pmp10

More western worries about ammunition availability. It's another one of the 'we can't do it forever' messages from the west. You can sense a strong assumption that the fighting will peak in intensity this summer.

SpaceX is limiting Ukrainian use of starlink. Supposedly Ukraine found a way to utilize it in drones practically weaponizing it.

I think that's the first official confirmation about training of Ukrainian pilots. No one before seriously suggested that the plane of choice would be Eurofighter. Looks like all those rumored secret training programs were bunk.

Turns out the Leopard coalition is real after all. For Leopard 1s that is. Still 100 machines over the course of next year is at least something. An apt response to T-62s I suppose.

So Russia refused to sow discord in the west with fake news? I'll be a little more convinced once I hear official Biden peace plan. In other news - Leopard coalition is not coming along too well. The 'over 100 Leopard 2 tanks' might turn out to not even be 50.

A fascinating article about the visit of Burns in Kiev and Moscow. For anyone no fluent in German that can't be bother with translation software: Supposedly Putin was offered 20% of Ukraine (likely the part already held by Russians) as a peace offering but turned it down as not enough. Ukraine was also not interested, I bet they weren't offered any guarantees for the future. This fiasco resulted in a snap decision to send Abrams tanks which caught Scholtz unaware and finally cornered him in regards to Leopards.

Ukraine looks to join EU within a couple of years. No lessons learned from the NATO application process. But I guess you need to somehow keep the morale up in times of war.

US is trying to shift Ukrainian strategy. Surprising that they think western pledges will allow Ukrainian offensive by spring. They won't reach frontline until summer at best and some likely won't arrive for years.

Depends on how commited they are to spiting the face. The point was to force arms escalation, not get Poland into major trouble. Of course it would win PIS some votes, so the temptation is always there.

According to Ukrainian intelligence the spring/early summer period will be decisive for the war. Makes sense as almost all major factors can now be predicted, except for the effectiveness of newly conscripted Russian troops. Sure, but that's the corners cut in pursuit of quantity. A lot of 'make-do' decisions have likely been made when industry was set on semi-war footing. Doesn't necessarily mean they will be far less effective with somewhat less advanced optics.

Not new T90s or BMP3s certainly, but by now they have mobilized the industry and are refurbishing T62s and BMP2s. So the best guess is they are capable of these numbers and maybe more by raiding strategic stores and cannibalizing mothballed hardware. Chances are they can do this for a few years as well. Word is that US got really annoyed at making demand for Abrams delivery too public, so this might be making amends. Or maybe they just underestimated the pressure this would produce. Either way we will see if that 'Leopard coalition' Poland kept talking about is actually real.

So the summary of heavy weapon pledges at and shortly before Ramstein are about: ~170* soviet tanks 375 western and soviet IFVs 1000 western APCs 200 mostly western artillery pieces (half self-propelled) Not bad, but (artillery aside) this will cover roughly 3 months of serious fighting. Ironically this should also be about what Russia can produce in 3 months. * depending on what Poland has in mind and what the Czech delivery schedule is

You know you cannot just drop a line like that and not provide some explanation. My simples answer is that he wants the war over sooner rather than later to salvage what he can from dealings with Russia. A movement for escalation was gaining momentum and had to be nipped in the bud. I'm sure he will still agree at some point, but only when there is no more chances of moving the west from 'Too Little / Too Late' aid trajectory. Also there are rumors of cut-throat negotiations between Berlin and Washington concerning much more than just tank delivery. Chances are this aid is seen as one more form of leverage.

The tank matter is pretty much over: no Leopards for Ukraine anytime soon. Which also means no greater escalation in armaments on the western side. Got to hand it to Scholz, he played his hand marvelously at sabotaging that effort.

Talks about providing German tanks for Ukraine are at a deadlock. Germany won't move without US and neither country is about to do as it's told.

The only reason Ukraine might be 'winning' is because people don't look past short-term survival of the country. So far all efforts to change Russia's direction have failed and chances are they can eventually ruin Ukraine with sheer persistence. That is if they haven't already done so.

We don't yet know if he really was that badly wrong. Even Arestovych admitted thinking Ukraine was finished on day 3. And people like him ran the defense. Chances are the 'shock and awe' phase came a lot closer to regime change than people give it credit.

Tank talks continue: Germany won't move without US. I wonder if that means they wouldn't provide any Leopards themselves or won't allow any Leopards to be provided.

Turn's out Macron has jumped the gun on the announcement. The other countries had to follow afterwards or are now looking to push the opportunity even further. Might be no great design here, I mean the berlin wall fell due to a communication snafu.

And now serious talk about providing modern western MBT is starting. Poland and Finland are considering potentially providing Leo 2s. (assuming Germany agrees) UK has recently stated it could possibly join in as well.

It's the precedent that is interesting. Until recently delivering a western-made IFV was sure to start a nuclear war. Now you can do 'light-tanks' and be fine. Chances are that Putin turned-down one carrot too many and so here comes the stick.

Interestingly enough France is supposed to even provide 'light tanks'. I wonder what has changed recently.

Some interesting predictions by Michael Kofman. That was a long wait for quite a standard response with some opt-outs. Seems both sides are being really cautious about the energy markets.

Macron has been expanding on his idea for post-war order. His 'guarantees' are apparently to include the likes of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Armenia. I didn't think he wanted US gone so badly as to practically endorse a better CSTO.

EU agrees to potential gas price cap. It's still very much theoretical (it's set far above the current market value) but after months of negotiations some agreement has been reached.