Coronavirus : Country readiness

[Bartimaeus]

1 hour ago, KaineParker said:

Given how neurotic testing policy can be here (no tests unless specific systems, despite asymptomatic cases being common in many areas) I think the current number is at most a tenth of actual cases and we're not at the peak yet due to disastrous policies.

Correct. The death rates in Spain and Italy are absurdly high which suggests they're badly behind on testing as well, but given our own failures, it does not bode well for us.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

2 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

Correct. The death rates in Spain and Italy are absurdly high which suggests they're badly behind on testing as well, but given our own failures, it does not bode well for us.

Yeah, if the 3% mortality is accurate then several few months down the road a death toll of a million in the US wouldn't be inconceivable, and I'll wager that a lot of cases will be confirmed after autopsy. We've already had some tremendously stupid errors like not postponing primary voting (one site had some workers with confirmed cases of covid-19) and it's almost certain more ****ups are coming down the road.

[Bartimaeus]

1 minute ago, KaineParker said:

Yeah, if the 3% mortality is accurate then several few months down the road a death toll of a million in the US wouldn't be inconceivable, and I'll wager that a lot of cases will be confirmed after autopsy. We've already had some tremendously stupid errors like not postponing primary voting (one site had some workers with confirmed cases of covid-19) and it's almost certain more ****ups are coming down the road.

A little under half the population thinks it'll all be over by Easter, and a significant portion of that will probably be planning on gathering en masse in their local churches. Killing off your voter base through misinformation is a bold idea, Trump - we'll see how that works out for him.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

1 minute ago, Bartimaeus said:

A little under half the population thinks it'll all be over by Easter, and a significant portion of that will probably be planning on gathering en masse in their local churches. Killing off your voter base through misinformation is a bold idea, Trump - we'll see how that works out for him.

I'm willing to bet a lot of those same folks thought it was fake news to begin with. And lets be honest, Trump would sacrifice his entire base in order to make the stock market line go for a few minutes up and I doubt the presumptive democratic nominee would be different. We are ****ed.

[Bartimaeus]

I'm "excited" to see what the death rates for Florida will end up being - big population centers, high percentage of old people, everybody there seemingly not giving a crap, no testing, big tourist destination, certain to be a lack of critical supplies and health personnel, and a government that's saying everything is great and don't worry about it. Not because I want anybody to die, but more out of a morbid fascination for "what will this thing do in a situation where literally everything that can go wrong is going to go wrong".

Edited March 27, 2020 by Bartimaeus

[Zoraptor]

No deaths here so far, but we do have our first person in intensive care. The country is two days into a full lockdown- I'm 4 days in, due to having both my parents staying with me now and them being over 70. I do rather suspect there's a lot of mild/ asymptomatic covid19 cases around that aren't getting counted in the stats, but 350 cases and no deaths yet seems to be pretty good going overall. Me having what is, almost certainly, a bog standard seasonal cold at the moment is not great timing.

I'd also suspect that given the number of asymptomatic cases showing up in some of the mass testing that the mortality rate is, fortunately, a decent amount lower than 3%.

Edited March 27, 2020 by Zoraptor

[Azdeus]

We don't have any general testing here, the only ones that do get tests is healthcare workers and people that need hospital care, so at the moment we have 2800 cases and 66 dead.

[Hiro Protagonist]

On 3/10/2020 at 8:20 PM, Mannock said:

I don't get what the fuss is about. Sure, if you have multiple diseases and/or is very old (80+) you ought to be worried, but for everyone else, it's no big deal.

 

On 3/10/2020 at 10:47 PM, Mannock said:

Well, there are hundreds and thousands every year dying from the flu (again, people with multiple diseases and the elderly) and so far that hasn't lead us to buyng toilet paper in panic. I get it that it's important to keep diseases in check, that is all fine, but the panic is just utterly stupid. If you are in panic now, you should have been in panic all days and years prior to this date, and you should keep being in a state of panic for the rest of your life. But it won't do you any good.

 

I don't think these posts are going to age well.

[Katphood]

I guess Trump didn't lie when he said 'Mexico will pay for the wall'.

[LadyCrimson]

^  Regardless of the situation, panic and fear-mongering is never productive, especially on global scale.  People have to keep things in perspective. 

A 1-4% death rate could certainly be significant and tragic globally in the historically short term (infrastructure loads, economy, social/life impact and changes) but it's not the extinction of the human race. It's not the Black Plague or even small pox before vaccine eradication.

I think some people watch too many movies.

[Gorgon]

That's millions of people just in the US though. Kinda hard to underestimate the potential for that kind of impact.  It's a game changer everywhere you look. 

Fundamental change following social upheaval, as was seen in the black plague, is very possible, even if it is nowhere near as dangerous. Perception is what matters. 

[Gromnir]

1 hour ago, Hiro Protagonist said:

 

 

I don't think these posts are going to age well.

am gonna disagree. 

polarization and gaslighting, supported by media sources which is more interested in promoting a particular ideology than factual accuracy is gonna result in an unsupportable narrative nevertheless becoming gospel for a significant portion o' the population. 

if you ain't been paying attention to trends from the last decade, you will be shocked and horrified by the lengths folks is gonna go to in an attempt to reimagine and marginalize what should be inarguable tragic. as much as you need steel yourself for many weeks o' social distancing in an effort to keep the spread o' the pandemic from overwhelming limited healthcare resources, am thinking you also need prepare self for the aftermath which has frightening large numbers o' people in multiple nations convinced this were all much ado 'bout nothing... relative speaking.

we are lucky. this pandemic, as bad as it is gonna get 'tween now and release o' a vaccine more than a year hence, coulda' been much worse. this is not a civilization ending pandemic, but the next one might be. with increased globalism becoming the norm, the possibility o' worldwide pandemics growing outta control too fast for nations with current levels o' preparedness to respond is increasing. as such,we are getting a harsh but valuable warning from the universe. can either learn from it or suffer a far worse fate when a truly terrible pathogen spreads through every city and township o' the the world a decade (or sooner) from today. as insane as it may sound in this moment, we are lucky, lucky this ain't far worse.

polarization. gaslighting. lack o' education.

improbable as it may appear to those o' us who see images from italian and spanish and nyc hospitals being overwhelmed, there is a real possibility that we, as a people, don't genuine learn anything from today's experience. don't be surprised if such posts age better than you believe is reasonable.

HA! Good Fun!

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Gromnir

[LadyCrimson]

@ Gorgon - True enough, but we're still not even sure what the actual average infection fatality rate *is*.  What you're largely seeing now in scary headlines is case fatality rates, which is a different thing.

An article I read said that once S. Korea started to do some exhaustive testing, which indicated large numbers infected with hardly any symptoms etc, their figure was dropping to far below 1% (this was a week or two ago however). I think it's going to end up closer to that 1% overall however. Maybe.

http://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-looks-less-deadly-than-first-reported-but-its-definitely-not-just-a-flu-133526

...still significantly more deadly than the "regular" flu tho.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by LadyCrimson

[LadyCrimson]

27 minutes ago, Gromnir said:

this is not a civilization ending pandemic, but the next one might be.

My hope is the world takes the risk of a global pandemic (a much worse one than this I mean) more seriously. By that I mean the masses, not just scientists.  (EDIT : but I do think it's unlikely over the long run...)

I've never liked shaking hands willy nilly, or touching keypads everyone else has touched one after another in a store line, because I don't want to even get a cold. And I always gave people who had obvious bad flu's and came to work the stinkeye.  I don't like being sick, no matter how mild. Perhaps "the masses" can learn to practice more social distancing at all times, not just in a current panic, to help prevent spread of future "things" without losing the actual social events, if that makes sense.  As always it's difficult to figure out what's reasonable vs. trampling of individual rights, for some things (travel stuff, for example).  Sigh.  Never any true good solutions it feels like.

Edited March 27, 2020 by LadyCrimson

[Gromnir]

keep in mind there is also significant misapprehensions 'bout lethality o' covid-19 compared to previous pandemics. 1% mortality assumes 2020 first-world health care under ordinary circumstances. compare lethality o' spanish flu, smallpox and black death results in a serious underappreciation o' the lethality o' covid-19.  one reason why death rate in italy is so high is 'cause health care resources in that country is overwhelmed. a patient, forced to survive covid-19 w/o all the benefits o' 2020 medical care is not facing the spectre o' 1%. failure to adequate anticipate surge ADDS to functional lethality. 

furthermore, lethality and transmissibility is equal significant considerations. covid-19 actual spreads more readily than first assumed.  ebola, as terrible and lethal as it is, spread nowhere near as quick as covid-19.  fact we got so many asymptomatic covid-19 folks spreading through respiration is making the disease functional more deadly.

HA! Good Fun!

Edited March 27, 2020 by Gromnir

[BruceVC]

We have had our first 2 deaths in SA...as it has been demonstrated in almost all Democracies  there are people being dismissive of the principle of self-quarantine and what the lock down means but generally people are trying to adhere to the new virus regulations 

I never thought I would ever say this but China has one major advantage to most countries and Democracies, the citizens listen to the state and there are real consequences for ignoring the state. Anyway we cannot change certain fundamental realities of freedom of choice and what this means to all of us so we just have to see how things unfold and realize we are in this together as citizens and your actions can have outcomes 

Be safe 

[LadyCrimson]

Yes, good points re: available health care/resources as well as high transmission. I honestly think it's too late to do much containing in a real sense - where the lockdowns are going to be mostly helpful re: slowing the rate of cases to lessen the impact on health care resources (to not flood/hit all at once etc). Time may prove me wrong re: containment but eh, that's what I think at the moment.

====================

Unrelated:  According to sci-fi, we're the true disease, anyway. 

 

[Raithe]

[Raithe]

[Gfted1]

Coronavirus Poop Calculator. 

[Totally not Gorgon]

7 hours ago, LadyCrimson said:

@ Gorgon - True enough, but we're still not even sure what the actual average infection fatality rate *is*.  What you're largely seeing now in scary headlines is case fatality rates, which is a different thing.

An article I read said that once S. Korea started to do some exhaustive testing, which indicated large numbers infected with hardly any symptoms etc, their figure was dropping to far below 1% (this was a week or two ago however). I think it's going to end up closer to that 1% overall however. Maybe.

http://theconversation.com/the-coronavirus-looks-less-deadly-than-first-reported-but-its-definitely-not-just-a-flu-133526

...still significantly more deadly than the "regular" flu tho.

 

So 20 % of the US population is 65 million, give or take. Representing the people who get ill enough to need treatment. 

0,01 x 65 = 0,65 million

0,02 x 65 = 1,30 million

0,03 x 65 = 1,95 million

 

and so on. Now, that's the total, but worst case scenario is 40-50% infection rate at this juncture or peak in the curve. Those who dodge the bullet are unlikely to continue to do so, for the simple reason that the time we can all isolate is finite. The clock is ticking for a vaccine. 

 

It still looks pretty dire. 

 

[algroth]

9 hours ago, Gromnir said:

keep in mind there is also significant misapprehensions 'bout lethality o' covid-19 compared to previous pandemics. 1% mortality assumes 2020 first-world health care under ordinary circumstances. compare lethality o' spanish flu, smallpox and black death results in a serious underappreciation o' the lethality o' covid-19.  one reason why death rate in italy is so high is 'cause health care resources in that country is overwhelmed. a patient, forced to survive covid-19 w/o all the benefits o' 2020 medical care is not facing the spectre o' 1%. failure to adequate anticipate surge ADDS to functional lethality. 

furthermore, lethality and transmissibility is equal significant considerations. covid-19 actual spreads more readily than first assumed.  ebola, as terrible and lethal as it is, spread nowhere near as quick as covid-19.  fact we got so many asymptomatic covid-19 folks spreading through respiration is making the disease functional more deadly.

HA! Good Fun!

This is all true. Another couple of issues to remark here: Italy and Spain have been fighting the pandemic at a massive level longer than the US, around March 12 USA had roughly 1500 confirmed cases whilst Italy had 15000. Each active case is an ongoing battle for their health, and the longer one struggles, the likelier the chances of a negative outcome. Many cases in USA are likely newer than the ones in Italy leading to more early cases that could in a week's time result in a greater surge of deaths. USA's also slowly working its way to overwhelming the medical system which will lead both to a surge in coronavirus deaths for what is said above, but also many other casualties most likely as hospitals grow crowded, understaffed and run out of resources. Even if a pandemic has a 3% mortality rate, there will be many other deaths as a cause of the outbreak that aren't accounted for in this statistic.

The other issue I don't often see brought up is that the period of recovery for coronavirus can be much, much longer and arduous than the flu for example. I read somewhere, can't recall where now, that the time people struck with the flu with need of a ventilator would stay on it for an average of 2-5 days whereas people with coronavirus might need to be connected for 2-3 *weeks*. If you're suddenly brought in 100 patients to take care of in a single day, that's 100 patients you have to take care of for weeks; and when that influx occurs daily, well...

Edited March 27, 2020 by algroth

[algroth]

https://www.bz-berlin.de/leute/corona-drama-rammstein-saenger-till-lindemann-auf-der-intensivstation

Rammstein singer Till Lindemann in intensive care due to coronavirus.

[Bartimaeus]

Trump says he'll withhold critical supplies from blue states unless they start being nice to him. Yeah, contrary to what I said a few weeks ago, maybe I would prefer if he died of coronavirus, I'm not totally sure at this point anymore, really.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Bartimaeus

[Totally not Gorgon]

Get rid of the orangutan already. 

 

 

November.....

 

sigh. 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Totally not Gorgon