Ukraine Conflict

[bugarup]

Ah yes, both sides ignored it and so everyone in the dirt, absolutely, yes. Fact that one of the "sides" just ripped a chunk of land from another and wages war in another corner of your country does mean nothing, because we must be clinically unbiased whenever russia is involved, right? Cause bias is not infinite resource, see, gotta save it for them evil colonialist Western countries and their dastardly allies like Israel, Turkey and Arabs. Russia? Can do no wrong We must be unbiased.                                     Also, of course Zelensky can get away with awful lot because he is western backed and totally not because his country is in the state of emergency due to its neighbour waging eradication war (have you listened to their propaganda lately, by the way? All the "denazification" bull**** is long gone, now its surprisingly candid "Ukraine is not a real country and should not exist") against you.

Edited December 14, 2022 by bugarup
Paragraphs are verboten again. >:(

[Sarex]

5 minutes ago, bugarup said:

Fact that one of the "sides" just ripped a chunk of land from another and wages war in another corner of your country does mean nothing

We are talking about the west right? Or does the middle east not exist? Let's also not forget Kosovo and the ethnic cleansing that Croatia did in their "Oluja" operation that was fully sanctioned by the west.

[majestic]

[Mamoulian War]

6 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Zelensky has banned opposition parties and proposed banning the Ukrainian Orthodox Church as well as bringing in penalties for speaking Russian (ah yes, I remember well when persecution of Russian speakers was 'Fake News' and would never happen, after Maidan...). He's not even relatively progressive.

You can get away with an awful lot when you're western backed and the media won't report on anything negative.

That is absolute bull**** Russian propaganda. Russian language was never penalized. Zelenskyi is Russian speaking Ukrainian, he started to speak Ukrainian only after he has become Ukrainian president. I have never met a single Russian speaking Ukrainian, which has in any way prohibited to speak Russian language... I had also taken care of two Russian speaking Ukrainian teenagers, who started to speak Ukrainian only after the start of the war, and up until this day they speak more often Russian than Ukrainian, I have Ukrainian colleagues from Kharkiv, who was also never forced to speak Ukrainian. It might be probably surprise to you, but neither of them are now speaking how the evil West is at fault for all the **** happening in their country, as you do... Hell even my country has more strict laws for speaking Hungarian/Polish/Ukrainian at the municipality or state level than Ukraine has about Russian language...

Banning any church, which is openly collaborating with a country which is occupying you, is reasonably enough.

EDIT: The Russian speaking teenage girl I was taking care of with my wife, has run away from Doneck Oblast. Her city was no bombarded at the time, but guess what. All of her Russian speaking family, including pro-soviet grandparents evacuated to Krivyi Rih. To the "evil" Ukraine, which "oppressed" them their whole life... They did not think for a second, that they would ever voluntarily escape to Russia...

Edited December 14, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

Not gonna edit it further, but we have experienced also for tankies and vatniks surely very strange things with refugees. In Slovakia, only very few people actually speak Ukrainian language. So the communications with refugees was handled exclusively in Russian language. The only complaints about this, which I have noticed in the last 9 months, were suggestions voiced by Russian speaking Ukrainians, which kindly asked our volunteers to rather rewrite all the Russian language signs and notices to Ukrainian language. And surprise surprise, they submitted this suggestion in Russian language. Surely that was also a sign of how very oppressed they were at home…

Edited December 14, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

9 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

bringing in penalties for speaking Russian (ah yes, I remember well when persecution of Russian speakers was 'Fake News' and would never happen, after Maidan...).

I can't find anything on this, can you hit me with a source?

[Malcador]

13 minutes ago, Make a contract with KP said:

I can't find anything on this, can you hit me with a source?

Maybe related to https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine

"The law aims to revitalize the Ukrainian language and is part of government efforts to reinforce national identity after the fall of the Soviet Union. Some officials called it essential for Ukraine’s national security. Public opinion polls indicate that at least 60 percent of Ukrainians support certain provisions of the law.

Article 25, regarding print media outlets, makes exceptions for certain minority languages, English, and official EU languages, but not for Russian. Ukrainian authorities justify this by referring to the country’s European ambitions and “the century of oppression of … Ukrainian in favor of Russian.”

There are concerns about whether guarantees for minority languages are sufficient. The Venice Commission, the Council of Europe’s top advisory body on constitutional matters, said that several of the law’s articles, including article 25, “failed to strike a fair balance” between promoting the Ukrainian language and safeguarding minorities’ linguistic rights. It stated that “historical oppression of Ukrainian ... may lead to the adoption of positive measures aimed at promoting Ukrainian, but this cannot justify depriving the Russian language and its speakers of the protection granted to other languages…”"

 

18 hours ago, pmp10 said:

When you hear Macron or Scholtz speak on 'new security arrangements' I get the impression they are hinting something more.
Ukraine has no reason to trust another version of Minsk accords, moreover (if the diplomatic leaks are trustworthy) no country would agree to guarantee their security during the talks in April.
On the Russian side the demands were to push-back NATO to 1997 status and now claiming parts of Ukraine they don't even control.

I have no idea how they want to square this particular circle but maybe the idea is just to start talking. 

That would be hilarious to see the diplomatic storm if they did that, kicking out half the alliance. I'd always thought the carrot would be Ukraine not in NATO for some number of years if anything.  

6 hours ago, Sarex said:

We are talking about the west right? Or does the middle east not exist? Let's also not forget Kosovo and the ethnic cleansing that Croatia did in their "Oluja" operation that was fully sanctioned by the west.

Who's going to whine about whataboutism to you, you figure ?

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

7 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Maybe related to https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine

"The law aims to revitalize the Ukrainian language and is part of government efforts to reinforce national identity after the fall of the Soviet Union. Some officials called it essential for Ukraine’s national security. Public opinion polls indicate that at least 60 percent of Ukrainians support certain provisions of the law.

Article 25, regarding print media outlets, makes exceptions for certain minority languages, English, and official EU languages, but not for Russian. Ukrainian authorities justify this by referring to the country’s European ambitions and “the century of oppression of … Ukrainian in favor of Russian.”

There are concerns about whether guarantees for minority languages are sufficient. The Venice Commission, the Council of Europe’s top advisory body on constitutional matters, said that several of the law’s articles, including article 25, “failed to strike a fair balance” between promoting the Ukrainian language and safeguarding minorities’ linguistic rights. It stated that “historical oppression of Ukrainian ... may lead to the adoption of positive measures aimed at promoting Ukrainian, but this cannot justify depriving the Russian language and its speakers of the protection granted to other languages…”"

Thanks. That law sounds ****ed and Poroshenko is a ****.

[Sarex]

28 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Who's going to whine about whataboutism to you, you figure ?

My money is on the a guy who think the west walks on water.

[pmp10]

Patriot missiles are in serious consideration for Ukraine.
I admin I didn't see it coming.

Delivery would likely take at least half a year which means US is resigning itself to a long slog. 

[Zoraptor]

4 hours ago, Make a contract with KP said:

I can't find anything on this, can you hit me with a source?

Malc has pretty well covered the law part, guess that leaves...

8 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

That is absolute bull**** Russian propaganda. Russian language was never penalized.

..the law and penalties actually being applied. I doubt the fine levied by the "Commission for the Protection of the State Language" would be considered particularly egregious, but labeling use of Russian as "profane" is certainly indicative of where the commissar wants things to go.

 

[bugarup]

Meanwhile in Russia: dude gets fined by dreaming about Zelensky and posting it on his Insta.

[xzar_monty]

Yet again. This is interesting because it is so far from Ukraine and such an important facility.

 

[BruceVC]

17 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Patriot missiles are in serious consideration for Ukraine.
I admin I didn't see it coming.

Delivery would likely take at least half a year which means US is resigning itself to a long slog. 

Im honestly surprised you thought the West\US wasn't committed to Ukraine?

[Malcador]

Expensive gifts for Christmas.  Guess the Russians will try to focus on those, easier than hunting HIMARS.

[Elerond]

On 12/14/2022 at 4:41 PM, Malcador said:

Maybe related to https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/01/19/new-language-requirement-raises-concerns-ukraine

"The law aims to revitalize the Ukrainian language and is part of government efforts to reinforce national identity after the fall of the Soviet Union. Some officials called it essential for Ukraine’s national security. Public opinion polls indicate that at least 60 percent of Ukrainians support certain provisions of the law.

Article 25, regarding print media outlets, makes exceptions for certain minority languages, English, and official EU languages, but not for Russian. Ukrainian authorities justify this by referring to the country’s European ambitions and “the century of oppression of … Ukrainian in favor of Russian.”

There are concerns about whether guarantees for minority languages are sufficient. The Venice Commission, the Council of Europe’s top advisory body on constitutional matters, said that several of the law’s articles, including article 25, “failed to strike a fair balance” between promoting the Ukrainian language and safeguarding minorities’ linguistic rights. It stated that “historical oppression of Ukrainian ... may lead to the adoption of positive measures aimed at promoting Ukrainian, but this cannot justify depriving the Russian language and its speakers of the protection granted to other languages…”"

At least Russia acts fast, as they soldiers were already securing rights of Russian speaking Ukrainian's just month after law was introduced

[Elerond]

2 hours ago, Malcador said:

Expensive gifts for Christmas.  Guess the Russians will try to focus on those, easier than hunting HIMARS.

Russia does not have dedicated anti-air counter force, so their result maybe even less impressive as their HIMARS hunting. As anti-air platforms are usually in deep in enemy territory (especially long range systems like patriot) where only air force is able to operate with some efficiently and anti-air systems are designed to counter and destroy air force units. So it is quite suicidal job for anyone doing it.

[Malcador]

12 minutes ago, Elerond said:

Russia does not have dedicated anti-air counter force, so their result maybe even less impressive as their HIMARS hunting. As anti-air platforms are usually in deep in enemy territory (especially long range systems like patriot) where only air force is able to operate with some efficiently and anti-air systems are designed to counter and destroy air force units. So it is quite suicidal job for anyone doing it.

Well the HIM part of HIMARS is what makes them hard to hunt, I don't think the Patriots are as mobile and also are defensive so less proactive so to speak.  Probably wouldn't be effective to try to rush it with drones or missiles but would be an easier attempt.

Economist had a bunch of interview with Ukrainian officials and such, this one was interesting

An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces (archive)

"TE: What do you make of Russia’s mobilisation?

VZ: Russian mobilisation has worked. It is not true that their problems are so dire that these people will not fight. They will. A tsar tells them to go to war, and they go to war. I’ve studied the history of the two Chechen wars—it was the same. They may not be that well equipped, but they still present a problem for us. We estimate that they have a reserve of 1.2m-1.5m people… The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops. I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv"

Not sure if the talk of this second offensive is just more scaremongering for the wishlist.

Edited December 15, 2022 by Malcador

[BruceVC]

53 minutes ago, Malcador said:

 

Not sure if the talk of this second offensive is just more scaremongering for the wishlist.

You famously cynical, why ? 

But Im sure its both, its both a  real Ukrainian concern and its fear mongering  to  ensure Western\US aid doesnt stop 

And I dont blame the Ukrainians  because there war effort is largely  dependant on continuous military aid 

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

Not sure if the talk of this second offensive is just more scaremongering for the wishlist.

Russia has not yet deployed majority of their conscripts to Ukraine.
The questions are more of 'when will they start' and 'how far they will get'. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by pmp10

[Gorth]

4 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Russia has not yet deployed majority of their conscripts to Ukraine.
The questions are more of 'when will they start' and 'how far they will get'. 

Expectation.... as far as their initial push against Kiev from the north?

During WWII the Soviet army needed enough conscripts to survive for long enough to eventually build a core of semi competent troops - like the kind that spend more time firing bullets at the enemy than pillaging and raping the local population wherever they went. They still did that of course, but they got better at the fighting part of over the years.

[Malcador]

5 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Russia has not yet deployed majority of their conscripts to Ukraine.
The questions are more of 'when will they start' and 'how far they will get'. 

Seems like a bad idea, but guess we'll see. Ukraine is pretty thin in the north as well, granted is just from OSINT types that are pro-UA.

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, Gorth said:

Expectation.... as far as their initial push against Kiev from the north?

During WWII the Soviet army needed enough conscripts to survive for long enough to eventually build a core of semi competent troops - like the kind that spend more time firing bullets at the enemy than pillaging and raping the local population wherever they went. They still did that of course, but they got better at the fighting part of over the years.

With conscript forces there is no telling what they are capable of. 
Both on battlefield and off. 

But the initial 100k or so seems to have stabilized the lines and helped cover the retreat from Kherson.
So chances are that next 200k would make some gains. 

[Gorth]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

With conscript forces there is no telling what they are capable of. 
Both on battlefield and off. 

But the initial 100k or so seems to have stabilized the lines and helped cover the retreat from Kherson.
So chances are that next 200k would make some gains. 

...and the next 100k-300k might indeed make some gains. The next 500k+ would make it a war of attrition that few countries can keep up with. Russia can take 3/1 casualty rates and still bleed Ukraine dry. A year ago I would have thought it a stupid approach. But I would also have thought invading Ukraine a stupid idea about a year ago. Some things and situations just defy logic.

 

Edit: Unconfirmed rumours have it that close to a million conscripts are being whipped into obedience. Sounds like Putin is going to repeat the English and their brilliant strategy at the Somme offensive.

[Sarex]

16 hours ago, Gorth said:

During WWII the Soviet army needed enough conscripts to survive for long enough to eventually build a core of semi competent troops - like the kind that spend more time firing bullets at the enemy than pillaging and raping the local population wherever they went. They still did that of course, but they got better at the fighting part of over the years.

That was done by every army that was winning and in enemy territory. Part and parcel of wars.

Any war is a stupid idea.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Sarex