pmp10

Azovstal to be blockaded instead of stormed Makes sense given the supposed number of civilians in there, but I doubt that means end of bombardment. A hostage situation might develop over this. Ukraine has already offered prisoners in exchange.

So, about that. And here I thought Scholz was being obtuse today.

The thing was caught by commercial satellite (or at least an eerily similar parade was) and analyzed. But with ship obviously gone I'm not sure it matters that much. And in more important news: Zelensky just announced that Russian Donbass offensive is now ongoing. Most likely the second most important battle of this war.

The after parade at Sevastopol was counted to be 240 crewman strong. There was also rumor from one of the survivors of another 200 being hospitalized. Numbers might be exaggerated but I seriously doubt most of the crew would be lost without the ship going immediately down.

New US aid package signed, will include howitzers. Slowly evolving the range of allowed weaponry.

Pretty sure the refugees of Syria wanted the same. It's too early to say that this will turn out to be a 3-month affair with relative peace afterwards.

It's not only about our housing (but that is an factor - if you thought it unaffordable just wait a year) but services. For example waiting times for surgery in Poland can now be measured in years. Everything in our societies that was mediocrely handled (and conveniently swept under the rug by COIVD) from education, thru health-care to energy transition will now come under serious stress. Central Poland.

It's not like there was much choice due to sheer scale of movement. Migrants and refugees make for a great topic for politicians as long as they don't come in the millions. Everyone knows eastern Europe can't offer them great conditions to live either. We will see exactly how much the west cares when the subject of money to support them comes about.

Many EU countries are working against escalation but you have to admit that Germany uniquely has sent some mixed messages. I think there is a running gag with German arms industry offering weaponry only for Scholtz to shoot them down. Might be a culture shock after Merkel who was very consistent in communication.

1k Ukrainian Marines are said to have surrendered at Mariupol Rumors have it that other units tried to break thru and join with Azov to mixed results.

The separatists were publicly toying with the idea at Mariupol steel plant, but (assuming it's even true) at only 3 injured this couldn't have been a serious strike.

Ukraine's economy to halve Lost roughly 20 years of development.

And they mentioned reusing Control tech for these.

Another thing missed yesterday: No tanks for Ukraine. That likely leaves total NATO contribution at the 5 Czech ones. I doubt any aircraft or serious artillery will be provided for the same reasons. Most likely ends Ukrainian hopes for retaking of the south.

Russia is rumored to be mobilizing reservists. Also reworking the command structure. Pretty much buries all peace hopes at least until next Russian offensive plays-out.

That looks like a part of the great European fracking revolution. Happening any day now for the last decade.

Yes, but that is propaganda. It's never easy to tell how common views like this are in the Russian society and more importantly how much they are willing to suffer for that vision. There is a good article that this is only the beginning. Personally I'm not convinced just yet.

I'm sure that between Poland, Czech Republic and Bulgaria you could assemble a small tank army. It's just that the operational ones are not spare and the spare ones are not operational. But for now it's not clear if numbers would be more than symbolic. That was more over alluded treason. Ukraine is not so united in the south and Donbass as they have proven in the west and north-east. The list of treasonous small-town mayors and police chiefs is also steadily growing.

Rumors have it that post-soviet tanks will be delivered to Ukraine along with already promised APCs. Plenty of junk T-72s around in eastern Europe I suppose but how do they plan to arrange replacements? It's the MIGs problem all over again.

Just another case that this is somehow Putin's war so a choice of a one man. The reality is his approval rating jumped and is now at 80%. The war might have been Putin's call, but like it or not, it is now Russia's war and majority embraces it. Hoping for a quick coup to return old normal is a fantasy. Even if you can beat Russia's armies you will not change the minds of its people.

I'd really like to believe that (EU by spilled blood so to speak) but I have serious doubts this would be allowed. We are talking a country poorer than Bulgaria, more corrupt than Romania, bigger than Poland and more conservative than Hungary. And that was even before a destructive war. In other war news overshadowed by the gas currency payments: UK plans on providing Ukraine with artillery and APCs Plenty of that available around eastern Europe so it's a bit odd to see UK test the waters with 'unfamiliar' military equipment. But I suppose they are little affected by any retaliations. Would also mean the first official hole in providing of 'defensive' support.

I'm no expert either. But the few I follow generally stress the priority would be to build a modern airforce and air defense systems. That involves cost that go far beyond javelins and stringers. Especially for countries that wouldn't provide a single truck or a 4x4. (leading to predictable buy-out of Toyota pickups in neighboring countries) And then there was the whole MIG transfer debacle. So the way I see it - serious military hardware is off the table.

No country is that generous, not even to allies. Let alone a poor European backwater country that is distracting US from pivoting to Asia.

Ukraine won't give up on NATO without security guarantees. The rumors are that Germany, Turkey and Italy will be involved in some promise of actual military deployment. But frankly that crowd doesn't inspire much confidence.

Not necessarily. This was on 1st week of war and the meeting took place in Ukrainian territory. That's a powerful message, one that likely dissuaded any oligarch from interfering in war matters.