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Politics 20/20 now with extra hindsight!


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1 hour ago, 213374U said:

Oof. Imagine a bank wanting to disassociate itself from you because you are hurting their image in the post-2008 world.

And that bank being DB... They are literally the most infamous bank in the world.

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1 hour ago, Sarex said:

And that bank being DB... They are literally the most infamous bank in the world.

I'd give that particular trophy to Goldman-Sachs but yes, the DB isn't that far behind. Much of the very deserved reputation inextricably linked to Josef Ackermann, someone who paid his way to freedom. Should be behind bars somewhere for the rest of his life. Makes me wonder if lynch mobs are really always a bad idea (they are and I'm not really serious). :p

And Bruce wonders why the world doesn't like bankers.

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Give me ears, so I hear
Give me love, so I know what love is
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3 hours ago, IndiraLightfoot said:

Just one more turn... *Darn! Gandhi nuked me in the year 2021*

That game was pure genius... worth running an Amiga emulator for 😎

 

 

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“He who joyfully marches to music in rank and file has already earned my contempt. He has been given a large brain by mistake, since for him the spinal cord would surely suffice.” - Albert Einstein

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It may bode poorly for Biden that Trump has won Florida so early.

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Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

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5 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

It may bode poorly for Biden that Trump has won Florida so early.

Has he won it tho?  I'm watching PBS via YouTube and they haven't "called" it - although I have seen one website that's colored FL red.  it's just very close with Trump having a slight edge, like 1% or less.  eg, it might be likely but it's not really official quite yet.

“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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1 hour ago, LadyCrimson said:

Has he won it tho?  I'm watching PBS via YouTube and they haven't "called" it - although I have seen one website that's colored FL red.  it's just very close with Trump having a slight edge, like 1% or less.  eg, it might be likely but it's not really official quite yet.

Almost certainly, based on analytics breaking down the voting tendencies on a precinct by precinct basis. It's all but impossible for Biden to catch up.

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Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

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Well, that figures I guess.

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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So, can anyone explain this to me? Biden seems to be winning for now, but the map is more red than blue. Is he winning in states with more votes? Or is he winning in the blue states with a bigger advantage?

election.png

Edited by InsaneCommander

sign.jpg

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1 hour ago, InsaneCommander said:

So, can anyone explain this to me? Biden seems to be winning for now, but the map is more red than blue. Is he winning in states with more votes? Or is he winning in the blue states with a bigger advantage?

election.png

Each state has their own individual amount of electoral votes as determined by their population. Winning Republican North Dakota (about 700k population) is only worth 3 such electoral votes, while winning Democrat California (39 million) is worth 55. The electoral college does skew towards giving smaller states more electoral voting power, though. If you calculate California vs North Dakota, for example, California has about 55 times the population but only about 18 times the electoral votes. It's much, much worse for the Senate, our most important legislative body, where each state only has two senatorial seats regardless of population, which means California's two senators represent an average of about 19.5 million people each, while North Dakota's is about 350k people each.

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Put fascists and sociopaths on your ignore list.

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Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

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1 hour ago, the_dog_days said:

336435_94y5dlny6kdvxkl.jpeg[

:shrugz:

It's not surprising, they use previous patterns etc for predictions which is why they predict some states almost instantly.

Say small rural booths report first, as they have less counting to do, and such booths usually vote R. Result therefore skews R early. The big urban booths from, dunno, Richmond or the Washington outskirts are bigger and report late, and they historically skew heavily D. If they're historically 75/25 in favour of D and are projected to stay that way Biden wins, easily.

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34 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

It's not surprising, they use previous patterns etc for predictions which is why they declare some states almost instantly.

Say small rural booths report first, as they have less counting to do, and such booths usually vote R. Result therefore skews R early. The big urban booths from, dunno, Richmond or the Washington outskirts are bigger and report late, and they historically skew heavily D. If they're historically 75/25 in favour of D and are projected to stay that way Biden wins, easily.

And yet they will count in PA for the next three days. :shrugz:

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Yep, which is why though Florida wasn't officially called early, it was very obvious when Miami (which has historically been Democrats' greatest stronghold in the state) went for Biden waaay less than it did for Clinton (and remember that Clinton lost 4 years ago, so).

@the_dog_days

Pennsylvania will take a while because it doesn't start counting mail-in ballots until...today? After today? Florida, meanwhile, counted all of them in advance.

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Never believe that anti-Semites are completely unaware of the absurdity of their replies. They know that their remarks are frivolous, open to challenge. But they are amusing themselves, for it is their adversary who is obliged to use words responsibly, since he believes in words. They even like to play with discourse for, by giving ridiculous reasons, they discredit the seriousness of their interlocutors. They delight in acting in bad faith, since they seek not to persuade by sound argument but to intimidate and disconcert. If you press them too closely, they will abruptly fall silent, loftily indicating by some phrase that the time for argument is past.

 

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US election infrastructure seems like it should be much better for a first world nation.

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Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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Right now I'd predict that Biden wins the popular vote but Trump wins the electoral vote.

"I am the expert, asshat." - Hurlsnot

"You need to be careful, lest I write another ten page essay on mythology and how it relates to Sailor Moon." - majestic

"I won't say what just in case KaineParker is reading" - Bartimaeus

"Oh no! Is there super secret ending as well? I don’t care." - Wormerine

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5 minutes ago, KaineParker said:

Right now I'd predict that Biden wins the popular vote but Trump wins the electoral vote.

Trump 'wins' on the night, Biden win after counting finishes for me. Which may be an interesting aftermath, to say the least.

After being repeatedly told that 2020 was not 2016 and the same mistakes wouldn't be made again... sheesh, the Democrat Party is not a learning animal. I think they'll get away with it- just- this time though. One thing is for sure, Donald Trump may have his limitations as a human being, leader, husband everything else; but he's got the most absolute talent for effective campaigning I've seen from anyone, win or lose.

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Just now, Zoraptor said:

Trump 'wins' on the night, Biden win after counting finishes for me.

While that may be true, I'm expecting a concession by tomorrow morning. Especially if Trump gets Ohio and North Carolina.

2 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

After being repeatedly told that 2020 was not 2016 and the same mistakes wouldn't be made again... sheesh, the Democrat Party is not a learning animal.

They didn't learn from 2016 or 2004 tbh.

"I am the expert, asshat." - Hurlsnot

"You need to be careful, lest I write another ten page essay on mythology and how it relates to Sailor Moon." - majestic

"I won't say what just in case KaineParker is reading" - Bartimaeus

"Oh no! Is there super secret ending as well? I don’t care." - Wormerine

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Y'know, I was pretty sure it wouldn't be some kind of "landslide" (in either direction, whatever) but regardless, more and more I feel like whatever the outcome of this election, I'm going to feel depressed. 

Maybe I'll feel more positive later.

2 minutes ago, Zoraptor said:

he's got the most absolute talent for effective campaigning I've seen from anyone, win or lose.

He's the one that fires, not the one who gets fired.  At least that's what he's trying to convince us of.  :)

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“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
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I don't think it is fair to just say the Democrats didn't learn from 2016. It looks like you are getting record numbers of voters. Trump deserves credit for getting more people out than he did in 2016.

Arizona swinging is interesting though. 

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Shame they re-elected that homunculus Graham

Why has elegance found so little following? Elegance has the disadvantage that hard work is needed to achieve it and a good education to appreciate it. - Edsger Wybe Dijkstra

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1 minute ago, Hurlshot said:

I don't think it is fair to just say the Democrats didn't learn from 2016. It looks like you are getting record numbers of voters. Trump deserves credit for getting more people out than he did in 2016.

Arizona swinging is interesting though. 

Increasing voter turnout has been their strategy for years though. It looks like Biden is going to lose Florida and Ohio, both of which are probably the most real swing states. He may pull it out with wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but if he doesn't pick up at least two of those he's probably done.

6 minutes ago, Malcador said:

Shame they re-elected that homunculus Graham

Lady G is a political vampire who will survive as long as there is a US government to be elected to.

"I am the expert, asshat." - Hurlsnot

"You need to be careful, lest I write another ten page essay on mythology and how it relates to Sailor Moon." - majestic

"I won't say what just in case KaineParker is reading" - Bartimaeus

"Oh no! Is there super secret ending as well? I don’t care." - Wormerine

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