their funny Trump copy, there's on the other side of the planet, even when not looking at the US, there's the Argentinian nutjob Milei, there was the Brazilian nutjob Bolsonaro.

Not like our population is any smarter, we just have other parties people can funnel their frustration with the establishment into, as you can see with the meteoric rise of the BSW in Germany's eastern federal states. The biggest advantage we have over the US is that our voting systems usually do not have a "the winner takes it all" feature, but even in Europe you can point at the nations that do and their weird election results. Like, well, the Brits, where Keir Starmer's Labour won almost two thirds of the seats with 33% in the popular vote. Keir Starmer of course immediately proceeded to be just another establishment politician. Or France, where candidates were forced to not run to produce a win for everyone who was not in the Front Rassemblement National.

Edited 21 hours ago by majestic

[Lexx]

41 minutes ago, majestic said:

Says the guy from AfDmany. Don't misunderestimate (sic, best Bushism ) me, my own reaction to this quagmire mirrors yours, but it is problematic to cast stones while sitting in the proverbial glass house. More so for me than you, because technically the AfD isn't the strongest party in the Bundestag just yet, but you'll get there. Eventually. Just like we did.

Nah, I expected this response. EU is not better at all. However, if something like this shifts in Germany, most of the world couldn't care less. Meanwhile the USA have a *huge* influence on the rest of the world. That's the big difference.

Also the US have the biggest military power in the world, which means it's technically a danger to all of us. I don't want them to be a super nazi state. German military is a joke. If we go to war, half our soldiers will call in sick leave and the rest didn't even had basic training yet.

Edited 20 hours ago by Lexx

[Elerond]

12 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Also the US have the biggest military power in the world, which means it's technically a danger to all of us. I don't want them to be a super nazi state. German military is a joke. If we go to war, half our soldiers will call in sick leave and the rest didn't even had basic training yet.

Don't worry this election result will mean that European countries will build their military up in fast pace which is not anything to worry over considering that nationalist have won last elections almost every country in Europe in countries past elections.

And as history teach us Europe never goes war when it has nationalist governments that put trillions in new armaments.

[Also gorgon]

AWW MAN

[HoonDing]

Hillary at least won the popular vote... Trump will get 5 million more than Harris.

[Lexx]

1 hour ago, Elerond said:

Don't worry this election result will mean that European countries will build their military up in fast pace which is not anything to worry over considering that nationalist have won last elections almost every country in Europe in countries past elections.

And as history teach us Europe never goes war when it has nationalist governments that put trillions in new armaments.

War and military is extremely unpopular in Germany. I'm pretty sure whatever party will re-introduce the military draft is going to lose the next election. Currently we are pretty much using our anti-war sentiment to just do the same as always-- absolutely nothing. The only ones winning are the people invested in the arms trade, that's the only thing we're stocking up in.

[BruceVC]

14 minutes ago, Lexx said:

War and military is extremely unpopular in Germany. I'm pretty sure whatever party will re-introduce the military draft is going to lose the next election. Currently we are pretty much using our anti-war sentiment to just do the same as always-- absolutely nothing. The only ones winning are the people invested in the arms trade, that's the only thing we're stocking up in.

But do  you not think the EU  needs to its own well resourced and funded military that is  effective and independent of the US in most areas where reasonable?

And Germany would be a part of that as the strongest economy?

 

[Elerond]

7 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

But do  you not think the EU  needs to its own well resourced and funded military that is  effective and independent of the US in most areas where reasonable?

And Germany would be a part of that as the strongest economy?

 

EU already has well resourced and funded military. EU's defense expenditure is over 200 billion euros per year (so only USA and China use more money to their military), but EU's military is controlled by member nations and their military alliances, not the union itself.

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, BruceVC said:

The interesting part now will be how effective Trump will be in addressing these core issues, border\illegal migration and the economy: inflation

Dubious

[Gfted1]

I bet you it was Russian nazis that flipped WI to red. Or maybe it was @Bartimaeus  

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

So as things roll on and the dust settles some thots:

1) Total voting looks on track to be more than 10 million less than four years ago. In some ways this feels very much like 2016 again, with two deeply unpopular candidates running and there not being much enthusiasm for the dems while gop is animated with cult adoration. Overall I think a read of this as a broad rejection of the Biden administration (and the continuation of it via Harris) is probably more correct than people generally becoming maga.

2) The momentum from Kamala replacing Biden completely evaporated in the face of the laughable centrism of dem strategists. Dems managed to alienate potential voters with wishy washy nothings on pretty much everything while all outreach to Republicans yielded jack ****. Again I think the dem strategy of taking progressive and minority voters for granted while they chase conservatives is a huge mistake and by God are we seeing that unfold.

3) Things are either going to go to **** or it's going to be a situation where a Trump bi/trifecta doesn't do anything because they only have concepts of a plan, if that. Maybe 50/50 split. Either way we'll probably see Dems really win in 2026. Assuming they don't **** it up by uncritically supporting a genocide or trying to beat Trump on the border.

4) While I don't think Trump goes away with Trump (assuming he does go away), I do think the reorientation of the GOP as a cult dedicated to him is going to collapse because he doesn't have a successor and doesn't care to appoint one. Will be a nasty fight to claim his mantle and even so won't really guarantee Trump level support, in many ways Trump is lightning in a bottle that probably won't be replicated by losers like Rhonda Sanctimonious or Rammyswammy or Lyin Ted.

[BruceVC]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/06/black-latino-voters-boost-donald-trump-election-victory/76084362007/

Here is some interesting data , Hispanic support for Trump helped him achieve his massive gains and win

"  A realignment among Latino voters – and a smaller shift among Black voters in key swing states− helped catapult Donald Trump to his election victory over Kamala Harris as the Republican nominee expanded his support by peeling off voters from two core Democratic constituencies."

 

" Although Trump didn’t win a majority of either group, he won support from about 13% of Black voters nationally and 45% of Latino voters, according to CNN exit polls. In the 2020 election, Trump won just 8% of Black voters and 32% of Latinos." 

 

[Malcador]

42 minutes ago, PK htiw klaw eriF said:

2) The momentum from Kamala replacing Biden completely evaporated in the face of the laughable centrism of dem strategists. Dems managed to alienate potential voters with wishy washy nothings on pretty much everything while all outreach to Republicans yielded jack ****. Again I think the dem strategy of taking progressive and minority voters for granted while they chase conservatives is a huge mistake and by God are we seeing that unfold.

Think they'll remedy this by going to the right ?

[rjshae]

Well, the Democrats are now 0-2 running female candidates for Presidents. My conjecture is it will take a special female candidate to win the office for the first time (assuming there will be any future fair elections). To me, Harris lacks charisma and doesn't have a good speaking voice. I thought at the time that Biden made a non-optimal choice for VP, and now here's the consequence.

As for the election whiner, well life is funny even when it's not. It was a "titanic" victory.

[Gfted1]

This is the butterfly effect from canceling gun clubs in US schools in the 80-90's. We wouldnt be having this discussion if the bullet would have been 3 inches to the right. The nazi long game wins again.

[BruceVC]

5 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Well, the Democrats are now 0-2 running female candidates for Presidents. My conjecture is it will take a special female candidate to win the office for the first time (assuming there will be any future fair elections). To me, Harris lacks charisma and doesn't have a good speaking voice. I thought at the time that Biden made a non-optimal choice for VP, and now here's the consequence.

As for the election whiner, well life is funny even when it's not. It was a "titanic" victory.

But I dont think it should ever be an effective strategy to use race or gender as a reason to vote for someone 

That doesn't resonate with most people anymore, the policies and current issues in any Democracy is what really matters to voters. There are lots of examples of excellent female PM\presidents  or leaders throughout the world so its not  like there arent  examples of this 

Part of the Dems strategy or the perception of Harris success was " she is a  black female " and that alone would be  enough

Thats how it was covered in our media by many commentators 

 

 

[BruceVC]

4 minutes ago, Gfted1 said:

This is the butterfly effect from canceling gun clubs in US schools in the 80-90's. We wouldnt be having this discussion if the bullet would have been 3 inches to the right. The nazi long game wins again.

If  Trump had been killed he would have become a martyr and  the GOP possibly  gaining  more support from the " Deep State " crowd 

And that wouldnt have changed the core issues that Americans voted on? And imagine Vance as president, thats worse than Trump IMO