pmp10

The whole thing was hopelessly confused but Ukrainian intelligence stated that he worked for them and was no traitor. In all likelihood a covert operation went spectacularly wrong.

And who will provide the liberating armies in this case? With NATO drawing the line at soldier equipment I suppose this task falls to Moldavia? Them or someone worse. No country can fight up to 10 years of brutal irregular warfare and emerge a bastion of democracy and liberal values. War brutalizes people, this part of the world should be perfectly aware of that.

You only need to look at Syria and Afghanistan to understand the costs of insurgency. It's of course Ukrainian people choice to make, but it would take many years of fighting and guarantee plenty of death and destruction in not too-rich nation to begin with. And I'm pretty sure the Ukraine that could win an insurgency will have no place in the west. In the process of fighting it would become something scary, a country that no one would want around.

NATO officially rejects any idea of a no-fly zone. Was pretty much a given after refusal to provide aircraft but now it's official. Ukraine, like it or not, is returning to Russian SoI. Unless they will resort to insurgency to try drag Russians with them into ruin.

He could likely get that and recognition of Crimea already. But there is also the demand to demilitarize as well. Ukrainian morale is running a little too high after first fighting and Zelensky couldn't implement that even if he wanted to. Besides, the aim is very clear to do this again if Russia is displeased for whatever reason. Sure, but the money will eventually have to come from the average taxpayer. Unless we are heading for an insurgency/cold war scenario you simply cannot justify that sacrifice long term.

If we are talking oil then you know OPEC quotas limit the supply. And of course it was the cheapest supply in much of Europe, that is why it was bought and that is why sanctioning it would lead to economic pain.

Sure but wast majority is contracted long-term and increasing production will take years. There are good reasons why fossil fuel imports were excluded from sanctions, and that is even before political backsliding begins.

And backtracked already. I'm starting to wonder if people are trying to push things by leaking opinions of some officials.

Belorussians are on the move Okay, but you'd still at least want radar for command and control and I assume that is largely gone now. Then again, maybe NATO would provide that as part of intelligence.

Some 70 combat aircrafts are to be transferred to Ukraine. That's crazy, do they even have pilots for them let alone intact airfields?

He might have already. A massive fireball has just erupted during bombing of Kiev. Clearly Putin is done with hearts and minds.

He would escalate but there is plenty of non-nuclear options at his disposal. From cyber-attacks to turning off that gas-flow, we are a really long way from anything nuclear happening. And if the Russian troops are really held back they will unfortunately dispense with rules of engagement they were following so far.

Officially claimed by Russian MoD I believe. Chances are it is about as reliable as the Ukrainian one.

There really is no 'normal' to get back to anymore. Putin is past the point of backing down and sanctions will have to stay in place for a long time to come. And far more important is that he made some top European politicians look ridiculous.

Personally I loved the one where Russians were getting their tanks stolen by gypsies. I get that there is Ukrainian morale to consider and everyone loves to help, but the world is doing Ukrainians a disservice. There will be one rude awakening one day that no only are they being badly beaten but are also dying for a hopeless cause. That's how 'stab in the back' legends are born and cause issues for generations.

And Kiev has been encircled, or at least the city's Mayor claims so. That western aid is really unlikely to ever reach places where it's really needed.

Selective reporting and wishful thinking that results in misidentification. To be fair position of Mariupol is not really defensible. I'm sorry but is this allowed? I thought we were all armchair-experts only?

And first negotiations start. Not sure what the point is, Lukashenko can't refuse joining in at this point and Putin will demand almost complete surrender. Maybe they just want to deny them the propaganda opportunity that all talk offers were rejected?

Kharkiv is secure after all. Another case of recon element launching a probe attack that was reported as full scale assault.

Sure, and footage only shows Russian recon elements at this point but let's not pretend they need every single cellar to surrender before moving on.

Seems Kharkiv is about to fall if it didn't already. With Lukaszenka about to commit Belarussian troops this is not looking good for Ukraine.

I think Iran called it NATO caused. I'm sure there will be the usual Cuba/Venezuela and a few minor others taking Russian friendly stance. I don't know, at his early point he may not either. If the primary objective is no NATO involvement and demilitarization then there is no need to occupy anything. All that is necessary is to force the change of constitution, wreck any military equipment, impose arms inspectors and fly-overs. But I don't see how he can pull a 'denazification' without a months of man-hunt by loyal troops. Yeah, no. I just made more of them then others. I just got unhealthily obsessed, my prediction record is about that of a coin-toss.

There have been numerous reports of Russians using Ukrainian uniforms so at the very least it makes good 'psyops' sense as Zor would put it. For all we know it can be true. Maybe elements of Ukrainian army might have really defected and none was keen to publicly admit it. Maybe in confusion friendly fire has been taken to extreme and the dead labeled as Russians.

Interesting, might be geographical difference then. I guess we will see soon enough. We are nearing 48 hours now and shock and awe ought to be letting off now. I would expect resistance to either start hardening or collapsing at this point.

Funny because I didn't have this impression. Social media is full of fit military-age men running for the border and no Ukrainian men in my professional environment is rushing back either.