Ukraine Conflict - "There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare"

[Mamoulian War]

A brief summary of what I was talking about few post above on what happened during the last day and half in Kharkiv region…

Ukraine took more area in a single day, than Russia since the fall of Lysychansk…

 

[Mamoulian War]

And someone translated one of the Girkin’s/Strelkov’s recent Tweets in the wake of the Kharkiv Oblast situation  

 

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Malcador]

So let's take bets on when this ends. I say November.

[rjshae]

I wonder what the impact of rasputitisa will be this Fall? Things may start to "bog down" when that arrives.

[xzar_monty]

2 hours ago, rjshae said:

I wonder what the impact of rasputitisa will be this Fall? Things may start to "bog down" when that arrives.

Does Ukraine have proper rasputitsa in the fall? I really don't know. There are areas where it happens both in the spring and in the fall, but I am not sure about Ukraine. Of course, it is much more common in the spring.

[xzar_monty]

8 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Really? Companies do this sort of thing all the time, even ones that aren't state owned. Try asking DPRK/ Iran/ Venezuela or, well, Russia about whether western companies do this sort of stuff normally. The US Instructed its chip makers not to sell AI chips to China just last week for example.

All the time? Really?

Ok, point me to three (3) Western companies whose PR departments have taken the trouble to make a sort-of promotional video whose sole purpose is to mock the (supposed / possible) plight of its former customers. I'd love to see the videos, too.

The US instructing its chip makers not to sell is not what I was talking about, nor was harsh words around a negotiation table. There's nothing unusual about that, I agree.

[BruceVC]

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

So let's take bets on when this ends. I say November.

Interesting question but what do you define as " when this ends ", do you mean the current Ukrainian offensive?

Also are we certain what its objective is ?

[xzar_monty]

Lavrov, by the way, has been remarkably quiet for quite some time now -- or perhaps the media hasn't bothered to quote him. I am not trying to insinuate anything about his health, but given how vocal he was in the earlier parts of the war, he has essentially disappeared from view. Could be a perspective thing, though.

[BruceVC]

29 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

Lavrov, by the way, has been remarkably quiet for quite some time now -- or perhaps the media hasn't bothered to quote him. I am not trying to insinuate anything about his health, but given how vocal he was in the earlier parts of the war, he has essentially disappeared from view. Could be a perspective thing, though.

He has been unusually quiet? Or  maybe it is just because  the media lost interest in his endless spin and propaganda because it is pointless listening to Russian spokesmen who just repeat the same hyperbole 

[Elerond]

8 hours ago, Malcador said:

So let's take bets on when this ends. I say November.

Ukraine's military command isn't that optimist they estimated that war will continue at least to 2024 in current course

[Mamoulian War]

@Darkpriest and all other, worried about EU situation in winter.

I offer you a "little" counter to the ZeroHedge arguments, about how bad the winter will be. The hard data suggests, that the winter gas issue for the EU was already solved on August 31. And even in the case, that EU will not try to save the gas usage at all and Russia will completely stop all gas exports to EU It will cost a lot, but the funny interesting thing, that I did not knew is, that current gas price in EU is only 40% higher than in September 2021, and that we are 20% lower today from the maximum price in mid-August

https://www.facebook.com/databezpatosu

The google translate:

"HORROR, SCARY, DISASTER, PANIC, ANXIETY, CRISIS (written by Ivan Bošňák)
️We had it here for the last 2 years and it was called a pandemic. Absolutely negative connotations everywhere (except Sweden). Politicians took the helm and "saved" us.
️ Then came the economic crisis, predictions of the unemployed, declines, recessions and bankruptcies everywhere. Politicians printed incredible amounts of money on the machines at the ECB and were very surprised when inflation soared in a way that only their parents can remember.
️Now we have Russia's aggression in Ukraine and the lack of energy and the madness continues, while few see the solutions and almost no one reads the data.

We will try to bring some peace into your homes. We offer 2 links to read excellent analytical articles and charts:
https://www.icis.com/explore/ and https://www.bruegel.org/
No, the war in Ukraine is not to blame for high energy prices. Russia has been playing with the price of gas for 3 years, if not 12, and thus a year ago the price of gas was only 40% lower. And it wasn't a war. The fluctuating gas supplies from Russia and its unreliability have mainly been dealt with by the EU over the past 12 months:
1) From dominance of 35%, Russia got to 10% share of gas imports to the EU
2) In Germany, the Gazprom reservoir with a capacity of 8 billion m3 was nationalized, and instead of being "empty" last winter, there are now 5 billion m3 and in the near future it will be full to 8 billion m3
3) There are already almost 90 billion m3 in reservoirs in the EU (and we have been hearing this for 6 months about continuous problems with gas from Russia). Very likely, thanks to the warm weather, the EU will reach close to 100 billion m3 within 4-5 weeks, and maybe even fill up to a maximum of 106 billion m3 in October.
The EU has set a goal of filling the reservoirs to 80% by November 1. Without fanfare, this goal was met on August 31. Germany later set a 95% target for November 1st and that would push all of Europe to 84% by November 1st. We will be there this weekend and not on November 1st. It is a super success despite the lousy Russian gas supplies. You can find detailed data on the current situation of storage capacity on our website:
https://databezpatosu.sk/category/zemny-plyn/
Today, Slovakia is 80% full and we are the leader in Europe, we have high stocks (status), but relatively low supplies (inflow).
WHY IS NOBODY REPORTING SUCCESS?
Politicians love when they can save people and spend their money on it in good faith and regulate everything possible that they would not be allowed to do in normal stable times. Just look at the nonsense about the nationalization of SE in our country. They don't understand data, they don't understand trends, but they embark on adventures that inevitably end badly.
WHERE IS THE PRICE OF GAS TODAY
Of course, the price of gas is crazy. These are spot prices, but also future deliveries in the short future. We are 40% higher than last September, and in mid-August this year we were 11-15 times higher than before Covid.
But NO ONE told us and you that we are 20% lower TODAY from the maximum price in mid-August and the price is literally flying down, also due to the falling price of oil. Today Brent was at USD 78, which is a decrease of 35% compared to the maximum in June at USD 120. Let's keep our fingers crossed.
WINTER FORECAST
Large analytical houses can predict, based on averages from previous years, what awaits us from October to April:
- in 2 quarters we will need 300 billion m3 of gas if we do not save. The savings targets in the EU are 10% to 15%.
- the EU can produce or deliver a total of 1 billion m3 of gas from Norway and Algeria per day via LNG. That is 180-200 billion in 2 quarters.
- If we add 100 billion in reservoirs to the supply of 200 billion, we get exactly 300 billion in consumption.
Yes: with no savings, no increase in deliveries, zero deliveries from Russia and an average winter, it still comes out to ZERO - ZERO.
On April 1, we will have approximately 1 billion deliveries per day, but if it's cold, then a little more demand, but if it's already warm, then a little less consumption.
And that's assuming:
- nothing is saved
- nothing will flow from Russia from today
- nothing will be increased in deliveries compared to contracts
- the winter will be quite decently cold
Every single day, already in "warm" September, we "cut" a meter of the winter period (maximum 8 months: September-April). And as you can see, we still have a joker in the EU and it's warm, and Black Peter is owned by Russia and Putin.
It is also true that Russia supplies to the EU via Turkstream and Transgas, and it certainly won't shut down at least Hungary, about 60-80 million. m3 per day. That is 1 billion m3 per month and 10 billion by the end of May 2023, which the above calculations did not include.
CONCLUSION:
It would be useful to track the weekly data:
- filling reservoirs to the 106 billion maximum
- balance: supplies - consumption in Europe, where there is now a surplus of about 2-3 billion per week and it's storage tanks
- when the weather will turn and we will start cleaning the surplus of 2-3 billion per week in households and in institutions
- the price of gas, which can follow oil "DOWN".
A drop in price together with a decrease in the volume of deliveries from Russia would help the EU to finance consumption with lower finances and would also significantly reduce Russia's income from gas exports to Europe.
With high gas supplies last year and this year and with a high price, Russia's maximum earnings were at the level of 5 billion per week just from gas to the EU. Today, with deliveries reduced to 1/4 and at a price 25% lower, the amount is 1 billion per week. It already hurts, because it was 4 billion Euros more. But that was the maximum.
Anyway, we wrote down about 7 good news and 1 big risk: hard, cold, early and long winter. Today we know that it will not start in the next 14 days. And that's good news, friends.

If you want and know how to support the work on our reports, you can do so at: https://www.patreon.com/databezpatosu
Source for chart and data:
https://gas.kyos.com/gas/
Our overview of the state of reservoirs in Europe and Slovakia:
https://databezpatosu.sk/2022/08/29/plyn-aktualne-statistiky-k-zasobe-kapacite-zasobnikov-a-rocnej-spotrebe/
Gas prices on world exchanges:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas"

 

[Mamoulian War]

And here is the video of former DNR commander Girkin, where he states, that Russia already lost the war: Maybe @bugarup can do some translations for you, if he has spare time (if I understood it correctly, that you are fluent in Russian language)
 

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

All the time? Really?

Ok, point me to three (3) Western companies whose PR departments have taken the trouble to make a sort-of promotional video whose sole purpose is to mock the (supposed / possible) plight of its former customers. I'd love to see the videos, too.

The US instructing its chip makers not to sell is not what I was talking about, nor was harsh words around a negotiation table. There's nothing unusual about that, I agree.

If you're going to go narrowly for 'promotional videos' then fine, they didn't go as far as Gazprom. Then again, the promotional video is more or less proportional to the threat accompanying it compared to an individual companys' effect on Russia; ie can you name a sanctioning western company as significant to Russia as Gazprom is to Europe, or even close? Rhetorical, no need to actually answer. With all due respect to, say, McDonalds if they'd done a promotional video on their withdrawal they'd have been laughed at because ultimately they sell burgers and fries. Gazprom is somewhat more important than that.

Plenty of companies did use withdrawing from Russia Promotionally though, just not with a video, I don't think that can be disputed. A fair few were posted here as well. As above I'll concede they didn't go as far as Gazprom in publicising it (but, see point 1 below)

I'd dispute the harsh words around a negotiating table bit, though it's peripheral. European conduct has been pretty close to if not outright unprecedented on the matter, and end of the day the seller has a right not to sell if the buyers' demands are unreasonable.

The two relevant points otherwise are:

(1) this is not actually a commercial decision by Gazprom, neither the video nor the threat/ actions. It's a political decision by its majority shareholder, the Russian government, to act on/ publicise its leverage. And while it may not be a commercial action it is an economic one, the video is designed as an attack on Confidence in exactly the same way the succession of Euro politicos and analysts predicting the imminent implosion of Russia's economy was which followed western companies leaving. As said previously, one of the reasons the 'science' of economics fails so often is that perception largely shapes reality (until it doesn't) which is why everyone puts a lot of effort into trying to make it look like the other side is about to implode financially whether or not they believe it. That's why we had "Russia will be bankrupt in 6 months" both in 2022 and far more laughably, in 2014; not because it was a 'serious' prediction but because one of the things that might actually lead to bankruptcy is a Confidence crisis. Similarly, if you want energy bills to reach €6000+ a household in the EU one of the best ways to do it is to say that it will happen and show how*.

(2) leaving Russia was not really a choice for western companies in most cases either, despite being private institutions. The Sanctions regime was a political decision, and in many cases would make doing business literally impossible.

*and conversely, as per Mamoulian War's post above, one of the best ways to try and avert a crisis is to insist there isn't actually a (big) problem at all and everything is well in hand, so you don't get market panic driving prices up. You find out who was right- or whose PR worked?- only after it's happened.

[xzar_monty]

22 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

With all due respect to, say, McDonalds if they'd done a promotional video on their withdrawal they'd have been laughed at because ultimately they sell burgers and fries. Gazprom is somewhat more important than that.

Oh, absolutely, no question (re: McDonalds). Also, no question that Gazprom is more important by a couple of orders of magnitude. Which is precisely why the video taunt looks so inane; it is frankly baffling to see such a huge entity stoop to that level. As I said, companies just don't do stuff like this, normally. I have no doubt that there's an awful lot of outright hostility etc. in the business world, just like in the political world, but most of the time you tend to see some rules of diplomacy apply.

Edited September 8, 2022 by xzar_monty

[xzar_monty]

Apparently someone has been smoking in Belgorod last night, or, conceivably, there has been some kind of attack on the Russian city, because there have been explosions and half the place is / was without electricity. This does not look meaningless, in terms of Russian morale, at least.

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Elerond said:

Ukraine's military command isn't that optimist they estimated that war will continue at least to 2024 in current course

Yes I dont think anyone seriously thinks Putins War could be over by November and @Malcador knows this so Im not sure why he would suggest such a unrealistic timeline ?

[Lexx]

Would be really nice if this were over in November, though.

[xzar_monty]

If, for instance, Russian morale collapses in a big way, there may be some dramatic developments reaching all the way up to the top.

Not expecting this to happen, but it might.

Edited September 8, 2022 by xzar_monty

[Malcador]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

Yes I dont think anyone seriously thinks Putins War could be over by November and @Malcador knows this so Im not sure why he would suggest such a unrealistic timeline ?

Just being a bit mocking at the peanut gallery in the war, that was all.  Although, this would be something worth betting on, it's a spectator sport for a lot

5 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

Lavrov, by the way, has been remarkably quiet for quite some time now -- or perhaps the media hasn't bothered to quote him. I am not trying to insinuate anything about his health, but given how vocal he was in the earlier parts of the war, he has essentially disappeared from view. Could be a perspective thing, though.

Well why go with the banal explanation when it must be something else.  They quoted him commenting on that moron Truss becoming PM in the UK about 2 days ago, the bombing in Kabul, etc.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Malcador

[ShadySands]

I'm mostly curious on how it ends

[Sarex]

1 hour ago, ShadySands said:

I'm mostly curious on how it ends

Not well, I can tell you that for sure. If Russia wins, the people will need to rebuild on their own, if Ukraine wins the people will need to rebuild on their own and be in a massive debt, but they will have ready jobs to extract gas and any other natural resource they can provide.

[pmp10]

7 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

Russia has been playing with the price of gas for 3 years, if not 12, and thus a year ago the price of gas was only 40% lower.

I assume they mean the end-user price?
The current market price has over 250% YoY increase.

[ShadySands]

My wife's super pro-Russian uncle made me laugh this morning

"Germany let us hold their balls for cheap gas, so now we squeeze!"

[Malcador]

34 minutes ago, Sarex said:

Not well, I can tell you that for sure. If Russia wins, the people will need to rebuild on their own, if Ukraine wins the people will need to rebuild on their own and be in a massive debt, but they will have ready jobs to extract gas and any other natural resource they can provide.

I am still unsure of what Russia's victory condition is.  If Ukraine wins, I don't think they'll be rebuilding on their own, should get a lot of money pouring in.  Granted, great opportunity for corruption then.

[BruceVC]

13 minutes ago, Malcador said:

I am still unsure of what Russia's victory condition is.  If Ukraine wins, I don't think they'll be rebuilding on their own, should get a lot of money pouring in.  Granted, great opportunity for corruption then.

Or maybe there wont be corruption or much less, lets be positive Malc