pmp10

They could have multiple reasons: warn the west about things to come if they don't force Ukraine to the negotiating table pretend to be the first victim of the upcoming pipeline ripper (definitely not the perpetrator, no sir) divide NATO with accusations and conspiracy theories (was it US? was it Poland?) panic the EU markets to rally the slowly dropping gas prices punish Germany for taking over Russian energy assets And it's not like the pipelines were looking to be of much use in the short term anyway. Doesn't mean they did it of course, but the benefits are there.

We will almost certainly find out in time. If it's Russia it won't be an isolated case, incidentally Baltic pipe is set to open soon. If it isn't Russia the news will leak sooner or later.

Over the last 24 hours both Nord Stream pipelines have sprung mysterious leaks. Plenty of vulnerable gas pipelines in the area, especially the ones from Norway. Energy war escalates.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I doubt anything will happen over Kherson or Zaporizhzhia that Russians have never taken. Threaten Sevastopol however and we might just see tactical nukes deployed.

Interesting reactions to Putin's nuclear saber rattling: Zelenskyy thinks that Putin isn't bluffing. US warns Russia over nuclear weapons use via private channels. So what options do they have except let him win?

A good RUSI commentary on western response to mobilization. That response will be a even better indication of the future than the handling of upcoming energy squeeze.

If that was it they wouldn't need to stop that transfer of Spanish Leo 2s to Ukraine.

Ukraine is focusing on getting western tanks. Strange priority given the circumstances. They must be desperate to break that political limitation on armaments. If Russian mobilization can't get them at least Leopard 1s they are in serious trouble.

EU finally pays their due in grain export deal. New sanction interpretation will allow the transport of coal and fertilizers through EU. More loopholes and exemptions.

Decisive. Experts should have seen by April that sanctions (at least as implemented) were never going to work. Putin is not the only one to double-down on failure.

And how much ass-kicking would Ukraine do without assistance? Military position of Ukraine is direct result of what the west will and will not do.

I'll spare everyone another rant on making Russia a 'pariah state' or crushing its economy with 'unprecedented sanctions'. Suffice to say that all that careful escalation management resulted in Russian mobilization. The sudden interest in security council makes me think that not a single thing has been learned.

At UN Biden response to Russian mobilization is making security council more 'inclusive'. The west just can't accept that their soft power has failed.

A little surprising Putin announced it himself. I thought that Shoigu was there for that.

Realistically Russia would need only a small portion of their reserves, so that passivity need not change. Especially if they target the 'right' conscripts. Well, Putin is 2 hours late for supposed speech so either there are last minute negotiations or he is just recompensing all the waiting he had to do in Teheran.

And remaining separatists are also planning referenda on the same dates. Rumors are also flying that Putin will take an official position on the subject tonight. Looking more and more like the point of no return.

LPR is officially declaring a referendum to join Russia. If TASS is to be believed the voting starts in 3 days and will take 5 to complete... They also called on other regions to do the same.

Germany is taking (temporary) control of Rosneft refineries. Since the natural response would be an oil cut-off that sanction will come early. Sure but the soviet equipment Ukraine was given won't last thru a longer war of attrition. And there is a good chance that EU is already out of giftable T-72s.

US is unlikely to supply long range missiles in the near future. That would likely mean that western tanks, planes and IFVs are also off the table. I guess Ukrainian victory didn't change that particular escalation logic.

According to Goldman Sachs EU gas prices have already peaked. Pretty surprising as the EU discussions on market intervention are not going terribly well.

Not coincidentally the last working nuclear reactor was shut down today at Zaporizhzhia NPP. I bet Russia planned to hit the energy grid during the winter anyway, but after offensive they needed a quick morale boost.

We will have to agree to disagree on that one. Two salients created when their breakthrough attempts were contained are well visible on the map even today. Maybe they can eventually grind-out a win of sorts but this was clearly not the plan. Especially given the costs.

Rumors are flying that another offensive might be in the making: Seems terribly ambitious given the failure in Kherson. But then again at one point Zelenskyy mentioned a plan to end the war by Christmas and I doubt he had surrender in mind.

What makes you think that the war will be over? Ukraine cannot accept loss of territory and Russia has no reason to stop fighting. Wouldn't be the first half-frozen forever-war in the world. And no one will seriously invest in rebuilding when cruise missiles can strike their construction site at any moment.