pmp10

Precisely all the more reason to consider what happens if it cannot save Ukraine. On one hand - Poland runs a rearmament program that clearly shows lack of trust in NATO. On the other - a growing lack of military capabilities that will take over a decade to fill.

It's better than nothing given the Ukrainian air losses but at these numbers it just buys them a few more months of limited air presence. Politically US already announced it means nothing in regard to ever providing F16s. On a side note it was pretty funny hearing US praised Poland for 'punching about its weight' on Ukraine. The country is practically staking its security on Ukrainian survival and will be in serious trouble if that fails.

The 'ratio' obsession at Bakhmut looks like a new 'body count' from Vietnam. You can arrive at any number you want to. One OSINT type, visiting the place with Kofman, calculated it at close to 1:1 for example.

They mostly meant level of fortifications, apparently they have been steadily build-up since 2014 precisely to inflict sever losses on would-be attacker. Mind you, these impressions were given last year, some time before Lysychansk happened. Ukrainian morale was running high back then and judgments were overly optimistic.

Not just that but there is a very real chance that Bakhmut is as good as it get's for Ukrainian defenses. Some first person accounts considered the city practically unassailable. Telling Ukraine to retreat without suggesting a better location to hold the line is of little help.

Ukraine is not expecting any jet deliveries soon. Practically closes the topic on delivery of any western fighter-jets and Ukrainian long-term sustainability. Also reinforces all the diplomatic rumors that Ukraine was given one year to make some progress but not more. I wonder what their plan is if Putin refuses to freeze the conflict in 2024.

An interesting summary of bombing strikes on Ukrainian grid so far - 255 infrastructure hits until today. As expected 80% of strikes were aimed at high-voltage transformer stations. Initially they were having strong effect too - the blackouts in Kiev quickly reached 50% level but it never got much worse. Seems the strikes provided diminishing returns which was opposite of what was expected.

US is seeking allies to potentially sanction China over aid to Russia. If it comes to that I don't see Germany (and so the EU) going along with it.

Ukrainian drones are striking deeper into Russia. Supposedly energy infrastructure is now also being targeted. Would you really expect otherwise even if it was true? Apparently similar reports surface in Germany.

Seems UK is joining France and Germany in pushing Ukraine into negotiations. For the future safety of Ukraine they offer armaments and 'guarantees'.

Chine calls for peace talks. They even offered a 12 point peace plan that reads more like 'just get along' wish-list. So far no one seems to be biting.

XI is supposedly getting ready to visit Moscow. Chances are a deal to support Russia is about to be made. I'm sure it will come at a reasonable cost to Russia. Lines are slowly being drawn, I wonder where wester Europe will stand. They are important symbols but that noting concrete was announced is telling. There are no more political plans for this war except to tough it out and hope you lose less than the other side.

UK won't provide Eurofighters for Ukraine until the war is over. But they do plan to provide 'Long range' weapons. I wonder what they have in mind since Harpoons were delivered already.

The timeframe of that production increase was quoted as two years. Like many of recent Ukraine announcements this will take a long time to make a difference.

More western worries about ammunition availability. It's another one of the 'we can't do it forever' messages from the west. You can sense a strong assumption that the fighting will peak in intensity this summer.

SpaceX is limiting Ukrainian use of starlink. Supposedly Ukraine found a way to utilize it in drones practically weaponizing it.

I think that's the first official confirmation about training of Ukrainian pilots. No one before seriously suggested that the plane of choice would be Eurofighter. Looks like all those rumored secret training programs were bunk.

Turns out the Leopard coalition is real after all. For Leopard 1s that is. Still 100 machines over the course of next year is at least something. An apt response to T-62s I suppose.

So Russia refused to sow discord in the west with fake news? I'll be a little more convinced once I hear official Biden peace plan. In other news - Leopard coalition is not coming along too well. The 'over 100 Leopard 2 tanks' might turn out to not even be 50.

A fascinating article about the visit of Burns in Kiev and Moscow. For anyone no fluent in German that can't be bother with translation software: Supposedly Putin was offered 20% of Ukraine (likely the part already held by Russians) as a peace offering but turned it down as not enough. Ukraine was also not interested, I bet they weren't offered any guarantees for the future. This fiasco resulted in a snap decision to send Abrams tanks which caught Scholtz unaware and finally cornered him in regards to Leopards.

Ukraine looks to join EU within a couple of years. No lessons learned from the NATO application process. But I guess you need to somehow keep the morale up in times of war.

US is trying to shift Ukrainian strategy. Surprising that they think western pledges will allow Ukrainian offensive by spring. They won't reach frontline until summer at best and some likely won't arrive for years.

Depends on how commited they are to spiting the face. The point was to force arms escalation, not get Poland into major trouble. Of course it would win PIS some votes, so the temptation is always there.

According to Ukrainian intelligence the spring/early summer period will be decisive for the war. Makes sense as almost all major factors can now be predicted, except for the effectiveness of newly conscripted Russian troops. Sure, but that's the corners cut in pursuit of quantity. A lot of 'make-do' decisions have likely been made when industry was set on semi-war footing. Doesn't necessarily mean they will be far less effective with somewhat less advanced optics.

Not new T90s or BMP3s certainly, but by now they have mobilized the industry and are refurbishing T62s and BMP2s. So the best guess is they are capable of these numbers and maybe more by raiding strategic stores and cannibalizing mothballed hardware. Chances are they can do this for a few years as well. Word is that US got really annoyed at making demand for Abrams delivery too public, so this might be making amends. Or maybe they just underestimated the pressure this would produce. Either way we will see if that 'Leopard coalition' Poland kept talking about is actually real.