pmp10

Referendum in Zaporizhzhia officially announced. Russia doesn't control the whole region so that could well be a de facto claim on the remainder. Also September keeps getting mentioned as a date, likely to be coordinated with the one in Kherson. Time is running out for any potential Ukrainian military offensives.

The report was so neutral it's being used as a card blanche to justifying hitting hospitals. Between this and the '30% of aid makes it to front' quote it's clearly a serious attempt to reverse narrative around Ukraine. Most likely too early for that just yet, but 'had it coming' is only a matter of time.

Russia labels Azov a terrorist organization. Changes of them being exchanged or released are now next to nil. That's also a 3rd POW related stunt within a week. They can clearly feel the west's interest waning.

Parts of the roof are still standing so we can safely discount anything heavier than an artillery shell. 100kg of TNT from HIMARS would sent the whole thing sky-high. If Russians are really innocent in this they shouldn't mind returning corpses in condition fit for autopsy. I'm not holding my breath.

I don't know about 'all prisoners' but it's unlikely to be a work of any artillery. Just a single building hit and no near misses to be seen. Most likely a cover-up over deaths and mistreatment of POWs that were already registered with the red-cross.

That's a propaganda piece not a serious economic study. If the title didn't make it obvious just check the content. You can count 100 'Putins' and 80 'invasions' in those 118 pages. I'd say it's a reaction piece to IMF upgrading Russia's economic outlook.

First German Gepard anti-aircraft units arrive in Ukraine. Coincidentally gazprom is about to further cut gas-flow to Germany. It's almost as if it was never about that turbine. 🤔

At a minimum an official recognition that they get to blockade Ukraine. The legal status of it was likely less clear before-hand.

Nord Stream gas flow resumes at reduced rate. Seems Russia is not ready for the cut-off. Or at least not yet.

Rumors have it that Gazprom is getting ready for long-term shut-down of Nord Stream 1. Maintenance is (was?) to be completed this week. They certainly know how to keep markets in suspense.

Still beat by Russia at 136 out of 180. And yet you don't see video exposes of Shmels being sold from a back of a Lada.

And talking of reinterpreting sanctions: EU backs-down over Kaliningrad

Feb-23 borders but everyone understands it's an unsustainable position. Sanctions already saw reinterpreting and exceptions, they will be hollowed-out if serious economic hurt happens in Europe. But they will not go to Vilnius to start with but Kaliningrad. Carving out that very reasonable extra-territorial highway that Lithuania refused to grant despite EU insistence. Perfectly justified too in their minds, goods transfer problems will only get worse in the coming years and will eventually amount to a 'provocation'. If they pick the timing well there will also be economic crisis, internal disorder, troubles in the Pacific, contested elections and persecuted Russian minority to save.

There is a good write-up about this including projections. Russia may not be willing to completely cut gas deliveries for financial reasons, but I would expect sudden reductions in attempt to sow panic in the market and drive-up prices.

As usual with propaganda numbers it's taken out of context. Ukraine occasionally mentions 700k (most likely all military personel) which for some reason get's routinely rounded up to 1 milion. Assuming simple 4:1 support personel to combat soldiers ratio that makes roughly 150k troops. So presumably some 30% more than Russians, but chances are they are struggling much more with equipment.

It's a bit of everything without much in the way of details. It covers arms deliveries, transition to NATO artillery, coalition building, UK assistance, Ukrainian revolutions and negotiating with Russians. Certainly no details on any offensive plans.

Tomorrow Nord Stream 1 is getting shut down for scheduled maintenance Germany must be concerned as just recently it pressured Canada to ignore sanctions and return the Gasprom turbine Successfully too it seems.

Russian economy to do better than expected. If this is remotely accurate a next war is nigh inevitable.

A short report was published by RUSI on what Ukraine would need to stay in the fight. TLDR: More advanced weaponry, munitions and even training. And maybe the most important bit:

Interesting bit of info from NATO summit - Ukraine was supposedly provided with 600 tanks. Deliveries we know of don't even come up to 300 so I wonder if everyone missed a massive donation. Or maybe they are just confusing IFVs and tanks again.

It's pointless to look for financial profit in imperial logic. All the captured territory, industry, resources and population don't mean much compared to the importance of Russian self-perception.

Ukrainians reject peace at the cost of territory 80% won't even concede Crimea even at this point.

A roundabout way of saying it is inevitable. US likely knows best what it would take and so far weapon deliveries are around 10-30% of Ukrainian expectations. I bet the decision of 'no' has already been made.

Europe wasn't able to resist paying in rubles but somehow will effectively enforce price-caps. Even if this could be agreed upon in the EU (and the price of getting Hungary on-board would be considerable) Russia will just cut-off gas earlier then expected.

Russia is now officially in foreign debt default Might be another point of long-term economic damage but shouldn't change much as far as war goes.