teknoman2 Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 There is only one thing that matters: we will finally get to play IRL Fallout if this escalates. The words freedom and liberty, are diminishing the true meaning of the abstract concept they try to explain. The true nature of freedom is such, that the human mind is unable to comprehend it, so we make a cage and name it freedom in order to give a tangible meaning to what we dont understand, just as our ancestors made gods like Thor or Zeus to explain thunder. -Teknoman2- What? You thought it was a quote from some well known wise guy from the past? Stupidity leads to willful ignorance - willful ignorance leads to hope - hope leads to sex - and that is how a new generation of fools is born! We are hardcore role players... When we go to bed with a girl, we roll a D20 to see if we hit the target and a D6 to see how much penetration damage we did. Modern democracy is: the sheep voting for which dog will be the shepherd's right hand.
Zoraptor Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 24 minutes ago, Malcador said: Haven't seen that, but am trying to be charitable. Apparently it's very widespread, enough that Reuters specifically fact checked it, it turns out. (In terms of fact check it's probably more than just 'miscaptioning', at least for whoever used it first. Most of the subsequent ones will be people repeating something incorrect and not knowing better, but the first use must have been deliberate) 1
pmp10 Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 Welp. If that is going too far then I'm giving it 5 years until next episode set in Moldova.
kanisatha Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 Hadn't seen these posts earlier. Don't know how I missed this discussion. Russia's war in Ukraine falls squarely within my academic area of specialty. I've been giving news media interviews all morning, then talking with my students about it all afternoon. Will be discussing it on a panel of experts at my university next week. Everything that has happened has happened exactly as I've been predicting for a couple of months now. I even predicted the invasion would happen this very week, that it would be preceded by a Russian false-flag operation in the Donbas, and that the invasion would be full-on invasion and not some minor operation. I also predicted that the US response would be rather weak, and thus far have been proven right on that too. I fully expect the Ukrainians will put up a good fight and won't go down easily. Yes their navy and air force will get destroyed quickly, but on the ground they will fight for every inch of their country. Putin's goal is to completely take over the country, impose his puppet government in Kiev, and then have that government sign treaties giving Russia everything it wants. It won't work. The Russians are going to be bogged down in an insurgency everywhere within the country except the Donbas, and amazing right now are being supported by only a handful of other countries with the overwhelming majority being against them. The real question is exactly how far are Western countires willing to go to stand up to the madman in Moscow? Thus far only Boris Johnson has showed any real strength. Biden's feckless responses are especially puzzling as he has a long record of bombastic talk against Putin, about how he knows how to handle Putin and the like. And right now he has everyone in the political establishment, from conservative Republicans to liberal Democrats, all on the same page of doing everything short of joining the war to cripple the Russian economy. So why isn't he pulling that trigger? Should be the easiest decision ever. But mark my words. Ukraine is merely a test-run for Russia, China, and other aggressors in the world to guage how far the West will go to try and stop them. If Putin gets away with his naked aggression in Ukraine, in the very near future we will see China invading Taiwan and Russia invading the Baltic states, and very likely simultaneously in coordination. 2 1 1
Agiel Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) In light of Putin's claim of "de-Nazifying Ukraine" my mind was brought back to this vintage photo of a Soviet T-10 during the Prague Spring: Edited February 24, 2022 by Agiel Quote “Political philosophers have often pointed out that in wartime, the citizen, the male citizen at least, loses one of his most basic rights, his right to life; and this has been true ever since the French Revolution and the invention of conscription, now an almost universally accepted principle. But these same philosophers have rarely noted that the citizen in question simultaneously loses another right, one just as basic and perhaps even more vital for his conception of himself as a civilized human being: the right not to kill.” -Jonathan Littell <<Les Bienveillantes>> Quote "The chancellor, the late chancellor, was only partly correct. He was obsolete. But so is the State, the entity he worshipped. Any state, entity, or ideology becomes obsolete when it stockpiles the wrong weapons: when it captures territories, but not minds; when it enslaves millions, but convinces nobody. When it is naked, yet puts on armor and calls it faith, while in the Eyes of God it has no faith at all. Any state, any entity, any ideology that fails to recognize the worth, the dignity, the rights of Man...that state is obsolete." -Rod Serling
ShadySands Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 Been trying to get in touch with family in Ukraine but no luck so far 1 1 13 Free games updated 3/4/21
ComradeYellow Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, Agiel said: In light of Putin's claim of "de-Nazifying Ukraine" my mind was brought back to this vintage photo of a Soviet T-10 during the Prague Spring: Yeah that tank was totally NOT vandalized by Nazi's.
Malcador Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 27 minutes ago, ShadySands said: Been trying to get in touch with family in Ukraine but no luck so far Hopefully you hear from them. Whereabouts are they ? Wonder how they know the timing to that degree. Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra
ShadySands Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) 47 minutes ago, Malcador said: Hopefully you hear from them. Whereabouts are they ? Wonder how they know the timing to that degree. He's in Kiev so that's not good news e: the rest of his family left a while back but he's super pro-Ukraine and will likely fight back Edited February 25, 2022 by ShadySands Free games updated 3/4/21
Sarex Posted February 24, 2022 Posted February 24, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, kanisatha said: The Russians are going to be bogged down in an insurgency everywhere within the country except the Donbas I am not seeing the people of Ukraine being very willing to fight, it's a mass exodus right now, nor do I think he is dumb enough to believe that he can hold Ukraine. Best case scenario is that this ends quickly with surrender and that they sign the demilitarization agreement. I mean being defiant is all well and good, but all it got us was a destroyed infrastructure and 3 decades of economic setback and we were in a much better position as far as military was concerned. Edited February 24, 2022 by Sarex "because they filled mommy with enough mythic power to become a demi-god" - KP
ComradeYellow Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 46 minutes ago, Sarex said: Best case scenario is that this ends quickly with surrender and that they sign the demilitarization agreement. That's so 19th century. Invade country -> winner forces loser to sign terms favorable to winner -> GTFO and forget it ever happened.
kanisatha Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 49 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said: That's so 19th century. Invade country -> winner forces loser to sign terms favorable to winner -> GTFO and forget it ever happened. And it's not gonna' happen that easily. Even if somehow Putin gets those "surrender" documents, nobody in the world will see them as legitimate and so they won't carry any weight in international law. So the physical implementation of any such agreements will still have to rely on the presence of significant Russian occupation forces long-term. 1
kanisatha Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 The Ukrainians successfully counterattacked and destroyed a Soviet (that's what I'm calling them from now on to distinguish Putin and his backers from good Russians) air-mobile landing force at an air base near Kyiv. Way to go, Ukraine! Bleed the Soviets dry for every inch of Ukrainian territory and every Ukrainian life. 10,000 rifles handed out to civilians in Kyiv today. Beautiful! Saw actual footage of some Soviet T-90 tanks burning. Thank you Eastern European NATO countries that sent those Javelin ATGMs to Ukraine recently. 1,700 honorable and decent Russian anti-war protesters beaten up and arrested in Moscow. 2
Malcador Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 Ah, well I guess a relief that the airfield battle's settled. VDV withdrew to the woods, I had read. Strange decision. Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra
Agiel Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 Few could resist making the crack that the Russian desantniki tried to go a bridge too far with Antonov airfield Quote “Political philosophers have often pointed out that in wartime, the citizen, the male citizen at least, loses one of his most basic rights, his right to life; and this has been true ever since the French Revolution and the invention of conscription, now an almost universally accepted principle. But these same philosophers have rarely noted that the citizen in question simultaneously loses another right, one just as basic and perhaps even more vital for his conception of himself as a civilized human being: the right not to kill.” -Jonathan Littell <<Les Bienveillantes>> Quote "The chancellor, the late chancellor, was only partly correct. He was obsolete. But so is the State, the entity he worshipped. Any state, entity, or ideology becomes obsolete when it stockpiles the wrong weapons: when it captures territories, but not minds; when it enslaves millions, but convinces nobody. When it is naked, yet puts on armor and calls it faith, while in the Eyes of God it has no faith at all. Any state, any entity, any ideology that fails to recognize the worth, the dignity, the rights of Man...that state is obsolete." -Rod Serling
Gorth Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 4 hours ago, kanisatha said: Russia invading the Baltic states, and very likely simultaneously in coordination. One problem with this last bit... those are NATO members. Nothing short of military engagement from NATO's side will save NATO as an organisation, if it comes to that. Edit: If NATO doesn't respond with full military confrontation to an invasion of the Baltic countries, Putin will have dismantled NATO even faster than Napoleon did the Holy Roman Empire. 1 “He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein
kanisatha Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Gorth said: One problem with this last bit... those are NATO members. Nothing short of military engagement from NATO's side will save NATO as an organisation, if it comes to that. Edit: If NATO doesn't respond with full military confrontation to an invasion of the Baltic countries, Putin will have dismantled NATO even faster than Napoleon did the Holy Roman Empire. Yes they are NATO members, which is why the test-run is using Ukraine. It's always the temptation to believe that if you can go so far and get away with it, then maybe you can go a little further. It doesn't really matter that Article 5 guarantees extend to those states. What matters is whether Putin is convinced the other NATO members will suffer sacrifices to ensure those guarantees for three tiny states with limited strategic value on the fringe of NATO territory, and also whether other NATO countries will truly go beyond lip-service vis-a-vis those guarantees. It is always about perceptions. And I can see Putin coming away with the perception that given how timid the West has been thus far, their claims of NATO solidarity and Article 5 are all bark and no bite. 1
kanisatha Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Malcador said: Ah, well I guess a relief that the airfield battle's settled. VDV withdrew to the woods, I had read. Strange decision. Settled for now. I'm sure they'll be back. The Soviets are like a bad rash that never truly goes away.
Malcador Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 21 minutes ago, kanisatha said: Settled for now. I'm sure they'll be back. The Soviets are like a bad rash that never truly goes away. Well, I doubt the Russians are going to give up after one setback. Looks like more cruise strikes on Kiev tonight, Ukraine says they down a Russian bomber. All in all they seem to be doing ok, the way they were talking about them in the media here you'd have thought it was totally hopeless. Edited February 25, 2022 by Malcador Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra
ComradeYellow Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 LOL Putin isn't Soviet, he's like old School Russian Empire with maybe a touch of Soviet or old times sake. Russia will be Soviet once they elect Zyuganov, then they can implement proper economic reforms like China and distance themselves completely from Western liberal capitalism.
Zoraptor Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 11 minutes ago, Malcador said: Ukraine says they down a Russian bomber. Fog of war in full effect. Russian bomber --> Cruise missile 10 minutes later --> now Ukraine has accidentally shot down one of their own planes. For what it's worth the photo associated with it is almost certainly debris from a Kalibr cruise missile engine, but there also seems to be footage of flares being deployed which a Kalibr wouldn't do... so yeah. Has to be said, just about every photo of a destroyed vehicle is being labelled as Russian, often when it demonstrably isn't. eg: Only two things wrong. (1) That isn't a T-72, it's a BMP (and it's really obvious given there's a BTR next to it for scale, and you can see the tiny turret/ gun to the side of the wreck) and (2) you can tell from the camo it's Ukrainian, not Russian. You'd hope it also wasn't destroyed by a Javelin, given the last fact. 1
BruceVC Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, kanisatha said: And it's not gonna' happen that easily. Even if somehow Putin gets those "surrender" documents, nobody in the world will see them as legitimate and so they won't carry any weight in international law. So the physical implementation of any such agreements will still have to rely on the presence of significant Russian occupation forces long-term. Yes their is no chance of this invasion ever being recognized or forgotten about by most of the world. Exactly like the sanctions over Crimea this will never go away until Russia pulls out of Ukraine and stops trying to recreate its own borders for Ukraine Russia will defeat the Ukrainian army, thats inevitable but the question for me is what next? Will we see a Russian puppet state and some sort of occupation? An occupation will become a nightmare for Russia especially with a hostile population and the increased sanctions Edited February 25, 2022 by BruceVC 1 "Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is and saw Virtue in her shape how lovely: and pined his loss” John Milton "We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.” - George Bernard Shaw "What counts in life is not the mere fact that we have lived. It is what difference we have made to the lives of others that will determine the significance of the life we lead" - Nelson Mandela
Malcador Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) CNN reporting it was a Ukrainian Su-27 shot down by a Russian SAM over Kiev. Yikes, if true. Also is still a Russian jet, but could be a Ukranian tanker. Pretty large explosion, too. Edited February 25, 2022 by Malcador Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra
Zoraptor Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 (edited) Yeah, that's a very big and very sustained fireball for a Su-27, though it's definitely distorted perception wise by it being night and presumably illuminating its own smoke. OTOH, it being a tanker would be ludicrous, in terms of tactics. Edit: It's definitely a Ukrainian Su-27, there's some fuselage wreckage and it's Ukrainian colours. Edited February 25, 2022 by Zoraptor
rjshae Posted February 25, 2022 Posted February 25, 2022 7 hours ago, pmp10 said: Welp. If that is going too far then I'm giving it 5 years until next episode set in Moldova. Well, if that's illegal then the US obviously went way too far in sending armaments to England prior to entering World War 2. Lend-Lease and Military Aid to the Allies in the Early Years of World War II 1 "It has just been discovered that research causes cancer in rats."
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