pmp10

That was always going to happen given all that advanced weaponry provided. No-one was about to learn all the intricacies of western air-defense systems within few months. More interesting is if the rumored French combat contractors are really present there.

If these numbers are even remotely accurate we will see the front stabilize long-term. I would expect Russia to at least have some forces saved for the US election.

Remember GLSDMB ordered by US for Ukraine one year ago? Seems they are finally arriving. Now if that aid bill ever passes they might even be delivered in volume.

Individual counties most likely would, but the EU as a whole not so much. Ukraine would end up with plenty of weaponry and not enough cash to pay the bills.

It will be interesting to see if Syrski somehow tries to prove himself as a new commander. And if he does, will it be militarily or politically. I wonder what his stance is on that request to conscript 500k men.

They can't put it off forever either. Given current situation we might see a forever war stretch on for years.

This most likely means that Zelensky is under increasing pressure to plan the presidential election and is starting to getting rid of potential competition. He needs Zaluzhny out as soon as possible so that his popularity has time to fade.

Ukraine has started hitting Russian energy infrastructure with domestic made drones. The west won't like this but I guess it's about the last escalation option that Ukraine has.

China was told that Russia will wage the war for 5 years. That's from March so things might have changed since then.

Ukraine may mobilize another 500k men. No end in sight so far.

It gives them better access to EU funds so it's not all bad. The real problem is they don't seem to understand the 'timeline: never' approach and fully expect to be admitted in a few years.

Putin just ordered another army expansion. He didn't even bother to wait until Russian elections were done with. A bad sign for any near-term freezing of this war.

The impact is just not serious enough for anyone to care. Israel will get its way and all that remains is to make useless fell-good statements and monetize the angertainment.

One of these politicians is actually on the Israeli left. There is no telling what consensus emerges in Israel after the fighting is done. But rumors are already flying that southern Gaza is next and may end up as little more than 50km² 'safe zone'.

That's far from given. Israeli officials are testing the waters on unloading refugees to other countries. Their record on allowing Palestinians to move back is not that great.

Washington Post is openly saying Ukraine bombed Nord Stream. Supposedly Zelensky was not consulted, might be because his administration is thought to be soft and compromised by the Russians. Interestingly even US objections were ignored. Timing on this news is a little suspicions as well. Winter bombing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure is expected to start soon and they threaten retaliation on Russia’s oil and gas.

If Ukraine has shown anything is that without US NATO is completely toothless. Next time Trump or Trump-like is in power will be very tough on eastern Europe. And I wouldn't count on Poland to save the day unless soldiers found only on paper can materialize and do real fighting.

I'm sure Zaluzhny is aware of the sad state of modern journalism given that he is capitalizing on it. The economic interviews and the times piece were clearly synchronized political moves, likely aimed at Zelensky and his administration. The point is that failure of the offensive has finally become so obvious that it turned into a useful political cudgel. Instead of asking, why was the objective was missed by 90%, we are witnessing a part of a blame-game.

I'm not sure if the policies are 'bad' from the Israeli / US perspective. One man's apartheid is another man's successful colonial project.

There was also a second piece with him. In short, Ukraine needs a serious technological edge or the war is (at best) a stalemate.

It's just the preferred Israeli policy even if you are normally not allowed to say it out-loud. US will never allow it anyway, it would damage the idea of 'rules-based order' a little too much.

That one is noteworthy since it mentions some Ukrainian units outright refused to carry-out orders. It could explain a thing or two about the course of the offensive.

Nothing Ukraine would want perhaps. With failure of the offensive we now know there will be no forcing of negotiations by threatening Crimea.

US has already diverted to Israel thousands of 155mm shells initially meant for Ukraine. Any long war with western involvement will be competing for already scant resources.

And how do you get Russia to abide by any diplomatic arrangement? Oil price cap was about the final stick that west had available.