Ukraine Conflict - Es ist nichts schrecklicher als eine tätige Unwissenheit

[ComradeYellow]

Also logistical difficulties, it's very damn difficult to keep resupplying troops the further and faster they get away from depots in hostile territory, add a serious numerical advantage to Soviet manpower and yeah.  Also the whole "They damn near took Moscow!" argument doesn't hold much water to me as because it assumes that even if they did enter Moscow that they would just take it.  Napoleon entered Moscow and that spelled his defeat, and considering the Stalingrad battle you can imagine the difficulty the Germans would face at conquering Moscow and declaring a victory.

And Putin's motives here are pretty obvious, he and most Russians consider themselves a great power with a glorious past and and want to behave like one.

[rjshae]

Analysis of the conflict from the CSIS:

Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Reaching the Tipping Point

Quote

In four weeks of combat, Russia may have lost 25 percent of its initial attacking force. These casualties are not on the scale of World War II but are large compared with the relatively small size of the Russian military today. Although reinforcements and replacements can offset some of these casualties, the loss of trained troops will impair military operations and eventually have a political effect.

 

[Zoraptor]

5 hours ago, 213374U said:

If anything, what the Russians have attempted is not "blitzkrieg" but rather an application of the old Soviet deep battle doctrine. Deep battle anticipates non-trivial losses, which is why looking at these figures from a Western perspective can be misleading. In any case, the offensive seems to have lost all momentum pretty early on so it's not exactly according to doctrine, heh.

It was pretty close to Blitzkrieg in the south for a week. Considering Ukraine had 8 years to fortify Crimea- which is naturally about as bottlenecked as you can get- the progress from there was extremely fast.

They just didn't have anything to follow up that success with because it was all stuck pointlessly in a traffic jam, swamp and forest on the wrong side of the Dniepr north of Kiev. Whoever decided sending 50k troops along a single road that decamped straight into an extended urban area of 3+mn population was a good idea is an idiot (and as previous, I'd put a lot on that being Putin since it smacked of a political rather than military decision). Have those troops pretty much anywhere else and things would potentially be a lot different. Now the best they can do is send them all along the same single road back into Belarus.

[BruceVC]

9 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

 

@BruceVC Me and my wife have taken one Ukrainian refugee to our house, so I am spending less time with my PC now. But I am still trying to read a little bit here and there.

 

 

Mamie its very rare I am genuinely  amazed or impressed by what I read on most  forums, Im not cynical or negative about life and peoples comments its just I am generally  use to how we all engage and what we think

But this post of yours is an example of how that doesnt always apply. What an amazing offer from you and your wife, I know most of us cant do this type of act of humanity because their are real issues like free space in our homes and costs 

Where is the refugee from, what age and have they  spoken to you about how they left Ukraine? Any details you can share would be appreciated?

 

[Gorth]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

It was pretty close to Blitzkrieg in the south for a week. Considering Ukraine had 8 years to fortify Crimea- which is naturally about as bottlenecked as you can get- the progress from there was extremely fast.

They just didn't have anything to follow up that success with because it was all stuck pointlessly in a traffic jam, swamp and forest on the wrong side of the Dniepr north of Kiev. Whoever decided sending 50k troops along a single road that decamped straight into an extended urban area of 3+mn population was a good idea is an idiot (and as previous, I'd put a lot on that being Putin since it smacked of a political rather than military decision). Have those troops pretty much anywhere else and things would potentially be a lot different. Now the best they can do is send them all along the same single road back into Belarus.

That reminds me of one of those articles (or was it a youtube video?) linked to in the past, that mentioned Putins decisions were those of a KGB officer, not an army general. I.e. thinking about politics, leverage and symbolism rather the realities of warfare. Maybe he's still loyal to the oath he swore once... fighting tooth and nail for the USSR. Even if it hasn't existed for a long time now.

 

Edit: Speaking of die hard leftovers of previous regimes, anyone else remember some interesting times when Franco supporters stormed the Spanish parliament in 1981?

[BruceVC]

49 minutes ago, Gorth said:

That reminds me of one of those articles (or was it a youtube video?) linked to in the past, that mentioned Putins decisions were those of a KGB officer, not an army general. I.e. thinking about politics, leverage and symbolism rather the realities of warfare. Maybe he's still loyal to the oath he swore once... fighting tooth and nail for the USSR. Even if it hasn't existed for a long time now.

 

Edit: Speaking of die hard leftovers of previous regimes, anyone else remember some interesting times when Franco supporters stormed the Spanish parliament in 1981?

No, I dont remember. What happened and what was it like ?

[Gorth]

1 hour ago, BruceVC said:

No, I dont remember. What happened and what was it like ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Spanish_coup_d'état_attempt

Tl;dr; (@213374Ucorrect me if I'm wrong) It was a number of military rebellions around Spain, the most famous of which was Guardia Civil officers storming and seizing the Spanish parliament. Fed up with the chaos (economic and otherwise) that had resulted from the transition from Fascist rule to democracy, they missed to "good old days" where things were working, trains ran on time, the country wasn't being torn apart by social unrest etc.

[Mamoulian War]

5 hours ago, BruceVC said:

Mamie its very rare I am genuinely  amazed or impressed by what I read on most  forums, Im not cynical or negative about life and peoples comments its just I am generally  use to how we all engage and what we think

But this post of yours is an example of how that doesnt always apply. What an amazing offer from you and your wife, I know most of us cant do this type of act of humanity because their are real issues like free space in our homes and costs 

Where is the refugee from, what age and have they  spoken to you about how they left Ukraine? Any details you can share would be appreciated?

 

She is 19, she is from Doneck Oblast, and city close to Kramatorsk. Pretty close to People's Republic "borders". Their city is pretty safe so far, but according to current army movement, it looks like, that will change sooner or later . She studied acting in Kyiv, and she managed to travel by bus from Kyiv to Chop and then by railways to my homecity, where a guy from Mariupol living here introduced her to us. And the situation in Mariupol seen from the videos, which the guy showed us, it looked even worse, than from the news reporting... Especially, when he said "On this street, I was walking almost every day. Do you see this window with a flames lashing out of the window? It is my good friend's apartment, where I was visiting him often"...

[Mamoulian War]

Today, I was so unlucky to find some reports from E40 Highway, and town of Bucha, not gonna link it, but feel free to search for it on Google and youtube. And then tell me again with a straight face, that Russians are trying to avoid civilian casualties, and are not doing it deliberately as a part of their tactics...

As an example, in Bucha, Ukrainian Territorial Defenses found a yard with a lot civilian remains, with tied hands behind their backs which were shot. On E40, the short walk of the news reporter showed 11 burned civilian cars and close to them burned remains of civilians with at least one child, all hidden under pile of tires and plastic sheets... These cars were shot with Tank hidden in the trench near the road.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Mamoulian War
Bucha, not Buch

[Mamoulian War]

15 hours ago, Malcador said:

Yep, and they were lying.

And that was my point as well. Also, Ukrainian MoD denied, that it was Ukraine army which performed this operation. But the claim, that this was a false flag attack, together with the ammo warehouse blown up day or two before, is as ridiculous as Lavrov's claims. On the other hand The Ukrainian MoD said, that it might be a work of Russian inside sabotage, which might be their propaganda as well. We never know how it happen for sure

[kanisatha]

But the bottom line still remains, if it is the case that the Ukrainians did it, so what? Russia can attack and systematically destroy Ukraine, but Ukraine is not allowed to strike back at Russian territory?

[213374U]

5 hours ago, Gorth said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981_Spanish_coup_d'état_attempt

Tl;dr; (@213374Ucorrect me if I'm wrong) It was a number of military rebellions around Spain, the most famous of which was Guardia Civil officers storming and seizing the Spanish parliament. Fed up with the chaos (economic and otherwise) that had resulted from the transition from Fascist rule to democracy, they missed to "good old days" where things were working, trains ran on time, the country wasn't being torn apart by social unrest etc.

Yeah, it was one big conspiracy by the army top brass to quickly take control of the country in the streets and behead the democratic government so a military junta government could be presented as a fait accompli before civil authorities could react. There's very good reason to believe that our emeritus king (yeah, that's a thing here, wonder why) was involved and meant to appear in congress to add a veneer of legitimacy to the coup. For whatever reason -theories abound- he switched sides and condemned the coup at the 11th hour, leaving Milans and the fools at congress high and dry. His support was required because he had been designated head of state by Franco and thus was perceived to carry on with the latter's authority in military circles. Without his endorsement the coup quickly collapsed.

Interestingly, while things generally ran very well under Franco (except a free press and, er, elections) in the early days of democracy, political parties in congress actually got a lot of important **** done. There were protests and a degree of instability, but nothing qualitatively worse than what we see today, with blatant executive overreaches, rampant corruption, crippling strikes, etc. against a background of constant warnings of imminent fascist/communist takeover.

Edited April 2, 2022 by 213374U

[Malcador]

4 hours ago, Mamoulian War said:

And that was my point as well. Also, Ukrainian MoD denied, that it was Ukraine army which performed this operation. But the claim, that this was a false flag attack, together with the ammo warehouse blown up day or two before, is as ridiculous as Lavrov's claims. On the other hand The Ukrainian MoD said, that it might be a work of Russian inside sabotage, which might be their propaganda as well. We never know how it happen for sure

Probably just some very good Hind pilots benefitting from NATO intelligence. Maybe is some Azov people that did it, they don't want their legend to grow so they denied it

[Mamoulian War]

3 hours ago, Malcador said:

Probably just some very good Hind pilots benefitting from NATO intelligence. Maybe is some Azov people that did it, they don't want their legend to grow so they denied it

I have found tweet about a video of official Ukrainian reaction to Belgorod "accident". It was not only denial, but blatant and masterful trolling

And another Ukrainian official response to Belgorod.

 

[kanisatha]

1 minute ago, Mamoulian War said:

I have found tweet about a video of official Ukrainian reaction to Belgorod "accident". It was not only denial, but blatant and masterful trolling

And another Ukrainian official response to Belgorod.

 

Nice! And even in their denials, the Ukrainians should use the exact same words and phrasing the Russians use when they deny responsibility for attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets.

[rjshae]

Targeting Russian oil facilities: not a war crime.

[Elerond]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/02/ukrainian-children-used-as-human-shields-near-kyiv-say-witness-reports

Ukraine accuses Russian using very terrorist like tactics

Quote

Ukraine’s attorney general is gathering a dossier of claims about the Russian use of local children to avoid fire when in retreat from around Ukraine’s capital and elsewhere.

Coaches of children were said to have been placed in front of tanks in the village of Novyi Bykiv, close to the encircled city of Chernihiv, 100 miles north of Kyiv.

It was further alleged that children had been taken as hostages in a number of conflict hot spots around the country to ensure locals would not give the coordinates of the enemy’s movements to the Ukrainian forces.

“Cases of using children as cover are recorded in Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia oblasts [regions],” said Lyudmila Denisova, Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman.

Colonel Oleksandr Motuzyanyk, spokesman for Ukraine’s ministry of defence, said the cases were being investigated by the country’s attorney general, but he was unable to provide further details. He said: “Enemies have been using Ukrainian children as a living shield when moving their convoys, moving their vehicles.

 

[pmp10]

Rumors have it that post-soviet tanks will be delivered to Ukraine along with already promised APCs.
Plenty of junk T-72s around in eastern Europe I suppose but how do they plan to arrange replacements?
It's the MIGs problem all over again.

[Malcador]

43 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

Rumors have it that post-soviet tanks will be delivered to Ukraine along with already promised APCs.
Plenty of junk T-72s around in eastern Europe I suppose but how do they plan to arrange replacements?
It's the MIGs problem all over again.

Poland has a couple hundred they can spare, no?

[Lexx]

Lots of reports about executed civilians now. Also more stories of rape left and right. But I guess that's just ukraine propaganda or something something.

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Plenty of junk T-72s around in eastern Europe I suppose but how do they plan to arrange replacements?

They can't build them but they do have some capacity to maintain/ upgrade them, and have for example exported T-72s to 3rd parties. Though that was a decade ago now and under Yanukovich when purchase of any required Russian parts would not have been so much of a problem. They inherited ~1000 from the soviets, though the vast majority were never mothballed properly so may as well be junk so far as use for replacements go.

Their tank plant in Kharkov makes T-64s and T-80 variants, and since they can't be supplied by anyone else (well, except Russia for the T-80) that is pretty irrelevant. You'd also have to assume that it's not in the best shape at present.

[if it's replacement tanks for Poland there's heaps of options. If nothing else the US has a load of older Abrams in reserve- and Poland is meant to be getting new Abrams this year(?) anyway so it wouldn't be a long term shortage]

Edited April 2, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Agiel]

A German pal sent this to me. A piece on the one General who has as much to do with the Ukrainian armed forces' success as Zelenskyy. Machine translation as follows, with emphases mine:

Quote

The Ukrainian army also owes its success to its commander-in-chief

Valery Salushni has been leading the Ukrainian armed forces for only eight months. He represents an unequivocal departure from the military's Soviet legacy - contributing to Ukraine's defensive struggle, which has been successful so far.

If the Russian army leadership thought it had an easy ride in Ukraine, it should have listened to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces. They were ready to receive the enemy, Valery Saluzhni said a month ago: "Not with flowers, but with anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles." And if Russia does attack? "Welcome to hell," Saluzhni said tersely.

Meanwhile, it turns out that Salushni was not exaggerating. The Russian advance is proceeding more slowly and with greater losses than many experts had assumed. The Russian superiority in the air as well as the numerical inferiority of the Ukrainian ground forces were considered good preconditions for a quick Russian victory.

At 48, Saluzhni is relatively young for a commander-in-chief. President Volodimir Selensky appointed the father of two as Ukraine's top officer only last July. But Salushni's age is also his advantage: He is the first Ukrainian commander-in-chief who was no longer trained in the Soviet Union. He is emblematic of the sweeping reform of Ukraine's military since 2014.

When Valery Salushni finished school in 1989 in the small town of Novohrad-Volinsky west of Kiev, Ukraine was still part of the Soviet Union. During this time of upheaval, he followed in the footsteps of his father, who was also a member of the military. He attended the prestigious military academy in Odessa and graduated with honors from the ground forces officer training program in 1997.

During Salushni's time at the military academy, the young Ukrainian army was still heavily Russian. Until 2014, many senior positions in the Ukrainian security apparatus were held by Russians who had spent their entire careers in the Soviet Union, says Hans Petter Midttun, who was the Norwegian military attaché in Kiev between 2014 and 2018. Their loyalty to Ukraine, as well as their willingness to change, was accordingly limited.

When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the impact of the Soviet legacy on the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian army became apparent. The command structure was highly centralized along Soviet lines: With no orders coming from Kiev, Ukrainian ground forces surrendered without a fight, and others even defected to the Russians.

From 2014, Salushni served almost without interruption in the embattled Donetsk region. When he was promoted to major general in 2017, he was in no hurry to be removed from the eastern Ukrainian front, Radio Free Europe reports. Saluzhni, he said, is someone who fights not only on paper but also in the field. A Ukrainian officer stated this to the radio station.

Since the annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian military has undergone major changes. The U.S. has spent over $3 billion on equipment and training for the armed forces. In addition, cooperation with NATO has intensified. In total, NATO officers trained 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers; the Soviet mindset became less important.

Salushni was one of the main advocates of Ukraine joining NATO and contributed to the military's interoperability with NATO forces. As head of combat training, he pushed the use of Western weapons systems and frequently conducted joint exercises with British and American forces.

Before the invasion, Ukraine had 170,000 servicemen and women and 100,000 reservists and veterans. As a result of the war in eastern Ukraine, many units are battle-hardened. The mentality of the troops has completely changed since 2014. These are the most important factors in the current success of Ukraine's defensive struggle, says former military attaché Midttun.

However, for the renewal to reach the top of the army, it still needed Salushni's appointment. His predecessor, Ruslan Khomchak, had still been trained in the Soviet Union, and former Defense Minister Andri Taran was known for maintaining a Soviet-influenced style. Contrary to NATO requirements, Taran was not a civilian but a former lieutenant general, and he also tried to influence operational concerns of the military.

The situation was aggravated by the fact that Khomchak and Taran quarreled publicly. President Selensky also installed a new defense minister in November, Olexi Resnikov, with whom Salushni worked well.

The change was overdue, because the Russian troop buildup on the border had already begun. "Up until that point, Ukraine had a completely dysfunctional command structure," says Sarah Whitmore, a lecturer in political science at Oxford Brookes University in the United Kingdom.

Ukrainian military reform began long before Salushni was appointed commander in chief last summer. But he is pushing the changes more vigorously than his predecessors. The general is also battle-hardened himself and understands the problems faced by officers and soldiers who have been at war for eight years.

Operationally, Salushni is also hammering out his own stakes. One of his first acts in office was to grant officers in the field more autonomy so that a situation like the one in Crimea in 2014 would not be repeated. He ordered that soldiers on the front lines could return fire without consulting the top leadership.

President Selensky is the de jure supreme commander, but has no prior military experience himself. In order to conduct the war, he depends on Salushni. In him, Selenski has made an excellent personnel decision, Whitmore says: "I don't want to imagine what the war would look like now if Ukraine still had last July's team at the top of the military."

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Agiel

[ComradeYellow]

Didn't Red Alert comedian Zelensky just fire two generals?  Usually a good indicator of winning...

While the outcome of the war is not in doubt, there's grumblings about a major battle coming up in the Donbass that could take weeks up to a month, and should be decisive.

Also yes, even the most pro Putin diehards following the situation closely have acknowledged that he made some risky operations that they would have advised against, but if he removed the "political" factor completely and gave his military full control of the situation like he did in the 2nd Chechen War all those years ago, there would be a whole Hell of a lot more civilian casualties for sure. 

Edited April 2, 2022 by ComradeYellow

[Malcador]

Seems peace talks progressed a bit

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/820489.html

[Gorth]

4 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

Also yes, even the most pro Putin diehards following the situation closely have acknowledged that he made some risky operations that they would have advised against, but if he removed the "political" factor completely and gave his military full control of the situation like he did in the 2nd Chechen War all those years ago, there would be a whole Hell of a lot more civilian casualties for sure. 

You could also argue it's good he didn't leave the decision making to the army, otherwise Russia might have ended up winning. As in winning fast, efficient and brutally before the sanctions even took hold the way they have now.

 

Edit: And with a lot more headaches for the west than they have now, where it looks like Russia may gain something, but at a cost that far exceeds the gains.