Politics First Contact

[Guard Dog]

[smjjames]

Lol! that tweet is like, self contradictory up to three times at least.

[Bartimaeus]

@213374U: Hey, I just made a handy little how-to guide for you and everyone else that you may find helpful: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/n8glwp45o75cwyv/2019-11-16_18-59-27.mp4

[Chilloutman]

thats some dodgy link if I ever seen one

[213374U]

46 minutes ago, Bartimaeus said:

@213374U: Hey, I just made a handy little how-to guide for you and everyone else that you may find helpful: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/n8glwp45o75cwyv/2019-11-16_18-59-27.mp4

Heh. Weird as it may be, seeing my posts from outside my profile made me realize how dumb it all looks. Time for a timeout. Thanks. 

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

On 11/13/2019 at 1:18 PM, Skarpen said:

You telling me that in US 20 guys cannot get 400K loan each?

Yes, I'm telling you finding 20 (25 if we're still rounding up to 10 mil) guys with the ability to get the equivalent of 2 home loans (for my area) and are financially secure enough to take out such a loan to become co-owners of a mine is incredibly unlikely.

On 11/13/2019 at 1:18 PM, Skarpen said:

Or 80 guys cannot get 100K loan each?

Same as above. Is this middle sized coal mine financed in Poland you've used as an example owned by a business with capital reserves by any chance?

On 11/13/2019 at 1:18 PM, Skarpen said:

That's not even a business loan it would be like regular cash loan you take for a car or something.

That's 10-40x the car loans I took out, and at least half of what I would need for an ok house in my area. If that's your idea of a regular cash loan then you have no understanding of working/middle class financial situations.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

2 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

@213374U: Hey, I just made a handy little how-to guide for you and everyone else that you may find helpful: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/n8glwp45o75cwyv/2019-11-16_18-59-27.mp4

Those are some faces I've (thankfully) not seen in a while.

1 hour ago, 213374U said:

Heh. Weird as it may be, seeing my posts from outside my profile made me realize how dumb it all looks. Time for a timeout. Thanks. 

And now I feel like a chump for continuing it. That's what I get for not following the forum for a few days I guess.

[Bartimaeus]

@KaineParker & @213374U: I know there's something to be said about fighting the good fight - really, I do...but there's a big difference between discussing with someone who is simply frequently on the opposite side of you vs. a hack fraud ideologue who consistently displays zero good faith any time you engage with them on any issue. Stop giving the latter the platform to spew their bull****...or at least any bigger of one than they're unfortunately currently afforded, .

[Guard Dog]

8 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

@KaineParker & @213374U: I know there's something to be said about fighting the good fight - really, I do...but there's a big difference between discussing with someone who is simply frequently on the opposite side of you vs. a hack fraud ideologue who consistently displays zero good faith any time you engage with them on any issue. Stop giving the latter the platform to spew their bull****...or at least any bigger of one than they're unfortunately currently afforded, .

KP & Numbers do you guys know the story of Br'er Rabbit and the Tar Baby?  KP you should growing up in the US. Numbers it would be worth your while to google it if you don't know it. Sharpie is (at times) a tar baby.

[ComradeYellow]

The United States has a history of genocide and white supremacy but we also have a history of doing the right thing when the situation calls for it (Civil War, WW2, etc).  Will it take another war to transform American (and perhaps, Western) society writ large?  Time will tell.  Whilst I'm cautiously optimistic about the future, the American right (roughly 25% of the country) are extremely radicalized so any kind of socio-economic reform won't come easy.

[Skarpen]

On 11/16/2019 at 4:09 PM, 213374U said:

Sigh.

You didn't say this either? Did someone hack your account and post this? Was it somebody else operating under your identity?

So it was a banking crisis that happened because of a socialist idea!!11oene

Yeah it is a socialistic in origin notion. Glad you can admit when you are wrong

Quote

Look, I know you make a point of pulling the trigger without knowing even the basics, but I really don't have time to ELI5 for you all the time. The German regulation I linked is a development of the Verordnung über Arbeitsstätten (Arbeitsstättenverordnung - ArbStättV). It's an ordinance. It's issued by the government. It's enforceable. Yes, ordinance is in this context interchangeable with law.

Similarly, the Royal Decree I linked to is the way our government dictates enforceable regulations when pertaining to certain matters as provided for by the Constitution (or as a development of parliamentary acts if specified therein), without parliamentary involvement. Yes, a Royal Decree is law. Law is "actual law". Clear now?

Which is the first thing I said about laws in Europe. Please check my previous responses.

Quote

You didn't provide ****. Your examples are things like moving rocks with a truck instead of by hand, which is profoundly stultifying even for the kind of content you have us accustomed to. Of course mechanization increases efficiency, duh. How does one increase work efficiency without the massive injection of capital needed to mechanize tasks? If what you mean by "work smart" is "get a small loan of ten million dollars and get machines to do everything", then you may be on to something, but I get the idea that you'll be shifting the goalposts soon enough again, because that doesn't jive so well with tugging at bootstraps.

No, keep looking more. You will find My other examples. Here let me help you:

Quote

So if you are an electrician putting more work with greater attention to detail and optimizing the electrical lines will get you more than electrician who don't, being a chef giving more time in picking the product, polishing your skills and giving more attention to details will give you more profit than a chef who just flips the pan etc.

 

Quote

And for the record, I've been working since I was 17. Much of it physical work too. Which is why I know, unlike you, that the demands of Amazon warehouse workers are perfectly reasonable.

So now we are getting somewhere. You never had an actual real job. Maybe when you will have one your stance will change.

Quote

Coltan forced labor mining operations in central Africa is the example you chose to debunk with your fictional story of a small loan of ten million dollars which could easily be obtained by asking the EU to then get a mining co-op going. That's another of your "work smart" solutions, I take it?

Now that I didn't know. I responded in general not to that specific situation. Maybe should made that clearer. 

Still doesn't excuse your claim about black people which I think you should apologize for as that is not something someone should say in civilized conversation.

 

16 hours ago, KaineParker said:

Yes, I'm telling you finding 20 (25 if we're still rounding up to 10 mil) guys with the ability to get the equivalent of 2 home loans (for my area) and are financially secure enough to take out such a loan to become co-owners of a mine is incredibly unlikely.

Same as above. Is this middle sized coal mine financed in Poland you've used as an example owned by a business with capital reserves by any chance?

That's 10-40x the car loans I took out, and at least half of what I would need for an ok house in my area. If that's your idea of a regular cash loan then you have no understanding of working/middle class financial situations.

That's not what stats say, but maybe you live in are where there is a decline. I live in are where there are lots and lots of private businesses and only a few middle to big corporations so our experience can differ.

https://www.finder.com/business-loan-statistics

https://www.smallbizgenius.net/by-the-numbers/small-business-statistics/

https://www.become.co/blog/small-business-lending-statistics-2019/

16 hours ago, Bartimaeus said:

but there's a big difference between discussing with someone who is simply frequently on the opposite side of you vs. a hack fraud ideologue who consistently displays zero good faith any time you engage with them on any issue

I'm having a hard time to remember any time someone displayed a good faith when discussing my points of view. And your claim is hurtful as I always display a good faith and carefully analyze my interlocutors points.

[ShadySands]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-50452177

I missed that Patrick jumped into the race but I did see BarryO's comments.

Man, remember when he was the radical leftist (according to the right, anyway) turning the USA into the USSR?

[ComradeYellow]

Funny how white lower class Obama '08 voters are now Alt Right types.  I never cared for Obama because I was subconsciously aware that the party he was running under was way too corrupt and damaged beyond repair to actually deliver anything significant, but what can I say?

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

4 hours ago, Skarpen said:

That's not what stats say

Your stats are for loan application approvals, not what percentage or segment(s) of the population is able to get a loan or afford the terms of a loan. The closest your linked stats get is a 12% approval for new business, which isn't particularly encouraging to a ragged crew of would be employee-owners. And if your example of the mine was accurate, the $8 million in capital for the initial investment is 12 times that of the "average business loan" of 663k in 2017, which given that the average small business loan from a large firm is 493k and over half of business loans are for less than 100k seems to be evidence that large firm loans are in another league. Which all goes back to business owner(s) of a mine having an ability to eat it that a small business loan applicant doesn't due to higher capital or state assistance, effectively making their risk significantly less relative to wealth than it would be for eighty guys who work in the mines (average salary for US miners is $63K) taking out $100k loans. Thus the huge risk is not so huge for someone like Freeport-McMoRan.

[Bartimaeus]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/470861-biden-says-he-wont-legalize-marijuana-because-it-may-be-a-gateway-drug

Biden's officially against legalizing marijuana due to it possibly being a "gateway drug". Well, I'm glad he said it out loud, because the Democratic voter base is pretty overwhelmingly in favor of it, so hopefully it hurts him.

(e): Also, Trump tying a gubernatorial election to himself and saying that the Republican candidate losing would be a personal loss to him backfires once again, with both Kentucky and Louisiana electing Democratic governors this month. Fun stuff.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Bartimaeus

[Skarpen]

3 hours ago, KaineParker said:

Your stats are for loan application approvals, not what percentage or segment(s) of the population is able to get a loan or afford the terms of a loan. The closest your linked stats get is a 12% approval for new business, which isn't particularly encouraging to a ragged crew of would be employee-owners. And if your example of the mine was accurate, the $8 million in capital for the initial investment is 12 times that of the "average business loan" of 663k in 2017, which given that the average small business loan from a large firm is 493k and over half of business loans are for less than 100k seems to be evidence that large firm loans are in another league. Which all goes back to business owner(s) of a mine having an ability to eat it that a small business loan applicant doesn't due to higher capital or state assistance, effectively making their risk significantly less relative to wealth than it would be for eighty guys who work in the mines (average salary for US miners is $63K) taking out $100k loans. Thus the huge risk is not so huge for someone like Freeport-McMoRan.

Well, the average of 600k goes against your claim that both 400k and 100k is beyond the reach of a loan takers. 

[Guard Dog]

On ‎11‎/‎16‎/‎2019 at 10:15 PM, KaineParker said:

Yes, I'm telling you finding 20 (25 if we're still rounding up to 10 mil) guys with the ability to get the equivalent of 2 home loans (for my area) and are financially secure enough to take out such a loan to become co-owners of a mine is incredibly unlikely.

Same as above. Is this middle sized coal mine financed in Poland you've used as an example owned by a business with capital reserves by any chance?

That's 10-40x the car loans I took out, and at least half of what I would need for an ok house in my area. If that's your idea of a regular cash loan then you have no understanding of working/middle class financial situations.

I'm not injecting myself into your conversation with Sharpie, rather pointing out something tangentially. Getting a business loan is difficult in that it makes the lending entity a partner in your business plan. It also gives them an interest in the financial positions of any partners you may have. If the seed capital for the business is entirely made up of the loan you had better be able to demonstrate to the lender a sustainable business model and the ability to personally float the costs through the start up process with contingencies for cost overruns. The business should also begin with sufficient assets for the lender to lien against or they will want to make your personal property part of your business property (something to be avoided). It is difficult to do because it is the financial equivalent to a full rectal exam. If your loan is to start a mine you need to come to them with geological studies to prove the ore you hope to find is there in sufficient quantities and you have already excavated some to show them. Start up seed money is usually not done through business loans because lenders are so reluctant to lend seed capital. Once the hole is dug and the gold is coming out THEN you can get financing much. MUCH easier.

Case in point my last business I started with six other partners. My share of the seed capital came to close to $300k. I mortgaged my house and sold off a lot of assets  and borrowed from my 401k to raise it. Two years in the business was profitable and we had to beat off financiers with a stick when we wanted to expand.

To bring this back to your example of the 20 guys and a mine. It would be very hard to get a loan to start the business but if they started it by personally financing the seed capital it would be easy to get business loans afterwards.  

[smjjames]

Geological studies though, are generally public, and yeah, the ground truthing (though I can imagine some trump-like going FAKE NEWS!!! THERE'S GOLD IN THEM THAR HILLS! MY GUT TELLS ME SO! no matter how much ground truthing is done) would suck up quite a bit of cash.

[Guard Dog]

Well, the point I was trying to make was KP was misrepresenting the difficulty of starting a business for the average person. He's holding out the most difficult path to doing it as an example of how out of reach it is. Asking a lender for even the majority of seed capital is such a long shot unless you have a proven track record, a business plan than can't fail, and/or enough personal assets to cover the whole loss if needed.  Generally speaking average folks who start businesses don't go that route. At least not right away

[Gfted1]

Life is rough when things aren't handed to you. True dat. That's why Im all about that Freedom Dividends life now. With that extra l00t, Ill be able to freedom to Mexico at least two weeks a month, which will really make me and my family's life much more relaxing and content. Seriously, vote Yang!

[ShadySands]

NVM

Edited November 18, 2019 by ShadySands

[Zoraptor]

2 hours ago, Guard Dog said:

Well, the point I was trying to make was KP was misrepresenting the difficulty of starting a business for the average person.

Starting a business is something literally anyone can do (well, so long as they aren't bankrupt etc), but for the specific example mentioned which requires a lot of startup cash that is practically impossible. The average person won't be able to raise 300k in capital as the average person is either renting or has a house that is already mortgaged- be pleased, being able to raise 300k makes you well above average. It is also highly unlikely that you'd find 34 people each able to raise 300k who are happy to get a 3.4% stake in a risky venture for mortgaging their house while having essentially no say in the venture due to the small stake.

(There are certainly some ventures that could get that level of commitment from enough people but they'd be 'new tech' ventures, not old- near oldest- tech ones like mining. New tech has Google/ Twitter/ Facebook/ (Apple/ MS) etc to point at where they've gone from garage level startup to multi billion dollar in a few years. Mining has not had that in modern times and has a recent trend towards mega company consolidation)

[Gfted1]

Do you guys realize that if I simply save all of my Freedom Dividends (36k x 8 years), then I would almost have enough money for my portion of the mine! The American dream is alive and well, if we just enable it.

[Hurlshort]

1 hour ago, Gfted1 said:

Do you guys realize that if I simply save all of my Freedom Dividends (36k x 8 years), then I would almost have enough money for my portion of the mine! The American dream is alive and well, if we just enable it.

I question whether your wife and adult child will go along with your plan to buy a mine. It might take 24 years if you only have your own freedom dividend.

[Sarex]

On 11/17/2019 at 2:01 AM, Bartimaeus said:

@213374U: Hey, I just made a handy little how-to guide for you and everyone else that you may find helpful: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/s/n8glwp45o75cwyv/2019-11-16_18-59-27.mp4

Damn, not Bruce, but why?