
pmp10
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I'll spare everyone another rant on making Russia a 'pariah state' or crushing its economy with 'unprecedented sanctions'. Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization. The sudden interest in security council makes me think that not a single thing has been learned.
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Realistically Russia would need only a small portion of their reserves, so that passivity need not change. Especially if they target the 'right' conscripts. Well, Putin is 2 hours late for supposed speech so either there are last minute negotiations or he is just recompensing all the waiting he had to do in Teheran.
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Germany is taking (temporary) control of Rosneft refineries. Since the natural response would be an oil cut-off that sanction will come early. Sure but the soviet equipment Ukraine was given won't last thru a longer war of attrition. And there is a good chance that EU is already out of giftable T-72s.
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What makes you think that the war will be over? Ukraine cannot accept loss of territory and Russia has no reason to stop fighting. Wouldn't be the first half-frozen forever-war in the world. And no one will seriously invest in rebuilding when cruise missiles can strike their construction site at any moment.
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Predictably energy prices protests are starting in Europe with the Czech one being surprisingly big. I guess local politics also played a part. I doubt Czechs have any extra Russian sympathy not found in Hungary. By which you mean that there is nothing left to redeem? It's pretty clear for some time that this German government will stall and sabotage weapon transfers as far as it's practical to do so.