pmp10

After XI's visit in Russia the EU is hoping for Chinese help in winding-down the war. It starts with mixed messages as VDL warns about consequences of Chinese 'decisions'. In a few days she and Macron will travel to Beijing, where I bet she will play the bad cop. Along with visits from Sanchez and Borrell this is quite the effort to sway (or in the very least probe) the Chinese stance. I wonder if the visit in Moscow scared them or gave them hope.

Another article suggesting we might be heading for a forever war. If true there will be no freezing of this conflict come fall/winter. Or at least not on conditions that would allow Ukrainian long-term survival.

Wrong phrasing on my part but I don't think giving out this information was terribly smart. The exact Russian capability to produce/refurbish equipment was subject to a lot of speculation on minimal basis so having numbers from the source is quite useful. Even if they come with the usual caveats of politician cherry-picking data they find convenient.

So Putin let slip an interesting little detail recently. He claimed to produce over 1600 tanks in 3 years. If this number is credible that would likely amount to over 500 tanks produced, refurbished and modernized per annum. For this year it would only be twice of what Ukraine is expected to receive, but in case of a forever-war only US has the capability to match.

They still admitted to some other forms of on-going air force training so I wouldn't discount it just yet. This isn't first time this rumor is floated either.

More reports that Ukrainian pilots are training on Mirage fighters in France. There might be some truth to it as it's still unclear why Ukraine is not as demanding of France as they have been of Germany.

With winter officially over it is a good moment to summaries the energy war. So in short term it clearly failed. The European gas storage levels are still over 60% and are unlikely to drop much by now. And that's partially because the winter was second warmest on record. Consequently the demand dropped and gas prices are back to 2021 levels. Of course it still has a nasty effects of driving up prices and inflation but it is no longer enough to shake-up the politics in Europe. I'd say that barring a record-cold winter it is now unlikely EU will change its policy over Russian energy.

The official position is that it has been clipped out of context. Supposedly he only spoke about 'west in general' and not Poland, also meant 'war with Russia in the eventual future' not this one. Besides the idea is absurd, Poland is way too soft to fight even if it had the means or independence to do so. The really curious part is if this clip was made by Russians or Ukrainians.

Precisely all the more reason to consider what happens if it cannot save Ukraine. On one hand - Poland runs a rearmament program that clearly shows lack of trust in NATO. On the other - a growing lack of military capabilities that will take over a decade to fill.

It's better than nothing given the Ukrainian air losses but at these numbers it just buys them a few more months of limited air presence. Politically US already announced it means nothing in regard to ever providing F16s. On a side note it was pretty funny hearing US praised Poland for 'punching about its weight' on Ukraine. The country is practically staking its security on Ukrainian survival and will be in serious trouble if that fails.

The 'ratio' obsession at Bakhmut looks like a new 'body count' from Vietnam. You can arrive at any number you want to. One OSINT type, visiting the place with Kofman, calculated it at close to 1:1 for example.

They mostly meant level of fortifications, apparently they have been steadily build-up since 2014 precisely to inflict sever losses on would-be attacker. Mind you, these impressions were given last year, some time before Lysychansk happened. Ukrainian morale was running high back then and judgments were overly optimistic.

Not just that but there is a very real chance that Bakhmut is as good as it get's for Ukrainian defenses. Some first person accounts considered the city practically unassailable. Telling Ukraine to retreat without suggesting a better location to hold the line is of little help.

Ukraine is not expecting any jet deliveries soon. Practically closes the topic on delivery of any western fighter-jets and Ukrainian long-term sustainability. Also reinforces all the diplomatic rumors that Ukraine was given one year to make some progress but not more. I wonder what their plan is if Putin refuses to freeze the conflict in 2024.

An interesting summary of bombing strikes on Ukrainian grid so far - 255 infrastructure hits until today. As expected 80% of strikes were aimed at high-voltage transformer stations. Initially they were having strong effect too - the blackouts in Kiev quickly reached 50% level but it never got much worse. Seems the strikes provided diminishing returns which was opposite of what was expected.

US is seeking allies to potentially sanction China over aid to Russia. If it comes to that I don't see Germany (and so the EU) going along with it.

Ukrainian drones are striking deeper into Russia. Supposedly energy infrastructure is now also being targeted. Would you really expect otherwise even if it was true? Apparently similar reports surface in Germany.

Seems UK is joining France and Germany in pushing Ukraine into negotiations. For the future safety of Ukraine they offer armaments and 'guarantees'.

Chine calls for peace talks. They even offered a 12 point peace plan that reads more like 'just get along' wish-list. So far no one seems to be biting.

XI is supposedly getting ready to visit Moscow. Chances are a deal to support Russia is about to be made. I'm sure it will come at a reasonable cost to Russia. Lines are slowly being drawn, I wonder where wester Europe will stand. They are important symbols but that noting concrete was announced is telling. There are no more political plans for this war except to tough it out and hope you lose less than the other side.

UK won't provide Eurofighters for Ukraine until the war is over. But they do plan to provide 'Long range' weapons. I wonder what they have in mind since Harpoons were delivered already.

The timeframe of that production increase was quoted as two years. Like many of recent Ukraine announcements this will take a long time to make a difference.

More western worries about ammunition availability. It's another one of the 'we can't do it forever' messages from the west. You can sense a strong assumption that the fighting will peak in intensity this summer.

SpaceX is limiting Ukrainian use of starlink. Supposedly Ukraine found a way to utilize it in drones practically weaponizing it.

I think that's the first official confirmation about training of Ukrainian pilots. No one before seriously suggested that the plane of choice would be Eurofighter. Looks like all those rumored secret training programs were bunk.