pmp10

Ukraine may mobilize another 500k men. No end in sight so far.

It gives them better access to EU funds so it's not all bad. The real problem is they don't seem to understand the 'timeline: never' approach and fully expect to be admitted in a few years.

Putin just ordered another army expansion. He didn't even bother to wait until Russian elections were done with. A bad sign for any near-term freezing of this war.

The impact is just not serious enough for anyone to care. Israel will get its way and all that remains is to make useless fell-good statements and monetize the angertainment.

One of these politicians is actually on the Israeli left. There is no telling what consensus emerges in Israel after the fighting is done. But rumors are already flying that southern Gaza is next and may end up as little more than 50km² 'safe zone'.

That's far from given. Israeli officials are testing the waters on unloading refugees to other countries. Their record on allowing Palestinians to move back is not that great.

Washington Post is openly saying Ukraine bombed Nord Stream. Supposedly Zelensky was not consulted, might be because his administration is thought to be soft and compromised by the Russians. Interestingly even US objections were ignored. Timing on this news is a little suspicions as well. Winter bombing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure is expected to start soon and they threaten retaliation on Russia’s oil and gas.

If Ukraine has shown anything is that without US NATO is completely toothless. Next time Trump or Trump-like is in power will be very tough on eastern Europe. And I wouldn't count on Poland to save the day unless soldiers found only on paper can materialize and do real fighting.

I'm sure Zaluzhny is aware of the sad state of modern journalism given that he is capitalizing on it. The economic interviews and the times piece were clearly synchronized political moves, likely aimed at Zelensky and his administration. The point is that failure of the offensive has finally become so obvious that it turned into a useful political cudgel. Instead of asking, why was the objective was missed by 90%, we are witnessing a part of a blame-game.

I'm not sure if the policies are 'bad' from the Israeli / US perspective. One man's apartheid is another man's successful colonial project.

There was also a second piece with him. In short, Ukraine needs a serious technological edge or the war is (at best) a stalemate.

It's just the preferred Israeli policy even if you are normally not allowed to say it out-loud. US will never allow it anyway, it would damage the idea of 'rules-based order' a little too much.

That one is noteworthy since it mentions some Ukrainian units outright refused to carry-out orders. It could explain a thing or two about the course of the offensive.

Nothing Ukraine would want perhaps. With failure of the offensive we now know there will be no forcing of negotiations by threatening Crimea.

US has already diverted to Israel thousands of 155mm shells initially meant for Ukraine. Any long war with western involvement will be competing for already scant resources.

And how do you get Russia to abide by any diplomatic arrangement? Oil price cap was about the final stick that west had available.

I think it's justified at least as far as US goes. Pushing for another breakthrough attempt in September was done solely to silence growing criticism with more heroic (if pointless) Ukrainian deaths.

That's because there is no military logic to the Ukrainian offensive anymore, it has been clear that strategic objectives are unattainable for quite some time now. We know US intelligence always thought it a long-shot and maybe trying to pull it off in June/July made sense, but by now political consideration have overruled any military ones.

He's not wrong that the offensive is no longer a military operation, but a political spectacle sacrificing Ukrainian lives in a play for sympathy. But I wonder what other suggestion does he have to keep the west engaged? Fundamentally political games during war are always played by spending human lives.

After one playthrough of PL it seems that CDP is slowly giving up on RPG mechanics. Level scaling, limited itemization and simpler skill tree. In exchange they added QTEs in boss fights and still force you into them no matter the build.

An interesting look behind the diplomatic scenes: A list of reforms US expects Ukraine to implement for continued assistance. If true, it's a pretty predictable list of changes regarding corruption, rule of law and business interests. The leak is likely a form of Ukrainian push-back, during the recent US visit Zelensky failed to get the reception or assistance he was hoping for.

That leverage works only after Ukraine itself is forced into talks. So far they have not been made to admit that offensive has failed and soon the bombing campaign will be a perfect excuse to refuse any overtures. That Russia was not willing to give diplomacy a shot in October is also a bad sign that they might be fine with a forever-war.

Russia has resumed strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This likely buries any chances for near-term diplomacy.

Latest RUSI report on the Ukrainian offensive. Mostly tactical details but can still be informative.

Or more likely they were rushing the story out the door with little verification. The initial witness impression were that this was a missile strike, plus wrong video was doing the rounds on social media. Not that I disagree on modern 'experts' tailoring findings to expectations.