Coup or attempted coup in Turkey

[Bartimaeus]

It seems as though the coup has definitively failed at this point, for anyone still wondering.

[Drowsy Emperor]

I am dissappoint

 

But late last night when various public figures were supporting the government and even Obama said something to that effect I realized they had actually done the unthinkable, attempted a coup without securing outside support from the major powers.

 

It would never occur to me the army would actually try a genuine local revolt, without preparing the political foundations.

 

This is why they failed. Stuck without political support the whole thing crumbles before it can stabilize.

 

Failing to capture and kill Erdogan straight away was a mistake, failing to execute the top political figures while they had them at their mercy and allowing Erdogans supporters to get to the streets without many casualties - all too meek. That is not how things are done if you're not sure of the outcome.

 

Kudos to Zoraptor for seeing the big picture.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[Meshugger]

I wonder if this will be seen as the last breath of Kemalism in Turkey and the future now belong to those who wish it to be more like Iran (governmentally and culturally speaking). 

[obyknven]

I am dissappoint

I am not dissapoint. Erdogan anounce castration of Turkish army and we support him now

[Drowsy Emperor]

Well I guess every cloud has a silver lining. 

Edited July 16, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[213374U]

But late last night when various public figures were supporting the government and even Obama said something to that effect I realized they had actually done the unthinkable, attempted a coup without securing outside support from the major powers.

 

Obama & co. threw their support behind Erdoğan, but they weren't too quick to do it. From what I saw, only after it was plain that the coup was full of fail, did they come out and demand respect for 'constitutional order' and such.

 

I'm thinking if the coup had been successful, they would instead 'express deep concern for the recent events in Turkey' or some diplomatic rubbish along those lines, but little else.

 

Rule of thumb with coups d'état, if you can't present everyone, within and without, with a fait accompli, you'll end up before a firing squad.

 

Question is whether this will weaken Erdoğan's position in the long run, or strengthen him as his enemies within are defeated for good.

[Drowsy Emperor]

 

But late last night when various public figures were supporting the government and even Obama said something to that effect I realized they had actually done the unthinkable, attempted a coup without securing outside support from the major powers.

 

Obama & co. threw their support behind Erdoğan, but they weren't too quick to do it. From what I saw, only after it was plain that the coup was full of fail, did they come out and demand respect for 'constitutional order' and such.

 

I'm thinking if the coup had been successful, they would instead 'express deep concern for the recent events in Turkey' or some diplomatic rubbish along those lines, but little else.

 

Rule of thumb with coups d'état, if you can't present everyone, within and without, with a fait accompli, you'll end up before a firing squad.

 

Question is whether this will weaken Erdoğan's position in the long run, or strengthen him as his enemies within are defeated for good.

 

 

They were on the fence in the start, but the fact that no major power really supported the coup suggests that they were going to slog through this thing alone. And for that they needed to be a lot more vicious. CNN was practically shilling for Erdogan from the start, helping to relay his message in a key moment when he was cut off from everything. 

 

When I saw the videos of soldiers letting "protesters" climb on the tanks with open hatches it became plain they don't have the resolve to see this thing through.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[Fighter]

Well Erdogan does has strong support. Can't take that away from him.

 

Compare to Crimea where the government was taken by what was technically a foreign army:

[Drowsy Emperor]

Turkey has been a state for a  very long time, whereas Ukraine barely qualifies for the term.

[Fighter]

Just will be sad if this means further descent into islamism.

[obyknven]

Best ads of Turkish Army evar. Join to military forces lol.

 

[Meshugger]

 

I am dissappoint

I am not dissapoint. Erdogan anounce castration of Turkish army and we support him now

 

 

Sure, sure. But how do you curtial the rise of islamism in the region? Like or not, Kemalism brought stability whereas Erdogan's policies....not so much.

[obyknven]

 

 

I am dissappoint

I am not dissapoint. Erdogan anounce castration of Turkish army and we support him now

 

 

Sure, sure. But how do you curtial the rise of islamism in the region? Like or not, Kemalism brought stability whereas Erdogan's policies....not so much.

 

But Turkey is NATO member/EU future member. Not our problem          

[teknoman2]

Erdogan was helped into office by USA back in the day, but he had great plans for Turkey that did not coincide with US interests in the region so the relationship between them got sour. Lately there was talk about a probable coup incited by USA to topple Erdogan and replace him with a more submissive pawn so, considering how the current coup apparently had no strategic or tactical planning, it's probable that Erdogan staged a fake coup himself to boost his own popularity with the masses and find an excuse to thin the dissenters from the ranks of the army. 

[Meshugger]

 

 

 

I am dissappoint

I am not dissapoint. Erdogan anounce castration of Turkish army and we support him now

 

 

Sure, sure. But how do you curtial the rise of islamism in the region? Like or not, Kemalism brought stability whereas Erdogan's policies....not so much.

 

But Turkey is NATO member/EU future member. Not our problem          

 

 

For having an islamic NATO-member with nuclear warheads on your doorstep, you sure have an interesting definition on what is a problem or not. Or i have simply failed to understand russian humor once again.

 

Erdogan was helped into office by USA back in the day, but he had great plans for Turkey that did not coincide with US interests in the region so the relationship between them got sour. Lately there was talk about a probable coup incited by USA to topple Erdogan and replace him with a more submissive pawn so, considering how the current coup apparently had no strategic or tactical planning, it's probable that Erdogan staged a fake coup himself to boost his own popularity with the masses and find an excuse to thin the dissenters from the ranks of the army. 

 

If the aftermath goes into the memory-hole then you might be on to something.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Meshugger

[213374U]

Best ads of Turkish Army evar. Join to military forces lol.

 

They don't need ads, there is conscription in Turkey. I wouldn't expect frightened 20-somethings who may or may not have been threatened with disciplinary action to go along with this, to make for very good shock troops against their own population.

[Gfted1]

They sure are down with the belt whippings.

[Hassat Hunter]

Suprised how many people are surprised that the army didn't just gun down all civilians.

 

Did you really think that would happen? What do you think the international response HAD to be if that happened? If 5000+ died? I'm sure it would make it a little difficult for the EU/US to actually go "yay coup-people" as they want to do and more into the regions of "we should probably take that country from these animals".

 

 

Also the irony that most haters of Assad are now feeling so sad civilians didn't get shot. What is it, one or the other? You can't be EU-politian and just change your opinion on the spot.

[Fighter]

No. Shooting at the crowd would have been a much bigger disaster for them strategically. What they needed were supporters of their own and political allies.

 

As for Syria. There is no "good" outcome there anymore if either side wins. There is Assad and there are the jihadis. The latter might have been decent once, when they were protesters on the street, but they offer nothing but a Mad Max world anymore.

 

edit: Apparently 2700 turkish judges were fired. This list could not have been made in a few hours. It must have been prepared in advance and waiting for the right time.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Fighter

[pmp10]

Civilians certainly were shoot and there are even videos of tanks running over people in the streets.

And west got over shooting of civilians in Egypt fairly quickly so that wasn't really the problem.

Whatever force planned it simply couldn't secure the streets fast enough.

If they had so little support in the army and almost no popular support in the capital this was never going to get far.

[Drowsy Emperor]

The mistake was not getting important political figures and eliminating them fast. They rallied withing a few hours, which shouldn't really have been allowed to happen.

[Zoraptor]

Suprised how many people are surprised that the army didn't just gun down all civilians.

 

If you're going to go for a coup you've got to be prepared to be ruthless about it because you can bet the other side will be if you're not. That's what the Egyptian military did when deposing Morsi, and it worked. If you're not prepared to really go through with it then you're better off not doing it at all. And doing it requires, basically, both the will and a proper plan to decapitate the government both figuratively and if necessary, literally.

 

Also the irony that most haters of Assad are now feeling so sad civilians didn't get shot. What is it, one or the other? You can't be EU-politian and just change your opinion on the spot.

They're not necessarily the same people. Most foreign people want Erdogan gone whether or not they're pro Assad. And publicly at least the big anti Assad players all came out for Erdogan.

Edited July 16, 2016 by Zoraptor

[213374U]

edit: Apparently 2700 turkish judges were fired. This list could not have been made in a few hours. It must have been prepared in advance and waiting for the right time.

 

Yeah, I thought the same thing. The purges are proceeding with blinding speed. This was a military uprising, what's the excuse to summarily dismiss thousands of judges?

 

They are also considering bringing back the death penalty for participants in the coup. Looks like "democracy" has been preserved, alright.

 

I wouldn't want to be a Turk right now.

[Drowsy Emperor]

Well, as we say back home "pukovnik il' pokojnik", which in direct translation would be something like "colonel or corpse", meaning all or nothing. 

 

They didn't really go for broke and now they're at Erdogan's mercy. Along with a ton of people that are going to be swept away using the coup as an excuse.

[Fighter]

There are pictures far worse that are circulating than soldiers beaten with a belt... Gotta feel bad for soldiers that chose not to pull the trigger and got their heads kicked in.