Turkey shoots down russian jet

[HoonDing]

"ISIS is not a threat to anyone except for its immediate neighbours."

 

not a direct threat, no

[Darkpriest]

Hah, seems Russians went for a check mate move:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-warns-syria-talks-not-achieve-results-kurds-101016696.html

 

I wonder how will this be spinned by US and EU politicians... this will surely not happen due to Turks, but now it puts a strain on Western politicians... I mean... how to explain that to the public that people who fight hardest against ISIS and fight for their free country and personal freedom, will not get their voice.

[Zoraptor]

The PYD/YPG (ie 'Kurds', or their most significant group) will be at the talks in some form, probably by having one of their umbrella organisations which include other groups invited as a 3rd party to the FSA/ moderate Al Qaeda group and the government. It won't just be the Saudi vetted group going but will probably not include anyone who would overly provoke Turkey. It would make the western politicians look rather two faced if people knew about it but it's unlikely to pop up in a 30 second news report- and it is likely that those well enough informed to know about it already think politicians are two faced. It's certainly impossible to argue credibly that the kurds shouldn't be there, or that they should be included in the government delegation as the Saudis tried to argue.

 

Seems that shooting that plane down really was the worst thing Turkey could have done for the rebels in Latakia too, they're pretty close now to being wholly ejected from the province having lost their two most important strongholds there in the last week or so.

[Zoraptor]

The PYD/YPG (ie 'Kurds', or their most significant group) will be at the talks in some form, probably by having one of their umbrella organisations which include other groups invited..

 

Or not, as it seems that the MSD, which PYD is the largest member of, has turned down their invite. While it's brave there's little chance of the UN calling Turkey's bluff (which to be fair is probably not a bluff, so it would probably by a FOAD instead) and belatedly inviting any PYD members and the US will probably cope with the mild embarrassment of having their most consistent Syrian ally against ISIS of the past 18 months ostracised by Erdogani fiat rather than expend some political capital against Turkey and Saudi. End of the day it's more good news for Assad and more good news for Russia as it clearly illustrates that the west cannot be even minimally relied upon by the Kurds; and makes a bilateral agreement between them and the government under a Russian aegis even more likely.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Zoraptor

[Darkpriest]

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/01/27/russia-hunts-for-pilots-killer-in-syria-turkey-border-town.html

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/25/briton-on-fighting-in-syria-i-was-terrified-the-entire-way

 

He said he believes Turkey should be kicked out of Nato and claims to have witnessed Turkish soldiers handing weapons and ammunition to Isis fighters in Jarabulus, just over the Turkish border, in August; a claim almost impossible to verify and one that would be denied by Turkey.

[Zoraptor]

Turkey alleges another intrusion. Su-34 this time so a plane far more capable of defending itself than a Su-24, and convenient timing given that the Kurds have been formally uninvited from the peace talks. Which now lack 3 of the largest factions and look like being even more pointless than they looked a week ago. In any case, Recep wants me to tell you that he is still waiting for your call, Vladimir.

[Meshugger]

It is not an impossible thought that either future presidents Sanders or Trump would throw Turkey out of NATO (Trump more likely), forge an alliance with Russia and Kurdish militias and we will have WWIII, ending with the newly appointed Orthodox Bishop re-opening the Haga Sofia Cathedral in Constantinople. The other Arab nations will complain, but they will do nothing as they all secretly hate Turks with a passion.

 

Just my speculation, i could be wrong.

[Zoraptor]

The only plausible bit about that (barely) is Turkey being ejected from NATO, and that really is barely plausible.

 

Bosporus is too important strategically and NATO membership is set up very much as being an inevitability for any country anywhere near Europe except Russia. Chucking countries out even if they are drowning you in refugees/ helping ISIS/ provoking Russians/ attacking your allies in Syria directly ain't going to happen, those negatives simply aren't important enough and Turkey knows it. Indeed, they can expect general appeasement on some issues (refugees, contrast criticism of Turkey with criticism of Greece) rather than even mere condemnation. NATO would probably back Turkey even if they shot down a Russian jet that definitively hadn't intruded or had an aircraft of theirs downed that clearly had.

 

That's one of the reasons it might be interesting if Russia ends up using the airbase at Qamishli (government held enclave in Syrian Kurd territory), that would give a very easy ability- though unlikely to actually happen- to shoot down the Turkish helicopters that have regularly violated Syrian airspace, or very publicly document and denounce them.

[Darkpriest]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-trying-draw-turkey-fight-192200979.html

[Zoraptor]

Erdogan throws a wobbley because the US won't call the PYD/ YPG (Syrian Kurds) terrorists. Not exactly news since he's done it regularly except that the US finally explicitly said yesterday that they don't consider them terrorists, hence the wobbley complete with gross hyperbole like them being the cause of a 'sea of blood'. For that you can blame the government, you can blame the rebels and/or their backers, or ISIS; but you really can't blame the PYD.

 

There are also a bunch of rumours that Saudi Arabia is actually going to intervene via Jordan using some scheduled war games as a smokescreen instead of just posturing impotently as everyone presumed, and perhaps in concert with Turkey from the north. Though I'd be very surprised if either happened Erdogan and an absolute monarch with rumoured dementia are not exactly rational and the options for propping up the rebels are very limited so long as the Russians are bombing everything. It's probably just an attempt to shore up rebel morale* as several pretty major towns held by rebels have been negotiating truces/ surrender and their situation in north Aleppo is dire.

 

*while Russia proposing a March 1 truce is probably the reverse, trying to encourage individual surrenders/ truces when Al Nusra and pals inevitably reject it.

[Darkpriest]

I suspect that they will progress around allepo to a point where they will either tak the city as a part of a truce agreement or starve it to death.

 

I am sure Russians have a plan of operations to reach certain goals by that day and talk from the position of power instead of equals.

[Meshugger]

If Aleppo falls back into into Assad's hands, we will might see one of the power players behind this proxy war to spill his cards all over the table. I wonder who that might be...

Edited February 11, 2016 by Meshugger

[rjshae]

The first think I thought when I saw that headline was... bird strike! Man, that jet must have been flying ultra-NOE.

[Zoraptor]

I suspect that they will progress around allepo to a point where they will either tak the city as a part of a truce agreement or starve it to death.

 

I am sure Russians have a plan of operations to reach certain goals by that day and talk from the position of power instead of equals.

 

Seems likely, except the starving to death part. The pattern has been rapid advance followed by consolidation while pulverising rebel counter attacks since the russian intervention, by that measure there should be another advance coming within the next week. I'm sure they'd far prefer rebel surrender/ truce or withdrawal from east Aleppo rather than surrounding them, the SAA is not good at urban fighting and they already could stop most supplies getting into east Aleppo anyway- the supply route along the Castilo Highway is only about 2 km wide and has been for more than a year, easily hit by mortar or artillery let alone easily bombed.

 

Truce talk is also to try and short circuit any thought of direct intervention from the other side due to 'government intransigence'. It looks like Saudi Arabia at least is actually going to go through with intervention though; Al Arabiya is Saudi version of Qatar's Al Jazeera so that comes direct from government. It would at least explain why the rebels were so keen to withdraw from the peace talks despite losing badly on the ground.

 

Another potentially big development is a government attack towards Tabqa, which is at the bottom end of a hydroelectric lake on the Euphrates, half way between Aleppo and Raqqa. If taken it would cut all of ISIS's territory in Aleppo off from its rump holdings, and Raqqa off from the Turkish border. Not going to hold my breath over that happening though it would be very bold if it did.

[Meshugger]

 

I suspect that they will progress around allepo to a point where they will either tak the city as a part of a truce agreement or starve it to death.

 

I am sure Russians have a plan of operations to reach certain goals by that day and talk from the position of power instead of equals.

 

Seems likely, except the starving to death part. The pattern has been rapid advance followed by consolidation while pulverising rebel counter attacks since the russian intervention, by that measure there should be another advance coming within the next week. I'm sure they'd far prefer rebel surrender/ truce or withdrawal from east Aleppo rather than surrounding them, the SAA is not good at urban fighting and they already could stop most supplies getting into east Aleppo anyway- the supply route along the Castilo Highway is only about 2 km wide and has been for more than a year, easily hit by mortar or artillery let alone easily bombed.

 

Truce talk is also to try and short circuit any thought of direct intervention from the other side due to 'government intransigence'. It looks like Saudi Arabia at least is actually going to go through with intervention though; Al Arabiya is Saudi version of Qatar's Al Jazeera so that comes direct from government. It would at least explain why the rebels were so keen to withdraw from the peace talks despite losing badly on the ground.

 

Another potentially big development is a government attack towards Tabqa, which is at the bottom end of a hydroelectric lake on the Euphrates, half way between Aleppo and Raqqa. If taken it would cut all of ISIS's territory in Aleppo off from its rump holdings, and Raqqa off from the Turkish border. Not going to hold my breath over that happening though it would be very bold if it did.

 

 

So the Saudis are getting more than ready to throw the first stone to say? even less subtle than i originally thought.

[Zoraptor]

Saudis have been at least handing out stones since the beginning- right near the start they demanded Assad release a bunch of islamist political prisoners (though given what happened they were probably legit preventative detentions) as part of reforms and a show of good faith then used them to foment the rebellion; ironically that was then used as evidence by many to 'prove' that Assad deliberately turned the rebels islamist. And the TOW anti tank missiles and much of the other supplies the rebels get are direct from Saudi stocks.

 

I still find it very hard to believe they'd actually invade, though that's assuming they're acting logically. Saudi leadership literally believes they're appointed by God Himself and the new king has been particularly unpredictable. If they aren't going to do it then they've put a decent effort into the bluff.

[Darkpriest]

I doubt, at least not before the resolution of the planned peace talks. It would be a diplomatic suicide especially when the negotiations are the only means for US now to keep some relevance in the public opinion. Although it seems NATO is being mobilized to fight in Syria.

[Darkpriest]

I do not like where this is heading... I can only hope that US and NATO will bail on retarded muslim allies, otherwise we will have WW III:

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-troops-syria-2016-2

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-missiles-idUSKCN0VL278

 

http://europe.newsweek.com/russia-practices-black-sea-naval-battle-nato-announces-reinforcement-425595?rm=eu

 

I can only hope that Obama will not suddenly grow a pair and will keep US out of that conflict. West EU countries won't go into war alone, they are under equipped and undermanned due to constant cuts on military and more and more spending on stupid things.

 

also it seems China is moving into the region, not yet fighting force, but they are already passing the laws and are in diplomatic talks with Iraq:

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-china-rules-out-joining-anti-terrorism-coalitions-says-helping-iraq-2016-2

Edited February 12, 2016 by Darkpriest

[BruceVC]

http://www.hometownlife.com/story/news/world/2016/02/11/us-russia-agree-deal-cease-fire-syrias-civil-war/80259530/

 

So Russia and the USA have agreed on  a ceasefire and also defined who the " good" guys are so Russia stops  bombing them...apparently Russia wasn't sure exactly who were considered the bad guys in Syria and will now focus there bombing campaign on ISIS and AQ linked groups in Syria 

[Zoraptor]

I do not like where this is heading... I can only hope that US and NATO will bail on retarded muslim allies, otherwise we will have WW III:

 

The truce is likely to try and make sure they don't have to make that particular decision.

 

Saudi invading and getting their nose bloodied could be shrugged off with some Stern Words about Russia and Assad- nobody cares about dead Colombians and Pakistanis mercenaries, after all, and nobody likes Saudi (well, except Bruce) plus Obama has far more leeway for ignoring them given he's late 2nd term- but Turkey could easily lead to big escalation, there would be no article 5 protection theoretically but any Turkish attack on the airbase at Hmeimem and Russia would have to hit Turkey proper and at that point article 5 and who started it would go out the window and all bets are off.

 

So long as it stays in Syria I doubt it would escalate whatever happens, but neither Saudi nor Erdogan like being baulked at all, Erdogan in particular may make the above calculation and instead decide that he can safely escalate from behind NATO.

[Darkpriest]

This is not really related but potentially a big changer on the global map. If that will come to life and China will also decide to move in military form to ME, the region will be a really huge problem and potentially a WW III sparking point...

 

https://ecowatch.com/2016/02/12/china-nuclear-weapons-high-alert/

[BruceVC]

This is not really related but potentially a big changer on the global map. If that will come to life and China will also decide to move in military form to ME, the region will be a really huge problem and potentially a WW III sparking point...

 

https://ecowatch.com/2016/02/12/china-nuclear-weapons-high-alert/

But why would China deciding to become militarily involved in the ME mean there may be increased chance of WW3?

 

The Chinese would be assisting the Russain\USA coalition so where is the issue...what am I missing? 

[Darkpriest]

Everyone would have different interests there... like... fighting ISIS is an excuse to be involved in changing the political landscape in the region. It has ZERO to do with actual fight against extremists.

 

China has decided to move into the region, it is only unknown how involved they will get. Considering their long term approach they will probably just make strong diplomatic ties in Iraq and then will observe what is going on, while moving some armed force there.

 

They do not act too rashly, but they do have in mind for example the execution of their citizens. One does not raise hand without punishment, even if it seems very slow.

Edited February 13, 2016 by Darkpriest

[BruceVC]

Everyone would have different interests there... like... fighting ISIS is an excuse to be involved in changing the political landscape in the region. It has ZERO to do with actual fight against extremists.

 

China has decided to move into the region, it is only unknown how involved they will get. Considering their long term approach they will probably just make strong diplomatic ties in Iraq and then will observe what is going on, while moving some armed force there.

 

They do not act too rashly, but they do have in mind for example the execution of their citizens. One does not raise hand without punishment, even if it seems very slow.

I have to be honest it still doesn't make sense to me?

 

The Chinese don't care about human rights abuses or leaders who  commit genocide, they are only normally  concerned when it may impact there own economic trajectory. So you could argue they want to build Oil relationships but there is an oversupply at the moment and they can buy oil from non-Opec members like Russia 

 

So why would they now get involved militarily in a hellhole like the ME?