Ukraine Conflict - "Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed"

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, BruceVC said:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/europe/russia-protests-partial-mobilization-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

Only in Russia would you find this, some of the anti-war protestors arrested are being not being jailed but are being immediately drafted into the army as punishment and will be going to Ukraine 

A great way to build morale 

 

 

This one is pretty hillarious though

 

 

[Gorth]

Continuation from previous thread...

 

[pmp10]

Ukraine is focusing on getting western tanks.
Strange priority given the circumstances.

They must be desperate to break that political limitation on armaments.
If Russian mobilization can't get them at least Leopard 1s they are in serious trouble. 

Edited September 23, 2022 by pmp10

[Elerond]

They have easier time to get anything but German tanks. Germany's current political atmosphere is such that they don't make any fast arms deliveries, as they go back and forth of arms they already have decided to deliver.

Although most EU countries don't tell what aid they give Ukraine and how much and when.

 

I saw in Ukrainians tweeting pictures of hundreds of Finnish made armored personnel carries (XA-180 and XA-185)  that I used to drive in Finnish Defense forces and they were equipped with all sort equipment that revealed that they could not have come from anywhere than Finland's arms storages, but officially Finland has not given them to Ukraine. 

[Mamoulian War]

Germany might be pretty slow in many cases, but they are reimbursing the ex-warsaw pact armory for all the arms, which they deliver to Ukraine. Example being, 30 pieces of ex-soviet equipment from Slovakia, for exchange with 15 Leopards. If Germany would not reimburse Slovakia with this deal, we would not be able to donate such a big amount of vehicles to Ukraine.

[Gorth]

That reminds me of one of those old Gulf War memes about war contributions... The US brandishes its sword and yells 'Charge!'. Germany brandishes its credit card and yells 'Charge!'. Old, but still applicable

[Gorgon]

They want to have an ace left to play, and they also don't have that many leopards.  Everybody wants military hardware after decades of defense cuts, these things take a long time to make. 

[Malcador]

Hitting Odessa of all places with the Iranian drones.

[pmp10]

1 hour ago, Gorgon said:

They want to have an ace left to play, and they also don't have that many leopards.  

If that was it they wouldn't need to stop that transfer of Spanish Leo 2s to Ukraine.

[Gorgon]

Spare parts i would guess. They would also have to refit in Poland, given that there are no support contractors in Ukraine. That's really not feasible for a tank. 

[Gorgon]

So, really it would be Leopards + support staff. Meaning European troops/contractors in Ukraine. 

[HoonDing]

I thought Based Russians would jump at the chance of taking the Woke West down a peg.

[Darkpriest]

There is little doubt, that this war doesn't go according to the Kremlin's plans. It was made unwinnable when the Kiev was a target. Should Russians focus all efforts from the start on the belt they still control now, we would probably be already after the conflict. 

 

Now, in economic terms, the war is more destructive to Western economies than it is to the Russian one. 

As in clockwork (end of Q3 beginning of Q4), we are about to experience a global crisis and a last hurrah of the USD. 

FED is trapped and too late to the game, and has to raise rates. Economies are still weak, EU is in shambles on its own wish with all the policies and sanctions, and Truss is probably the worst choice UK could have made after Boris (todays plan just confirms that) 

For those more interested in what's goin on, read this summary. It's simple enough for people who have at least some interest in economy and markets. 

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crash

For non-ZH readers, free BBG article via yahoo -> 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-risks-breaking-point-201642016.html

Now, in terms of impact on the EU, you will see more and more 'nationalists' coming to power, especially at the time of economic crisis and with more migrants inflows. 

Even Sweden turned right, Italy is about to go as well. France avoided that barely, due to bad timing of election and previous connections to Putin. 

Russia will send those conscripts to secure land after referendums. They want to hold south belt to Crimea as a status quo and their war loot. 

UA topic is about to vanish from main points of media interests. Give it until the end of year tops. In Europe, economic woes will take the front pages. (inflation, crashed currencies, stocks, unafordable energy and heating prices, unafortable food and poor food security outlook for 2023 - see this years poor global harvest data and high cost of production and processing of food in EU). Green policies are now dead, as Europe spends more and more on ship freight of energy resources, which contributes to more emissions and is probably also not enough to create security in the energy. 

Oil price caps just means that there will be less oil for the 'West' or EU will be buying resold Russian Oil from China/India same as they are doing now with LNG. It may be even enough to brinng back oil prices above 100, something that Sauds would love to see, as oil now crashed on global recession fears

 

Anyway too many topics to write about

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Mamoulian War]

What a interesting coincidence. As soon, as I have read the Darkpriest post, the YT noticed me, that the Austrian Army just made a video whcih speaks also about articles like the ones, he mentions in his posts 
 

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[HoonDing]

I bet those great patriots from Nashi likely were the first to flee to Georgia and Mongolia with their tail between their legs.

[Mamoulian War]

I’ll just leave it here. Reasoning for 300k - 1mio mobilization. Feel free to call him on the bull**** bellow 

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[pmp10]

A good RUSI commentary on western response to mobilization.
That response will be a even better indication of the future than the handling of upcoming energy squeeze. 

[Mamoulian War]

Interview with two of leading officers about recent Kharkiv offensive. The wounded colonel says, they were successful around Balaklia, despited being outnumbered approximately 3:1

 

[kanisatha]

With respect to the mobilization numbers, I read somewhere that the Russian government itself has said that 300,000 is the number of conscripts eligible for mobilization (former service members called back to active duty) under the announced plan, but that they expect only about 10% of them will end up being usable for combat duty.

[Lexx]

But are they even checking that? So far what I've heard is that people basically get loaded onto buses and driven to wherever. Is there any medical examination at all? Look at the photos and videos of the people that are being drafted ... this is not "normal" (whatever that is, though).

The way I see it, 300k is probably their end goal, but to get to that number, they have to actually draft even more people, since they expect a lot to not make it. Like, what's the point of drafting people who can't even walk.. you don't want those in your army.

[Malcador]

Consider you're not seeing literally everything, though. Seen Telegrams of regular looking people in decent spirits, others with trash or very downbeat people.

The video of one guy with a rusted AKM is funny, though.

All said, probably just too late.

[bugarup]

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

With respect to the mobilization numbers, I read somewhere that the Russian government itself has said that 300,000 is the number of conscripts eligible for mobilization (former service members called back to active duty) under the announced plan, but that they expect only about 10% of them will end up being usable for combat duty.

[ShadySands]

I've also heard the real number of Russians to be mobilized is going to be much higher than 300k from my wife's Russian family. Their support is faltering a bit right about now.

[bugarup]

There's a rumour that the actual draft number is 1,2 million and constant information about draftees who shouldn't be eligible supports this theory. It also makes sense for something as chaotic and thoroughly corrupt as Russia to cast a net for 1,2 million to catch 300 thousand. Anyway, I'm thinking that if this mobilization doesn't make Russians do something about their pathetic yet dangerous regime, nothing will.

Edited September 24, 2022 by bugarup

[Zoraptor]

Lower estimate --> 30k

Higher estimate --> 1.2mn

Not really worth even speculating with a forty fold difference. You can say some things for sure though, like the timing is rubbish. Quick mobilisation --> just in time for Rasputitsa. Slower mobilisation --> just in time for winter. Only thing that is for absolute sure is that each side will say that the other's draftees are angry and don't want to fight.