The All Things Political Topic - Those who do not move, do not notice their chains

[Darkpriest]

As I said, the only thing that Putin would have gained from a conflict is the piece of land, bridging directly to Crimea. 

Crimea is never going back to Ukraine, the demographics there were and are predominantly Russians, and it would be insane to think that Russians would lock out themselves from their black sea fleet base... It's like asking US to abandon Hawaii

I'm expecting some talks bilaterally and then going to UN, to have a UN overseen referendum on Donbas by populace there. First though, you have to pump threat levels to 11, make markets and economies suffer, and have people panic. 

As I also said, it is a very convinient topic distracting from issues at home, with various labor shortages, supply chain distruptions caused by policies restricting people to work, amd extreme inflation, including increasing gas price at a pump

[BruceVC]

8 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

As I said, the only thing that Putin would have gained from a conflict is the piece of land, bridging directly to Crimea. 

Crimea is never going back to Ukraine, the demographics there were and are predominantly Russians, and it would be insane to think that Russians would lock out themselves from their black sea fleet base... It's like asking US to abandon Hawaii

I'm expecting some talks bilaterally and then going to UN, to have a UN overseen referendum on Donbas by populace there. First though, you have to pump threat levels to 11, make markets and economies suffer, and have people panic. 

As I also said, it is a very convinient topic distracting from issues at home, with various labor shortages, supply chain distruptions caused by policies restricting people to work, amd extreme inflation, including increasing gas price at a pump

I really dont think the possible invasion of Ukraine is a distraction created by Putin  and the response by the US and  Biden is because of  domestic problems within the US 

The US and the EU is more than capable of dealing with foreign and local problems concurrently 

Edited January 28, 2022 by BruceVC

[Darkpriest]

7 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

I really dont think the possible invasion of Ukraine is a distraction created by Putin  and the response by the US and  Biden is because of  domestic problems within the US 

The US and the EU is more than capable of dealing with foreign and local problems concurrently 

Markets do not agree with this statement... 

[Darkpriest]

Also, US policy is very short sighted... 

 

Making China and Russia ties even closer. 

https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1486711175903531014?s=20&t=2QiRtY5phnixdK6LW8upCA

Edited January 28, 2022 by Darkpriest

[BruceVC]

10 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Markets do not agree with this statement... 

Markets react to  degrees of sentiment, this is well known. You shouldn't read too much into how markets initially respond to certain geopolitical situations because their is generally an " overreaction " which corrects itself

Its not the same as long-term political policy success or failures. So we should separate this current Ukraine issue from criticism and issues around the Biden presidency

 

[Darkpriest]

4 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

Markets react to  degrees of sentiment, this is well known. You shouldn't read too much into how markets initially respond to certain geopolitical situations because their is generally an " overreaction " which corrects itself

Its not the same as long-term political policy success or failures. So we should separate this current Ukraine issue from criticism and issues around the Biden presidency

 

I'm talking on failures with domestic policies... Internationally it is just an act first analtyze later approach by a lot of algo based trading, but the issues with policies persist. We've just hit the peak growth, and it will be downhill from here on now. Inflation hitting low incomers, high gas price and oil price that crunch people on energy costs as well, supply issues due to overly restrict mandates persisting for a long time + overly long state support with various 'stimies' lowering labor participation, etc. (i could write a book on this and it all was predictable as i was mentioning that those 10-11 months ago even here) 

[Darkpriest]

Btw, pray that tumultous weather this year will not drive food prices even higher. 

 

That's how unrest grows into a dangerous level (when people can barely afford essentials at a median income level) 

 

Edit: example of a more sticky food price inflation

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/business/oscar-mayer-hot-dogs-velveeta-cheese-kraft-heinz/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/farms-are-failing-as-fertilizer-prices-drive-up-cost-of-food-11642770182

Plus some report from dec

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

Edited January 28, 2022 by Darkpriest

[Zoraptor]

10 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Also, US policy is very short sighted...

Well yeah. If you actually do want to 'contain' China then you have to deal with Russia. If you want to deal with Russia you have to, well, deal with Russia. That means compromise, not dictating terms. The complete lack of any sense at all that Russia has genuine concerns- and such ludicrous spectacles as simultaneously saying that NATO forces can deploy anywhere they want, it's their right, but Russia cannot deploy troops in their own country if they're too close to a border- shows the diplomatic equivalence of sociopathy or is a deliberate policy to keep crises going. And let's be frank, since this current circus is a six monthly to annual affair every time an exercise is held it's the latter.

There's plenty of mid term benefits for the US from stoking tensions with Russia though. As previous, it keeps the alliance they are head of at the forefront and gives it a purpose. Economically, a response would be shouldered in massive disproportion by economic rival Europe in such terms as losing 40% of their gas supply; to be replaced mostly by far more expensive US supplies, of course, and carried by ships that don't exist yet. The sanctions and threat of sanctions over Nord Stream 2 were designed entirely to keep Russia paying Ukraine for transit rights, keep veto over the supply and impose a further cost on everyone due to Ukraine stealing so much of it. And of course there's the perpetual threat of using- European run, not US run world standard- SWIFT as a weapon. Which would immediately, of course, make it not the world standard any more to anyone who isn't a US proxy. Militarily... well it isn't going to come to shooting, unless the Russians double the number of troops, but you still get a nice bump for US arms suppliers.

[Darkpriest]

IF for some reason US would be stupid enough to impose SWIFT ban, it would be a very short lived victory and a death knell to EU economies... 

Energy would skyrocket as the gas wpuld stop flowing, trading would halt and no sales to Russia (amd Germany and a lot if EU countries do much more business with Russia than with US) 

Russia would implement and go live with their own settlement system, which they've been working since they were threathened once with SWIFT during the Obama era. 

If most of Asia would go onto the Russian standard of settlements, including China, the whole new block would strong arm Western economies to adopt the Russian/Chinese standard or kiss natural resources and manufacturing goodbye... 

The fallout in terms of such created economic crisis would be massive. 

Russians and Chinese can live without Western economies - at lower standard, but they would be able to endure... The Western countries, and especially EU, would not be able to cope with it. Populace is so entitled to luxury style, plentiful of resources they can consume, etc., that lack of it would cause heavy social unrest and a more militant tribalizm. 

[Darkpriest]

I guess rising Oil prices made WH reconsider their policy and are now telling to drill more oil!!! 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/01/27/oil-gas-leasing-biden-climate/

[Gfted1]

2 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Energy would skyrocket as the gas wpuld stop flowing...

What!? No way! It was fiercely defended in the last thread that Russia would only supply cheaper gas than the US, not immediately use it as a weapon! Im flabbergasted.

[ComradeYellow]

7 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Russians and Chinese can live without Western economies -

In a perfect world, we could completely decouple and go our merry way like in the Cold War.

However, there's just too many nuances in todays world to completely decouple so we're probably gonna have to settle with some kind of Cold Peace and  semi decoupling.

 

KFC is the most popular fast food in China, and even though it is largely localized and it's menu is vastly different than the American variant, KFC is still an American company and would have to break off from headquarters and create a new one in China, and would be extremely difficult to do.

Ah, but but of course that's when stories like this start popping up xD

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/chinese-government-deems-kfc-too-134200331.html

Edited January 29, 2022 by ComradeYellow

[rjshae]

15 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

Also, US policy is very short sighted... 

Making China and Russia ties even closer. 

https://twitter.com/HuXijin_GT/status/1486711175903531014?s=20&t=2QiRtY5phnixdK6LW8upCA

Has that ever mattered?

[ComradeYellow]

12 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Has that ever mattered?

Sorry to intercept here but....kinda!

There's a reason Nixon went to Beijing in 1972, to improve U.S.-China relations in order to weaken the Soviet state which ultimately proved successful.  Some members of Trump's strategic team wanted to do  the same thing and improve relations with Russia in order to weaken China but he was not allowed to for domestic reasons.  Will it ultimately matter if Russia-China ties grow stronger....I dunno, I don't have a crystal ball but it certainly doesn't help the situation!

[BruceVC]

4 hours ago, rjshae said:

Has that ever mattered?

No not really, these " alliances " between Russia and China only make a difference when it comes to the veto   in the UNSC

Its not like they have real ideological similarities except for  their leadership denying  their citizens different  degrees of human rights and freedoms  and they also both feel threatened and anxious by the concept of Democracy, accountability  and the idea  of  citizens having choice

 

[ComradeYellow]

14 minutes ago, BruceVC said:

No not really, these " alliances " between Russia and China only make a difference when it comes to the veto   in the UNSC

Its not like they have real ideological similarities except for  their leadership denying  their citizens different  degrees of human rights and freedoms  and they also both feel threatened and anxious by the concept of Democracy, accountability  and the idea  of  citizens having choice

 

Russia has a Democracy actually and it's about as corrupt as America's democracy, they do have various political parties.  The Russian population is just more right wing in general than populations of Europe and that's why they hate them really. That, and Cold War sentiments don't die easily.  U.S. is about split on Right vs. Left (with probably more independents mixed into the crowd than we think).  People in China have plenty of individual freedom and their government encourages it but their population and government favors rule of law over anarchism. 

Again, it's not a black and white situation.

Edited January 29, 2022 by ComradeYellow

[Gorth]

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/1/28/ukraine-accuses-us-of-hurting-economy-by-stoking-panic-over-war
 

Tl;dr; Ukraine blames the US for the current mess and it’s hurting Ukraines economy 

[BruceVC]

31 minutes ago, ComradeYellow said:

Russia has a Democracy actually and it's about as corrupt as America's democracy, they do have various political parties.  The Russian population is just more right wing in general than populations of Europe and that's why they hate them really. That, and Cold War sentiments don't die easily.  U.S. is about split on Right vs. Left (with probably more independents mixed into the crowd than we think).  People in China have plenty of individual freedom and their government encourages it but their population and government favors rule of law over anarchism. 

Again, it's not a black and white situation.

I know what your new job is, its " stand-up comedian " , I have always maintained you very funny so thanks for the early morning humor. Its appreciated 

Its not a very accurate point to suggest the autocratic  Russian system of government is similar to any true  Constitutional Democracy in the world....its not even remotely true. You generally dont find journalists getting killed and arrested , opposition party members being poisoned and independent  media houses getting closed in the US ?

" people in China have plenty of individual freedom " 

[Darkpriest]

12 hours ago, Gfted1 said:

What!? No way! It was fiercely defended in the last thread that Russia would only supply cheaper gas than the US, not immediately use it as a weapon! Im flabbergasted.

So far Russians have been fullfilling their contract. The difference is, EU for some reason did not build up reserves during summer time, and now with cold weather this winter have much increased demand.

I guess planners hoped for milder winter due to generally warmer weather during the year? 

Russia is simply unwilling to go much over the contracted capacity without a new transit route aka NordStream 2.

If they would be cut off from SWIFT how do you imagine they would be getting paid?  Airplanes with cash or gold? The immediate response would be to cease all transit until new settlement protocol would be adopted. No payments, no gas.... Simple as that and logical, right? 

[Gfted1]

43 minutes ago, Darkpriest said:

Simple as that and logical, right? 

Exactly.

[Elerond]

5 hours ago, Darkpriest said:

 

If they would be cut off from SWIFT how do you imagine they would be getting paid?  Airplanes with cash or gold? The immediate response would be to cease all transit until new settlement protocol would be adopted. No payments, no gas.... Simple as that and logical, right? 

Russia has already seen this as possible scenario and created alternative SPFS, also EU has planned INSTEX to trade with countries that aren't part of SWIFT

[Zoraptor]

INSTEX at least theoretically is up and running isn't it? That's what is meant to be used to trade with Iran so the Euros can say that they aren't abrogating the JCPOA.

SWIFT really ought to go anyway*, since it's well known that its security is compromised; not something you want for an essential financial service. At the moment it's in no one's interests to make an issue of that because it's important to everyone, cut Russia off but it becomes a lot less important for her and some obvious confidence collapsing jiggery pokery visited on SWIFT would be a perfect parting shot.

*or at least get a decent revision.

[rjshae]

On 1/28/2022 at 11:09 AM, Zoraptor said:

Well yeah. If you actually do want to 'contain' China then you have to deal with Russia. If you want to deal with Russia you have to, well, deal with Russia. That means compromise, not dictating terms. The complete lack of any sense at all that Russia has genuine concerns- and such ludicrous spectacles as simultaneously saying that NATO forces can deploy anywhere they want, it's their right, but Russia cannot deploy troops in their own country if they're too close to a border- shows the diplomatic equivalence of sociopathy or is a deliberate policy to keep crises going. And let's be frank, since this current circus is a six monthly to annual affair every time an exercise is held it's the latter.

Nobody has suggested that Russia could not move their troops around their own country. Where do you get that idea?

If Putin had never made a land grab of the Crimea, then they may have had more of a case with the West. As it is, agreeing to Putin's terms at this point amounts to appeasement, and we all know how well that works with autocrats. If Putin wants to make a deal to keep the Ukraine out of NATO, what does NATO get in return? It's Putin that is holding Ukraine hostage, not the other way around.

[Zoraptor]

6 minutes ago, rjshae said:

Nobody has suggested that Russia could not move their troops around their own country. Where do you get that idea?

Have you listened to/ read any of the rhetoric that has been spouted recently? What exactly do you think telling Russia to withdraw their troops is, apart from telling them where they can deploy on their own soil?

It's most definitely seen that way by NATO when the situation is reversed, and NATO gets decidedly pissy when Russia tells them not to deploy close to her borders. Of course, those are purely defensive deployments due to Russian aggression, anything the Russians do in response to NATO actions is just more aggression...

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If Putin had never made a land grab of the Crimea, then they may have had more of a case with the West.

And if NATO had never invaded Serbia...

Kosovo predates Crimea, and unlike Crimea had zero legality per international law. That was a conflict in which British troops were- literally literally- ordered to attack Russian ones by NATO Command, specifically by General Wesley Clark. Fortunately that beautiful fellow James Blunt ignored the order as being what it was- completely insane- and got backed up Sir Mike "I'm not going to start World War 3 for you" Jackson. But still, these are the sort of things Russia remembers; its allies are fine to partition- completely outside of international law too, the only argument was 'special case' not that it was actually legal- and its troops fine to attack.

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As it is, agreeing to Putin's terms at this point amounts to appeasement, and we all know how well that works with autocrats.

That will always be the case, whatever Russia's leadership. That was the case when the decidedly west friendly Yeltsin was in power too- that Pristina incident was while Yeltsin was President. And the Open Door policy that NATO holds so very dear never applied to Russia even when Yeltsin applied.

Truth of the matter is, when Russia has weak leaders like Yeltsin NATO ignores her. When she has a strong leader like Putin they at least pay attention. Lesson learned. And in either case NATO has been persistently aggressive in both tone and conduct, more so than Russia by any objective measure.

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If Putin wants to make a deal to keep the Ukraine out of NATO, what does NATO get in return? It's Putin that is holding Ukraine hostage, not the other way around.

NATO is a military alliance, that's its entire raison d'être, and is localised to the North Atlantic. It gets nothing, indeed a proper détente with Russia literally makes it irrelevant. That doesn't matter at all though, unless the existence and necessity of NATO is itself an intrinsic justification, which it isn't. The countries that make up NATO get a decent amount though. Less military spending. Better leverage on China. A Russia less likely to stir trouble on the principle of the matter and a decent bit more.

[Gorth]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60185733

Boris Johnson desperately needs a war too to distract from trouble at home...

"I have ordered our armed forces to prepare to deploy across Europe next week, ensuring we are able to support our Nato allies on land, at sea and in the air."

 

On a more serious note, the BBC did some detective work and a bit of investigative journalism. Turns out Djokovic not only lied about his whereabouts, it also looks like his covid test results are forgeries, made by the Serbian state to enable him to play....

https://www.bbc.com/news/59999541

Mr Djokovic was tested in Serbia, and received his results from the Institute of Public Health of Serbia.

All these test results have a unique confirmation code.

We wanted to check whether these numbers are generated in strict chronological order in a single national database at the time of processing.

If so, it would bring into question why the earlier test had a higher serial number.

So we collected data from as many Serbian test certificates as we could to plot these confirmation codes on a timeline.

 

For those who don't want to read all the graphs and texts, the conclusion by the researchers investigations was, Djokovic's positive result was from the time between 25th to 28th of December, not the claimed 16th of December (i.e. his positive test was after his negative test, which was supposed to prove he was no longer infected at least two weeks before traveling to Australia). All nicely forged by the Serbian Health Institute.

Nothing new I guess, politics and sports do seem to have trouble staying away from each other.