pmp10

Russia has resumed strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This likely buries any chances for near-term diplomacy.

Latest RUSI report on the Ukrainian offensive. Mostly tactical details but can still be informative.

Or more likely they were rushing the story out the door with little verification. The initial witness impression were that this was a missile strike, plus wrong video was doing the rounds on social media. Not that I disagree on modern 'experts' tailoring findings to expectations.

It's unlikely Putin would pull this trigger without feeling secure. I mean they didn't even bother with an accident.

Must have done too good of a job avoiding tea, windows and hotel laundry service. But as an insider he should have known better than count on forgiveness.

That would be a great deal for Ukraine if it was remotely credible. Russia will never agree to what would be an outright defeat and there is no way to strong-arm Hungary to accept enlargement. But the territorial concessions part is believable.

Biden is about to request more funds from congress to support Ukraine. This is the first time since election so should be a good indicator of support for Ukraine.

By now it safe to say that objectives were hopelessly unrealistic, but it's impossible to say if that is on military or political leadership. There is also the chance that both though that this is doable, unfortunate consequence of believing your own propaganda.

So the peace talks hosted by Saudis are over and predictably no much got done without Russian participation. But you can see Ukrainian position starts to shift: Ukraine is no longer insisting on Russian withdrawal as condition for talks.

Ukraine / US start discussion on security guarantees. Not long ago, Ukraine would laugh them off as no better than Budapest memorandum. If the war is to be frozen then Ukraine will survive or fall depending on these terms.

The Saudis are about to join the 'we have a peace plan' club. Interestingly, Russia and China are not expected to attend the talks, so it's essentially a glorified effort to lobby the global south. Pretty surprising twist after all the US spiting they have done recently.

Some details emerge about the unofficial US-Russia talks. If the account is true then Russia is unclear on their objectives at this point. Or they have no intention on unveiling them just yet. Also an interesting view that Putin is the key stumbling block to any negotiated agreement.

Stopping Russia at this point means (at the minimum) financing a stalemated forever-war for many years. Even UK has balked at the idea and they are among the more hawkish supporters of Ukraine. I'd expect that freezing the conflict is far more likely, even if it's certain to reignite later on Russian terms.

Leaked US documents said as much. But then Ukraine would never be armed to this extent without promising a successful counteroffensive.

The NATO summit is delivering drama. US is unhappy with Zelensky being openly unhappy with the summit. He even publicly tweeted that Ukraine's NATO membership is used as a bargaining chip for negotiations with Russia.

According to NBC the US was having high-profile talks with Russia back in April. We can assume they came to nothing since I can't recall any policy changes around that time.

Seems Ukrainian plans remain unchanged for now. Burns was told the idea is still to retake ground and threaten Crimea to force Russia into negotiations. I wonder what their plan is if the ground cannot be taken.

Apparently Prigozhin accepted some deal negotiated by Lukashenko. That would mean he either badly overplayed his hand or actually believes amnesty is possilbe after a stunt like this. If he actually can get away with it that's quite a blow to Putin's authority.

Putin does that with potential enemies. He never referred to Navalny by his name either.

Something interesting I missed recently: Some 20+ Azov members are to be tried in Russia including PoWs from Mariupol. Good indication that Russia is loosing interest in any settlement.

So the position of the west is almost settled. No NATO membership plan will be offered to Ukraine at Vilnius. That means the best Zelensky can count on is the Israeli model. After Budapest memorandum he should understand the implications.

Biden just approved another weaponry package for Ukraine. Included are 15 Bradleys - almost exactly the amount Ukraine was supposed to lose during a recent assault. Almost certainly a message meant for Russia.

Discussions about future Ukrainian security continue. Seems there is still no consensus in the West.

Pretty sure he'd say that order either just failed or was never there to begin with. Long past that. A milion Euro / day fine is accumulating for over an year now.

A very outspoken (and very retired) general suggested that Poland should intervene in case of uprising in Belarus. Got him the same eyerolls as his earlier suggestions to attack Kaliningrad.