pmp10

Over a week ago. The story goes that some recon elements crossed the border and quickly turned back when the main body of troops refused to obey the attack order. Belarussians have been sitting on the attack positions ever since.

I'm sorry but you are saying that peace talks would lose him face but bankruptcy of the country and resulting military collapse won't. And another thing while we are on the subject of economy: Just how certain are we, that Ukraine will not go bankrupt before Russia? It was a poor country to begin with, and by now most economic activity has pretty much ceased. For all we know Kiev can fall within weeks and I'm not convinced the most biting sanctions will last beyond a peace treaty. I'm also seeing a lot of bets that this is a 3-months war and the push for 'old normal' will get strong afterwards.

If Russian position was this bad why refuse to talk? Economy is not my forte but I think they can achieve victory even when technically bankrupt.

Seems the diplomatic meeting in Turkey was short and fruitless. Both sides are looking to be in this for a long haul. Guess we might really see just how much economic war can west stomach.

Some (rumored) background on this farce. In essence 'Poland and NATO do clandestine operation'.

Most likely afraid of Russian retaliation. There is also some possibility that they cannot be retooled properly in Poland or genuine legal doubts were found about flying them directly from a NATO country. But I'd put my money on simple fear. Sure, but then we are practically talking a lend-lease program here and Moscow might see that as a major escalation. And (costs involved aside) these things can't fight by themselves. Ukrainian military is likely already fully engaged and there will not be enough time to train and equip new units with any complex hardware.

Yes, IIRC there was at least one transport of javelins since the war started. Even if I have that wrong I'm sure numerous weapon shipments have passed thru Polish part of the border.

The planes are getting transferred to US for a rather pitiful pretense of polish non-involvement. I would expect them to either openly go with this on day 3, or never bow to pressure. Instead they kept sending mixed messages, (even after officially denying the news) likely trying to drive some bargain. In result they showed themselves afraid, wasted crucial time and fooled no-one.

According to US intel Russian SAM coverage has already been established. Besides Russian air force is not as active as was expected so need for interceptors is questionable. Now if they get to transfer Su-25s from Bulgaria that could actually count for something.

Yet another complete turnaround by the polish government then. That they would try to hide behind US with this, after decades of 'evil Russia' rhetoric might just be a new low for the ruling party. And I'm pretty sure it is too late for them to do much good by now.

Russia is not going anywhere. Chinas, Irans, Indias and Pakistans might be a problem from the perspective of a global superpower. For eastern Europe it will be just Russia.

Rest of Europe may do as it will. But we will bow down to that 'imperialism' precisely because it grants us security from Russia that no one else would. If we could trust Germany/France there would be no need for US involvement.

Something might be happening on that front as there will be opportunity to talk in Turkey. In time it might turn into actual negotiations, the discussions on the Belarusian border are unlikely to result in more than local cease-fires.

But there was also this: Can mean anything and the terms are not so generous if they keep demanding giving up on any chance of military resistance in the future.

The whole thing was hopelessly confused but Ukrainian intelligence stated that he worked for them and was no traitor. In all likelihood a covert operation went spectacularly wrong.

And who will provide the liberating armies in this case? With NATO drawing the line at soldier equipment I suppose this task falls to Moldavia? Them or someone worse. No country can fight up to 10 years of brutal irregular warfare and emerge a bastion of democracy and liberal values. War brutalizes people, this part of the world should be perfectly aware of that.

You only need to look at Syria and Afghanistan to understand the costs of insurgency. It's of course Ukrainian people choice to make, but it would take many years of fighting and guarantee plenty of death and destruction in not too-rich nation to begin with. And I'm pretty sure the Ukraine that could win an insurgency will have no place in the west. In the process of fighting it would become something scary, a country that no one would want around.

NATO officially rejects any idea of a no-fly zone. Was pretty much a given after refusal to provide aircraft but now it's official. Ukraine, like it or not, is returning to Russian SoI. Unless they will resort to insurgency to try drag Russians with them into ruin.

He could likely get that and recognition of Crimea already. But there is also the demand to demilitarize as well. Ukrainian morale is running a little too high after first fighting and Zelensky couldn't implement that even if he wanted to. Besides, the aim is very clear to do this again if Russia is displeased for whatever reason. Sure, but the money will eventually have to come from the average taxpayer. Unless we are heading for an insurgency/cold war scenario you simply cannot justify that sacrifice long term.

If we are talking oil then you know OPEC quotas limit the supply. And of course it was the cheapest supply in much of Europe, that is why it was bought and that is why sanctioning it would lead to economic pain.

Sure but wast majority is contracted long-term and increasing production will take years. There are good reasons why fossil fuel imports were excluded from sanctions, and that is even before political backsliding begins.

And backtracked already. I'm starting to wonder if people are trying to push things by leaking opinions of some officials.

Belorussians are on the move Okay, but you'd still at least want radar for command and control and I assume that is largely gone now. Then again, maybe NATO would provide that as part of intelligence.

Some 70 combat aircrafts are to be transferred to Ukraine. That's crazy, do they even have pilots for them let alone intact airfields?

He might have already. A massive fireball has just erupted during bombing of Kiev. Clearly Putin is done with hearts and minds.