European Refugee Crisis : Part 2

[Elerond]

 

In this hard economic times it is good to be number one in something, maybe...

 

 

Edit: Source http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7203832/3-04032016-AP-EN.pdf/790eba01-381c-4163-bcd2-a54959b99ed6

Edited March 4, 2016 by Elerond

[Drowsy Emperor]

They'll give up when they realize what the weather is like

[Meshugger]

They'll give up when they realize what the weather is like

 

Thousands already have.

 

But being number #1 at holding your door open is quite the achivement though. Much better than those hungarians, that's for sure.

[Drowsy Emperor]

220000 in Sweden, in a country of 10 million. 2.2% population shift in just 2 years. Settling an entire middle eastern city.

 

Gawd that country is insane..

Edited March 4, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[BruceVC]

 

In this hard economic times it is good to be number one in something, maybe...

 

 

Edit: Source http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7203832/3-04032016-AP-EN.pdf/790eba01-381c-4163-bcd2-a54959b99ed6

Yes but the initial number is very low, so the figure 822 % may seem excessive but not if you consider there were only 3490 immigrants in 2014 and now there are 32150

 

Its not a large number?

[Meshugger]

 

 

In this hard economic times it is good to be number one in something, maybe...

 

 

Edit: Source http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7203832/3-04032016-AP-EN.pdf/790eba01-381c-4163-bcd2-a54959b99ed6

Yes but the initial number is very low, so the figure 822 % may seem excessive but not if you consider there were only 3490 immigrants in 2014 and now there are 32150

 

Its not a large number?

 

 

If the annual growth off the native population is about 19-20k, which is the finnish one based of statistics from 2000-2010, then an annual immigration 32k people, where over 70% of them are middle eastern muslim men in fighting age, then you have a catastrophy in the making.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Meshugger

[Elerond]

 

 

In this hard economic times it is good to be number one in something, maybe...

 

 

Edit: Source http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7203832/3-04032016-AP-EN.pdf/790eba01-381c-4163-bcd2-a54959b99ed6

Yes but the initial number is very low, so the figure 822 % may seem excessive but not if you consider there were only 3490 immigrants in 2014 and now there are 32150

 

Its not a large number?

 

 

It depends how you look that number.

 

For example UK which has 12 times of Finland's population took only 6k more than Finland. And France that also has twelve time population of Finland took only bit over twice that Finland which seems to already case quite lot problems to them.  And when adjust first time asylum applicants to population, then even Germany took less people than Finland. Only Hungary, Sweden and Austria have taken more people adjusted to population than Finland.

 

So 32k isn't that big number put its more than population in most of Finland's cities.

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

In this hard economic times it is good to be number one in something, maybe...

 

 

Edit: Source http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7203832/3-04032016-AP-EN.pdf/790eba01-381c-4163-bcd2-a54959b99ed6

Yes but the initial number is very low, so the figure 822 % may seem excessive but not if you consider there were only 3490 immigrants in 2014 and now there are 32150

 

Its not a large number?

 

 

It depends how you look that number.

 

For example UK which has 12 times of Finland's population took only 6k more than Finland. And France that also has twelve time population of Finland took only bit over twice that Finland which seems to already case quite lot problems to them.  And when adjust first time asylum applicants to population, then even Germany took less people than Finland. Only Hungary, Sweden and Austria have taken more people adjusted to population than Finland.

 

So 32k isn't that big number put its more than population in most of Finland's cities.

 

Fair enough, I can see the concern both you and Meshugger have..its valid but only if the Finnish government continues to allow 30K of refugees into Finland every year..but it wont.

 

I think there will be far less if any refugees coming into Finland in the future 

[Elerond]

 

 

 

 

In this hard economic times it is good to be number one in something, maybe...

 

 

Edit: Source http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7203832/3-04032016-AP-EN.pdf/790eba01-381c-4163-bcd2-a54959b99ed6

Yes but the initial number is very low, so the figure 822 % may seem excessive but not if you consider there were only 3490 immigrants in 2014 and now there are 32150

 

Its not a large number?

 

 

It depends how you look that number.

 

For example UK which has 12 times of Finland's population took only 6k more than Finland. And France that also has twelve time population of Finland took only bit over twice that Finland which seems to already case quite lot problems to them.  And when adjust first time asylum applicants to population, then even Germany took less people than Finland. Only Hungary, Sweden and Austria have taken more people adjusted to population than Finland.

 

So 32k isn't that big number put its more than population in most of Finland's cities.

 

Fair enough, I can see the concern both you and Meshugger have..its valid but only if the Finnish government continues to allow 30K of refugees into Finland every year..but it wont.

 

I think there will be far less if any refugees coming into Finland in the future 

 

 

Although this year prediction is that number of refugees will be much higher than last year.  And it isn't just question about allowing them to come, but what is number that forces us to break international conventions and go back what we have said to be fundamental human rights. Also  EU's framework agreements will come under question and which can lead results like disintegration whole union, if we can't find balance in crisis like this. 

[Drowsy Emperor]

Countries like Turkey etc. can keep on piling the immigrants for as long as they like.

All any Afghani or whatever has to do is rip up his passport once he crosses into the EU and then good luck guessing if he's a refugee or an economic migrant.

 

This process could last for years.

 

In fact, it will probably last for as long as it can be done with a high probability of success. 

 

Ergo, the states of Europe should close their borders before Germany and Sweden ruin everyone else.

Edited March 4, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[Elerond]

Although Sweden and Germany have started to close their boarders, even though that goes against those EU framework agreements that I was talking about. Also Greece has problems because others have closed borders for it. If there isn't soon comprehensive solution that all member states will follow, EU will have quite lot of problems to keep itself working.

[Drowsy Emperor]

That's something that the media is saying but its not supported by reality. Borders are still open for EU passport holders and the countries with schengen agreement, trade (the key thing around which EU integration revolved) is still flowing. Nothing of substance has changed. Controlling the flow of people across borders is not sufficient reason for EU "disintegration".

Edited March 4, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[Elerond]

That's something that the media is saying but its not supported by reality. Borders are still open for EU passport holders and the countries with schengen agreement, trade (the key thing around which EU integration revolved) is still flowing. Nothing of substance has changed. Controlling the flow of people across borders is not sufficient reason for EU "disintegration".

 

Border control is issue to countries that have lots of non-registered refugees like for example, how Greece feels isolated and Austria has expressed their displeasure towards Germany's plans to block refugees on border. Also France didn't like Belgium's decision to control their border. If this countries can't form some sort agreement how border control in EU will work it will only strengthen anti-EU parties in said countries which will lead disintegration of EU. It as single would not be enough, but there is lots issues which EU member states currently have different opinions and have hard time to come up solution that all would be agree. We can see clear examples for this in how Greece feels that it is closed of from rest of EU and how UK (although border control issue has little do with UK's desires to leave as it isn't part of Schengen area) wants to leave from EU.

[BruceVC]

 

That's something that the media is saying but its not supported by reality. Borders are still open for EU passport holders and the countries with schengen agreement, trade (the key thing around which EU integration revolved) is still flowing. Nothing of substance has changed. Controlling the flow of people across borders is not sufficient reason for EU "disintegration".

 

Border control is issue to countries that have lots of non-registered refugees like for example, how Greece feels isolated and Austria has expressed their displeasure towards Germany's plans to block refugees on border. Also France didn't like Belgium's decision to control their border. If this countries can't form some sort agreement how border control in EU will work it will only strengthen anti-EU parties in said countries which will lead disintegration of EU. It as single would not be enough, but there is lots issues which EU member states currently have different opinions and have hard time to come up solution that all would be agree. We can see clear examples for this in how Greece feels that it is closed of from rest of EU and how UK (although border control issue has little do with UK's desires to leave as it isn't part of Schengen area) wants to leave from EU.

 

No...no ...no 

 

 

Elerond please, stop thinking the EU is going to disintegrate

 

Its not, border controls and refugees are not enough to end the EU. The main advantage of the EU are the economic advantages, the reduced trade tariffs and ease of countries trading within the EU borders. The EU has survived the Cold War, the rise of Fascism and numerous real economic crisis's...and it has endured

 

Yet you guys think somehow some weak, impoverished, disillusioned and landless people who come from war torn countries where there are no functional governments is going to somehow lead to the end of the prestigious and   relevant EU? 

 

Greece due to  austerity was the most likely country to leave the EU, under Tsipras and all the " harsh" conditions of austerity they could have voted to leave...and guess what? They didn't even leave the EU. So I don't see any real evidence except for right-wing rhetoric that countries " will be leaving the EU due to borders and refugees" 

 

Its hyperbole and demagoguery and I encourage all  people in the EU to ignore it, the EU will persevere ...the EU will survive this refugee crisis I guarantee you   

[HoonDing]

you know nothing Jon Snow

[Tigranes]

How is the Cold War something to "survive" for the EU, which wasn't created until 1993, and whose precedent forms were created as a direct response to World War II? You're basically saying 3+2 = Pasta. 

[kgambit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI 

[Zoraptor]

That's something that the media is saying but its not supported by reality. Borders are still open for EU passport holders and the countries with schengen agreement, trade (the key thing around which EU integration revolved) is still flowing. Nothing of substance has changed. Controlling the flow of people across borders is not sufficient reason for EU "disintegration".

 

For most countries borders are a symptom more than anything. For some (Greece) it would approach an almost existential problem if the multi multi hundreds of thousands of refugees that have transited Greece stay there- they simply don't have the money and have problems with geography as the vast majority of refugees arrive on small islands with low populations and infrastructure which are also important for tourism. But for most it's a symptom of how the theoretically fair and equal EU with collective responsibility etc isn't, really. EU is supposed to be an inevitable, irreversible march to more integration; practically that has hit some snags and the inevitable and irreversible bits are looking more evitable and reversible. It may be true that nothing of substance has changed- personally I'd disagree since things clearly have changed since Merkel's "Wilkommen alles" last summer- but the intangibles of being big E European as opposed to or in addition to being German/ French/ British/ Hungarian etc should not be underestimated. The Euro crisis, UK referendum, existing opt outs for Denmark and the UK and the refugee crisis damage the prestige of the EU as an existing institution and do even more harm to the dream of a 'United States of Europe'.

 

Essentially, the end game for the EU is for there to literally be no borders between the countries. Re-establishing them, even in a manner which still allows trade and free movement of citizens is a retrograde step.

[BruceVC]

How is the Cold War something to "survive" for the EU, which wasn't created until 1993, and whose precedent forms were created as a direct response to World War II? You're basically saying 3+2 = Pasta. 

The ideology is what matters and yes the European countries ( who are mostly the EU now )  along with other Western countries did win\survive  the Cold War

 

Western Ideology = Democracies, respect for human rights, free press, respect for rule of law and free markets to drive the economy amongst other things 

 

And the EU is an excellent example of Western ideology and it is a success 

Edited March 5, 2016 by BruceVC

[Elerond]

Bruce: I think you suffer from same blindness as many of politician. You being South African it is understandable as domestic policy of EU isn't something that would be easy or interesting you to follow. Same can't said about our politician but they seem to be similarly obvious of issues.

 

So lets look this issues bit:

In past 6 years anti-EU parties have gained lot of popularity in EU member states. They haven't just been voted in parliaments but they are in lots of governments. Like here in Finland True Finns/Finns Party, which has campaigned against EU from its formation in 1995 (during referendum about joining in EU ), forms now third of the our government and also Centre Party which is leading party in our government is full of anti EU people. Some of them even formed new anti EU and anti Euro party which only purpose is get new referendum about Finland's memberships in EU and EMU. And Finland is not only member state where anti-EU parties and people have become popular. In UK for example current prime minister's party is full of anti-EU members, some even give open support for Brexit.

 

And those boarder closures work well for this anti EU parties. Greece for example, EU forced them in heavy austerity methods, say they need to cut public spending and so on and so forth. Now EU criticizes them because they don't have ability control refugee movement through their country, and criticize them for doing poor job preventing refugees dying in the sea. But there has been quite little enthusiasm to help Greece in current crisis instead other members states threaten to remove Greece privileges in EU if they don't get their border control to work. Golden Dawn (anti-Eu, which many also say to be neo-nazi and fascist party) has already gained popularity in Greece and you can be sure that they will gain more popularity if people of Greece feel that other EU member states have abandoned them.

 

In Austria Freedom Party (anti EU) has gained popularity and you can be sure that they will use refugee situation to gain more support. They tell that Merkel invites refugees to Germany and then closes Germany's borders and Austria needs to take care of these Merkel's guests, see how EU don't work. 

 

In France anti-EU party National Front has gained popularity and refugee crisis has given them lots of new support and they will most likely to use Belgium's decision to close borders as ammunition. Like for example see Belgium wasn't interested to control their borders when terrorist brought weapons to France to kill our citizens, but now they are interested to control their borders when it is about their interests.

 

When you add this lots of other problems that there are currently in EU and how there is difficulties to find common goals that EU should aim towards you can see how there disintegration of EU becomes more and more likely outcome if our politician don't soon take their head from sand and start to again see EU as union where member states need to cooperate and support each other. And if there is no willingness to do so we need to let EU go rather orderly fashion as possible and maybe build new union that is more what people now want instead of trying to force old dream to something that it isn't.

[BruceVC]

Bruce: I think you suffer from same blindness as many of politician. You being South African it is understandable as domestic policy of EU isn't something that would be easy or interesting you to follow. Same can't said about our politician but they seem to be similarly obvious of issues.

 

So lets look this issues bit:

In past 6 years anti-EU parties have gained lot of popularity in EU member states. They haven't just been voted in parliaments but they are in lots of governments. Like here in Finland True Finns/Finns Party, which has campaigned against EU from its formation in 1995 (during referendum about joining in EU ), forms now third of the our government and also Centre Party which is leading party in our government is full of anti EU people. Some of them even formed new anti EU and anti Euro party which only purpose is get new referendum about Finland's memberships in EU and EMU. And Finland is not only member state where anti-EU parties and people have become popular. In UK for example current prime minister's party is full of anti-EU members, some even give open support for Brexit.

 

And those boarder closures work well for this anti EU parties. Greece for example, EU forced them in heavy austerity methods, say they need to cut public spending and so on and so forth. Now EU criticizes them because they don't have ability control refugee movement through their country, and criticize them for doing poor job preventing refugees dying in the sea. But there has been quite little enthusiasm to help Greece in current crisis instead other members states threaten to remove Greece privileges in EU if they don't get their border control to work. Golden Dawn (anti-Eu, which many also say to be neo-nazi and fascist party) has already gained popularity in Greece and you can be sure that they will gain more popularity if people of Greece feel that other EU member states have abandoned them.

 

In Austria Freedom Party (anti EU) has gained popularity and you can be sure that they will use refugee situation to gain more support. They tell that Merkel invites refugees to Germany and then closes Germany's borders and Austria needs to take care of these Merkel's guests, see how EU don't work. 

 

In France anti-EU party National Front has gained popularity and refugee crisis has given them lots of new support and they will most likely to use Belgium's decision to close borders as ammunition. Like for example see Belgium wasn't interested to control their borders when terrorist brought weapons to France to kill our citizens, but now they are interested to control their borders when it is about their interests.

 

When you add this lots of other problems that there are currently in EU and how there is difficulties to find common goals that EU should aim towards you can see how there disintegration of EU becomes more and more likely outcome if our politician don't soon take their head from sand and start to again see EU as union where member states need to cooperate and support each other. And if there is no willingness to do so we need to let EU go rather orderly fashion as possible and maybe build new union that is more what people now want instead of trying to force old dream to something that it isn't.

This is a very good post, its reasonable and convincing on resonates with me on some levels, I need time to consider what you say but once again a very good post 

 

But let me ask you two questions 

 

• Do you want the EU to disintegrate and if so what would be the  future ...as you mention do you suggest a new EU? What criteria and laws would bind it together... 
• If you want the EU to survive what would your immediate or long term changes to the EU be  that you feel the EU has to implement to sustain itself..you say things like " member states need to cooperate and support each other" but thats a little unclear as its not specific enough 

[Elerond]

 

Bruce: I think you suffer from same blindness as many of politician. You being South African it is understandable as domestic policy of EU isn't something that would be easy or interesting you to follow. Same can't said about our politician but they seem to be similarly obvious of issues.

 

So lets look this issues bit:

In past 6 years anti-EU parties have gained lot of popularity in EU member states. They haven't just been voted in parliaments but they are in lots of governments. Like here in Finland True Finns/Finns Party, which has campaigned against EU from its formation in 1995 (during referendum about joining in EU ), forms now third of the our government and also Centre Party which is leading party in our government is full of anti EU people. Some of them even formed new anti EU and anti Euro party which only purpose is get new referendum about Finland's memberships in EU and EMU. And Finland is not only member state where anti-EU parties and people have become popular. In UK for example current prime minister's party is full of anti-EU members, some even give open support for Brexit.

 

And those boarder closures work well for this anti EU parties. Greece for example, EU forced them in heavy austerity methods, say they need to cut public spending and so on and so forth. Now EU criticizes them because they don't have ability control refugee movement through their country, and criticize them for doing poor job preventing refugees dying in the sea. But there has been quite little enthusiasm to help Greece in current crisis instead other members states threaten to remove Greece privileges in EU if they don't get their border control to work. Golden Dawn (anti-Eu, which many also say to be neo-nazi and fascist party) has already gained popularity in Greece and you can be sure that they will gain more popularity if people of Greece feel that other EU member states have abandoned them.

 

In Austria Freedom Party (anti EU) has gained popularity and you can be sure that they will use refugee situation to gain more support. They tell that Merkel invites refugees to Germany and then closes Germany's borders and Austria needs to take care of these Merkel's guests, see how EU don't work. 

 

In France anti-EU party National Front has gained popularity and refugee crisis has given them lots of new support and they will most likely to use Belgium's decision to close borders as ammunition. Like for example see Belgium wasn't interested to control their borders when terrorist brought weapons to France to kill our citizens, but now they are interested to control their borders when it is about their interests.

 

When you add this lots of other problems that there are currently in EU and how there is difficulties to find common goals that EU should aim towards you can see how there disintegration of EU becomes more and more likely outcome if our politician don't soon take their head from sand and start to again see EU as union where member states need to cooperate and support each other. And if there is no willingness to do so we need to let EU go rather orderly fashion as possible and maybe build new union that is more what people now want instead of trying to force old dream to something that it isn't.

This is a very good post, its reasonable and convincing on resonates with me on some levels, I need time to consider what you say but once again a very good post 

 

But let me ask you two questions 

 

• Do you want the EU to disintegrate and if so what would be the  future ...as you mention do you suggest a new EU? What criteria and laws would bind it together... 
• If you want the EU to survive what would your immediate or long term changes to the EU be  that you feel the EU has to implement to sustain itself..you say things like " member states need to cooperate and support each other" but thats a little unclear as its not specific enough 

 

 

I would like to see EU work. 

 

I would like to see such cooperation as creating clear rules how EU as whole handles refugees and they need to be fair and balanced. We should ensure that no country left alone or or drowned by the problem. There needs to be clear and agreed rules how refugees are divided between countries, how those that don't get asylum are removed from EU. And it must be absolutely sure that registering and controlling refugees could cause problems for country as it can do now. Also EU as whole need to be in charge of refugee issues, like returning them to their home countries, providing shelters etc.. For example so that EU strikes deals with countries like Iraq and Somalia how their citizen can be returned instead of every member country making such deals in bilateral negotiations. Also I would recommend that EU creates refugee fund that pays refugee shelters, returning the rejected applicants, etc. Also EU need institution which job is to ensure that refugees are divided evenly all around EU. Also I would like to see EU institution and court that handles all the asylum applications in EU, because if their applications are accepted they are free to move everywhere in EU so it would be nice if there was uniform rules and institution which decides such things. Of course this are ideas that would mean that EU integrates more and such ideas aren't that popular these days.

 

And things not related to refugee crisis.

 

I would like to see EU finally to abolish mobile phone roaming charges. So that free movement is actually feasible in EU. (This just need cooperation)

 

Also I would like see better economical support systems where member states that have problems because of asynchronous economical issues could get help and ensure that economical bend during crisis is as small as possible and economical crisis is as short as possible. So I would like to better investment and recovery fund systems that can react to problems that single member state face. Especially ECB needs methods how it can give economical support for states which economical growth/decline differs from other Euro countries. 

 

Also there needs to be better cooperation how taxes are paid over borders how assistances/pensions etc. are paid to other member states and how they are taxed and how those taxes are divided. 

 

Also EU needs clear tax haven rules to make sure that companies can't go around some member state's taxes by creating "office" in another. 

 

There are lots of this kind things that in my opinion needs to be better handled on EU level.

[Drowsy Emperor]

 

That's something that the media is saying but its not supported by reality. Borders are still open for EU passport holders and the countries with schengen agreement, trade (the key thing around which EU integration revolved) is still flowing. Nothing of substance has changed. Controlling the flow of people across borders is not sufficient reason for EU "disintegration".

For most countries borders are a symptom more than anything. For some (Greece) it would approach an almost existential problem if the multi multi hundreds of thousands of refugees that have transited Greece stay there- they simply don't have the money and have problems with geography as the vast majority of refugees arrive on small islands with low populations and infrastructure which are also important for tourism. But for most it's a symptom of how the theoretically fair and equal EU with collective responsibility etc isn't, really. EU is supposed to be an inevitable, irreversible march to more integration; practically that has hit some snags and the inevitable and irreversible bits are looking more evitable and reversible. It may be true that nothing of substance has changed- personally I'd disagree since things clearly have changed since Merkel's "Wilkommen alles" last summer- but the intangibles of being big E European as opposed to or in addition to being German/ French/ British/ Hungarian etc should not be underestimated. The Euro crisis, UK referendum, existing opt outs for Denmark and the UK and the refugee crisis damage the prestige of the EU as an existing institution and do even more harm to the dream of a 'United States of Europe'.

 

Essentially, the end game for the EU is for there to literally be no borders between the countries. Re-establishing them, even in a manner which still allows trade and free movement of citizens is a retrograde step.

Ah but the EU was never an unimpeded march towards integration. The political and security aspects were notoriously back and forth with more failures than successes. It was the economical advantages that glued EU countries together when all else failed. So while closing the borders (for immigrants, because that's what it boils down to) is a step back, it doesn't really disturb entrenched interests that much.

 

I think at this point everyone is aware of how unequal the EU is towards its smaller members - and not just Greece, nor just on this issue. If Germany is going to do its own thing without caring for the impact that will have on everyone else... well then, maybe the EU integration should reverse, no?

Edited March 5, 2016 by Drowsy Emperor

[Chilloutman]

you simply cant choose country for refugees while there is free movement within EU. How are you going to make sure that these people stay where they are? Do you also know why they want to go to Germany? Do you understand that EU is not one state with equal economical balance? You have states which have 2-3time higher pays than their neighbors. Until this is resolved you  cant even think about USE. Only thing which holds it together are 'nationalists' ironically. People which have ties to their motherland. If it would not everyone would be in Germany or Sweden and rest of EU would be abandoned

[Zoraptor]

USE is the endgame and it transparently has been for decades, really. It is primarily being pushed by the big players- France and especially Germany- rather than the little players, certainly, and they are the more developed members. Theoretically at least it should be good for weaker economies, if it were a level playing field but the deck is of course stacked towards benefiting the big players. Essentially it's like if the USA were separate states seeking to join together, California would have the biggest say in things, Texas, New York etc a decent amount but Rhode Island (too small) or Alabama/ Mississippi (too poor)... not so much. As it stands poorer US states get big benefits from being integrated into the US but if it were a current union negotiation instead they would not be in a favourable position. You don't get poorer places emptying of population because of numerous factors other than nationalism too, that's far too simplistic.
 
 

Ah but the EU was never an unimpeded march towards integration.

 
I agree- but it doesn't have to be 'perfect' or unimpeded progress to be inevitable. It's the accumulation of the various impediments that stops it from being inevitable, a few bumps on the road can be avoided but if you get enough it stops being a road and you can't go further.