Ukraine conflict - im Westen nichts Neues

[ComradeYellow]

20 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Do you think China will use this time to attack Taiwan? 

 

Normally I would say 'No', the Chinese are far too cautious and mature for that right now but I never expected Russia to invade Ukraine like it did so at this point everything is up in the air (missile joke!)

However, geo strategically I think it would make sense to let the Ukie invasion run its course and then when public opinion succumbs to its usual amnesia, China then invades Taiwan as Russia plays the passive supporter.  Makes sense right?

Edited February 24, 2022 by ComradeYellow

[HoonDing]

[pmp10]

Seems Ukraine is losing airports all over the country to airborne landing and there is a rumor of a major para drop heading for Kiev.
At this rate the capital might not last until Monday.

[ComradeYellow]

Caitoz offers 12 fair and balanced thoughts on the whole ordeal.

[Chilloutman]

If Ukraine holds some parts of its territory by Monday I think it will be small miracle

[Raithe]

[BruceVC]

22 minutes ago, Raithe said:

Raithe only you could find something like this 

[pmp10]

36 minutes ago, Chilloutman said:

If Ukraine holds some parts of its territory by Monday I think it will be small miracle

Do surrounded pockets and big cities count?
I guess urban combat will be a good indication if Ukrainian population will resist. 

[Darkpriest]

Possible? 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-presented-menu-options-massive-cyberattacks-against-russia

[Raithe]

11 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Raithe only you could find something like this 

Some people just have a talent....

[HoonDing]

Russian troops in Chernobyl. This is one hell of a S.T.A.L.K.E.R. larp.

Edited February 24, 2022 by HoonDing

[Darkpriest]

So, no extraordinary sanctions. 

Financial markets cut-off (Russia is prepared with reserves and they have a lot of gold mines) 

Tech exports to Russia (Russia will have to buy from China or keep using own tech) 

Sanctions on individuals (nothing new, will be spending more money in Turkey, Egypt, China, South America) 

 

[Mamoulian War]

8 hours ago, Chilloutman said:

well I guess we have WW3 on our hands and I hoped I would not live the day

 

Bruce in this time sanctions does mean nothing. You should check what lead Germany to start WW2

 

I am pissed that EU is meek again as always

Yeah the response so far is very lacklustre, if we will continue this way next few days, Taiwan will be next... The harshest and most surprising condemnation of Russian attack, which I've seen today was from the mouth of Zeman... One of the biggest pro-russian politicians in EU, the western leaders, with the exception of Boris Johnson were just doing more or less the same as up until now, with little bit more of peekaboo towards Putin... The only way how to get Russia out of Ukraine is to block all of the russian mafia money. All other sanctions will have no impact on Putins rule... But looks like west is again afraid, because "would somebody think about the bank profits, please?"...

[pmp10]

10 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

So, no extraordinary sanctions. 

Financial markets cut-off (Russia is prepared with reserves and they have a lot of gold mines) 

Tech exports to Russia (Russia will have to buy from China or keep using own tech) 

Sanctions on individuals (nothing new, will be spending more money in Turkey, Egypt, China, South America) 

 

There was also the seizing of bank assets but that doesn't improve the response much.
No will in EU to cut SWIFT and energy sanctions also seem of the table.
Russian propaganda will have great time with this.

Worse - what if Putin retaliates with energy sanctions of his own.

[Darkpriest]

7 minutes ago, pmp10 said:

There was also the seizing of bank assets but that doesn't improve the response much.
No will in EU to cut SWIFT and energy sanctions also seem of the table.
Russian propaganda will have great time with this.

Worse - what if Putin retaliates with energy sanctions of his own.

He won't, because that could push EU to accept swoft sanctions. 

There is a reason why gas is still flowing through Ukraine even durimg armed conflict there. 

[Elerond]

Oil and gas are sacred, which is why there was constantly flow of oil and gas even worst moments of cold war. 

Main reason is that once the flow is cut down, there is very high change that it will never again go up

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Well this was a ****ty thing to wake up to and it gets worse by the hour. I hope some sense hits everyone and this ends without thousands of bodies, but being hopeful seems too optimistic.

On the brightside, if the invasion of Ukraine really is the Star Citizen of geopolitics, then that means someday Star Citizen will be released.

[Malcador]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/western-allies-see-kyiv-falling-to-russian-forces-within-hours

"Kyiv may fall to Russian forces in a matter of hours as Ukraine’s air defenses have been effectively eliminated, according to a senior Western intelligence official. "

That's got to boost morale.

[rjshae]

Putin will need this to be a short war. Modern military battles are expensive and the West can significantly outspend the mediocre Russian economy. Plus we're sanctioning their banks, so they'll probably need to print money to keep it funded (unless they get loans from China). The longer this lasts, the worse it gets for Putin.

[Chilloutman]

well it depends if Putin want to raze it to the ground with air strikes. AA is pretty useless against ground forces you need to occupy cities

[Darkpriest]

 

Some news:

“"" "" "" "" "" "" 

 

Russian state media is in the evening Thursday (local time) citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to say that Moscow is offering Kiev "terms of surrender". Meanwhile...

WESTERN ALLIES SEE KYIV FALLING TO RUSSIAN FORCES WITHIN HOURS

Peskov said: The president formulated his vision of what we would expect from Ukraine in order for the so-called ‘red-line’ problems to be resolved. This is neutral status, and this is a refusal to deploy weapons.

And further: 

The operation has its goals – they must be achieved. The president said that all decisions have been made, and the goals will be achieved,” Peskov continued, suggesting that, if Kiev were to agree to meet the demands, the current military attack on Ukraine could be called off.

 

https://www.rt.com/russia/550505-kremlin-presents-demands-kiev/

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Zoraptor]

8 hours ago, Lexx said:

The way I understood it, cutting russia off of SWIFT is dangerous, as it will strengthen their own financial system that they are building up with china for some years already, and it will give them more incentive to disrupt the SWIFT system with cyber attacks.

Yeah. The US definitely penetrated SWIFT, and Russia stole all the CIA's hacking tools and documentation. That almost certainly involved SWIFT and other relevant things like Intel's Management Engine.

A hacked SWIFT with Russia and China not using it would be a disastrous own goal.

7 hours ago, Malcador said:

It is interesting to see all the combat footage, although I'm beginning to be of the mind that 50% of what I'm seeing is false.

Only 50%? I've seen at least 3 separate people claiming footage of something as well known as the Tianjin explosion was in Ukraine. Can't trust almost anything, especially when they are both using similar and in some cases the same equipment.

The Kamov shoot down seems genuine, since Ukraine has none of those unless they inherited a prototype or something. Are those destroyed BMPs Russian or Ukrainian though? Is it footage from Slavyansk in 2014? Can't tell, unless you're willing to invest way too much time in it.

6 hours ago, Katphood said:

Sort of off-topic: is this going to delay Stalker 2?!

Yes, it's delayed.

5 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Is it? 

Well still shows potentially a ppower of drones and assumetric warfare.

Yes, it is. If nothing else Russia doesn't operate T-62s or T-55s any more, while Syria still has heaps.

Drones are pretty much useless without air superiority. You don't even have to shoot them down, the wake of a jet will bring most of them down. Should also be noted that despite all the Turkish footage put out in Syria they achieved none of their stated goals of reversing Syrian army gains, and actually lost the strategically critical Saraqib despite the drones.

3 hours ago, pmp10 said:

Seems Ukraine is losing airports all over the country to airborne landing and there is a rumor of a major para drop heading for Kiev.
At this rate the capital might not last until Monday.

I'd be skeptical of them being attempts to permanently seize airports at this point. Send in special forces, blow up planes, SAMs, radars and other infrastructure, leave. A lot more effective if you want things done quickly and effectively than bombing etc. The cruise missile only attack by the US on Shayrat in Syria for example didn't even stop it being used for a day. They'd more likely be special forces attacks like the Pebble Island raid, from the Falkland's War.

The airport near Kiev might be an exception, though it's difficult to see why you'd take it if you're expecting ground troops there in a few hours. Far better to take any bridges etc that can be blown up. You can't land planes there if there's artillery about, but you can land helicopters anywhere.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Zoraptor

[Malcador]

Announcements about Hostomel are confused to the point of comedy. The Russians, take it, Ukrainians say they took it back then say fighting is still ongoing, then they say they took it, then no, fighting it still ongoing.  

8 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

Only 50%? I've seen at least 3 separate people claiming footage of something as well known as the Tianjin explosion was in Ukraine. Can't trust almost anything, especially when they are both using similar and in some cases the same equipment.

Haven't seen that, but am trying to be charitable.

[pmp10]

Apparently Macron was talking just talking to Putin.
After the previous 'personal assurances' and 'torture by talking' this must make for an awkward conversation. 

[Mamoulian War]

No clue if this is true, or just positive propaganda to boost Ukraine morale, but I wish, this is true, and more Russian troops take this approach...