Turkey shoots down russian jet

[Chilloutman]

Didnt they planned some oil/gas pipline to avoid Ukraine transition or something?

[Drowsy Emperor]

Yeah but that was up in the air even before this crisis.

 

I don't know what possessed Erdogan to ruin economic relations over a pointless incident. Its not like they're going to intervene in Syria on ISIS's behalf or the Russians are going to stop doing what they're doing on account of one lost jet.

 

The more you look at it, the more pointless it becomes. Bad Russian-Turkish relations are more in the interest of the US than either Turkey or Russia.

[FlintlockJazz]

Regardless of what happened between the jets in this incident, neither side can really back down.  Both sides are testing the other's resolve and power now, and relenting or admitting guilt on either side will be seen as weakness by the other that will be exploited.  All the governments around the world are watching this, not to find out who is right or wrong but who to side up with for future conflicts.

[Darkpriest]

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-holding-turkish-goods-border-relations-sour-101020011--finance.html

 

Seems like a reasonable response so far. Not sure who this will hurt more in the long run.

Well this will probably force Putin to stop squabble over Ukraine and will lead to renewing trade with EU.

 

Turks are the easier economic target for Russians and they cannot have bans for both producers of food. Unless they want to tie themselves with Chinese... I know they would like to not overcommit to that relationship as well.

[Darkpriest]

Not sure how accurate this is, but Russia deployed their S-400 land SAM. It can easily target even quite advanced aircrafts.

 

 

This is suppoused zone of control for that deployed system.

[Darkpriest]

Additionally, not sure how accurate this is, but it seems that Russia alreayd added a significant number of SU-27CM and SU-30CM, which will be constantly patroling skies on the Turkish-Syrian border and escorting the Russian bombing operations in the region.

 

Apparently extra S-300 land and sea based are also added to the anti-air matrix in the region, and Russia officially infomred US that each flight and mission has to be reported to them due to this coverage. 

 

on top of that they responded to Israel, that they have no intention of leaving those systems in Syria once the operation against ISIS and OTHER terrorists will be completed, as Israel voiced concerns over the deployment of these systems that can also cover their airspace.

 

it seems that Russian bombing operations have increased in intensity over the couple last hours once the S-400 systems were deployed and the additional fighter jets were relocated.

 

 

EDIT: I cannot verify the legitimacy of the source, so please take all of this with a healthy dose of doubt.

 

EDIT2: Apparently a lot of information ahs been already confirmed officially by Russians, such as extra fighter jets and deployment of S-400, still no official confirmation on other pieces in the above, but considering the partial confimration it might be highly probable.

Edited November 26, 2015 by Darkpriest

[Agiel]

Not sure how accurate this is, but Russia deployed their S-400 land SAM. It can easily target even quite advanced aircrafts.

 

 

This is suppoused zone of control for that deployed system.

 

Not accurate, at all.

 

The SA-21 is simply too important to relocate from defense of Moscow, particularly to a place where their control over their territory is tenuous. What the Russians do have is a Slava cruiser off the coast of Syria with the navalised variant of the SA-10, the SA-N-6, which has a kinematic range of about 50nm, which is probably enough given the amount of coastal territory the Syrian government controls.

 

And in any case, can't risk the Israelis somehow making off with the thing.

Edited November 26, 2015 by Agiel

[Darkpriest]

Isn't that article from two weeks ago? How is it relevant to for example events from yesterday and today?

 

We have at least one official confirmation from yesterday about deploying naval based S-300s there (Heavy Rocket Cruiser "Moskva").

Edited November 26, 2015 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

hahaha, this is pure gold...

 

https://news.yahoo.com/west-urges-escalation-turkey-shoots-down-russian-plane-082736643.html

 

"We did not know it was Russian" - Probably Turks got a message at the NATO meeting "you are in this on your own, you attacked them" and now are shaking pants.

 

Probably something to do with US knowing about the flight path of those planes:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/us-knew-flight-path-plane-downed-turkey-putin-202631534.html

 

Also - Russians standard rules vs. someone offending them... bye bye Turkmen "moderate" rebels

 

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-destroyed-syria-rebels-area-where-jet-174019543.html#

 

In the same news Russians officially confrimed deployment of S-400s to the region:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-deploys-400-missiles-syria-ministry-185100828.html

 

 

EDIT: additional news

 

Turkish aid convoys bombed in Syria:

http://mashable.com/2015/11/25/airstrike-aid-convoy-azaz-syria/#H7zpkAgrimq4

 

Russians bombing Turkish-Syrian border town:

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-warplanes-bomb-turkish-syrian-border-town-residents-151555065--business.html

Edited November 26, 2015 by Darkpriest

[Drowsy Emperor]

The Russians should now shoot down the first plane that takes off near the Syrian-Turkish border. They can always clam it was about to attack one of their aircraft. That's about as legitimate (cynical) as Turkey's 15 second airspace violation.

Edited November 26, 2015 by Drowsy Emperor

[Zoraptor]

That would be moronic, it isn't even slightly legit and would be a clear article 5 situation. A Turkish 'copter having a ping at some YPG around Hassakah as happened yesterday, that's fair game for a warning then shoot down.

 

Isn't that article from two weeks ago? How is it relevant to for example events from yesterday and today?

 

We have at least one official confirmation from yesterday about deploying naval based S-300s there (Heavy Rocket Cruiser "Moskva").

 

There are pics of the S-400 at Hmemeim airbase from today. Some ambiguity is possible since S-400 is a direct evolution of the S-300 and certain elements of each system are interchangeable, but it certainly seems legit.

 

In these circumstances the Russians are not going to blink, that's why shooting a plane was fundamentally stupid; if they say they're going to deploy something at the moment then they will deploy, anything else sends exactly the wrong message to Turkey.
 

but 600kph when intruding,

To quote Barbie "Math is hard!". The radar trace has the Su24 at a near constant 300kph or slightly above, including during intrusion (300kph == 5km/ min or 1km per 12s, so intrusion speed was 300-375kph).

 

Two other relevant bits of information too, the Russian navigator claims the Su24 was following a normal flight path home, which would allow for setting up of cameras to capture a shoot down*, it would just be a matter of waiting; and allegedly (ie not confirmed) communications between Russian planes and coalition ones are not supposed to be on the standard Guard frequency but on a separate frequency. Both are unconfirmed but plausible, since ISIS could easily monitor any Guard communications and the Su24 had finished bombing and was returning to base. If true the 2nd would explain why the Russians were potentially not monitoring Guard**, they'd have been monitoring the other channel, and potentially why the Turkish planes did not contact the Su24, only the radar station and why the Russians made that specific statement.

 

*that's how the Serbs shot down a F117 with a venerable Sa-3 despite it being theoretically incapable of targeting an F117, the plane used the same return path on a regular schedule so they knew where it would be.

** it's unclear if they should have been anyway, it's for use in international or foreign airspace and is not usually required to be monitored if you're in the foreign airspace by direct invitation of that country, at that point it becomes friendly airspace.

Edited November 27, 2015 by Zoraptor

[Volourn]

"The Russians should now shoot down the first plane that takes off near the Syrian-Turkish border. They can always clam it was about to attack one of their aircraft. That's about as legitimate (cynical) as Turkey's 15 second airspace violation."

 

L0L Your pro Russian hypocrisy knows no bounds.

[Sarex]

L0L Your pro Russian hypocrisy knows no bounds.

 

Why hypocrisy though?

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

So when do the Kurds get some new arms?

[Zoraptor]

They've been getting US+ a few others (Germany at least) small arms for a while now. I wouldn't expect anything more significant than that and targeted air strikes though, even when under their new umbrella organisation.

 

The problem with anything more significant is that they'd be increasingly likely to be used against Turkey- who strongly dislikes even small arms supplies- and their proxies rather than ISIS; and have almost no chance of being used against the Syrian Army. Indeed, fighting with Turkish proxies like Al Nusra and Ahrar ash Sham is directly helpful towards the Syrian Government since it massively narrows the rebel supply line into Aleppo as well as dividing the rebel forces. Plus, the Syrian Kurds are fundamentally reluctant to expand outside of Kurdish regions and cannot politically be the main force attacking places like Raqqa/ Deir ez Zor or especially the big population centres held in the north near to Turkey like Manbij or El Bab.

 

Same general principle applies for Russia as well since the YPG isn't strictly their allies, though they certainly aren't their enemies, if they want to trouble the Turks they'll put SAMs into government controlled Hassakeh rather than arm the Kurds directly as that would annoy the Syrian Government [and Iraq, and Iran] too much.

Edited November 27, 2015 by Zoraptor

[Drowsy Emperor]

The thing with kurds is that everyone wants to use them but no one actually wants them to create their own state even though they have a more legitimate claim to one than most others in the region. They're too spread out to make such a thing happen without wrecking several other stated in the process.

[Hildegard]

So here's the man who killed the Russian pilot while parachuting, turns out to be a Turkish citizen, shocked really.

 

http://southfront.org/turkmen-commander-who-admitted-killing-2-russian-pilots-is-turkey-citizen/

 

http://anfenglish.com/news/turkmen-commander-turns-out-to-be-turkish-nationalist

 

That area in which Turkmen rebels operate is the very region where pretty much all the foreign fighters from Europe come to fight for ISIS. 

 

 

I really hope from all of this that Russia would arm the Kurds to the teeth to fight of the Islamist scum. 

[Drowsy Emperor]

Polonium tea incoming

[Darkpriest]

Some more news:

 

No Visa free agreement:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-just-dealt-huge-blow-164949490.html

 

Deployment of electronic warefare and countermeasures:

 

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/11/27/reports-russia-launches-electronic-warfare-in-syria-as-tensions-rise.html

 

Warning that should that repeat, Russia will stop co-operating with US coalition over Syria (which will result basically with no-fly zone for coalition crafts having all the anti-air systems in place and electronic warefare going vs Turkey):

 

http://uk.businessinsider.com/vladimir-putin-threatens-battle-against-isis-over-turkey-downing-jet-2015-11

 

Another threat from Edrogan:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/turkey-russia-erdogan_56584e06e4b079b2818a61be?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

Edited November 27, 2015 by Darkpriest

[Darkpriest]

ISIS had stashes of US ammo?

 

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/news/a40038/look-inside-isiss-secret-tunnels/

[Zoraptor]

The US hasn't ever (deliberately, some air drops have gone astray) directly supplied ISIS as its ultimate origin is from Al Qaeda in Iraq who was their most implacable enemy there; some of the Gulf States did supply them, though not openly and both supplied 'moderate' groups who defected to ISIS in 2013-14. But most of their US equipment stocks come from the numerous Iraqi and Kurdish bases they overran in 2014. ISIS having stocks of US ammo isn't an issue unless it can be shown it was a recent acquisition, and from a 'friendly' state. Even then we won't hear about it, there would just be some fist waving on the quiet.

[Mamoulian War]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/turkey-shoots-down-russian-plane-astrophysicists-say-both-official-accounts-are-partially-a6752741.html

 

A rebuttal of both "official" versions, made by belgian physicists.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

 

The EU just gave Turkey a sweet deal.

[Zoraptor]

The deal doesn't really mean anything significant. There was no way that Turkey was getting into the EU under the CHP, there's less than no chance it will under the AKP. The cash is nice, but less than the refugees would be costing. It's basically the Tukrish leadership and the EU pretending to like each other for political and PR reasons plus a sop to Erdogan's ego.

 

Could be something interesting coming up though, there are multiple reports of hundreds of tanks and AFVs being moved from western Turkey towards Syria.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/turkey-shoots-down-russian-plane-astrophysicists-say-both-official-accounts-are-partially-a6752741.html

A rebuttal of both "official" versions, made by belgian physicists.

 

Heh, that's more or less exactly what I said about the Turkish version. Can't say I'd be in the least bit surprised if their analysis of the Russian version is correct too, for all that I believe Turkey was looking for an excuse to act it seems unlikely they'd do something for which there could be conclusive evidence of them outright lying since that would mean at least theoretically no NATO backing.

[Darkpriest]

Seems that Russian SU-34 got new air to air weaponry in Syria to enhance their "defensive" capabilities. It's some variant of missiles with effecive range of 60km.