Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[Elerond]

33 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

It was meant as a joke, no one serious thought NZ would make a significant impact. The US and EU stockpiles per CNBC, thats another case

Old stocks have limit, so at some point they will run out, but situation is not better on Russian side.

As in most intensive days of their invasion, Russian artillery shoot more ammunition than Russia produces has typically produced in two years. So even though Russia has vast storages they don't have capacity to use such force for long especially when Ukraine targets their ammunition storages.

So as war continues there will be inevitably a point where new weapons and ammunition needs to be produced and peace time production capacity needs to be increased if participants want to keep same intensity

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Ah yes, the Russians. Their nuclear delivery vehicles have all fallen apart, but they can put limpet mines on underwater cables and have them detonate remotely years later. Truly they are exactly as competent or incompetent as needed for whatever story is being told.

"

Its really not that complicated for Russian special forces to damage the pipeline, we have numerous examples of military failures and incompetence in Ukraine but that doesnt mean they cant sabotage the pipeline

They have successfully assassinated  people in foreign countries  so they clearly not all incompetent 

Edited September 28, 2022 by BruceVC

[kanisatha]

5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Interesting take on the nuclear question in the war. I wonder what @kanisatha makes of this.

This was particularly interesting: "I believe Putin’s tactical nuclear weapons are unusable. Even if their vehicles do work, the minute they turn their engines on to move they will be picked up by US and NATO intelligence." I would have thought that Russia was extremely keen to keep its weapons in prime condition, but that was before the war. The war has demonstrated how poorly managed most things are; it's actually been very hard to believe the stuff you see, when it comes to poor management. However, we obviously have no proof that what this guy says is correct (when it comes to the vehicles working or not).

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.html

Nuclear weapons experts have been saying this about Russia's nukes for quite some time, and including back in the Soviet days. But ultimately, even if 99 out of a hundred of Russia's nukes "fail" for whatever reason, what does that matter if one works? This is why it was believed the Soviets built up such a huge arsenal, and had dozens of warheads targetted on each US nuke asset, because they themselves did not trust the techinal efficacy of their own systems.

But, relatedly, one awesome silver lining to this war on the US/NATO side is that our battlefield intelligence systems have proven to be excellent, both technically and operationally, specifically US/NATO electronic and signals intelligence, warfare, and countermeasures capabilities.

[HoonDing]

At times like these you really wish Trump was still president.

[Malcador]

5 minutes ago, HoonDing said:

At times like these you really wish Trump was still president.

Driving back the Russians with F-35s in Chinese livery

[Mamoulian War]

 

 

[pmp10]

4 hours ago, Lexx said:

I saw speculations that there must be 1 bomb that failed to detonate, since there are 4 pipelines, but we only had 3 explosions.

Also possible that this one line was deliberately left intact.
That remaining NS2 line can still supply Germany.

I bet that if other pipelines are stopped this will be the first one Gazprom will be willing to restart. 
At a price of course. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by pmp10

[Mamoulian War]

A little bit of insight on how Gazprom handles things in Siberia in the last few years
 

 

[InsaneCommander]

3 hours ago, HoonDing said:

At times like these you really wish Trump was still president.

Trump Has Seen Enough: Offers to Negotiate Peace Deal Between Russia, Ukraine

[Mamoulian War]

18 more HIMARS going to Ukraine as a response to mobilization and “referenda”.

[Malcador]

21 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

18 more HIMARS going to Ukraine as a response to mobilization and “referenda”.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-government-and-politics-746ae5a7113e9bb78562ee3a943c9260

"Since the funding is for contracts for weapons and equipment, it is aimed at helping Ukraine secure its longer-term defense needs. It could take a year or two for Ukraine to get the systems. The U.S. has used Pentagon drawdown authority to provide weapons more immediately, and another announcement for that Defense Department aid is expected early next week."

A year or two seems rather long.

[Gfted1]

Whoa, thats more than enough to completely take over Russia! We better slow down before they get all nukey. 

[Sarex]

Do wonder if they take this as an excuse to destroy the Norwegian pipeline.

[Zoraptor]

7 hours ago, Elerond said:

New Zealand probably isn't best example considering their official equipment numbers. If arms stocked somewhere they didn't have much equipment to give in first place. 

The NZDF has to think carefully before firing off a single Javelin in training. Our biggest contribution by far is the intelligence and training people we've sent over (~200).

7 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

In terms of rhetoric, your comment falls flat on its face because of stuff "spend most of their time" (like, what?), "all Russia's equipment is a joke" and "suddenly deciding", because you're both being incredibly arrogant and referring to things that don't exist (at least not on this forum).

lol. You don't half take things absolutely literally when it suits.

In terms of the 'just asking questions/ posting articles' stuff I'm actually pretty glad that CNN interview was posted, and have no problem with that. The guy ought to be an expert, fair enough posting his views. He's either not though, or the interview has been editorialised significantly, or he's deliberately being inaccurate. I tend to go for the first because first impressions from the kiloton gaffe- and the generalised suspicion that brits with double barreled names got their job because they went to Eton or Harrow, not from any expertise.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Mamoulian War]

21 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Do wonder if they take this as an excuse to destroy the Norwegian pipeline.

Some Norwegians already demanded that NATO to say, that destroying their pipelines would be an automatic Article 5.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Mamoulian War]

An article taken from BBC - interview with Russian soldier who was in the Bucha as well, and how he left the front few months later. Currently being recalled to the front again.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/28/7369511/

[Mamoulian War]

Very interesting interview woth the only Russian diplomat, who stepped down in protest against invasion of Ukraine, with some insights into Kremlin background. By Deutsche Welle.

 

[xzar_monty]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

In terms of the 'just asking questions/ posting articles' stuff I'm actually pretty glad that CNN interview was posted, and have no problem with that. The guy ought to be an expert, fair enough posting his views. He's either not though, or the interview has been editorialised significantly, or he's deliberately being inaccurate. I tend to go for the first because first impressions from the kiloton gaffe- and the generalised suspicion that brits with double barreled names got their job because they went to Eton or Harrow, not from any expertise.

I would vote for the second, given that I've been involved in journalism since the late 1980s and have seen an awful lot of very weird stuff(*). (Some of it is likely to make you suspicious of essentially the whole journalistic enterprise.) The first is a serious possibility, too, and your suspicion doesn't sound entirely unconvincing, either. I wouldn't be surprised if I saw his actual interview and heard him say, correctly, TNT, whereas CNN printed dynamite (I didn't go back and check but I think this was one of your corrections).

 

Elsewhere: very interesting phone call intercepts. Not surprising, really, but definitely very interesting: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/28/world/europe/russian-soldiers-phone-calls-ukraine.html?searchResultPosition=1

 

(*) At this point I dug out my Devil's Dictionary and checked whether Ambrose Bierce has a superb definition of journalism, underlining its inaccuracies. No he doesn't (have any).

Edited September 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[pmp10]

10 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

18 more HIMARS going to Ukraine as a response to mobilization and “referenda”.

If that is the whole response then not even US is willing to violate the no-tanks taboo.

[xzar_monty]

Of course it is not the whole response.

Interestingly, Russia appears to be postponing both the joining of the "four new areas" into Russia and the closing of its own borders. A Kremlin source is quoted as saying, "It is difficult to close the borders now. If it was done, thousands of security troops would be needed and frustrated people might try to get through, anyway. At the moment, we don't have enough security forces for this." (This from Meduza, reliability unknown -- but surely we'll see soon.)

Btw, according to Russian propaganda, 99.92 percent of voters in Donetsk wanted to join Russia. Sure!

 

EDIT, later: Very interesting new intelligence. 80% of Russian troops close to the Baltic countries and Finland have been taken to Ukraine. They're really going for it, and somewhat short on troops. And once again this demonstrates that outside propaganda, Russia has absolutely no fear of any NATO offensives.

Edited September 29, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Lexx]

Wagner freeing prisoners for money now. Hilarious.

 

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Lexx said:

Wagner freeing prisoners for money now. Hilarious.

 

I dont expect anything less from Wagner, they would do  anything for money 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, xzar_monty said:

 

 

EDIT, later: Very interesting new intelligence. 80% of Russian troops close to the Baltic countries and Finland have been taken to Ukraine. They're really going for it, and somewhat short on troops. And once again this demonstrates that outside propaganda, Russia has absolutely no fear or any NATO offensives.

Agreed and the fact that NATO has ever said they wanted to attack Russia also helps, its just more evidence of the  "3 N lies "

And yet you still have people believing and repeating " Russia was provoked " 

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, pmp10 said:

If that is the whole response then not even US is willing to violate the no-tanks taboo.

No, tanks is not much taboo, than logistic and mechanical issue. Poland was able to give Ukraine 200 tanks, because they were all Soviet Ear tanks, and Ukraine has already very big repair/mechanical/service infrastructure, to take care of them. On the other hand, giving few hundred NATO manufactured tanks would require not only training for riding it, but also training for servicing them, and in many cases, that would need thenpresence of NATO trainers in Ukraine. Few dozens HIMARS, CEZARs, Zuzanas, or PH2000 can be serviced outside of UA. Which is already done in Poland and Slovakia, and most likely Romania as well. For hundreds of tanks, IMO that would be bordering with unsustainability for logistics, unless as I’ve said, NATO people would be present in Ukraine. Which could be seen as direct involvement and escallation. I bet, that NATO is already working on solving that, but unless Russia would cross the red line tomorrow, I do not see to happen that overnight.

Edited September 29, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[xzar_monty]

According to the Kremlin, there is NO postponement and the four new areas will be a part of Russia tomorrow. The Red Square is already being prepared for an announcement (rather shabbily, it looks like, but of course it's not ready yet).