Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[Mamoulian War]

 

[HoonDing]

Kadyrov will make Russia great again.

[Lexx]

Can't wait for all the Kadyrov people to get blown to bits. I had completely forgotten what pieces of **** they are until two days ago when I saw a video of them forcing a civilian to pick up some rubble.. without telling him it was mined. After the explosion they were laughing as if this was the funniest **** they've ever seen.

Edited September 12, 2022 by Lexx

[Mamoulian War]

Little bit of speculation. The deepstate map, which I consider as one of the most accurate maps, already have some grey zones extended behind Oskil river. The fact is, if Russia does not have defesive lines already established in Luhansk Oblast, they are pretty precarious situation, as most of the retreating forces from Kharkiv Oblast are not combat ready anymore, and it can take a lot of time for them to get consolidated and regrouped in working BTGs…

https://deepstatemap.live/en#8/49.654/37.336

[Malcador]

2 hours ago, HoonDing said:

Kadyrov will make Russia great again.

And nuke us all, probably

[Malcador]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-signals-major-weapons-request-for-long-term-offensive-against-russia-11662998386

Relying on someone else's copying as I can't get past the paywall right now.  Wonder what the payback for all this kit will be.

A document shared with U.S. lawmakers and viewed by The Wall Street Journal lists dozens of types of armaments the Kyiv government says it will need to press its offensive into 2023.

Among them are the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, which has a range of about 190 miles. The Biden administration, which has dispatched more than $15 billion worth of weapons and other security assistance to Ukraine, has declined to provide that system over concerns Ukraine could use it to strike Russian territory and spark a wider conflict with the West.

Ukraine’s list of requirements for “offensive operations” includes 29 types of weapon systems and ammunition. Among them are tanks, drones, artillery systems; more Harpoon antiship missiles; and 2,000 missiles for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or Himars, which the U.S. began providing earlier this year.

 

[BruceVC]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-signals-major-weapons-request-for-long-term-offensive-against-russia-11662998386

Relying on someone else's copying as I can't get past the paywall right now.  Wonder what the payback for all this kit will be.

 

 

I imagine its for Crimea and ending  the Russian occupation  and the US\West gets what they always  wanted to achieve. An end to Putins hegemony and militancy?

[Mamoulian War]

Approximate cost of captured/destroyed Russian equipment during 1 week long Kharkiv offensive is estimated by Forbes at almost 700 million USD.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/12/7367169/

[kanisatha]

According to US defense sources, the UA is operationally using only five tactical brigade groups in their offensive in the east. And they confirm that US Special Operations Command is relaying tactical battlefield intel on the Russians in real-time to the UA. So this is why my guess is the US saw the redeployment of RU forces from Khar'kiv to Kherson (which included RU spetsnaz and airborne units which are the last remaining Tier 1 RU units), and gave UA real-time intel on exactly where to attack on the eastern front. The UA in turn has been excellent in acting very fast on the intel they're receiving, and being able to make very rapid battlefield changes to their attack plans, because the US is literally telling them in real-time exactly where RU units are located and the strength of those RU units.

Furthermore, read this article about how awesome the triple-7 has been in UA hands; way more of a game-changer than the much-more widely discussed HiMARS systems. The UA is now in the position of teaching us and NATO how to effectively fight a modern conventional war in an urban setting.

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/the-m777-is-deadly-in-ukrainian-hands-but-even-deadlier-in-americas/

[kanisatha]

22 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

Approximate cost of captured/destroyed Russian equipment during 1 week long Kharkiv offensive is estimated by Forbes at almost 700 million USD.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/12/7367169/

Yup, this is the biggest part of the disaster for RU forces in the east right now: that their forces are abandoning most heavy equipment in their frenzy to escape UA encirclement. Tanks, IFVs, artillery, rocket launchers, SAMs, everything being abandoned as they flee, which is not only a boon to the UA but also will make it very difficult for Russia to reconstitute new units from the remnants of their defeated forces. Bad enough they're deploying reserve units with untrained conscripts, now those conscripts will not have decent equipment either even while the equipment of the UA is only getting better and better.

[alanschu]

10 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

18 local politicians from Moscow and St. Petersburg are calling for Putin to step down, claiming that he and his regime are hurting the future of Russia and its citizens.

Not going to do anything, except perhaps end these 18 people in serious trouble, but given the state the country is in, I would not ignore this sort of bravery, either.

My first thought was "I predict 18 car explosions in the nearish future." Excepting of course some of them carpooling.

(In all seriousness I'd rather hear about stuff like this than not. That said I'll remain cautiously optimistic and not hope for too much to come as a result of this, as it seems you have).

[Malcador]

I guess somewhat related to all of this

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1569487694077771776

Edited September 13, 2022 by Malcador

[xzar_monty]

12 hours ago, Lexx said:

Can't wait for all the Kadyrov people to get blown to bits. I had completely forgotten what pieces of **** they are until two days ago when I saw a video of them forcing a civilian to pick up some rubble.. without telling him it was mined. After the explosion they were laughing as if this was the funniest **** they've ever seen.

You can extend that to the Russian army (or Russia?), with some very minor reservations. Early on in the war, the Red Cross and Russia made a deal about a corridor that civilians could be evacuated through. It was mined by Russians.

https://www.businessinsider.com/land-mines-proposed-ukraine-evacuations-humanitarian-corridor-red-cross-2022-3?r=US&IR=T

[xzar_monty]

7 hours ago, alanschu said:

My first thought was "I predict 18 car explosions in the nearish future." Excepting of course some of them carpooling.

I was thinking along those same lines. But then, should this spread enough, there are not going to be enough bombs, so things may change. Let us have some hope for that.

Zelensky's rethoric is fairly strong, and not bad at all, in his latest "address" to Russia:

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/12/europe/zelensky-message-kharkiv-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html

[Malcador]

People getting a bit carried away with the idea that Putin's downfall is soon. Will be amusing if the next guy turns out to be even worse.

[Lexx]

I agree. Just replacing Putin will likely not change a lot.

[xzar_monty]

And therein lies the biggest problem: there is no democratic movement or even a semblance of it behind Putin, just waiting for its opportunity to rise.

There's likely to be a power struggle which could go all the way up to civil war. The nature of the power struggle is likely to be dictated, at least to some extent, by the way Putin falls (and I don't mean whether it's from the 3rd floor or the 4th). But then, Putin hasn't fallen. The implosion of his regime could be quick, though. Let's see.

[BruceVC]

20 minutes ago, Malcador said:

People getting a bit carried away with the idea that Putin's downfall is soon. Will be amusing if the next guy turns out to be even worse.

I dont know, its hard to think of someone much worse than  Putin. Normally when autocratic leaders who endup weakening there country get replaced the person who comes after them  is better, not much necessarily much better but definitely better because he has to change things and " fix " the issues that caused his predecessor to be replaced

Look at Zimbabwe and Venezuela? The new leaders are better than the previous autocrats  

[BruceVC]

12 minutes ago, Lexx said:

I agree. Just replacing Putin will likely not change a lot.

Why do you think that? We first have to identify what the issues are and replacing the " strongman leader"  will he a very good first step. Putin is a huge part of the  political policies and direction Russia has been going in, a new leader could immediately allow people to protest without being arrested and stop shutting down private sector media houses?

Those are just quick wins but some of the change that could be implemented to improve things 

[BruceVC]

8 hours ago, kanisatha said:

According to US defense sources, the UA is operationally using only five tactical brigade groups in their offensive in the east. And they confirm that US Special Operations Command is relaying tactical battlefield intel on the Russians in real-time to the UA. So this is why my guess is the US saw the redeployment of RU forces from Khar'kiv to Kherson (which included RU spetsnaz and airborne units which are the last remaining Tier 1 RU units), and gave UA real-time intel on exactly where to attack on the eastern front. The UA in turn has been excellent in acting very fast on the intel they're receiving, and being able to make very rapid battlefield changes to their attack plans, because the US is literally telling them in real-time exactly where RU units are located and the strength of those RU units.

Furthermore, read this article about how awesome the triple-7 has been in UA hands; way more of a game-changer than the much-more widely discussed HiMARS systems. The UA is now in the position of teaching us and NATO how to effectively fight a modern conventional war in an urban setting.

https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/the-m777-is-deadly-in-ukrainian-hands-but-even-deadlier-in-americas/

What  an interesting read, amazing how effective the m777 is. Clever weaponry and a godsend in the war in Ukraine 

[xzar_monty]

17 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Why do you think that? We first have to identify what the issues are and replacing the " strongman leader"  will he a very good first step. Putin is a huge part of the  political policies and direction Russia has been going in, a new leader could immediately allow people to protest without being arrested and stop shutting down private sector media houses?

Look at the history of Russia. You will find almost nothing that suggests things will change for the better. There have been two very brief glimpses of light in Russia, the most recent of which was about 30 years ago and lasted but a moment.

[BruceVC]

9 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Look at the history of Russia. You will find almost nothing that suggests things will change for the better. There have been two very brief glimpses of light in Russia, the most recent of which was about 30 years ago and lasted but a moment.

True but they had leaders who were well meaning but didnt address the core problems and didnt understand what Russia needed to become a proper and sustainable Democracy,  like Yeltsin 

But that doesnt mean the next leader or government wont make immediate changes, like ending the invasion of Ukraine 

But I do think we a long way off from seeing Putin removed or stepping down but  the discontent is growing 

[Mamoulian War]

1 hour ago, Malcador said:

People getting a bit carried away with the idea that Putin's downfall is soon. Will be amusing if the next guy turns out to be even worse.

People are also not aware, that currently the most blame for ****ed up invasion, is on the shoulders of Shoigu. Putin already works on getting out of blame for this. So unless there will be more than these 18 deputies, he might still be save.

That could also change with the fall of Kherson, because as kanisatha has mentioned, the most elite Russian forces and a lot of FSB is stationed there.

[Mamoulian War]

According to one newspaper in Slovakia, there is information, that 84 deputies already signed the demand for Putin’s resignation. As much I would like to believe it, this newspaper is in my eyes not amongst the most credible one. So we’ll see. Would be big breakthrough if that would be true…

[xzar_monty]

15 minutes ago, Mamoulian War said:

According to one newspaper in Slovakia, there is information, that 84 deputies already signed the demand for Putin’s resignation. As much I would like to believe it, this newspaper is in my eyes not amongst the most credible one. So we’ll see. Would be big breakthrough if that would be true…

If you just google "84 signed Putin resignation" or something like that, you'll find more hits -- but not from sources that I'd trust. Mostly they are from sources unknown to me, not from sources I would say are rubbish.