pmp10

Not even Israel can censor away a hit by a 1,500 kg warhead. Far more likely it was simply shot down.

They launched at Israel their latest and greatest - Khorramshahr-4. There are no reports of it hitting anything, but then a single missile could have been a message to other gulf states.

There is always (admittedly a little conspiratorial) possibility that far from being rogue, Israel is doing exactly what it was asked to do. The wider west could have already made the decision to start bombing but hopes Israel can win by itself or at least goad Iran into escalation serving as an excuse. Granted, it does seems a little too clever for Trump.

There is no reliable way for us to judge that. Iran wasn't offered any face-savers yet, but then the operation was planned for weeks.

That's just US pretending multipolar order isn't real. Their ability to restrain Israel is clearly nil at this point.

NATO troops will still station there, Ukraine will continue to be westernized. If it is ever allowed to join EU it will be covered by defense treaty anyway. Russia has no reason to accept this, not unless US is offering something much bigger then sanction relief. I wonder how certain is eastern Europe of future US presence.

Zelensky dosen't need to give up on Crimea just as Putin won't officially drop claims to Kherson. I assume it's the US recognition that's being offered in this case.

So Russia effectively admits strategic defeat, allows Ukraine to join EU, ignores NATO troops stationed there and even allows US control of Zaporizhzhia's NPP. All because Ukraine admits it won't join NATO and US accepts that Crimea is in Russian control? Bribing Russians with what they already have. A classic of diplomacy.

Trump seems to still be pushing that mineral deal so it seems unlikely. Unless he can get a political 'win' somewhere else.

Wait until you've worked under enterprise architect hired that way.

There is also the carrot of sanctions lifting. I'm just not sure how much peace it can buy.

There is still room to add before we reach Iran-level of sanctions. But it's purely for show at this stage, mitigation strategies are already developed and in place.

I wonder if that's the level commitment EU has in mind. Somehow I doubt Putin will lose sleep over it.

The thing is Ukraine is never getting official security guarantees. It's still not clear if they refuse to believe that or think it a very high value negotiating point.

Sure but people were generally pardoned for specific crimes. Even Trump stuck to that. I think the only other person to get 'any crimes included' package was Nixon.

If Biden can pardon for everything and anything for a decade I wonder what Trump will do with the precedent. 6th January gang will likely be only the start.

That's not likely to last. I bet Bibi will show up in Berlin or Warsaw before too long.

It seems winter missile strikes are already starting. Ukrainian electrical grid is already badly strained so this could become a serious problem. That said, Russia can't exactly blow up nuclear power plants and winter was forecasted to be mild.

Just finished Alan Wake 2. A mediocre game but a fascinating experience. After decades of gaming you'd think you've seen it all, and then Herald of Darkness begins to play...

But Article 5 comes with no obligation. Even if it did, you have no way to punish states refusing to fulfil them. For all we know, without US NATO might turn out to be all about 'Thoughts and prayers'.

So after Zelensky's victory plan was ignored in the west it has finally come to nukes. "We need NATO or nukes … and we want NATO" He will likely be forced to retract that soon, but this might be a sign that he is finally starting to get it.

In somewhat related news: More rumors are surfacing that Russia is considering arming the Houthis. Likely still far from a done deal, but it's a good indication that Russian escalation options are more than just nukes.

Iran is said to have delivered ballistic missiles to Russia. That's an escalation a level (or two) beyond suppling Shahed drones. But also likely means no bigger war brewing in the middle-east.

This was likely an open secret for a while now. Chances are that news release was timed to distract from Kursk. Just another shot in the propaganda wars.

First F-16s have finally been delivered to Ukraine. For now they are supposed to be few in number.