Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[Darkpriest]

Peace talks started, i doubt any breakthrough will take place. 

[Katphood]

Us middleeasterns deserve to look like crap, smell like crap, live like crap and be treated like crap. I am sorry that's the truth.  

 

[Malcador]

17 minutes ago, Katphood said:

Us middleeasterns deserve to look like crap, smell like crap, live like crap and be treated like crap. I am sorry that's the truth.  

 

Pretty sure those AT weapons and Stingers aren't coming ex nihilo

But yes, European master race, etc.

[Katphood]

6 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Pretty sure those AT weapons and Stingers aren't coming ex nihilo

But yes, European master race, etc.

Yeah, the main problem isn't NATO, it's Nord Stream 2. The U.S even warned Germany that if they'd give NS2 the go, they would have to face sanctions.

 

Man, imagine Germany facing sanctions from the U.S

[Malcador]

Ukraine's deputy prime minister says Nato is partially responsible for civilian deaths in the country by refusing to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

Not the smoothest thing to say.  

[kanisatha]

11 hours ago, Gorth said:

I couldn't find any easily accessible list of demands of Ukraine other than honour the Minsk accord (which Zelenskiy effectively declared they were not going to implement after all) and don't join Nato.

But The Guardians seems to have a decent list of demands made of Nato (including not accepting Ukraine as a member) and to pull Nato troops (I assume this refers to "foreign" troops in the countries in question, the countries would still remain Nato members) back. Lastly, that the US honours the INF treaty, which they unilaterally abandoned in 2018.

Did I miss anything significant?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato

He wanted Ukraine to agree to not join NATO or any alliances (which could include the EU) and not have any military relationships (such as training or advisory) with any other country, to be completely demilitarized, to be "denazified" which I interpret as removing/sidelining anyone in Ukraine that Putin doesn't like, to give complete autonomy to the entire areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (which goes far beyond the Minsk Agreement), and to accept and never bring up again the issue of Crimea. Effectively a Ukrainian surrender to Putin that turns it into a vassel state of Russia, just like the status of Belarus right now, where eventually Ukraine (like Belarus) would be absorbed into Russia throught eh so-called "Union State" mechanism.

What Ukraine and Zelenskiy have earned by proving themselves against Putin in this war is the right to be able to sit down with the Russians as equals in any negotioants about the future of Ukraine. And Lavrov seems to have now accepted this, in principle. That's the huge thing Ukraine has gained from the war. Recall that pre-war, Putin categorically refused to even talk to Zelenskiy, and insisted that any discussions about Ukraine would happen with the major Western powers and NOT Ukraine itself. What he wanted was another Munich, where just like Czechoslovakia's fate was determined by others without the Czechs themselves having any say, so too here the Ukrainians would not have any say in determining their future. That's why Biden repeatedly went out of his way to emphasize that the US would never accept any decisions being made about Ukraine without the involvement of the Ukrainians themselves.

[Darkpriest]

Interesting table

[kanisatha]

6 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

A minor point but interesting nonetheless: Shoigu is not an ethnic Russian. One look at his personal palace will bring this fact home to anyone with eyes to see.

This somehow appears to parallel the confusing fact that the recent immigration crisis has given voice to some very strong anti-immigrant people in my country, and it's fascinating to note that many of these people do NOT represent the ethnic majority of my country, i.e. they are the equivalents of immigrants themselves.

Some material for psychologists right here.

Yes you are right. And that's also why I have this feeling that Shoigu is just putting on the appearance of Russian hyper-nationalism to ingratiate himself with Putin. Lavrov is a true believer. But Shoigu I'm not so sure, and hope if ever the need arises he will rise to the occasion and take the necessary actions against Putin.

[kanisatha]

2 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Interesting table

Yeah this is what I highlighted in my previous lengthy post. With Belarus and Syria not having any choice in the matter and having to do whatever Putin tells them to do, and Eritrea simply repaying the Russians for a recent debt, effectively North Korea is the only country truly standing with Russia. To be abandoned even by China must really grate on Putin's ego.

[xzar_monty]

3 hours ago, kanisatha said:

To be abandoned even by China must really grate on Putin's ego.

The terrifying thing is that we've got no idea how he might react to this blow. It could go so many ways, including something truly destructive.

[Sarex]

What do you guys thing this condemning of the UN actually does?

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

25 minutes ago, Sarex said:

What do you guys thing this condemning of the UN actually does?

Nothing, it's just theater. Else the Middle East would look much different than it does today.

I'm not one for guessing about the mindset of people I've never met, so I don't want to conjecture on how Putin feels about this. But I do imagine that the UN vote probably stings less for the Russian Federation than billionaires (potentially) getting mad about their money being ****ed with.

[ComradeYellow]

China has not "abandoned" Russia, if anything this is bringing Russia + China + India together as this psychotic Russophobia is alienating non-aligned regions, even South America is put off by this display.

Bubbles aren't your friend.

[Sarex]

8 minutes ago, KP the Torque Dork said:

Nothing, it's just theater. Else the Middle East would look much different than it does today.

I'm not one for guessing about the mindset of people I've never met, so I don't want to conjecture on how Putin feels about this. But I do imagine that the UN vote probably stings less for the Russian Federation than billionaires (potentially) getting mad about their money being ****ed with.

I would think he learned how to dance that dance by now and it's not like those billionaires can really do anything with that money right now.

 

Seems like the push in to Kiev starts tomorrow or very soon after.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

27 minutes ago, Sarex said:

I would think he learned how to dance that dance by now and it's not like those billionaires can really do anything with that money right now.

 

Seems like the push in to Kiev starts tomorrow or very soon after.

Even if they're curtailed and Putin can dance with them, their displeasure is still more relevant than the UN declaration, which is pretty much inconsequential in real terms.

[BruceVC]

6 hours ago, Malcador said:

Ukraine's deputy prime minister says Nato is partially responsible for civilian deaths in the country by refusing to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine.

Not the smoothest thing to say.  

I can understand how all Ukrainians must be feeling but their are several things NATO cant do and this keeps getting asked in the media and its makes NATO uncomfortable 

They cant enforce a no fly zone because this may lead to direct confrontation with Russia.

What about the Ukrainians surrendering to avoid further bloodshed ? Let the sanctions do their job

I realize  it sound like a cowardly choice but you can get the country back later, the West is behind Ukraine and they will be supported ?

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

2 hours ago, Sarex said:

What do you guys thing this condemning of the UN actually does?

Its just raises the reality of how most of the  world thinks and even though Putin may not care its never nice to see how many countries dont you support you and they dont agree with the Russian facts.

I feel sorry for normal Russian citizens and Ukrainians who really have friendships

Sarex would you accept EU membership without any prerequisites? 

 

Edited March 3, 2022 by BruceVC

[kanisatha]

3 hours ago, xzar_monty said:

The terrifying thing is that we've got no idea how he might react to this blow. It could go so many ways, including something truly destructive.

With his economy in freefall (over $1 trillion in Russian hard currency assets are now frozen worldwide) he desperately needs a lifeline from the Chinese. So Chinese displeasure with Russia's actions cannot be dismissed by Putin. At some point here the Chinese are going to insist on playing the part of the responsible power that wants to mediate the conflict. And Putin won't be in a position to say no like he has with other states that have offered to mediate.

Edited March 3, 2022 by kanisatha

[kanisatha]

2 hours ago, ComradeYellow said:

China has not "abandoned" Russia, if anything this is bringing Russia + China + India together as this psychotic Russophobia is alienating non-aligned regions, even South America is put off by this display.

Bubbles aren't your friend.

Oh please. This is just plain silly. China wants to take land from India and dominate India and you want to claim some sort of China + India? That's just nuts. India is staunchly anti-China. Period. And the only reason they hold on to their Russia card is as insurance against Western pressure or sanctions threats vis-a-vis some future action they may take against Pakistan. There is no love for Russia anywhere in India. By contrast, there is genuine warmth among a great many Indians toward the US, especially given the very large Indian diaspora now in the US that is becoming increasingly prominent in American political, social, and cultural circles.

And South America? Go and listen to the speeches that more than one hundred countries made on the UNGA floor including many S. American states. They all pounded Russia into the dirt. Even India's speech made it very obvious that they completely reject all of Russia's claims and are totally on Ukraine's side, but were abstaining for certain diplomatic reasons. There is an indisputable global consensus that Russia is the aggressor and a bully here and that Ukraine is an innocent victim. Many small developing states, even though not part of any sanctions regime themselves, have voluntarily cut off business and trade ties with Russia. In news media across the world, the stories are exclusively about how much they are impressed with the courage and bravery of those plucky Ukrainians. Every UN member that chose to abstain or not vote, did so NOT because of any support for Russia's position but rather only because they had some grievances with the US/West and did not want to get grouped in with the US/West. Even the ICC prosecutor, not at all a fan of the West, has launched a war crimes investigation of Russia and sent investigators to Ukraine.

Russia is now very much a global pariah. And they are going to remain that way for a long while as their brutality and destructiveness in Ukraine is only going to get much worse with time. All you Russia fans are going to have to suck it up and get used to it.

[Lexx]

Get out of here, Stalker.

[Agiel]

Genuinely astonished that "Ukraine is game to you?!" hasn't quite been as widespread as I anticipated:

 

 

Edited March 4, 2022 by Agiel

[Zoraptor]

I don't think you can talk about Indian- or the whole sub continent- and their attitude without mentioning the African sized elephant in the room which is the Bangladeshi Independence War and the attempted US intervention. Hard to forget the US sending a Carrier Strike Group to intervene on Pakistan's behalf, nor them being shadowed by a Soviet response force to prevent them.

Indeed, literally none of the participants in that war voted along with the west and the only two countries that did on the sub continent were Nepal and Bhutan, and they're of... modest importance to be fair. India remembers being a potential target for an intervention, Bangladesh remembers that the US would have preferred literal ongoing genocide and mass rape to them being free, and Pakistan remembers that the promised help didn't eventuate and they had an absolutely humiliating and total defeat. Even if you count Pakistan's two biggest non US supporters you still don't get a single for vote, since those were... China and Iran. The really funny thing being that for all his supposed nous and acumen Kissinger's great achievements were detente with now enemy China, and alienating India for a generation or more.

China and Russia being a voting bloc is very much a construct of western politics and media, mostly so they can point when China doesn't vote alongside Russia. Which happened plenty of times over Syria, for example. China can do that though as they know Russia would veto. Now, try and imagine a scenario where China doesn't vote against Russia being removed from the UNSC, or doesn't veto a no fly zone or whatever. Yeah, not exactly likely. Everything is carefully crafted word wise with the specific aim of making sure that China doesn't vote against it- and that means that everything is a lot more wishy washy than the west would like.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Zoraptor

[rjshae]

2 hours ago, BruceVC said:

I can understand how all Ukrainians must be feeling but their are several things NATO cant do and this keeps getting asked in the media and its makes NATO uncomfortable 

They cant enforce a no fly zone because this may lead to direct confrontation with Russia.

What about the Ukrainians surrendering to avoid further bloodshed ? Let the sanctions do their job

I realize  it sound like a cowardly choice but you can get the country back later, the West is behind Ukraine and they will be supported ?

The calculus here is that sanctions are always temporary, but territorial acquisitions are usually permanent. Putin is willing to pay a short-term price for a long-term territorial gain. The only feasible counter is to make Russia pay a high enough price that they back off. That only happens with sanctions in combination of expensive military hardware getting destroyed and Russian civilians dealing with a high casualty rate and a trashed economy. A direct involvement by NATO is out of the question, although we can certainly provide all types of indirect support.

[BruceVC]

18 minutes ago, rjshae said:

The calculus here is that sanctions are always temporary, but territorial acquisitions are usually permanent. Putin is willing to pay a short-term price for a long-term territorial gain. The only feasible counter is to make Russia pay a high enough price that they back off. That only happens with sanctions in combination of expensive military hardware getting destroyed and Russian civilians dealing with a high casualty rate and a trashed economy. A direct involvement by NATO is out of the question, although we can certainly provide all types of indirect support.

NATO is definitely out the question but do feel the pressure on Western countries to do more, I have stopped watching on DSTV for while because its a little depressing

I have wondered for any years how you can remove Putin because he is  not good for Russia and the right thing to do is let the Russian  people have a better leader. I couldn't think of anything reasonable but he has created his own problems 

[ComradeYellow]

1 hour ago, ComradeYellow said:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/03/europe/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-fire-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk&utm_content=2022-03-04T01%3A13%3A48&utm_term=link

The Hell with S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2, time for a reboot.  Shadow of Zaporizhzhia!  10x bigger and better and more destructive than Chernobyl.  10/10 game of the century.  Can we all agree that Ukrainian gaming will be better once this is all said and done?

Turns out this was all a fraud after all.  Local officials trying to instigate panic for more Western support and has in fact been condemned by Western nuclear experts as a political ploy.

Too bad in a morbid way, the gamer in me did want a pretense for a killer f*ng game in the future.