pmp10

So the peace talks hosted by Saudis are over and predictably no much got done without Russian participation. But you can see Ukrainian position starts to shift: Ukraine is no longer insisting on Russian withdrawal as condition for talks.

Ukraine / US start discussion on security guarantees. Not long ago, Ukraine would laugh them off as no better than Budapest memorandum. If the war is to be frozen then Ukraine will survive or fall depending on these terms.

The Saudis are about to join the 'we have a peace plan' club. Interestingly, Russia and China are not expected to attend the talks, so it's essentially a glorified effort to lobby the global south. Pretty surprising twist after all the US spiting they have done recently.

Some details emerge about the unofficial US-Russia talks. If the account is true then Russia is unclear on their objectives at this point. Or they have no intention on unveiling them just yet. Also an interesting view that Putin is the key stumbling block to any negotiated agreement.

Stopping Russia at this point means (at the minimum) financing a stalemated forever-war for many years. Even UK has balked at the idea and they are among the more hawkish supporters of Ukraine. I'd expect that freezing the conflict is far more likely, even if it's certain to reignite later on Russian terms.

Leaked US documents said as much. But then Ukraine would never be armed to this extent without promising a successful counteroffensive.

The NATO summit is delivering drama. US is unhappy with Zelensky being openly unhappy with the summit. He even publicly tweeted that Ukraine's NATO membership is used as a bargaining chip for negotiations with Russia.

According to NBC the US was having high-profile talks with Russia back in April. We can assume they came to nothing since I can't recall any policy changes around that time.

Seems Ukrainian plans remain unchanged for now. Burns was told the idea is still to retake ground and threaten Crimea to force Russia into negotiations. I wonder what their plan is if the ground cannot be taken.

Apparently Prigozhin accepted some deal negotiated by Lukashenko. That would mean he either badly overplayed his hand or actually believes amnesty is possilbe after a stunt like this. If he actually can get away with it that's quite a blow to Putin's authority.

Putin does that with potential enemies. He never referred to Navalny by his name either.

Something interesting I missed recently: Some 20+ Azov members are to be tried in Russia including PoWs from Mariupol. Good indication that Russia is loosing interest in any settlement.

So the position of the west is almost settled. No NATO membership plan will be offered to Ukraine at Vilnius. That means the best Zelensky can count on is the Israeli model. After Budapest memorandum he should understand the implications.

Biden just approved another weaponry package for Ukraine. Included are 15 Bradleys - almost exactly the amount Ukraine was supposed to lose during a recent assault. Almost certainly a message meant for Russia.

Discussions about future Ukrainian security continue. Seems there is still no consensus in the West.

Pretty sure he'd say that order either just failed or was never there to begin with. Long past that. A milion Euro / day fine is accumulating for over an year now.

A very outspoken (and very retired) general suggested that Poland should intervene in case of uprising in Belarus. Got him the same eyerolls as his earlier suggestions to attack Kaliningrad.

For now it's almost certainly a bluff. In Poland no politician has even dared to publicly mention anything of the sort. But that brings up the more interesting question of what the west is willing to offer Ukraine. There has been some talk of the 'hedgehog' or 'Israel' model, but it sounds like just arming Ukraine and hoping for the best.

NATO summit in July is slowly closing. Zelensky threatens to boycott it if Ukraine is not given an 'accession signal'. I wonder what would satisfy Ukraine as major players (US included) oppose membership roadmap at this point. The expectation was that the offensive would change things but as things stand, it may not even start before then.

I'd say it's less a serious peace offer and more a signal to the west. They are apparently willing to give-up on regime change and direct control of the country. But they are not about to let Ukraine get-off from that Russian cutting board.

Russia has finally hinted at its peace conditions. Besides accepting de facto territorial changes Ukrainian 'neutrality' is expected. What is new that in now means no EU integration as well as no NATO. Ukraine responded with equally maximalist demands.

G7 has been warning that Ukraine cannot turn into a frozen conflict. Pretty surprising and they didn't seem to mind beforehand. If this is a serious position then F16s can be seen more as a stick to get Russia to negotiate rather than a carrot for Ukraine.

US is now fine with Ukraine getting F-16s. It's not about to provide any (yet?) but chances are that some European countries will. This leaves ATACMS as the final tech that US would not provide so far.

And in diplomatic news: Chinees envoy was told Ukraine won't accept territorial loss or freezing of the conflict. We will see if anything changes after the offensive or the NATO summit.

Turns out Zelensky at one point planned occupation of Russian territory. Seems he doesn't think Ukraine has much diplomatic leverage. At one point he was also upset enough with Hungary to suggest striking at the Druzhba pipeline.