
pmp10
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Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
So interestingly after (imo questionable) suggestions that Ukraine could win the war a number of voices have been raised urging them not to. Kissinger just joined that group after Macron, Draghi among others. They cannot possibly believe that Russia is willing to retreat from taken land, so what exactly are they playing at? -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
These given Russian losses are almost certainly general casualties, whereas Zelensky spoke of fatalities. If we assume the classic 3 wounded to 1 killed ratio in casualties, then Ukraine is suffering 1 to 1 KIAs while on the defensive. Not a good sign for any offensive actions. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Final azovstal defenders are to surrender soon. If Putin plans to pursue any off-ramps this would be the best occasion to declare victory. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Let's just say I don't think that 'out' is workable for him. There are limits to what can be spun to the Russian society. Complete withdrawal, admitting war guilt, financial reparations would all be clear signs of a major defeat that would end Putin's rule. That's about what Ukraine would settle for right now. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
I'm not convinced that Russian economy is collapsing as advertised. For example ruble was supposed to have crashed hard by now. Instead new gas payment scheme will keep it strong for a long time to come. It doesn't help that all the predictions run very far into the future. The war may be over and sanctions lifted long before anyone has a chance to check their effectiveness. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Not at these stakes he doesn't. An 'out' of admitting defeat leads to him losing power and possibly the whole political system becoming unstable. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
How? I don't think they have any stick to force Ukraine into conceding lost ground. I guess they could make some EU reconstruction package conditional, but that would meet political backlash. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Reportedly Italy and Germany will fulfill Putin's demand and pay for gas in rubles. The whole economic war on Russia is not showing great results so far. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
There was even a claim by one analyst that Ukraine could have won the war if only it mobilized in December. But the reality is that despite military aid in the billions some of their soldiers are still serving near the front without rifles. I don't see how they could effectively arm mobilized force back then. As for provoking Russia - it's never that simple as mobilization carries a major responsibility for escalating conflicts in the eyes of international community. The narrative that Ukraine somehow forced Putin to invade is doing rounds even now. It would be so much better received if this could have been sold as a preemptive attack. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
Presumably the dug-out. Might be the soldiers moved once it was already committed to a strike. Still not exactly a marvelous showing for something hyped to be a game-changer. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
And on the technical side of new weaponry being introduced: First video of switchblade use has surfaced. Seems surprisingly... focused? -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
I'd say vast majority of their actions can be explained by following Russia's own logic, imperial policy or a result of evident screw-ups. Deliberate appeal to Italy's antisemitism seems to fit none of these. -
Ukraine Conflict - "Only the dead have seen the end of war."
pmp10 replied to Mamoulian War's topic in Way Off-Topic
But only in a private conversation. The Israel thing is so weird, it was clearly not an accident or meant for a domestic audience as Lavrov interview was for Italian TV station and they doubled-down afterwards. I see absolutely no purpose or advantage to it. -
That's great but Russian offensive there was stopped over a month ago. I really don't think much value is put in Kharkiv at this point, except maybe as a opportunity for cheap terror strikes*. Whereas Russians were just recently making gains around Kherson, politically far more important target. * - Still ongoing strikes, Ukrainian gains have not been enough to push Russian artillery far enough from even the city center.