pmp10

If that was it they wouldn't need to stop that transfer of Spanish Leo 2s to Ukraine.

Ukraine is focusing on getting western tanks. Strange priority given the circumstances. They must be desperate to break that political limitation on armaments. If Russian mobilization can't get them at least Leopard 1s they are in serious trouble.

EU finally pays their due in grain export deal. New sanction interpretation will allow the transport of coal and fertilizers through EU. More loopholes and exemptions.

Decisive. Experts should have seen by April that sanctions (at least as implemented) were never going to work. Putin is not the only one to double-down on failure.

And how much ass-kicking would Ukraine do without assistance? Military position of Ukraine is direct result of what the west will and will not do.

I'll spare everyone another rant on making Russia a 'pariah state' or crushing its economy with 'unprecedented sanctions'. Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization. The sudden interest in security council makes me think that not a single thing has been learned.

At UN Biden response to Russian mobilization is making security council more 'inclusive'. The west just can't accept that their soft power has failed.

A little surprising Putin announced it himself. I thought that Shoigu was there for that.

Realistically Russia would need only a small portion of their reserves, so that passivity need not change. Especially if they target the 'right' conscripts. Well, Putin is 2 hours late for supposed speech so either there are last minute negotiations or he is just recompensing all the waiting he had to do in Teheran.

And remaining separatists are also planning referenda on the same dates. Rumors are also flying that Putin will take an official position on the subject tonight. Looking more and more like the point of no return.

LPR is officially declaring a referendum to join Russia. If TASS is to be believed the voting starts in 3 days and will take 5 to complete... They also called on other regions to do the same.

Germany is taking (temporary) control of Rosneft refineries. Since the natural response would be an oil cut-off that sanction will come early. Sure but the soviet equipment Ukraine was given won't last thru a longer war of attrition. And there is a good chance that EU is already out of giftable T-72s.

US is unlikely to supply long range missiles in the near future. That would likely mean that western tanks, planes and IFVs are also off the table. I guess Ukrainian victory didn't change that particular escalation logic.

According to Goldman Sachs EU gas prices have already peaked. Pretty surprising as the EU discussions on market intervention are not going terribly well.

Not coincidentally the last working nuclear reactor was shut down today at Zaporizhzhia NPP. I bet Russia planned to hit the energy grid during the winter anyway, but after offensive they needed a quick morale boost.

We will have to agree to disagree on that one. Two salients created when their breakthrough attempts were contained are well visible on the map even today. Maybe they can eventually grind-out a win of sorts but this was clearly not the plan. Especially given the costs.

Rumors are flying that another offensive might be in the making: Seems terribly ambitious given the failure in Kherson. But then again at one point Zelenskyy mentioned a plan to end the war by Christmas and I doubt he had surrender in mind.

What makes you think that the war will be over? Ukraine cannot accept loss of territory and Russia has no reason to stop fighting. Wouldn't be the first half-frozen forever-war in the world. And no one will seriously invest in rebuilding when cruise missiles can strike their construction site at any moment.

Ah I see the problem. *insert obligatory world-doesn't-revolve-around-US joke Us poor continentals trade our gas in the Netherlands:

I assume they mean the end-user price? The current market price has over 250% YoY increase.

It will also be on the lips of protesters angling for benefits or trying to overthrow their governments. The real affected poor are very unlikely to be noticed.

Whoever the open society foundation polled. Although I admit they are not very open about methodology.

Let's first see if people of EU are at all willing to sacrifice. Some 32% of western Europeans are now afraid their families will go hungry. Quite the self-pitying nonsense for a region with 20% obesity rate.

He means at the border. Ukraine can't force anyone to come back once they left the country. Funnily enough at one point they considered criminalizing not-returning when subject to conscription. But I don't think that law was ever passed.