pmp10

Grain transports leave Odessa in defiance of Russian withdrawal from the deal. We will see what their reaction is.

The plan to cap Russian oil price is being 'reworked'. The last form of economic leverage that west has over Russia is not looking so hot anymore.

According the IMF Ukraine needs 3-5 billion $ per month over 2023. This was already understood for some time and US (and even EC) has occasionally talked about moving from aid packages to regular subsidies. A good test if west has staying power in this war.

Interesting calculations on the basis of 'excess weddings' suggests that Russia conscripted close to half a million men. There were rumors that they weren't about to stop at the 300k mark.

Russian prank call to Ukrainian official has recently been leaked. Among a lot of minor details there is a very interesting statement that Ukraine is about to run out of S300 and BUK missiles. Apparently they have been strongly pushing US and NATO for the old HAWK systems.

Russians are starting civilian evacuation of Kherson. I wonder if troops are next?

They might be just cheap and numerous enough to wreck Ukrainian power infrastructure and exhaust anti-aircraft munitions. And chances are they are just the beginning as Iranian ballistic missiles are rumored to follow soon. Either way, they are a largely unexpected boost to Russian capabilities.

Suffice to say I think considering capability and responsibility EU has nothing to be proud of. Or at least so far. We will soon see if it can at all adapt to a longer war.

Not really once you realize that most of his entries are not refuges related and CARE / REACT are funds already spent elsewhere, which EU graciously allowed to be reallocated at the cost to initial intended recipients. Elerond only point is that EU helped fund the internal refugees in Ukraine, which I admit is not what I had in mind.

EU? No. It failed to find a single cent to account for millions of Ukrainian refugees. Individual countries? Sure, but that doesn't get the EU off the hook.

US is growing frustrated over EUs inaction. They are still not getting it that they will have to do this alone.

Yes it is. When US effort is underway to internationally isolate a country this is very clear side taking. Not unlike say, OPEC cutting oil production when oil price caps are suggested.

India is still abstaining. Seems the recent public talk-downs of Putin were for show.

Forgot to repost: Ukraine is being increasingly propped-up by US alone.

The 'state sponsor of terror' ones were a 'No' just a month ago.

A couple of things of note about the recent attacks: Russia has not run out of long range missiles, they were (are?) stockpiling them. Lukashenko is claiming NATO/Ukraine is about to invade and is deploying mixed Belarusian/Russian units to defend. Likely his arm is being twisted harder and harder to join in the fighting.

Among targets hit today is a lot of energy infrastructure. I expect Russians will use the bridge strike as an excuse to target power facilities Ukraine-wide. Most likely a couple months ahead of schedule but this outcome was predictable.

Is it really any worse than remotely blowing-up an unwitting Russian truck driver?

If NYT is to be believed the bomb was truck-borne and strike organized by Ukrainian intelligence service. We can't be sure the driver was aware of his cargo, but yes - many in the west will not like the similarity.

Russians reopening the road traffic already: Not about to help their reputation for lax safety standards. Must be really sure there is no follow-up coming either.

Bridge strike as a late gift for Putin's birthday. I understand the sentiment but you'd really think Ukrainians would have bigger priorities.

It's really interesting that this is reported only now. You'd think that US found that out soon after the assassination. People have been speculating that it's a deliberate leak to send a message to Kiev over something.

I don't think we are in the 'good old days' just yet. For all the shouting and rhetoric I think few in Moscow or Kiev think that owning Kherson is for them existential.

Two interesting US developments likely in response to mobilization and annexations: New US Army command to coordinate Ukraine assistance will be build in Germany. US is planning to move to constant financial aid and pushes EU to do the same. They are clearly willing to take this long term, but placing command structures in Germany is a little surprising if they can see that EU is stalling on assistance.

Maybe so, but in a way they are a logical escalation of his views. He already claimed to be fighting the 'unipolar world order' made by the US. Blaming 'Anglo-Saxons' for imperialism of past centuries was just an appeal for support to any like-minded countries and peoples worldwide.