pmp10

There was also a second piece with him. In short, Ukraine needs a serious technological edge or the war is (at best) a stalemate.

It's just the preferred Israeli policy even if you are normally not allowed to say it out-loud. US will never allow it anyway, it would damage the idea of 'rules-based order' a little too much.

That one is noteworthy since it mentions some Ukrainian units outright refused to carry-out orders. It could explain a thing or two about the course of the offensive.

Nothing Ukraine would want perhaps. With failure of the offensive we now know there will be no forcing of negotiations by threatening Crimea.

US has already diverted to Israel thousands of 155mm shells initially meant for Ukraine. Any long war with western involvement will be competing for already scant resources.

And how do you get Russia to abide by any diplomatic arrangement? Oil price cap was about the final stick that west had available.

I think it's justified at least as far as US goes. Pushing for another breakthrough attempt in September was done solely to silence growing criticism with more heroic (if pointless) Ukrainian deaths.

That's because there is no military logic to the Ukrainian offensive anymore, it has been clear that strategic objectives are unattainable for quite some time now. We know US intelligence always thought it a long-shot and maybe trying to pull it off in June/July made sense, but by now political consideration have overruled any military ones.

He's not wrong that the offensive is no longer a military operation, but a political spectacle sacrificing Ukrainian lives in a play for sympathy. But I wonder what other suggestion does he have to keep the west engaged? Fundamentally political games during war are always played by spending human lives.

After one playthrough of PL it seems that CDP is slowly giving up on RPG mechanics. Level scaling, limited itemization and simpler skill tree. In exchange they added QTEs in boss fights and still force you into them no matter the build.

An interesting look behind the diplomatic scenes: A list of reforms US expects Ukraine to implement for continued assistance. If true, it's a pretty predictable list of changes regarding corruption, rule of law and business interests. The leak is likely a form of Ukrainian push-back, during the recent US visit Zelensky failed to get the reception or assistance he was hoping for.

That leverage works only after Ukraine itself is forced into talks. So far they have not been made to admit that offensive has failed and soon the bombing campaign will be a perfect excuse to refuse any overtures. That Russia was not willing to give diplomacy a shot in October is also a bad sign that they might be fine with a forever-war.

Russia has resumed strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This likely buries any chances for near-term diplomacy.

Latest RUSI report on the Ukrainian offensive. Mostly tactical details but can still be informative.

Or more likely they were rushing the story out the door with little verification. The initial witness impression were that this was a missile strike, plus wrong video was doing the rounds on social media. Not that I disagree on modern 'experts' tailoring findings to expectations.

It's unlikely Putin would pull this trigger without feeling secure. I mean they didn't even bother with an accident.

Must have done too good of a job avoiding tea, windows and hotel laundry service. But as an insider he should have known better than count on forgiveness.

That would be a great deal for Ukraine if it was remotely credible. Russia will never agree to what would be an outright defeat and there is no way to strong-arm Hungary to accept enlargement. But the territorial concessions part is believable.

Biden is about to request more funds from congress to support Ukraine. This is the first time since election so should be a good indicator of support for Ukraine.

By now it safe to say that objectives were hopelessly unrealistic, but it's impossible to say if that is on military or political leadership. There is also the chance that both though that this is doable, unfortunate consequence of believing your own propaganda.

So the peace talks hosted by Saudis are over and predictably no much got done without Russian participation. But you can see Ukrainian position starts to shift: Ukraine is no longer insisting on Russian withdrawal as condition for talks.

Ukraine / US start discussion on security guarantees. Not long ago, Ukraine would laugh them off as no better than Budapest memorandum. If the war is to be frozen then Ukraine will survive or fall depending on these terms.

The Saudis are about to join the 'we have a peace plan' club. Interestingly, Russia and China are not expected to attend the talks, so it's essentially a glorified effort to lobby the global south. Pretty surprising twist after all the US spiting they have done recently.

Some details emerge about the unofficial US-Russia talks. If the account is true then Russia is unclear on their objectives at this point. Or they have no intention on unveiling them just yet. Also an interesting view that Putin is the key stumbling block to any negotiated agreement.

Stopping Russia at this point means (at the minimum) financing a stalemated forever-war for many years. Even UK has balked at the idea and they are among the more hawkish supporters of Ukraine. I'd expect that freezing the conflict is far more likely, even if it's certain to reignite later on Russian terms.