World Economy

[teknoman2]

it's called enikos and it's greek. i dont remember who was the finance minister at the time.

[Darkpriest]

it's called enikos and it's greek. i dont remember who was the finance minister at the time.

 

if there is one thing we should know by now is to not trust modern greeks in any form of modern mathematics, especially when it comes to finance...

[Zoraptor]

Soros himself proudly tells how a few wealthy investors and speculators can put a central bank to its knees if there is a incentive to do so...with a profit.

[..]

 

Monte has the right idea.

 

The Soros style attacks don't work unless the government props up the currency artificially, as with trying to keep the pound in the ERM. Given the disaster that the Euro is the UK should probably be saying thank you to Soros anyway, I know I would be.

 

We had an attack on our currency a few years ago, our reserve bank let them run out of steam then bought up lots of nzd at 60USc to sell off when the currency reached 87USc; nice profit, thanks guys. Same thing happened with Russia late last year/ early this year. Do it right and while there may be some short term problems longer term the country makes money because the currency is being artificially devalued and will rebound.

[Wrath of Dagon]

I'm not too worried about US economy right now, I think it's pretty solid. Long term we got problems because of the utter disinterest/inability to control debt or unfunded liabilities.

[Gorth]

Looks like the Chinese economy has entered puberty (on the long road to maturity). Some hard and volatile years ahead. It's going to be interesting to see how the old guard is going to deal with the need for change.

 

Edit: At least judging be the almost free fall the stock market seems have entered at the time of writing.

[Orogun01]

Looks like the Chinese economy has entered puberty (on the long road to maturity). Some hard and volatile years ahead. It's going to be interesting to see how the old guard is going to deal with the need for change.

 

Edit: At least judging be the almost free fall the stock market seems have entered at the time of writing.

Why is dumping your currency to upset the global market considered mature?

[Zoraptor]

Arguably monkeying around with your currency is a sign of maturity because you can only really do it successfully (well, with minimal problems) if you're big enough to get away with it since no one really wants a confidence crisis in an important currency.

 

That doesn't really look like it's what Gorth was saying though, I'd presume he was more meaning that China's perpetual growth cycle had to end at some point- China has been manipulating its currency basically forever, it has never properly floated in recent history because they think it would ruin their international competitiveness and they don't have enough of a domestic market to support their industries. Basically, they're worried about becoming Japan 2.0 and going from remarkable sustained growth to stagflation and atrophy. That's been the death of many governments in Japan, for obvious reasons the Communist Party doesn't want that for China. They haven't been quite as bad in their currency manipulation as the US has suggested, but they've been pretty bad at it. To an extent it is also responsible for their problems as as with many other of the manipulations in China's economy it has lead to some pretty significant artificial/ bubble growth in the manufacturing sector which has contributed to their stock market's artificial bubble.

 

It's not like China is the only one doing it either, both the US and Europe have and are generating a lot of magic money from money printing and super low interest rates which immediately looks for a return in property (hence the ludicrous bubbles in many cities eg houses being sold four times in three months, with 33% appreciation...) or the stock market. It's supposed- kind of, at least- to contribute to more 'real world' 'productive' investment instead of 'theoretical' stuff, but the theoretical stuff has a far larger return so that's where most of the money goes whether it be China or anywhere else.

[Wrath of Dagon]

I consider China a dangerous enemy, so their economy doing bad is good news. Last time we weren't particularly affected by the Asian financial crisis, so hopefully it'll be the same this time.

[Orogun01]

I consider China a dangerous enemy, so their economy doing bad is good news. Last time we weren't particularly affected by the Asian financial crisis, so hopefully it'll be the same this time.

The thing is that in a globalized market a country doing bad means that we all do bad in some aspects, I expect more artificial crisis will come in the future as corporations convince politicians that the only way to stop the crisis is by granting them additional powers in order to make the markets stable.  So more TTP and the likes until the markets stop crashing or until someone realizes that the only reasons the markets are failing is because corporations have gotten too big.

[Gorth]

That doesn't really look like it's what Gorth was saying though, I'd presume he was more meaning that China's perpetual growth cycle had to end at some point- China has been manipulating its currency basically forever, it has never properly floated in recent history because they think it would ruin their international competitiveness and they don't have enough of a domestic market to support their industries.

This. Hence the "puberty" remark, for all the power they wield through their sheer size (as a market and as an economy), they are inexperienced to the point of naivety. It's like a child with a gun, a disaster waiting to happen if not offered guidance in a way that make them listen rather than being offended (I imagine it being like dealing with teenagers throwing temper tantrums).

 

if there is one thing we should know by now is to not trust modern greeks

The Trojans may have a few things to say about trusting the ancient Greeks too

[Rosbjerg]

So more TTP and the likes until the markets stop crashing or until someone realizes that the only reasons the markets are failing is because corporations have gotten too big.

 

The markets are unstable because they are competetive. Even if we had a "perfect" market, there would still be recessions and upswings, its inherent in the system. Only way to get rid of them is to change the system entirely. But you're right that they would probably (and that's an uncertain probably) not be as bad if there was no "too-big-to-fail" player actively encouraging/speculating in market instability.

[BruceVC]

The issue with the Chinese economy is not there manipulation of there currency
 

 

Firstly emerging markets and most countries that rely on exporting  commodities, like gold and iron, have become reliant on the Chinese economy growing every year by 7-8 % and the fact the Chinese will always buy these commodities. So the concern from many economists has always been " can the Chinese sustain this growth"

 

As I mentioned previously in this thread over the last 2-3 months the Chinese have lost trillions of dollars in there stock market from people selling shares, the Chinese solution to this was artificial stimulation through buying there own shares and forcing there own investment banks to buy billions of dollars of shares. This is not the way many economists will tell you is the way to restore confidence to a stock market

 

http://freemarketcafe.com/2015/07/china-when-4-trillion-goes-to-stock-market-heaven/

 

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/chinese-stock-market-loses-3-trillion-month-1767503/

 

http://economiccollapsenews.com/2015/07/10/chinese-stock-market-loses-3-25-trillion-in-a-month-is-china-on-the-verge-of-an-economic-collapse/

 

So this panic of selling shares has now become contagious and we are now seeing mass selling of shares in other stock markets

 

Some economists will tell you this is  a natural correction of inflated stock prices and we mustn't panic

 

What is a reality is emerging markets that are very dependent on the Chinese buying there resources will be negatively impacted ....this is bad. This bad for countries like South Africa

 

But the European and the USA stock markets will stabilize, we are already seeing this. However the overall confidence in the Chinese being able to guarantee 8 % growth  is now a real question and its unlikely they will be able to continue to do this going forward so we need to accept the economic consequences of this 

Edited August 26, 2015 by BruceVC

[BruceVC]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-25/china-said-to-halt-stock-market-support-amid-intervention-debate-idr2sxku

 

Here is a updated link to get an understanding of what the Chinese have been doing around intervention in there Stock Market

[Rostere]

Obviously the fractional reserve banking system is a problem (at the very least indirectly, because it has forced governments into "corporate welfare"). Otherwise I don't think there are any real problems with corporations in general. Governments are to blame for not investing enough into education and not fostering a culture of adaptivity. Instead we get a dependence on low-skill industries and a strange sense of entitlement among workers. Some businesses are meant to fail during some economic circumstances, yet some people would portray this as a problem - highly irrational behaviour.

[Meshugger]

/pol/ predicts that according to judean calendar, the shmitah of the blood moon in the Torah, a major crash will happen by 13th september 2015. It is a sabbathical cycle that occurs about every seven years (see crashes of 2008, 2001, 1994, 1987, etc) or so. 

 

Since 95% of all market experts proved to be full of **** back in 2008, why not go for the /pol/-prophecy this time? Just remember kids:

 

[BruceVC]

/pol/ predicts that according to judean calendar, the shmitah of the blood moon in the Torah, a major crash will happen by 13th september 2015. It is a sabbathical cycle that occurs about every seven years (see crashes of 2008, 2001, 1994, 1987, etc) or so. 

 

Since 95% of all market experts proved to be full of **** back in 2008, why not go for the /pol/-prophecy this time? Just remember kids:

 

 

I reject conspiracy theorists, especially when the reasons for market fluctuation is clearly documented and understood

 

Its unhelpful to say things like " there is a cycle of economic pressure on global markets which is known to people who follow Judean Calendars "

 

The global economy is not defined and impacted by mysticism and superstition or the Illuminati, we cannot always predict market sentiment or how governments choose to manage there economies. So for example what is happening in China at the moment was not 100 %  predicted but  possible  but it also isn't something that was inevitable 

 

For me its simple, you cannot prevent the free market from being the best arbitrator of determining the health of a countries economy. The Chinese still think government intervention in there stock market is a viable option to ensure sustainability. They seem to be now realizing this will not work in the long term

[Meshugger]

Boy, you're no fun.

[BruceVC]

Boy, you're no fun.

 

Sorry...its just some people really do believe that economic prophecies made many years ago are real. And I live in a country where that becomes a real part of the narrative...and its frustrating because in South Africa our economy is being impacted by the Chinese slowdown and there own economic issues and we should be discussing the real economic changes we need to make in South Africa and not relying on the " wisdom" of soothsayers 

 

[Barothmuk]

Boy, you're no fun.

Don't worry, I'm sure 3 weeks from now a Jewish financed Hindu apocalypse will bring about the Christian rapture. Just got to believe.

[Meshugger]

 

Boy, you're no fun.

Don't worry, I'm sure 3 weeks from now a Jewish financed Hindu apocalypse will bring about the Christian rapture. Just got to believe.

 

 

Of course it will happen. It doesn't matter if you believe in the Shmita, those with the money do.

 

Even seasoned economists like Martin Armstrong agree, just look at what economic confidence model presented: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/ (major big bang in Q4 2015)

 

I'll give you a hint: all those 4 000 000 000 000 dollars that fed have printed for "quantative easening" will have to go somewhere sooner or later and then things will be interesting.

[HoonDing]