Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[kanisatha]

18 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

Don't really know why the Russians aren't using their semi precision bombs rather than flying low enough for stingers to have an effect (exc Su25).

US and UK defense officials have asked this same question, and their projection is that Russia does not have a good supply of PGMs, that its best munitions are held only in very small quantities, and they have already exhausted their supply or else don't want to exhaust what little they still have. So they have now switched to unguided munitions, and are trying to make up for the loss in capability by using thermobaric bombs and cluster munitions.

[kanisatha]

6 hours ago, Gorth said:

For those interested in history and background for the war... warning, long video, but very interesting. Bear in mind this is from 2015, covering post Soviet and Western relations after 1991, but could have been made yesterday. From the University of Chicago...

As a fellow realist I know Mearsheimer's work very well. But he's a bit of an oddball ... and also somewhat of a Russia apologist.

His "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics" is a classic in the field of international relations. It was mandatory reading in grad school for me. His more recent books have been mandatory in some of my classes for my students.

[ComradeYellow]

Ruh Ro.

[Mamoulian War]

A google translation of Slovak text published today by one of the anti-mafia, anti-nazi investigative journalist from Slovakia (Radovan Bránik), which speaks little bit more about current situation, and why some of the Russian Troops, especially in the north and east seem halted. And the causes behind it. Part two should be published soon. He speaks about Russia making one of the craziest mistakes in modern warfare. Military communication, which is being intercepted by radio amateurs...

 

Quote

REALLY A VERY, VERY LONG STORY. BAD LUCK.
Take your time or don't read it.
I have never spared you and this will be really long and incomprehensible to some. But if you want to know more about war than blunt propaganda slogans, you have to get through it.
This is the true story of how war criminal Putler deliberately sent his own soldiers to defeat. This is the end of one of the biggest myths about the Russian military's technological superiority in communications. None actually exists.
Unexpected mistakes and errors have appeared in the behavior of some of its ground units since the beginning of the invasion, which seemed surprising. In recent years, the Putler regime, through a heavy propaganda campaign, has given many military analysts the impression that its troops have, in some respects, great technological superiority over the systems of NATO member states. However, after a few hours of invasion, the first anomalies occurred, which indicated the opposite. However, in the intelligence and analytical community, the view still prevailed that these were the consequences of command failure and wrong decisions, or insufficient exploration of the target area.
But something unprecedented happened a few days ago in the evening and then at night and in the morning: several captured Russian soldiers - and unfortunately many of them died - found an unexpectedly large amount of communications technology that practically did not meet modern military standards. On the contrary, it turned out that the vast majority of radio traffic between the units took place via simple transmitters commonly available on the civilian market and, moreover, without any encryption. It can be listened to by practically anyone - and anyone could enter it. A wide community of surprised radio amateurs began to monitor the operation on an increasing number of frequencies used by the Russians: and with the help of quickly summoned Ukrainian enthusiasts, they found the Holy Grail.
They found out that the Russian army uses dozens of other unencrypted frequencies not only for a long time, not only for communication between individual ground units, but even for sending navigation coordinates for the needs of air support and bombing. The relatively small but perfectly excited global community of freaks quickly became active, and within hours, more than a thousand people began to actively monitor and record communications on a single site. There are dozens of those websites. English translations increased at lightning speed. Enthusiasts have found two important things: first, that the Russians are trying to cover up the lack of encryption by frequent changes in the frequencies used, but also that they share the codes for part of the encrypted broadcast on unencrypted sessions.
And then it happened: from passive observation, the radio amateurs went on the offensive and began to interfere with the individual frequencies with a stronger signal. On some channels, the Ukrainian anthem sounded like that, on others, they simply ridiculed Russian soldiers, while elsewhere they simulated communication on behalf of liaison officers of Russian troops and deliberately provided them with confusing information.
On one of the frequencies, the herd and grunting of a herd of pigs sounded indefinitely. And he didn't sound funny, he froze at him: it sounds like they're going to be defeated. And they went.
However, this fascinating activity on amateur radio fans' sites quickly caught the attention of the intelligence services: and suddenly one obscure and poorly secured website created in 2008 for the University of the Netherlands in Enschede, an amateur radio club, became another of the battlefields of elite reporters trying to protect their countries. The Russians tried to calm the situation and regain control of the radio spectrum, while their opponents systematically caused more and more chaos. Russian spies put traps in the discussion, through which they wanted to monitor the people involved in the activities and prevent them from further access to the site. However, they acted in such time stress that they themselves made many mistakes and at one point the so-called "Panic at the disco." Perfect, absolute.
The democracy of the Internet has its charm: anyone could put a useful link in the discussion - and it did. The user anon14401 asked others to verify the frequency via a link, but under which the site was able to retrieve a huge amount of user data by clicking on it. Successfully, because hundreds of people managed to click on the link. Subsequently, however, the number of users afraid of revealing their identity began to grow and connections via various anonymization VPNs began to increase.
Anon14401 subsequently sowed additional uncertainty among the communication participants, warning everyone not to click on the toxic lines. When nervousness, confusion and paranoia culminated, he placed a third link in the discussion, this time on a YouTube video, and introduced it with the warning text "if you click on links here this happens:" - plus - minus "when you click on the links, this happens: "

It worked, because in such moments, curiosity simply overwhelms the extremely intelligent people - and the result is more information about the digital identity of hundreds of participants in the debate. They listened to a mocking party and passed on data with enormous intelligence value. Optionally, via youtube, after clicking to enable cookies. The paradox is that, with a few exceptions, they no longer used VPN and other anonymization techniques, so you could find out a lot of them with a little dexterity: the place from which they connected, the operating system of mobile or laptop, internet provider, battery charge and dozens other useful information.
I note that none of the above had anything to do with non-illegal techniques or any illegal actions. It was only a matter of using the commonly available functionalities of google analytics and other programs that enable, in accordance with the law, to obtain a lot of information about website visitors. In connection with the skillful use of social engineering techniques, this incident managed to extract an incredible amount of data that can be used in further tracing the activities of persons working for the intelligence services of the Russian Federation in some EU countries. For example. But try to imagine what the hackers in the service of the rogue state can do, who will definitely not bother with the legality of the data obtained from you.
Without exaggeration: an individual only a percentage more skilled than Miznik could cause "friendly fires" from the other side of the globe in a matter of hours - thus leading the Russians to attack the Russians without realizing that they would not attack the Ukrainian "Nazis," but on their own. An explanation for the incomprehensibly often lacking air support for attacking and moving ground units can also be found here. Without it, they then become an easy target in urban development. The planes did not bomb because they were not sure whether they would destroy their own. The mutual shelling of two Russian tank units and the consequent huge losses a few tens of hours ago suggest that the command of the Army of the Russian Federation tragically underestimated one of the key aspects of any successful war - a secure and encrypted uninterrupted connection between the units. And so far it has not solved this problem.
In many of these channels, you can still hear only a lot of noise and sound artifacts, which are a manifestation of the resistance of the amateur radio community against the Russian aggression against Ukraine. Although until recently it was a completely clear and understandable broadcast without disturbing influences, a few tens of hours after the invasion, the world amateur radio community began to really drown out and often literally prevent communication on unencrypted but also encrypted communications. It means an extremely strong solar strike by one of the world's strongest armies, which it clearly did not count on, which it did not prepare for, and which reduces its effectiveness in a truly dizzying way. Russian troops practically do not call each other, and if so, they pass on information to Ukraine's defenders about their plans, position and offensive force.
In a short time, this is another proof if the seemingly helpless people were able to defeat the seemingly invincible once again: it is a classic story of a duel between David and Goliath, transferred to the virtual world.
There are quite a few websites through which the operation of obsolete Russian communications technology can be monitored - a large part of which dates back to the time of the deep Cold War - and many provide users with a high level of security. However, users of outdated maintenance-free websites are vulnerable, whose creators never thought it would once be possible to wage a real war in cyberspace: so please, anyone reading this: don't click on print screen lines this time. Last time it was right and you helped incredibly, today it is better not to click on anything that you are not 100% sure is safe. In occupied Ukraine, this is a really big problem.
It could end here somewhere. In the next status - if they do not turn me off - I will describe the broader background of the failure of the military elites, as well as the facts for which I am convinced that Russia will never achieve the goal it has set and communicated to the world. On the contrary, the losses will be terrible and will lead to fundamental changes within the Russian Federation itself - including the end of its gravedigger Putin. And let's take a closer look at the mental world of the Chief of General Staff of the Russian Army, Gerasimov. It will probably be surprising to many.

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Mamoulian War

[Zoraptor]

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

US and UK defense officials have asked this same question, and their projection is that Russia does not have a good supply of PGMs, that its best munitions are held only in very small quantities, and they have already exhausted their supply or else don't want to exhaust what little they still have. So they have now switched to unguided munitions, and are trying to make up for the loss in capability by using thermobaric bombs and cluster munitions.

They've got a pretty good system for 'guiding' unguided bombs though, that's the vast majority of what was used in Syria. They're not as good as a fully GPS (Glonass) guided system- and aren't dynamic so cannot hit moving targets like laser/ optical guiding- but they also use fully dumb bombs, so they're massively cheaper and don't require fancy targeting on the plane either. Won't protect against any Buks/ Tors/ S2/300 etc that the Ukrainians may have left- or planes, which supposedly the Ukrainians had active yesterday- but they do allow flying above manpad ceiling.

 

[rjshae]

'Bout sums it up.

[Darkpriest]

This is why no oil and gas will be touched. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-shortages-could-threaten-social-cohesion-germany-warns-against-ban-energy-imports

[Pidesco]

3 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

Ruh Ro. 

That's a really old laptop. Also seems odd that it is marked with a really obvious sticker. 

[Azdeus]

5 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

That's a really old laptop. Also seems odd that it is marked with a really obvious sticker. 

Considering what the Russians use for communication, that laptop looks hyper modern to them.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Azdeus

[Malcador]

6 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

That's a really old laptop. Also seems odd that it is marked with a really obvious sticker. 

Hey, man, that's my laptop right now.  But yes the sticker's a bit too on the nose.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Malcador

[Lexx]

lol that one sticker on the laptop says Geilenkirchen, which is a town at the very western border of germany. https://www.google.com/maps/place/52511+Geilenkirchen/@50.6911199,6.8916398,7z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x47c0a452466c9121:0x42760fc4a2a7b00!8m2!3d50.967168!4d6.1174584 (there is also a NATO base, so that much checks out)

My guess is that this is some super old crap that wasn't used anymore, and it somehow made its way over there. Probably given to the ukraine military and then it somehow landed there, who knows.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Lexx

[Darkpriest]

Some birds are chirping, that Shoigu (uncovered wide spread corruption, etc.) will be a scapegoat and that Russians will hit a hard stop within 2 weeks as they will run out of funding for the operation and soldiers are beginning to get info, that their operation pay is now worthless... 

 

Wonder, how much of a truth that is and how real it may be. 

[Zoraptor]

Last week it was Lavrov who was breaking ranks and Gerasimov who was going to be the scapegoat.

Maybe not Pacific Ocean --> Grain of salt, but not too far off.

[Darkpriest]

WTI Oil at 126!!! Brent at 135!!!

Holy F!  +50% in 1.5 week...

I'm not even sure what to think at the moment. It will soon be a dramatic situation... 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-06/brent-oil-soars-above-135-on-fears-over-tightening-market?srnd=premium-europe

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

People shouting about cancelling Russia better hope that crisis will not reach them. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pozsar-we-could-be-looking-early-stages-classic-liquidity-crisis

[kanisatha]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

They've got a pretty good system for 'guiding' unguided bombs though, that's the vast majority of what was used in Syria. They're not as good as a fully GPS (Glonass) guided system- and aren't dynamic so cannot hit moving targets like laser/ optical guiding- but they also use fully dumb bombs, so they're massively cheaper and don't require fancy targeting on the plane either. Won't protect against any Buks/ Tors/ S2/300 etc that the Ukrainians may have left- or planes, which supposedly the Ukrainians had active yesterday- but they do allow flying above manpad ceiling.

Well the main issue though is why, with over 300 tactical aircraft in the theater, they are flying so very few sorties per day (since the first couple of days). Seems their overall aviation situation has some huge question marks attached to it.

[Lexx]

Looks like russia is bringing in new top of the line military hardware to the frontlines:

 

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, Pidesco said:

That's a really old laptop. Also seems odd that it is marked with a really obvious sticker. 

Yes indeed. Let me fix that tweet for everyone's benefit:

BREAKING: Russia plants ... er, oh sorry *finds* "NATO equipment" at the headquarters of a Ukrainian nazi group ....

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

3 hours ago, Lexx said:

lol that one sticker on the laptop says Geilenkirchen, which is a town at the very western border of germany. https://www.google.com/maps/place/52511+Geilenkirchen/@50.6911199,6.8916398,7z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x47c0a452466c9121:0x42760fc4a2a7b00!8m2!3d50.967168!4d6.1174584 (there is also a NATO base, so that much checks out)

My guess is that this is some super old crap that wasn't used anymore, and it somehow made its way over there. Probably given to the ukraine military and then it somehow landed there, who knows.

From what I've read, the most likely thing is it being sold at a discount from NATO/Germany to Ukraine. I doubt that NATO uses 15 year old laptops held together with duct tape, because an obscene amount of cash gets pumped into it.

[Zoraptor]

5 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Well the main issue though is why, with over 300 tactical aircraft in the theater, they are flying so very few sorties per day (since the first couple of days). Seems their overall aviation situation has some huge question marks attached to it.

That could just be lack of targets. No point having 200 aircraft in the air at one time if they've nothing to do, and not as much point using aircraft when you've got huge amounts of artillery. That leaves combat patrols, interdiction and bombing fixed structures well behind the lines (or where extra ordnance size is needed).

It may also be the effect of continued talk of a no fly zone or concern of a NATO first strike, ie keeping a force in reserve. I wouldn't think either of those would be a realistic option personally, but then me being wrong about something has no consequences- Ukraine getting a bunch of MiG-29s and wanting to be able to respond to them immediately with a lot of fresh aircraft is more realistic though.

If there's one thing the Russians definitely are lacking it's loitering options, though the Ukrainians don't seem to have any left either. Bayraktars are not quite as useful when they can be shot down by a helicopter pilot using a handgun or flipped by the rotor wash.

20 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

WTI Oil at 126!!!

Holy F!  +50% in 1.5 week... From around mid 80ish...

I'm not even sure what to think at the moment. It will soon be a dramatic situation...

Nah, they can just drop interest rates again and print more money. What could possibly go wrong?

Slightly OT for here but our PM- who gets paid more than Joe Biden and owns a 2 million dollar house- insists there's no cost of living crisis when most of the rest of the country got effectively a 5% pay cut last year and many a whole lot more. Sadly, the other lot would be even worse.

[213374U]

4 hours ago, Lexx said:

My guess is that this is some super old crap that wasn't used anymore, and it somehow made its way over there. Probably given to the ukraine military and then it somehow landed there, who knows.

Not used anymore, eh?

Fix Our Computers

Not saying the post is legit -- it is a RIA Novosti post, after all. But the fact that the computer is old is no evidence to the contrary...

[Katphood]

1 hour ago, Lexx said:

Looks like russia is bringing in new top of the line military hardware to the frontlines:

 

This makes the battle of stalingrad look like a fairytale...how depressing! 

So this was the Russian army that was going to rival the US army?! Hahaha... 

I don't have that many friends, but I am going to gather a bunch of people from the outskirts of Tehran and together we will take Moscow...it could happen!

[kanisatha]

4 hours ago, Zoraptor said:

That could just be lack of targets. No point having 200 aircraft in the air at one time if they've nothing to do, and not as much point using aircraft when you've got huge amounts of artillery. That leaves combat patrols, interdiction and bombing fixed structures well behind the lines (or where extra ordnance size is needed).

Or it could just be their pilots can't operate very well at night, they're too vulnerable to SAMs during the day, their aircraft have very low serviceability, and they've run out of their PGMs, so they decided that since civilian casualties was never something they cared about anyway they would just use their artillery to indiscriminately destroy everything.

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, Katphood said:

This makes the battle of stalingrad look like a fairytale...how depressing! 

So this was the Russian army that was going to rival the US army?! Hahaha... 

I don't have that many friends, but I am going to gather a bunch of people from the outskirts of Tehran and together we will take Moscow...it could happen!

Yup, it's the one silver lining in all of this. I was genuinely concerned that in a NATO-Russia war we actually stood to potentially lose. Not anymore. Even a woefully unprepared and squabbling with each other NATO would utterly crush the Russians (which of course would then cause them to use tac nukes to save their sorry asses). I mean, that 40 mi. convoy broken down and stuck in mud is a humiliating disgrace. If only we would transfer an MLRS battery to the Ukrainians. That convoy would be obliterated in short order.

[Malcador]

21 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

Yup, it's the one silver lining in all of this. I was genuinely concerned that in a NATO-Russia war we actually stood to potentially lose. Not anymore. Even a woefully unprepared and squabbling with each other NATO would utterly crush the Russians (which of course would then cause them to use tac nukes to save their sorry asses). I mean, that 40 mi. convoy broken down and stuck in mud is a humiliating disgrace. If only we would transfer an MLRS battery to the Ukrainians. That convoy would be obliterated in short order.

Depends on who's attacking I guess, NATO storming into Russia is going to encounter more motivated troops than what we see here.  As for the convoy, Ukraine already has such batteries though.  They were supposedly pounding the convoy with it, I guess they still are.