US Elections 2016

[Tigranes]

Why is anyone actually trying to judge Trump by his policies? Do they think he will stick to them?

 

Fun exercise: politicians changing their minds because politicians v. Trump changing his mind because Trump, which is going to be worse?

[Elerond]

If Trump becomes president, then he becomes a politician and because of that fact he will change his mind in many things and eventually he will not even resemble person that was voted in the office. That is politics.

 

Although there is always Bernie, who seems to be immune for this politicians' occupational illness

[ShadySands]

He's not immune to it, just resistant

 

His stances on immigration and guns have moved a little but his main talking points have been solid

 

 

EDIT- I dunno if I'm the only one to watch the Lib debates but they have some good moments

Edited March 1, 2016 by ShadySands

[Zoraptor]

If that is what will give her popular support then I know even less of the US "average Joe" than I thought.

Pretty easy to adapt the famous Goering quote to illustrate why that is seen as being 'popular'. Get the press to demonise an enemy, label anyone who doesn't agree as weak or a terrorist sympathiser, then celebrate getting a 'bad guy' when he dies; it's the same everywhere but just a bit more extreme in the US. She was pretty obviously trying for a soundbite/ quote of the "we got him" type, she just stuffed it up and got moderately psychotic instead- small punishment compared to how her (and, to be fair, Dave and Nick's) decision impacted the people of Libya. End of the day all the Mad Dog of Tripoli stuff was done precisely to set the scene for nobody crying when he (or his grandchildren) died by labelling him as a rabid animal that has to be put down for the greater good (the greater good).

 

Essentially though, the biggest flaw most US politicians see in the current climate is that of appearing 'weak'; hence the popularity of the Tea Party a few years ago going after anyone on their own side who'd compromise with Obama, and to a large extent Trump's current popularity as well. That goes extra for Clinton, since she's female some people will assume she's 'weak'.

[ShadySands]

Star Trek is always the answer

Edited March 2, 2016 by ShadySands

[Drowsy Emperor]

 

If that is what will give her popular support then I know even less of the US "average Joe" than I thought.

Pretty easy to adapt the famous Goering quote to illustrate why that is seen as being 'popular'. Get the press to demonise an enemy, label anyone who doesn't agree as weak or a terrorist sympathiser, then celebrate getting a 'bad guy' when he dies; it's the same everywhere but just a bit more extreme in the US. She was pretty obviously trying for a soundbite/ quote of the "we got him" type, she just stuffed it up and got moderately psychotic instead- small punishment compared to how her (and, to be fair, Dave and Nick's) decision impacted the people of Libya. End of the day all the Mad Dog of Tripoli stuff was done precisely to set the scene for nobody crying when he (or his grandchildren) died by labelling him as a rabid animal that has to be put down for the greater good (the greater good).

 

Essentially though, the biggest flaw most US politicians see in the current climate is that of appearing 'weak'; hence the popularity of the Tea Party a few years ago going after anyone on their own side who'd compromise with Obama, and to a large extent Trump's current popularity as well. That goes extra for Clinton, since she's female some people will assume she's 'weak'.

 

 

Makes sense

[Volourn]

That woman in the pic seems to be proud that the Mid east is full of Muslims murdering Muslims for being the 'wrong' kind of Muslim.  BRILLIANT.

 

 

Understand. THAT.

 

That won't happen even if  that punk Trump wins.

 

Understand THAT.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Volourn

[Hiro Protagonist]

I think it's a brilliant move the Republicans playing the Trump card.

 

[Malcador]

Trump extolling the virtues of Qatar and other ME places for their infrastructure. Hah

[ShadySands]

Caucus results for my precinct that don't matter

 

Sanders 98

Clinton 23

[ktchong]

My first choice is Bernie Sanders, but he seems to be done. 

 

I will not vote for Hillary Clinton. 

 

My second choice: Donald Trump. If you look through the "noises", (i.e., his supposedly "offensive" positions on illegal immigrants and Muslims - and neither concerns me,) his other positions are actually not so bad and even admirable:

 

 

And frankly: illegal immigrants really do not have the right to be here, and I do not like Muslims anyway.

Edited March 2, 2016 by ktchong

[Darkpriest]

So how much time left b3fore Trump gets into the whie house?

[Elerond]

Prediction after super Tuesday seems to be same as in going in it

 

Clinton and Trump will be the party nominees and Clinton will win general election.

Only interesting thing that I see in predictions is that Clinton is weaker of two democratic candidates when it comes to winning general election and Trump is GOP's weakest candidate in general election.

Edited March 2, 2016 by Elerond

[ktchong]

Prediction after super Tuesday seems to be same as in going in it

 

Clinton and Trump will be the party nominees and Clinton will win general election.

Only interesting thing that I see in predictions is that Clinton is weaker of two democratic candidates when it comes to winning general election and Trump is GOP's weakest candidate in general election.

 

It is like a paper-rock-scissor.

 

Hillary beats Bernie.

Bernie beats Trump.

And Trump beats Hillary.

 

References:

 

• Currnt Affairs: Unless the Democrats Run Sanders, A Trump Nomination Means a Trump Presidency - Feb 23, 2016

 

• Forbes: Why Hillary Clinton Can't Win In 2016 - Feb 19, 2016

 

• Salon: Hillary Clinton just can’t win: Democrats need to accept that only Bernie Sanders can defeat the GOP - Feb 19, 2016

 

 

Here are the highlights of how the Clinton vs Trump General Election will play out:

 

Trump’s political dominance is highly dependent on his idiosyncratic, audacious method of campaigning. He deals almost entirely in amusing, outrageous, below-the-belt personal attacks...

 

This campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trump’s dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, Chinagate, Travelgate, the missing law firm records, Jeffrey Epstein, Kissinger, Marc Rich, Haiti, Clinton Foundation tax errors, Clinton Foundation conflicts of interest, “We were broke when we left the White House,” Goldman Sachs… There is enough material in Hillary Clinton’s background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.

 

Trump will capitalize on his reputation as a truth-teller, and be vicious about both Clinton’s sudden changes of position (e.g. the switch on gay marriage, plus the affected economic populism of her run against Sanders) and her perceived dishonesty. One can already imagine the monologue:

 

“She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”

 

Where does she even begin to respond to this? Some of it’s true, some of it isn’t, but the more she tries to defensively parse it (“There’s been no suggestion I’m going to be indicted! And I didn’t say I usually tried to tell the truth, I said I always tried and usually succeeded”) the deeper she sinks into the hole.

 

Trump will bob, weave, jab, and hook. He won’t let up. And because Clinton actually has lied, and actually did vote for the Iraq War, and actually is hyper-cosy with Wall Street, and actually does change her positions based on expediency, all she can do is issue further implausible denials, which will further embolden Trump. Nor does she have a single offensive weapon at her disposal, since every legitimate criticism of Trump’s background (inconsistent political positions, shady financial dealings, pattern of deception) is equally applicable to Clinton, and he knows how to make such things slide off him, whereas she does not.

 

 

 

BTW, Hillary Clinton is currently being investigated by the FBI, not over her email but over some potentially illegal financial contributions received by her Clinton Foundation.   There is a good chance that Hillary Clinton will face a federal indictment.  If that happens, it will be a disaster for the Democratic Party. 

Edited March 2, 2016 by ktchong

[ktchong]

Another thing:  All Hillary  Clinton has talked about is what she can do for women, women, women - to the extent that men, Democratic men, are being turned off by her campaign.  And with all her women talk, she has not been able to completely secure female votes, (i.e., young women favor Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton.)  Hillary currently has a huge gender gap problem: a lot of men refuse to vote for her.  And it is not being discussed in the media or remedied by her campaign.

 

 

Resource:

 

National Journal: Hillary Clinton’s Problem With Men

 

The Washington Times: Hillary Clinton’s male-voter problem — and 3 other remarkable 2016 stats

 

Townhall: Hillary’s Problems With Male Voters Further Highlights Why She’s An Awful Candidate

 

Salon: The truth about Hillary Clinton’s “problem” with women: In reality, men in New Hampshire also rejected her in droves and backed Bernie

 

 

Hillary has been winning the primaries for one and only one reasons: black votes.  Black people love the Clintons.  But guess what?  Blacks are still a minority and won't be able to carry Hillary in the general election.  I think Hillary is gonna get slaughtered in the general election.  So, everyone should get prepared for the era of President Trump.

 

I do not think Donald Trump will actually build a wall, (and a wall will not keep out the illegals anyway.)  However, what he will do is to make lives so miserable and hostile to illegal immigrants that they will be forced to pack and leave America, (i.e., like what illegal immigrants in Arizona did after the state had started persecuted them- they packed up, left and fled to other states like California.)  He won't be able to ban Muslims in America, but he will also make lives miserable and hostile to Muslims.  Frankly, either scenario does not affect me.  Donald Trump does not like Asians, but he is not specifically targeting us either.   So his "racism" or "bigotry" is not my problem, (and he is running on a nativist campaign.)

 

I do not think  illegal immigrants (the "Dreamers" being the exceptions) should be allowed to stay.  I have sympathy for the "Dreamers" - they were brought into the country as children, and this is the country they grew up in and the only country they ever know.  It was not their choice to become illegal immigrant, so I have no problem with allowing them to become US citizens.   My problem with Obama's DREAM Act is that if we allow them to become citizens, then their parents - who illegally entered the country as adults and brought their children with them - those parents will also be able to become US citizens through the children.  That I have a YUGE problem with.   And this whole "what about the family?" argument keep being raised by Latinos offends me.  Maybe in Hispanic cultures and nations, families are so important that people can break laws and get away because they have to keep the families together.  In America, however, if a father or mother has young children, and he/she breaks a law, we still arrest and prosecute them, and put them in prison.  Breaking up their family is irrelevant.  Having a family does not give anyone the license to break laws.  You can't demand us to change/ignore our immigration laws because you want to keep your lawbreaking families together.

 

So unless we have some sort of laws the specifically say, okay, the Dreamers (who were brought into the country as children) will be granted a pathway to citizenship BUT not their parents, then I can't support any immigration reform.  And obviously you guys already know I do not like Muslims.  Which is why I have no problem voting for Donald Trump if Bernie Sanders is not running in the general election.

Edited March 2, 2016 by ktchong

[Elerond]

In poll averages:

Clinton vs Trump: Clinton wins with 3% 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 

Cruz vs Clinton: Cruz wins with 1.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

 

Clinton vs Rubio: Rubio wins with 5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

 

Clinton vs Kasich: Kasich wins with 7.4%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_clinton-5162.html

 

Clinton vs Carson: Clinton wins with 1.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_carson_vs_clinton-5119.html

 

Sanders vs Trump: Sanders wins with 8%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

 

Sanders vs Cruz: Sanders wins with 9.7%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_sanders-5742.html

 

Sanders vs Rubio: Sanders wins with 3.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_sanders-5564.html

 

Sanders vs Kasich: Sanders wins with 0.5%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_kasich_vs_sanders-5817.html

 

Sanders vs Casrson:Sanders wins with 1.3%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_carson_vs_sanders-5677.html

 

Match ups against Trumps are polled most and which usually gives highest prediction accuracy about winner. But of course general election has not yet even started so poll prediction accuracy is very in this point of the time. 

 

Clinton and Trump both suffer from fact that even within their own parties there are people that will not vote them in any circumstances, which rise possibility of unpredicted result in certain parts of country very high. It also means that third party candidates have high chance to have quite high support if they are Dem and GOP nominees.

 

Although American media seems to want Trump to become nominee (at least) as amount of articles written about him is mind staggering compared to other candidates. Visibility brings votes regardless of nature of that visibility. 

[Bryy]

It's disgusting that Trump is even gonna be the Republican Nominee. Man is a horror story. 

[Gorth]

I watched 10 minutes of one of those debates featuring Trump once, must have been about a month ago?

 

Not sure if it was any better or worse than those reality shows that TV is full of these days.

 

I don't believe he'll win the general election (the US would probably enter a decade of isolation then, as much of the rest of the world would regard him as a pariah). He could still learn a lesson or two from Italy's ex-premier Berlusconi. Regardless of any qualitifications for the position he hung unto the post for a long time because he wasn't just a "media favourite", he OWNED the media and that made for very one sided election campaigns.

 

As an outsider with little knowledge of the candidates other than the popular news channels, it looks like our poor American cousins are fubar regardless of who wins at the end of the year

[Hiro Protagonist]

I pray every day Trump will win.

[ktchong]

Anyone but Hillary.

 

 

 

Which is why I will vote for Trump.  Unless Bern runs in the general election.

Edited March 2, 2016 by ktchong

[ktchong]

[Elerond]

I pray every day Trump will win.

 

I would say that Trump, Kasich and Sanders would be ideal winners. Cruz and Rubio are decent choices and Clinton is probably worse.

 

Trump promises to destroy USA's ability to compete on global market to ensure USA's safety against illegal immigrants from Mexico and Muslims. I predict that his presidency would boost European economy greatly, even if UK closes it borders and exits EU.

 

Kasich promises to give military assistance for Finland even if Finland is not part of Nato, which is always nice and as president he actually would be somewhat capable to keep that promise.

 

Sanders social reform would mean that USA needs to focus their own country instead of meddling affairs of other countries. Also such social reform will give great opportunity for  European companies steal market shares from American companies that need to focus their home market.

 

Cruz, seems to be very similar to GWB, which was also excellent president for Europe as his poor foreign policies made rest of world form tighter ties just to balance against those policies. His reign would had given excellent economical boost for Europe if there had not been those big banks in USA that caused economical crash (coincidence??)

 

Rubio seem to be weaker version of Cruz, so not optimal candidate, but I believe that he and GOP will do what is good for Europe like they have done in past.

 

 

This analyses aren't meant to be take seriously or reflect reality. :)

[Meshugger]

 

Here are the highlights of how the Clinton vs Trump General Election will play out:

 

Trump’s political dominance is highly dependent on his idiosyncratic, audacious method of campaigning. He deals almost entirely in amusing, outrageous, below-the-belt personal attacks...

 

This campaigning style makes Hillary Clinton Donald Trump’s dream opponent. She gives him an endless amount to work with. The emails, Benghazi, Whitewater, Iraq, the Lewinsky scandal, Chinagate, Travelgate, the missing law firm records, Jeffrey Epstein, Kissinger, Marc Rich, Haiti, Clinton Foundation tax errors, Clinton Foundation conflicts of interest, “We were broke when we left the White House,” Goldman Sachs… There is enough material in Hillary Clinton’s background for Donald Trump to run with six times over.

 

Trump will capitalize on his reputation as a truth-teller, and be vicious about both Clinton’s sudden changes of position (e.g. the switch on gay marriage, plus the affected economic populism of her run against Sanders) and her perceived dishonesty. One can already imagine the monologue:

 

“She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”

 

Where does she even begin to respond to this? Some of it’s true, some of it isn’t, but the more she tries to defensively parse it (“There’s been no suggestion I’m going to be indicted! And I didn’t say I usually tried to tell the truth, I said I always tried and usually succeeded”) the deeper she sinks into the hole.

 

Trump will bob, weave, jab, and hook. He won’t let up. And because Clinton actually has lied, and actually did vote for the Iraq War, and actually is hyper-cosy with Wall Street, and actually does change her positions based on expediency, all she can do is issue further implausible denials, which will further embolden Trump. Nor does she have a single offensive weapon at her disposal, since every legitimate criticism of Trump’s background (inconsistent political positions, shady financial dealings, pattern of deception) is equally applicable to Clinton, and he knows how to make such things slide off him, whereas she does not.

 

 

 

That would be the most entertaining thing ever. No mr. nice guy, no lets stick to the "issues". No, instead a complete assault on Clinton and everything vile that she represents. I want the curtain teared down, I want the overton window shifted, I want to see them squirm.

 

To even mention that her husband rode Epstein's "Lolita Express" all while she was "campaigning for women" would be priceless.

[Hiro Protagonist]

I was just thinking what has Obama achieved in the last 8 years? Something that really stands out. I can't think of anything. Sure he may have attended an opening for something, or a charity. Nothing really memorable sticks out to me. He's been pretty boring imo. And when I think of GWB, man I could write pages. This is why I want Trump to win. The controversy, the gaffes, the Trumpisms. Exciting times!

[Barothmuk]

“She lies so much. Everything she says is a lie. I’ve never seen someone who lies so much in my life. Let me tell you three lies she’s told. She made up a story about how she was ducking sniper fire! There was no sniper fire. She made it up! How do you forget a thing like that? She said she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary, the guy who climbed Mount Everest. He hadn’t even climbed it when she was born! Total lie! She lied about the emails, of course, as we all know, and is probably going to be indicted. You know she said there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq! It was a lie! Thousands of American soldiers are dead because of her. Not only does she lie, her lies kill people. That’s four lies, I said I’d give you three. You can’t even count them. You want to go on PolitiFact, see how many lies she has? It takes you an hour to read them all! In fact, they ask her, she doesn’t even say she hasn’t lied. They asked her straight up, she says she usually tries to tell the truth! Ooooh, she tries! Come on! This is a person, every single word out of her mouth is a lie. Nobody trusts her. Check the polls, nobody trusts her. Yuge liar.”

That was actually a really good Trump impression.