pmp10

There really is no 'normal' to get back to anymore. Putin is past the point of backing down and sanctions will have to stay in place for a long time to come. And far more important is that he made some top European politicians look ridiculous.

Personally I loved the one where Russians were getting their tanks stolen by gypsies. I get that there is Ukrainian morale to consider and everyone loves to help, but the world is doing Ukrainians a disservice. There will be one rude awakening one day that no only are they being badly beaten but are also dying for a hopeless cause. That's how 'stab in the back' legends are born and cause issues for generations.

And Kiev has been encircled, or at least the city's Mayor claims so. That western aid is really unlikely to ever reach places where it's really needed.

Selective reporting and wishful thinking that results in misidentification. To be fair position of Mariupol is not really defensible. I'm sorry but is this allowed? I thought we were all armchair-experts only?

And first negotiations start. Not sure what the point is, Lukashenko can't refuse joining in at this point and Putin will demand almost complete surrender. Maybe they just want to deny them the propaganda opportunity that all talk offers were rejected?

Kharkiv is secure after all. Another case of recon element launching a probe attack that was reported as full scale assault.

Sure, and footage only shows Russian recon elements at this point but let's not pretend they need every single cellar to surrender before moving on.

Seems Kharkiv is about to fall if it didn't already. With Lukaszenka about to commit Belarussian troops this is not looking good for Ukraine.

I think Iran called it NATO caused. I'm sure there will be the usual Cuba/Venezuela and a few minor others taking Russian friendly stance. I don't know, at his early point he may not either. If the primary objective is no NATO involvement and demilitarization then there is no need to occupy anything. All that is necessary is to force the change of constitution, wreck any military equipment, impose arms inspectors and fly-overs. But I don't see how he can pull a 'denazification' without a months of man-hunt by loyal troops. Yeah, no. I just made more of them then others. I just got unhealthily obsessed, my prediction record is about that of a coin-toss.

There have been numerous reports of Russians using Ukrainian uniforms so at the very least it makes good 'psyops' sense as Zor would put it. For all we know it can be true. Maybe elements of Ukrainian army might have really defected and none was keen to publicly admit it. Maybe in confusion friendly fire has been taken to extreme and the dead labeled as Russians.

Interesting, might be geographical difference then. I guess we will see soon enough. We are nearing 48 hours now and shock and awe ought to be letting off now. I would expect resistance to either start hardening or collapsing at this point.

Funny because I didn't have this impression. Social media is full of fit military-age men running for the border and no Ukrainian men in my professional environment is rushing back either.

Italian Luxury goods and Belgian Diamonds were rumored to be the sticking points in imposing EU sanctions yesterday. Quite ironic that they would sanction oligarchs in EU but refuse to sanction products intended for them. And another sanction that will really sting - Russia is off Eurovision. And on the war front it seems that a third of Russian troops is now committed. If there is any hope for Ukraine it would be that after spearhead units are engaged, the reminder of Russians will turn out too demoralized to fight effectively.

Sizable maybe, but I doubt if sheer numbers count for much in the era of precision munitions. I don't think we have the morale for human wave attacks either.

Oh I wish. Latest war games rated Poland at one week of active resistance against Russia without NATO involvement. Jokes were running that assumption was Russians needed 3 days to sober up.

No army in eastern Europe comes close to Russian capability. At best there could be a symbolic 'let's die together' stand / suicide pact with Ukrainian troops. Symbolic contributions to NATO.

You sir, are an insult to the art of trolling. Back on topic - Ukrainian side is growing more and more desperate. Handing out assault rifles, stopping men up to 65 from leaving the country, calling for Molotov ****tail defense of cities. And with combat reported in Kiev finally this:

Sorry but you are effectively saying he will invade NATO while bogged down in Ukrainian insurgency. I mean he might be crazy but there is still calculation behind his actions. In fact, he seems to have estimated the western response pretty well. And if it's the same Ukrainian government that was ruling the country last week? Do you then isolate Ukraine that will be insisting that they are now fine with 'demilitarization', recognition of Crimea/separatists republic and never joining NATO? What if Russian troops retreat and there is no need to occupy anything because the new Ukraine will have changed enough to their liking?

Welp. If that is going too far then I'm giving it 5 years until next episode set in Moldova.

Apparently Macron was talking just talking to Putin. After the previous 'personal assurances' and 'torture by talking' this must make for an awkward conversation.

There was also the seizing of bank assets but that doesn't improve the response much. No will in EU to cut SWIFT and energy sanctions also seem of the table. Russian propaganda will have great time with this. Worse - what if Putin retaliates with energy sanctions of his own.

Do surrounded pockets and big cities count? I guess urban combat will be a good indication if Ukrainian population will resist.

Seems Ukraine is losing airports all over the country to airborne landing and there is a rumor of a major para drop heading for Kiev. At this rate the capital might not last until Monday.

These munitions won't last forever. And there is always a good chance that western response will crush Ukrainian will to resist.

Precisely why this is happening. If Ukraine folds within a week not even serious sanctions might happen. The gamble is that the west will accept a quick win as a fait accompli. I thought a 'madman' act was put on display for better negotiation leverage. Instead he must have twisted many arms to get Russian army to go forward with it.