pmp10

If memory serves the average European owns a car and will definitely be hit by rising fuel prices. And consider rising food prices in poorer eastern European countries. Your median Estonian household was already spending 20% of income getting fed and now is now seeing 20% price hikes in foodstuffs. It's little consolation that if we match them up with unaffected Irish the average looks fine.

Might be inevitable the way things are going. And maybe it's not right for us to use Ukraine just to buy time. You seem convinced that Putin wields absolute power and can get Russians to do anything. I think having sacrificed economy for greatness there will be serious upheaval if he fails to deliver. They would but as we recently learned they have just ran out of shells for their artillery. And that is despite sourcing plenty from stocks of eastern European countries. 3 months of fighting seems about what they could support by themselves. Debatable but you could arm them seriously enough to stalemate Russia. Of course this also means supporting Ukraine financially over a long war of attrition. The problem with that approach being in that support in EU is not there. I don't think US will want to do this with eastern Europe alone, especially after all the talk of rebuilding alliances.

Except that without western support Ukraine cannot carry-on fighting. With Ukraine and Russia being effectively out of options this makes the collective west the most responsible party for the future outcome of this war. I don't see why it can't be both. You just need to think of Ukrainians as expendable and their position as hopeless. There are suspicions that Ukraine will be kept on a lifeline just to inflict as much damage as possible before they are forced to surrender.

Candidate status at this time would be a strong message to keep on fighting. The question if this is a fight to the last Ukrainian just to punish Russia is still open.

European Commission will recommend Ukraine for EU candidate status I wonder if western Europe will want to risk it.

They well know that nothing in this range will be happening. It's like the HIMARS situation - they said 40 would be enough to slow-down the Russians and so will receive 4.

Practically all remaining customers admitted it in various press releases. You can find all of them with key weasel words of 'following EC recommendation and paying in Euros'. They know full well that they are crediting a new ruble account not foreseen in their contracts.

More rumors emerge of Ukraine being badly outgunned. If the morale problems are true that could explain the messy Ukrainian counter-attack at Sievierodonetsk.

So yesterday a grain export terminal in Mikolaiv and Kiev's railway yard were deliberately targeted by Russia. Seems the appeals from Scholz and Macron to spare the world hunger are just giving Putin ideas.

Putin plans to out-attrition the west. He might not be wrong about western commitment, eastern Europe is suffering almost as much inflation as Russia.

Biden wrote a short op-ed on Ukraine in NYT. Sounds like the strategy is just to salvage what is left of the country.

What makes you think you are not paying in rubles by now? EC refused to clarify their stance on whether this violates sanctions. Plenty of statements about 'following EU recommendations' were made but this might have become a synonym for paying in rubles.

Russian passports now on offer in occupied Ukrainian south-east. Of note is that Kherson region was included and even mentioned by name. A very strong 'here to stay' message from Putin.

So interestingly after (imo questionable) suggestions that Ukraine could win the war a number of voices have been raised urging them not to. Kissinger just joined that group after Macron, Draghi among others. They cannot possibly believe that Russia is willing to retreat from taken land, so what exactly are they playing at?

These given Russian losses are almost certainly general casualties, whereas Zelensky spoke of fatalities. If we assume the classic 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio in casualties, then Ukraine is suffering 1 to 1 KIAs while on the defensive. Not a good sign for any offensive actions.

Final azovstal defenders are to surrender soon. If Putin plans to pursue any off-ramps this would be the best occasion to declare victory.

Let's just say I don't think that 'out' is workable for him. There are limits to what can be spun to the Russian society. Complete withdrawal, admitting war guilt, financial reparations would all be clear signs of a major defeat that would end Putin's rule. That's about what Ukraine would settle for right now.

I'm not convinced that Russian economy is collapsing as advertised. For example ruble was supposed to have crashed hard by now. Instead new gas payment scheme will keep it strong for a long time to come. It doesn't help that all the predictions run very far into the future. The war may be over and sanctions lifted long before anyone has a chance to check their effectiveness.

Not at these stakes he doesn't. An 'out' of admitting defeat leads to him losing power and possibly the whole political system becoming unstable.

How? I don't think they have any stick to force Ukraine into conceding lost ground. I guess they could make some EU reconstruction package conditional, but that would meet political backlash.

Reportedly Italy and Germany will fulfill Putin's demand and pay for gas in rubles. The whole economic war on Russia is not showing great results so far.

There was even a claim by one analyst that Ukraine could have won the war if only it mobilized in December. But the reality is that despite military aid in the billions some of their soldiers are still serving near the front without rifles. I don't see how they could effectively arm mobilized force back then. As for provoking Russia - it's never that simple as mobilization carries a major responsibility for escalating conflicts in the eyes of international community. The narrative that Ukraine somehow forced Putin to invade is doing rounds even now. It would be so much better received if this could have been sold as a preemptive attack.

Presumably the dug-out. Might be the soldiers moved once it was already committed to a strike. Still not exactly a marvelous showing for something hyped to be a game-changer.

And on the technical side of new weaponry being introduced: First video of switchblade use has surfaced. Seems surprisingly... focused?

I'd say vast majority of their actions can be explained by following Russia's own logic, imperial policy or a result of evident screw-ups. Deliberate appeal to Italy's antisemitism seems to fit none of these.