pmp10

Or more likely politicians just don't want to know. If no one (save maybe Hungary) was really breaking-out they could find ways to confirm that. I suspect that when all this is over with, we will find out that many countries secretly caved.

And another economic escalation: Renault auto-industry shares in Russia nationalized. Technically force-sold for one ruble, but that is what it pretty much amounts to.

It is, but it's not tomorrow yet. I wonder how they will handle the problem that the pipeline also serves Germany. Maybe they just plan to reduce flow by polish demand.

So officially the flow of Russian gas to Poland ends tomorrow. Also officially, it's over non-payment in rubles rather than anything Poland did regarding Ukraine. In that case other countries should follow soon.

The only bridge directly liking Odessa to Romania has just been bombed. This comes just after two radio towers in Transnistria were blown-up. We might be seeing a second (or is it third now?) front develop.

There are greater expectations on Germany to provide EU leadership. Especially so since they purposely landed themselves and no small part of Europe in this degree of gas dependence in the first place.

I'm sure they will help but are not about to provide upwards of 500 billion $ needed for complete reconstruction. The security arrangements are more important anyway and these will depend on the shape of front-lines as fighting ends. Say Kherson's people republic is established and claims more of Ukrainian held territory - will the west really commit to a military intervention in case of a future invasion? I have my doubts.

They can't establish near-term political control over Kiev but they can certainly settle for less. If Ukraine losses major parts of territory and cannot recover from economic damage then next invasion is just a matter of time. All will depend on whether the west is willing to build the country back-up and protect it or just uses it as a disposable instrument to punish Russia.

Russian army announced their objectives for phase two of 'operation'. Beside the predictable land-bridge to Crimea and control of Donbas are the more ambitious: taking of 'southern' Ukraine and securing connection to Transdniestria. Odessa might not be safe even after Moscow went down.

Sure, but the city didn't have to be stormed either. Troops attacking Mariupol could have been used at Mykolaiv where a city cannot be easily bypassed. So since it looks like a political objective it is a bit odd to delay complete capture. And another interesting development: It seems that another arms package was just approved by Biden. 72 howitzers is actually quite the step-up. If supplies continue being streamed like this Ukraine might retake some small bits of lost ground.

Azovstal to be blockaded instead of stormed Makes sense given the supposed number of civilians in there, but I doubt that means end of bombardment. A hostage situation might develop over this. Ukraine has already offered prisoners in exchange.

So, about that. And here I thought Scholz was being obtuse today.

The thing was caught by commercial satellite (or at least an eerily similar parade was) and analyzed. But with ship obviously gone I'm not sure it matters that much. And in more important news: Zelensky just announced that Russian Donbass offensive is now ongoing. Most likely the second most important battle of this war.

The after parade at Sevastopol was counted to be 240 crewman strong. There was also rumor from one of the survivors of another 200 being hospitalized. Numbers might be exaggerated but I seriously doubt most of the crew would be lost without the ship going immediately down.

New US aid package signed, will include howitzers. Slowly evolving the range of allowed weaponry.

Pretty sure the refugees of Syria wanted the same. It's too early to say that this will turn out to be a 3-month affair with relative peace afterwards.

It's not only about our housing (but that is an factor - if you thought it unaffordable just wait a year) but services. For example waiting times for surgery in Poland can now be measured in years. Everything in our societies that was mediocrely handled (and conveniently swept under the rug by COIVD) from education, thru health-care to energy transition will now come under serious stress. Central Poland.

It's not like there was much choice due to sheer scale of movement. Migrants and refugees make for a great topic for politicians as long as they don't come in the millions. Everyone knows eastern Europe can't offer them great conditions to live either. We will see exactly how much the west cares when the subject of money to support them comes about.

Many EU countries are working against escalation but you have to admit that Germany uniquely has sent some mixed messages. I think there is a running gag with German arms industry offering weaponry only for Scholtz to shoot them down. Might be a culture shock after Merkel who was very consistent in communication.

1k Ukrainian Marines are said to have surrendered at Mariupol Rumors have it that other units tried to break thru and join with Azov to mixed results.

The separatists were publicly toying with the idea at Mariupol steel plant, but (assuming it's even true) at only 3 injured this couldn't have been a serious strike.

Ukraine's economy to halve Lost roughly 20 years of development.

And they mentioned reusing Control tech for these.

Another thing missed yesterday: No tanks for Ukraine. That likely leaves total NATO contribution at the 5 Czech ones. I doubt any aircraft or serious artillery will be provided for the same reasons. Most likely ends Ukrainian hopes for retaking of the south.

Russia is rumored to be mobilizing reservists. Also reworking the command structure. Pretty much buries all peace hopes at least until next Russian offensive plays-out.