pmp10

Pretty sure that was deliberate. Sure - he got them all killed, but surrendering is much less of an option after that.

Turkey to demand insurance on oil tanker crossing the straits. With EU oil sanctions soon to take force that is a little surprising. Especially if any of the oil price-cap plans see the light of day. That one was partially recorded. One Russian protested the surrender by running out guns blazing with predictable consequences.

That and old soviet high-voltage substations need custom-made replacements. Supposedly it takes months to build them.

I wouldn't rush to conclusion on that one. Chance that a missile missed it target by hundreds of kilometers but somehow managed to hit people is miniscule. And if this was a deliberate message then Polish villagers are a poor medium to deliver it.

That's the EU part of 2023 funding for Ukraine. Unlike the US funding this one is prone to getting 'bureaucratically stuck', the 9 billions promised in May won't be fully delivered until next year.

I'm sure that major military victory is their 'hope-for' scenario but it's very unlikely to happen. In practice they continue fighting this war to deter Russia from doing this again.

Frozen conflict is the only realistic outcome of negotiations at this point. Putin won't give-up his annexations and Ukrainians aren't even ready to give-up on Crimea. Precisely. Same for the Russian side and the non-negotiable territorial integrity of recently annexed regions. Ukrainian position is simply easier (and safer) to soften.

More rumors that US would seek to freeze the conflict if Ukraine retakes Kherson. Strategically it makes some sense as it would secure Odessa and I bet they don't expect more Ukrainian gains. How they hope to stop Russia from launching another invasion is a complete mystery.

US is starting to push Ukraine towards negotiations. They should know there is only one 'diplomatic' outcome possible at this point.

Their latest estimations for Russian real GDP contraction are of 3,4% this year and 2,3% the next.

Grain transports leave Odessa in defiance of Russian withdrawal from the deal. We will see what their reaction is.

The plan to cap Russian oil price is being 'reworked'. The last form of economic leverage that west has over Russia is not looking so hot anymore.

According the IMF Ukraine needs 3-5 billion $ per month over 2023. This was already understood for some time and US (and even EC) has occasionally talked about moving from aid packages to regular subsidies. A good test if west has staying power in this war.

Interesting calculations on the basis of 'excess weddings' suggests that Russia conscripted close to half a million men. There were rumors that they weren't about to stop at the 300k mark.

Russian prank call to Ukrainian official has recently been leaked. Among a lot of minor details there is a very interesting statement that Ukraine is about to run out of S300 and BUK missiles. Apparently they have been strongly pushing US and NATO for the old HAWK systems.

Russians are starting civilian evacuation of Kherson. I wonder if troops are next?

They might be just cheap and numerous enough to wreck Ukrainian power infrastructure and exhaust anti-aircraft munitions. And chances are they are just the beginning as Iranian ballistic missiles are rumored to follow soon. Either way, they are a largely unexpected boost to Russian capabilities.

Suffice to say I think considering capability and responsibility EU has nothing to be proud of. Or at least so far. We will soon see if it can at all adapt to a longer war.

Not really once you realize that most of his entries are not refuges related and CARE / REACT are funds already spent elsewhere, which EU graciously allowed to be reallocated at the cost to initial intended recipients. Elerond only point is that EU helped fund the internal refugees in Ukraine, which I admit is not what I had in mind.

EU? No. It failed to find a single cent to account for millions of Ukrainian refugees. Individual countries? Sure, but that doesn't get the EU off the hook.

US is growing frustrated over EUs inaction. They are still not getting it that they will have to do this alone.

Yes it is. When US effort is underway to internationally isolate a country this is very clear side taking. Not unlike say, OPEC cutting oil production when oil price caps are suggested.

India is still abstaining. Seems the recent public talk-downs of Putin were for show.

Forgot to repost: Ukraine is being increasingly propped-up by US alone.

The 'state sponsor of terror' ones were a 'No' just a month ago.