pmp10

And on the economic front: EU plans intervention in energy markets. Unsurprising given the massive price jumps recently. We will see how quickly EC can act when well-motivated.

An interesting thing happened recently: Zaporizhzhia NPP has been reconnected to Ukrainian power grid. Had to be done by the Russians even though they seemed adamant to shut the place down if it couldn't power Crimea. This along with constant delays to referendums and Azov trails might point to an active effort to freeze the conflict.

Both sides have made claims of 200+ kills in various strikes. It's becoming the propaganda number for 'a lot'.

There are maybe two months worth of decent weather left in the year. Even if divisions worth of hardware arrived today, there is no way they would be ready in time.

I'm surprised a message this important is communicated in a one paragraph lifted from an obscure interview. In practice this could mean a military stalemate for at least the rest of the year.

That's actually pretty interesting. I doubt that anyone would waste a long range missile on just a transformer. This gives credence to the rumors that attacks in Crimea were launched by saboteur units infiltrated there.

Seems Ukrainians are slowing backing down from taking any offensive actions. Kherson is both an example that Russia can referendum-away any territory and a springboard for a future push on Odessa. They wouldn't give-up on it if there were any chances of success. A bad indication for future of Ukraine.

Referendum in Zaporizhzhia officially announced. Russia doesn't control the whole region so that could well be a de facto claim on the remainder. Also September keeps getting mentioned as a date, likely to be coordinated with the one in Kherson. Time is running out for any potential Ukrainian military offensives.

The report was so neutral it's being used as a card blanche to justifying hitting hospitals. Between this and the '30% of aid makes it to front' quote it's clearly a serious attempt to reverse narrative around Ukraine. Most likely too early for that just yet, but 'had it coming' is only a matter of time.

Russia labels Azov a terrorist organization. Changes of them being exchanged or released are now next to nil. That's also a 3rd POW related stunt within a week. They can clearly feel the west's interest waning.

Parts of the roof are still standing so we can safely discount anything heavier than an artillery shell. 100kg of TNT from HIMARS would sent the whole thing sky-high. If Russians are really innocent in this they shouldn't mind returning corpses in condition fit for autopsy. I'm not holding my breath.

I don't know about 'all prisoners' but it's unlikely to be a work of any artillery. Just a single building hit and no near misses to be seen. Most likely a cover-up over deaths and mistreatment of POWs that were already registered with the red-cross.

That's a propaganda piece not a serious economic study. If the title didn't make it obvious just check the content. You can count 100 'Putins' and 80 'invasions' in those 118 pages. I'd say it's a reaction piece to IMF upgrading Russia's economic outlook.

First German Gepard anti-aircraft units arrive in Ukraine. Coincidentally gazprom is about to further cut gas-flow to Germany. It's almost as if it was never about that turbine.

At a minimum an official recognition that they get to blockade Ukraine. The legal status of it was likely less clear before-hand.

Nord Stream gas flow resumes at reduced rate. Seems Russia is not ready for the cut-off. Or at least not yet.

Rumors have it that Gazprom is getting ready for long-term shut-down of Nord Stream 1. Maintenance is (was?) to be completed this week. They certainly know how to keep markets in suspense.

Still beat by Russia at 136 out of 180. And yet you don't see video exposes of Shmels being sold from a back of a Lada.

And talking of reinterpreting sanctions: EU backs-down over Kaliningrad

Feb-23 borders but everyone understands it's an unsustainable position. Sanctions already saw reinterpreting and exceptions, they will be hollowed-out if serious economic hurt happens in Europe. But they will not go to Vilnius to start with but Kaliningrad. Carving out that very reasonable extra-territorial highway that Lithuania refused to grant despite EU insistence. Perfectly justified too in their minds, goods transfer problems will only get worse in the coming years and will eventually amount to a 'provocation'. If they pick the timing well there will also be economic crisis, internal disorder, troubles in the Pacific, contested elections and persecuted Russian minority to save.

There is a good write-up about this including projections. Russia may not be willing to completely cut gas deliveries for financial reasons, but I would expect sudden reductions in attempt to sow panic in the market and drive-up prices.

As usual with propaganda numbers it's taken out of context. Ukraine occasionally mentions 700k (most likely all military personel) which for some reason get's routinely rounded up to 1 milion. Assuming simple 4:1 support personel to combat soldiers ratio that makes roughly 150k troops. So presumably some 30% more than Russians, but chances are they are struggling much more with equipment.

It's a bit of everything without much in the way of details. It covers arms deliveries, transition to NATO artillery, coalition building, UK assistance, Ukrainian revolutions and negotiating with Russians. Certainly no details on any offensive plans.

Tomorrow Nord Stream 1 is getting shut down for scheduled maintenance Germany must be concerned as just recently it pressured Canada to ignore sanctions and return the Gasprom turbine Successfully too it seems.

Russian economy to do better than expected. If this is remotely accurate a next war is nigh inevitable.