
pmp10
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Predictably energy prices protests are starting in Europe with the Czech one being surprisingly big. I guess local politics also played a part. I doubt Czechs have any extra Russian sympathy not found in Hungary. By which you mean that there is nothing left to redeem? It's pretty clear for some time that this German government will stall and sabotage weapon transfers as far as it's practical to do so.
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An interesting thing happened recently: Zaporizhzhia NPP has been reconnected to Ukrainian power grid. Had to be done by the Russians even though they seemed adamant to shut the place down if it couldn't power Crimea. This along with constant delays to referendums and Azov trails might point to an active effort to freeze the conflict.
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Seems Ukrainians are slowing backing down from taking any offensive actions. Kherson is both an example that Russia can referendum-away any territory and a springboard for a future push on Odessa. They wouldn't give-up on it if there were any chances of success. A bad indication for future of Ukraine.
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Referendum in Zaporizhzhia officially announced. Russia doesn't control the whole region so that could well be a de facto claim on the remainder. Also September keeps getting mentioned as a date, likely to be coordinated with the one in Kherson. Time is running out for any potential Ukrainian military offensives.
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The report was so neutral it's being used as a card blanche to justifying hitting hospitals. Between this and the '30% of aid makes it to front' quote it's clearly a serious attempt to reverse narrative around Ukraine. Most likely too early for that just yet, but 'had it coming' is only a matter of time.
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Parts of the roof are still standing so we can safely discount anything heavier than an artillery shell. 100kg of TNT from HIMARS would sent the whole thing sky-high. If Russians are really innocent in this they shouldn't mind returning corpses in condition fit for autopsy. I'm not holding my breath.
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Feb-23 borders but everyone understands it's an unsustainable position. Sanctions already saw reinterpreting and exceptions, they will be hollowed-out if serious economic hurt happens in Europe. But they will not go to Vilnius to start with but Kaliningrad. Carving out that very reasonable extra-territorial highway that Lithuania refused to grant despite EU insistence. Perfectly justified too in their minds, goods transfer problems will only get worse in the coming years and will eventually amount to a 'provocation'. If they pick the timing well there will also be economic crisis, internal disorder, troubles in the Pacific, contested elections and persecuted Russian minority to save.