Ukraine Conflict - Der Weg zurück

[kanisatha]

On the potential for Putin using tac nukes, I am absolutely certain he will escalate to their use if pushed beyond his personal red lines. Putin views nukes as neither illogical nor immoral to use in the pursuit of his country's perceived interests. For him nukes are just another tool in his toolbox, no different than any other tool in his posession. And, the purpose for the existence of tools is to be used. That's why his warfighting doctrine explicitly lays out how Russia would ever use tac nukes.

Furthermore, the use of Russian nukes on Eastern European countries, followed by hesitance on the part of the three nuclear weapons possessing NATO countries to retaliate in kind because they don't want Russian retribution on their territory, will shatter Western unity and the alliance. Definitely something the Russians would like to see, no?

This is why I and some other scholars have advised that the West should find a way to give Putin an off-ramp from tit-for-tat escalation. This doesn't mean letting him off the hook for all the suffering he's needlessly unleashed upon Ukrainians. Russia must pay for that atrocity, perhaps through war reparations. But a reasonable accommodation of Russia is justified. My recommendation would be for the West to convince Zelenskiy to agree to forego NATO membership ever for Ukraine, perhaps through some constitutional mechanism similar to what exists with Finland. That way the West can still say the principle of not excluding any European country from pursuing NATO membership remains intact, but in reality Ukraine stays out of NATO. But in return Ukraine needs to get an explicit treaty from Russia guaranteeing its borders and territorial integrity and no future interference in Ukraine's internal affairs, a treaty that is also enjoined by the major Western powers and by the UN. And, Ukraine, like Finland, would be free to pursue other memberships, such as the EU, and also buy arms from whoever they want. This is what US diplomacy should be pursuing, but sadly Secretary Blinken just doesn't have the chops to go toe-to-toe with Lavrov, who is a master diplomat. Blinken is waaaay over his head in this crisis. If Biden were wise, this would be the perfect opportunity for him to prove his inaugural speech words wanting to have bipartisanship and call on the services of our own master diplomats, namely Republicans like James Baker or Condi Rice.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

There's Nazis in every virtually every military. Or fascists, (ethno)nationalists, and other assorted reactionaries if you insist on reading Nazi as specific to Germany or wanna quibble on it. They go into the military for training and access to weapons, it's pretty damn scary when you think about it, and no country wants to do a damn thing about it.

The existence of the Azov Battalion does not exuse the Russian invasion, denazification of Ukraine is as absurd as decommunization of Ukraine as a justification for the invasion.

[Zoraptor]

The problem with Azov is that it's a specifically nazi (ok, they don't call themselves nazis, they just use related symbology and share its ideology etc) formation. There will be nazis scattered through every military, but they're scattered rather than in a formalised part of the armed forces which was added wholesale despite already being nazi.

Ukraine also has an... interesting history when it comes to Bandera; albeit most of his ethnosuperior thuggery was aimed, ironically given the current situation, at Poles. He's an extraordinarily unpleasant guy to be naming streets and the like over, and there is definitely a lot of pretty odious hero worship of someone who is basically an extremely unpleasant mass murderer especially in the western bits of Ukraine.

[Chilloutman]

22 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

The problem with Azov is that it's a specifically nazi (ok, they don't call themselves nazis, they just use related symbology and share its ideology etc) formation. There will be nazis scattered through every military, but they're scattered rather than in a formalised part of the armed forces which was added wholesale despite already being nazi.

Ukraine also has an... interesting history when it comes to Bandera; albeit most of his ethnosuperior thuggery was aimed, ironically given the current situation, at Poles. He's an extraordinarily unpleasant guy to be naming streets and the like over, and there is definitely a lot of pretty odious hero worship of someone who is basically an extremely unpleasant mass murderer especially in the western bits of Ukraine.

who is this cheerfull fella? Oh its Putin friend from Wagner group. What are those tattoos of his? Hmm

 

https://getindianews.com/who-is-wagner-group-leader-dmitri-outkine-former-special-forces-personnel-involved-in-conflict/

Edited March 2, 2022 by Chilloutman

[Zoraptor]

Well yeah, and Putin has also said 'nice' things about Stalin too which won't have gone down to well in Ukraine much as Bandera doesn't really appeal to Russians.

Wagner isn't an official part of the Russian military though, and most of them are run of the mill mercenary ex soldiers- both occupations that disproportionately attracts the hard right. Not the same as a wholesale (c)overtly nazi formation being added to a country's army.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 hour ago, Zoraptor said:

The problem with Azov is that it's a specifically nazi (ok, they don't call themselves nazis, they just use related symbology and share its ideology etc) formation. There will be nazis scattered through every military, but they're scattered rather than in a formalised part of the armed forces which was added wholesale despite already being nazi.

Azov is especially bad, no question about that. Regardless, the existence of a Nazi battalion doesn't justify the invasion of Ukraine.

[kanisatha]

The Wagner Group isn't officially part of the Russian military but it is very much an extension of the Russian government. They are a "private" contractor in name only. They were created by Putin and directly work for Putin as an instrument he can wield in foreign countries, doing dirty and often illegal work such as assassinations, while giving Putin deniability as to his/Russia's involvement. The US, French and other governments correctly consider them to be a Russian government group rather than a private entity.

[BruceVC]

3 hours ago, Gorth said:

Are you sure about that?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/world/europe/putin-sanctions-proofing.html

"Crucially, the once-dominant dollar now accounts for only 16 percent of Russia’s currency reserves, which Moscow has replaced with euros, China’s renminbi, and gold."

 

Edit: $631 billion is the nominal value of Russia's currency reserves, but an insignificant part of it is US dollars (according NY Times)

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/russia-bonds-now-junk-set-to-reel-from-central-bank-sanctions

And this financial article says the war chest is $1 Trillion and $300  billion is stored in foreign exchanges  

So we dont know for certain its true size and how much is in $

But we do know for sure the Russian economy is crashing and the $ sanctions on the Russian central bank means it cant trade in $ which has additional unprecedented and deep long term consequence. To quote from the link

 

He estimated that about $300 billion is held in foreign-exchange swaps and deposits in foreign banks, and could be potentially trapped by sanctions. That may further restrict the country’s ability to access funds.

Sanctioning central bank reserves can turn a surplus agent into a deficit agent overnight,” Pozsar wrote in a separate note Sunday. “The Bank of Russia has neither Treasuries to repo with the new FIMA repo facility, nor dollar swap lines with the Fed, and if its assets are frozen, it can’t raise dollars to provide for its domestic banks.”

 

[BruceVC]

28 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

The Wagner Group isn't officially part of the Russian military but it is very much an extension of the Russian government. They are a "private" contractor in name only. They were created by Putin and directly work for Putin as an instrument he can wield in foreign countries, doing dirty and often illegal work such as assassinations, while giving Putin deniability as to his/Russia's involvement. The US, French and other governments correctly consider them to be a Russian government group rather than a private entity.

They also have a military presence in several African countries where they currently  propping up the government of Mali which was involved in coup. This coup in Mali has been criticized by African leadership but nothing has really been done about. Its easier for the AU to condemn racism on the borders of Poland and Hungary than to deal with the actual problems on the continent that lead to the citizens of about 10-12  Africans countries living in failed states and having no future....but at least these countries dont have racism 

http://saharareporters.com/2022/02/04/russian-mercenaries-supporting-mali’s-military-government-they’ll-worsen-situation-–-us

 

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by BruceVC

[Zoraptor]

43 minutes ago, kanisatha said:

The Wagner Group isn't officially part of the Russian military but it is very much an extension of the Russian government. They are a "private" contractor in name only. They were created by Putin and directly work for Putin as an instrument he can wield in foreign countries, doing dirty and often illegal work such as assassinations, while giving Putin deniability as to his/Russia's involvement. The US, French and other governments correctly consider them to be a Russian government group rather than a private entity.

There's also the small matter of mercenaries literally being illegal in Russia (unless they've changed the law recently) and Wagner still existing...

But they also aren't officially part of the Russian military, and aren't ideologically neo nazi in the same way Azov is.

[BruceVC]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ruble-sanctions/

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/01/russia-stock-etfs-continue-plunge-with-stock-market-closed.html

I have decided to not update this thread on a daily basis with another reality of the damage done to the Russian economy because its too much data. I will do it on a weekly basis 

But latest news is the Ruble is now worth less than 1 cent to the $ and the Russian stock exchange was closed for another day yesterday to prevent the mass selling we will see once it reopens 

 

[Katphood]

Apparently, some Ukrainian soldiers made Iranian students gather garbage before leaving for the border. A pretty shameless way of treating 'non-white' folks. Oh, well...

I guess it's their problem, that and the fact that I've reached a point not to give a toss about this war or any other war that happens from this point forward.

I mean who am I kidding, the first clear memory I  have of my childhood was a bomb blast that shattered a window and sent the glass shards into my mother arm and legs. Those were the last years of the Iran-Iraq war...the war of the cities...

 

Yup. Kill each other folks. As for me, I am gonna get high and give Dying Light - The Following a whirl.

 

P.S: Thank God I never got married! I clean half a kilo worth of cat excrement every day but if somebody decides to bomb my country(again) I have no wife or children to worry about. God...how decadent.

[BruceVC]

@Elerond and others

Here is an interesting image of where the EU can source new energy from once it  starts removing itself from dependency of Russian  gas and or other energy

 

 

 

 

[Darkpriest]

Meanwhile Oil hits 111, Wheat at over 1050.

If Oil hits 150 you will have serious recession, Atlanta FED already puts Q1 growth at 0.0

If Oil hits 200 we will experience 2008 on steroids.... 

 

Corn crossing 740, higher only during major financial crisises in the last 15 years

Food prices will soar this Q... 

 

We really better hope this ends very soon... I'm not sure how many of forum goers were working adults in 2008, but it was ugly... 

Edited March 2, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Pidesco]

48 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

@Elerond and others

Here is an interesting image of where the EU can source new energy from once it  starts removing itself from dependency of Russian  gas and or other energy

 

 

 

 

That is very incomplete. It is missing Norway, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Brazil, almost the entirety of Africa.

[pmp10]

9 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

That is very incomplete. It is missing Norway, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Brazil, almost the entirety of Africa.

Sure but wast majority is contracted long-term and increasing production will take years.
There are good reasons why fossil fuel imports were excluded from sanctions, and that is even before political backsliding begins. 

[Darkpriest]

A couple interesting economic related links, if you can read without a bias. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-hits-110-biden-begins-sotu-address-goldman-says-emergency-oil-release-wont-do-jack

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/game-over-russia-be-technical-default-within-hours

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/big-oil-turning-its-back-russia

[BruceVC]

51 minutes ago, Pidesco said:

That is very incomplete. It is missing Norway, Iran, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Brazil, almost the entirety of Africa.

I thought it seemed incomplete because  you should realistically  also remove Venezuela and Iran from that list until their current political reality  change 

And now that you mentioned this they also ignoring the US.

Thanks for the important feedback, I was sent this and I was sharing it so I need to let people know its incomplete 

 

[BruceVC]

40 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

A couple interesting economic related links, if you can read without a bias. 

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-hits-110-biden-begins-sotu-address-goldman-says-emergency-oil-release-wont-do-jack

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/game-over-russia-be-technical-default-within-hours

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/big-oil-turning-its-back-russia

I am glad you posted this  because I agree with almost everything they say and the reality of Russias technical default  is  guaranteed. I must apologize and  take back  what I said when I suggested " zerohedge  cant be trusted " because these articles confirm they can with certain views and predictions Tyler makes 

I would disagree that the oil price is definitely going to get to $150-$200 but its possible but we cant say its certain 

I hope you accept my apology and I hope we still getting married when I come to Poland for a visit  

[Darkpriest]

I'm ready to give Russians a benefit of a doubt on this claim. 

This harlot proved incompetent enough already in the past. 

 

[xzar_monty]

11 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

I'm ready to give Russians a benefit of a doubt on this claim. 

This harlot proved incompetent enough already in the past. 

 

The awfully sad irony is that the West certainly has had extraordinarily weak and poor leaders in the very recent past, and some countries have extremely poor leadership even as we speak. I mean, who's the prime minister of England? Would you, in any circumstances, be inclined to trust him?

[Sarex]

6 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The awfully sad irony is that the West certainly has had extraordinarily weak and poor leaders in the very recent past, and some countries have extremely poor leadership even as we speak. I mean, who's the prime minister of England? Would you, in any circumstances, be inclined to trust him?

Is England a factor either way?

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, xzar_monty said:

The awfully sad irony is that the West certainly has had extraordinarily weak and poor leaders in the very recent past, and some countries have extremely poor leadership even as we speak. I mean, who's the prime minister of England? Would you, in any circumstances, be inclined to trust him?

Yes I trust him on most things but not when he says " we didnt have parties during Covid " 

But he played a huge and constructive role  in getting the UK out of the EU and the Conservatives won that vote overwhelmingly that made BREXIT easier so clearly many people in the UK use to trust him as well

To be fair to Boris Johnson I think he gets unfairly criticized on certain things like the parties 

 

[bugarup]

Quote

I'm ready to give Russians a benefit of a doubt on this claim. 

I'm not, because when did they not play the blame game? "It's Ukraine's fault we invaded them because they were going to attack us so it was all self-defense!", "We are threatening to nuke the globe because some American official said mean things about us!" Like, of course this justifies everything you did, Russian warship, and port of Fornicate-Yourself is that a way.

[Gorth]

20 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

To be fair to Boris Johnson I think he gets unfairly criticized on certain things like the parties

Let me guess, you don't want to criticize him for lying through his teeth about... well just about everything he says?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/14/deceit-boris-johnson-liar-prime-minister-joke-mendacity

"he prime minister’s unhappy relationship with the truth is longstanding and embedded in his character. Veracity is trumped by ego. Most of his recent catalogue of woes – Brexit promises, dodgy peerages, sleazy colleagues, flat decorations, lockdown parties – could have been soothed had Johnson simply come clean early on, appeared frank and apologised. He seems psychologically unable to disentangle falsity from half-truth. A life spent in bland denials and upmarket jokes has lent him a high-risk belief in his invulnerability. From each laughable lie he could, in one bound, leap free."

 

No, he's still not as bad as our own beloved, glorious and inspirational leader here down under, but he also had a professional career in playing loose and fast with the truth, before he turned politician. It's not for nothing he's known as "Scott from Marketing"