pmp10

These munitions won't last forever. And there is always a good chance that western response will crush Ukrainian will to resist.

Precisely why this is happening. If Ukraine folds within a week not even serious sanctions might happen. The gamble is that the west will accept a quick win as a fait accompli. I thought a 'madman' act was put on display for better negotiation leverage. Instead he must have twisted many arms to get Russian army to go forward with it.

Would explain mystery of the Kiev airport.

Gunshots are reported around Kiev airport and Putin just said he has no plans to occupy the country. This makes some crazy sense now, he is thinking regime change Kabul '79 style. Also explains the names lists, troop dispositions and intelligence on the invasion dates. Little wonder some in armed forces leaked that to the US, too bad it wasn't enough to dissuade him. That would mean his expectation is easy collapse of resistance if not outright surrender after first clashes.

Putin orders military operations in Ukraine Explosions are already reported in Kiev, might mean a full scale invasion instead of just grabbing Donetsk.

Right now they don't. But if they see EU or NATO being useless things might change.

Don't speak for the whole Europe on this. In the east there will be much more willingness to impose sanctions.

I don't see how he can archive his objectives without it. He seems to have no patience for slow strangulation and other effective options are occupation or making Ukraine permanently unstable. That is unless he flips on that 20-year long NATO membership suspension plan, but he shot that down hard yesterday.

So recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk by Duma is complete but the question of borders was largely dodged. Most likely leaving themselves a bargain chip for negotiations. Or another escalation excuse.

Russian recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk republics has been officially announced. No details yet, but arming of the separatists should be expected at a minimum. Or they might skip a few escalation steps and move the Russian troops right in. This means Minsk accords are dead and dissected and EU will have to respond with sanctions. The only question being if they will go beyond symbolic ones.

And if they don't? Taking things public means he can no longer back down without something to show for this mess. So Putin committed to making the call today, there is only so much that last-minute diplomacy can do now. Better yet, one recommendation was to use the pre-2014 borders which would mean that good deal of territory will need 'liberating' from Ukrainian 'occupation'.

Seems like leaders of Luthanks and Donetks are right now in Moscow, publicly asking for official recognition. That could mean that the next talks will be the final chance for a Minsk-based solution.

That shouting can't last forever tho, media is bound to get bored eventually. The diplomatic rumors I heard is that major backing down by Ukraine is only a matter of time and face-saving pretenses.

And yet Russian diplomats keep insisting on implementing them, in the very least they are a useful wedge to drive between Ukraine and NATO.

Moving troops into Donetsk would mean burying Minsk accords for good. New agreement is unlikely to be made quickly without some application of violence. Besides, in this case the escalation scenario practically writes itself. Regular artillery exchanges will no longer kill 'separatists' or 'little green men' but Russian soldiers. And that of course demands retaliation. I don't see how NATO could ignore that.

NATO PoV is that these are Ukrainian provinces. What will they call Russian 'peacekeepers' moving in? And more importantly what will they be willing to do about it.

Russian duma requests official recognition of Donbass separatists. Putin refers to situation there as genocide. We are two signatures away from a real test of a definition of an 'invasion'.

Damaging Ukrainian economy by making business there uninsurable might just be good enough. All that is necessary is to drag this out.

Ukraine has to allocate millions just to keep airlines flying. If this panic spreading is a cynical game by the US then they are handing Putin a serious win.

The whole of eastern and most of central Europe had a warmer winter than usual. That's why the gas prices 'only' tripled.

The objectives are pretty clearly understood, it's the US response to Russia that is baffling so far. Parts of Ukrainian government have already gone conspiratorial on this. Supposedly it's a US ploy to deliberately spread panic and force giving up on Crimea and Donbas to ease financial pressure.

That is only one way of looking at politics of it. He also reveled EU to be hopelessly divided and US to be prone to hysterics.

Only if that threat of war is a serious one. If this is a intimidation tactic that it's a sign of panicking easily in a protracted war of nerves. Guarantees Putin more leverage in negotiations.

Another interesting Ukraine tidbit: US is preparing embassy evacuation plans I always thought Biden's 'imminent invasion' rhetoric and gaffes were calculated to whip Germany and France into united NATO position, but he really seems to believe it. I can't see how you can justify that view given Russian army dispositions at this moment. Maybe POTUS distrust military intelligence after Afghanistan.

I'm sure that after Afghanistan nobody can be certain of political outcomes once things start going south. I doubt Putin would mind a Kievian rump state provided it's tiny and insignificant.