pmp10

I don't see how he can archive his objectives without it. He seems to have no patience for slow strangulation and other effective options are occupation or making Ukraine permanently unstable. That is unless he flips on that 20-year long NATO membership suspension plan, but he shot that down hard yesterday.

So recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk by Duma is complete but the question of borders was largely dodged. Most likely leaving themselves a bargain chip for negotiations. Or another escalation excuse.

Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk republics has been officially announced. No details yet, but arming of the separatists should be expected at a minimum. Or they might skip a few escalation steps and move the Russian troops right in. This means Minsk accords are dead and dissected and EU will have to respond with sanctions. The only question being if they will go beyond symbolic ones.

And if they don't? Taking things public means he can no longer back down without something to show for this mess. So Putin committed to making the call today, there is only so much that last-minute diplomacy can do now. Better yet, one recommendation was to use the pre-2014 borders which would mean that good deal of territory will need 'liberating' from Ukrainian 'occupation'.

Seems like leaders of Luthanks and Donetks are right now in Moscow, publicly asking for official recognition. That could mean that the next talks will be the final chance for a Minsk-based solution.

That shouting can't last forever tho, media is bound to get bored eventually. The diplomatic rumors I heard is that major backing down by Ukraine is only a matter of time and face-saving pretenses.

And yet Russian diplomats keep insisting on implementing them, in the very least they are a useful wedge to drive between Ukraine and NATO.

Moving troops into Donetsk would mean burying Minsk accords for good. New agreement is unlikely to be made quickly without some application of violence. Besides, in this case the escalation scenario practically writes itself. Regular artillery exchanges will no longer kill 'separatists' or 'little green men' but Russian soldiers. And that of course demands retaliation. I don't see how NATO could ignore that.

NATO PoV is that these are Ukrainian provinces. What will they call Russian 'peacekeepers' moving in? And more importantly what will they be willing to do about it.

Russian duma requests official recognition of Donbass separatists. Putin refers to situation there as genocide. We are two signatures away from a real test of a definition of an 'invasion'.

Damaging Ukrainian economy by making business there uninsurable might just be good enough. All that is necessary is to drag this out.

Ukraine has to allocate millions just to keep airlines flying. If this panic spreading is a cynical game by the US then they are handing Putin a serious win.

The whole of eastern and most of central Europe had a warmer winter than usual. That's why the gas prices 'only' tripled.

The objectives are pretty clearly understood, it's the US response to Russia that is baffling so far. Parts of Ukrainian government have already gone conspiratorial on this. Supposedly it's a US ploy to deliberately spread panic and force giving up on Crimea and Donbas to ease financial pressure.

That is only one way of looking at politics of it. He also reveled EU to be hopelessly divided and US to be prone to hysterics.

Only if that threat of war is a serious one. If this is a intimidation tactic that it's a sign of panicking easily in a protracted war of nerves. Guarantees Putin more leverage in negotiations.

Another interesting Ukraine tidbit: US is preparing embassy evacuation plans I always thought Biden's 'imminent invasion' rhetoric and gaffes were calculated to whip Germany and France into united NATO position, but he really seems to believe it. I can't see how you can justify that view given Russian army dispositions at this moment. Maybe POTUS distrust military intelligence after Afghanistan.

I'm sure that after Afghanistan nobody can be certain of political outcomes once things start going south. I doubt Putin would mind a Kievian rump state provided it's tiny and insignificant.

It's wasn't even the amount of text but that majority of the bloat was lore-dumping. I know BG2 did it trying to imitate Tolkien but for me it really doesn't work outside of book format.

There might be no need to occupy much of Ukraine after a successful regime change. The country is still likely pretty divided and it should perfectly possible to buy-off the elites, or show the common people the error of their ways with serious energy scarcity.

Roughly 5% of deaths are among fully vaccinated. That's why anti-vaxxer love to compare number of deaths while conveniently forgetting to mention vaccination rate among population.

Germany made that call long ago. They have to temporarily make pretenses as NS2 is being used for energy blackmail before being even opened. But that's just the price of doing business with Russia, I'm sure it's been factored in. Ukraine's well being has no place it German calculations.

If so, that would only be for technical testing as the thing is still uncertified. Reverse flow to Poland would have to come from other sources.

The immigrants are not interested in anything but Germany. I doubt Lukaszenko expects Poland or Lithuania to do a 180° either. Berlin is another matter as official recognition and lifting of EU sanctions are all up for grabs.

Then maybe it should be looked upon as an opportunity? They missed the chance to let airlines go under during the pandemic, but now is a great time to allow petrol and gas prices to rise. if not they could at least spare us more lectures and spectacles.