pmp10

I'm no expert either. But the few I follow generally stress the priority would be to build a modern airforce and air defense systems. That involves cost that go far beyond javelins and stringers. Especially for countries that wouldn't provide a single truck or a 4x4. (leading to predictable buy-out of Toyota pickups in neighboring countries) And then there was the whole MIG transfer debacle. So the way I see it - serious military hardware is off the table.

No country is that generous, not even to allies. Let alone a poor European backwater country that is distracting US from pivoting to Asia.

Ukraine won't give up on NATO without security guarantees. The rumors are that Germany, Turkey and Italy will be involved in some promise of actual military deployment. But frankly that crowd doesn't inspire much confidence.

Not necessarily. This was on 1st week of war and the meeting took place in Ukrainian territory. That's a powerful message, one that likely dissuaded any oligarch from interfering in war matters.

If it's the one I saw then it would violate board's ToS. In case no western media picks it up, you can easily find it by googling 'Russian pow abuse'. It's an open secret that Russian PoWs are not treated kindly.

An interesting little fact that went under-reported: A few day ago 'United Russia' has opened an office in Mariupol even while fighting for the city center was still taking place. That could mean captured southern Ukrainian land is meant for straight up annexation Crimea-style.

Yes, but these areas are being actively defended. And let's be honest - Russians are capable of much worse than they have done so far. The tower was hit shortly before Biden started a speech in Poland. Like previous long-range strike on international volunteers this was likely meant to send a political message.

The 500 Russians and 1300 Ukrainians might be self-reported numbers but they are three and two week old respectively. And that is assuming their MoD can be trusted, which I wouldn't since they refused to update the numbers since release. The US estimations showed that Russians have lost 10% combat strength by now which would mean 10k KIAs is plausible. But when it comes to Ukraine all we know is that early on they were trading proportionally 2 to 1 in that metric. Unless that changed that could place them at around 20k dead by now.

Turns out an expansion is in the works I was pretty sure this was dead given the lethargic patching.

It's not at all clear that Russians are the ones bleeding more. We don't know the Ukrainian losses and red army is very artillery heavy. I wouldn't bet on the land bridge part just yet. He will soon control everything from Kherson to Mariupol and that is enough for a bridge and two more separatist republics. It will all depend on how long can Russia grind it out.

Reproductive replaceability. Pretty sure we are at plan C by now but that doesn't mean he has no objectives. Even if Ukraine cannot be subjugated on this occasion there is always the long run. Take Chechnia for example. They have won their first war with Russia and it still did them little good in the end.

With this attitude this war isn't going to end soon. Not only is good part of the country occupied but almost 10% of population has fled. No referendum can have validity in these conditions, the whole idea must be just a stalling tactic Besides that, polls showed 80% of Ukrainians were unwilling to even give-up on Crimea. He likely knows they will outright reject any Russian demands for stripping Ukraine of more territory.

According to Erdogan Putin is not budging on his conditions. Also no demand for sanction lifting which is interesting. Unless they consider it self evident.

Political control of Ukraine. Warsaw-pact style if they can, Chechnya style if they must.

Zelensky has been dropping hints to it for a while. Made no difference to Putin as he shot down peace talks on 'insufficient progress' . Besides NATO there will also be the EU and entire political future of Ukraine. And there is always the problem that Ukraine will still expect security guarantees elsewhere, even if it's hard to imagine who would provide them.

Just note that these are rarely apples to apples comparisons. I think the Ukrainian number is general casualties so aside from fatalities it can include prisoners, wounded, deserted, cut-off and lost. Which could lead to a problem when the same unit is counted as casualties multiple times.

US seems convinced they already said yes. Shouldn't starting serious military support take a few weeks tho?

I wouldn't put too much credence to it. There are a lot of demonizing rumors about Russian forces going around right now. 'Not one step back' brigades, mobile crematoria, finishing off own wounded, mining corpses and so on. Usually spread by the same people who said Putin fired multiple subordinates (presumably Darth Vader style), yet we still see them showing up in official news footage.

Over a week ago. The story goes that some recon elements crossed the border and quickly turned back when the main body of troops refused to obey the attack order. Belarussians have been sitting on the attack positions ever since.

I'm sorry but you are saying that peace talks would lose him face but bankruptcy of the country and resulting military collapse won't. And another thing while we are on the subject of economy: Just how certain are we, that Ukraine will not go bankrupt before Russia? It was a poor country to begin with, and by now most economic activity has pretty much ceased. For all we know Kiev can fall within weeks and I'm not convinced the most biting sanctions will last beyond a peace treaty. I'm also seeing a lot of bets that this is a 3-months war and the push for 'old normal' will get strong afterwards.

If Russian position was this bad why refuse to talk? Economy is not my forte but I think they can achieve victory even when technically bankrupt.

Seems the diplomatic meeting in Turkey was short and fruitless. Both sides are looking to be in this for a long haul. Guess we might really see just how much economic war can west stomach.

Some (rumored) background on this farce. In essence 'Poland and NATO do clandestine operation'.

Most likely afraid of Russian retaliation. There is also some possibility that they cannot be retooled properly in Poland or genuine legal doubts were found about flying them directly from a NATO country. But I'd put my money on simple fear. Sure, but then we are practically talking a lend-lease program here and Moscow might see that as a major escalation. And (costs involved aside) these things can't fight by themselves. Ukrainian military is likely already fully engaged and there will not be enough time to train and equip new units with any complex hardware.

Yes, IIRC there was at least one transport of javelins since the war started. Even if I have that wrong I'm sure numerous weapon shipments have passed thru Polish part of the border.