Greece, EU and why we can't have nice things

[teknoman2]

 

EU was a mistake. It's nothing but trash.

Worked out well for France and Germany, no ?

 

the problem is not EU, its the euro. you cant have 20 countries with completelly different economies using the same coin without establishing a united economic policy. greece, italy and germany have the same prices for food in super markets, but in greece the pay for someone who just started working is 500 euro, in italy 1500 euro and in germany 2100 euro.

the average cost of a 24Mbps ADSL in greece is 28€, in italy 35€ and in germany 8€. the cost of a titanX in greece is 80€ more than italy where it costs 60€ more than germany. the only thing that is cheaper in greece is rent

and they ask to lower the entry pay to 350€ and increase taxes while all prices are unchanged... ask if the average german or italian would ever consider possible to barely survive with that ratio of pay/prices

and the reason greece has no money? because for 40 years now the governments were giving away free money and all productivity came to a halt. some even say they knew it would end up like this and did it on purpose, and im inclined to believe it since the existence of oil under the sea was known since the 60s but they kept denying it because (as later revealed) they had an agreement to leave that oil untouched until 2012. so they burried the country in debt for 40 years in order to give away for "free" the oil

Edited July 7, 2015 by teknoman2

[ShadySands]

 

 

There are legal and political realities where citizens of a region just can't have there own state or just breakaway and join another.

I wonder. Do Brits want their 13 colonies back? I am not sure it was legal to break off by some crazy people back in the time. Hating tea is not good enough reason one would think...

I love tea but I refuse to start misspelling words by adding unnecessary vowels or trade my guns for knives. Edited July 7, 2015 by ShadySands

[Chilloutman]

I just hope they will finally kick Greece out of eurozone, then they can do their commie experiments on their own and with their own money

[Namutree]

I don't know enough about the situation to say much about it without seeming like an idiot, but I just hope things work out for Greece. Not really sure why I even bothered to say that as it should be presumed that we all hope that Greece recovers.

[Raithe]

 

I love tea but I refuse to start misspelling words by adding unnecessary vowels or trade my guns for knives.

 

 

But knives are so shiny. And frankly, it's you who misspell your words you dang colonials.

[BruceVC]

 

 

I love tea but I refuse to start misspelling words by adding unnecessary vowels or trade my guns for knives.

 

 

But knives are so shiny. And frankly, it's you who misspell your words you dang colonials.

 

Plus the Americans don't say Tomato sauce...they say Ketchup which confuses people when I travel to the USA. 

 

" Can you pass the Tomato sauce please " ....." huh... whats that " 

[Bartimaeus]

 

 

 

I love tea but I refuse to start misspelling words by adding unnecessary vowels or trade my guns for knives.

 

 

But knives are so shiny. And frankly, it's you who misspell your words you dang colonials.

 

Plus the Americans don't say Tomato sauce...they say Ketchup which confuses people when I travel to the USA. 

 

" Can you pass the Tomato sauce please " ....." huh... whats that " 

 

 

Hey, I'm an American, and I call most salsas you find in supermarkets "tomato sauce" or "tomato goop"...nevermind ketchup. Stupid American "salsas" primarily consisting of tomato sauce...euck. Homemade or bust.

Edited July 7, 2015 by Bartimaeus

[Fardragon]

I would just like to point out that the last time Europe decided to punish a country for it's misbehaviour was Versailles, June 1919. And that worked out really well for everyone...

[Zoraptor]

Pretty sure that wasn't the last time. The sanctions on Russia in 2014 would be the last time, though certainly not the only one between 1919 and now.

 

Not that Versailles wasn't stupid, but I'm not sure it's possible to stuff the current crisis up sufficiently to get to Versailles levels of consequence.

[Chilloutman]

what consequences, Greece declaring war on EU? doubt that this can work for them :/

[Fardragon]

Pretty sure that wasn't the last time. The sanctions on Russia in 2014 would be the last time, though certainly not the only one between 1919 and now.

 

Not that Versailles wasn't stupid, but I'm not sure it's possible to stuff the current crisis up sufficiently to get to Versailles levels of consequence.

Possible consequence 1) Greece goes to Russia, Russia bales them out in exchange for a navel base in the Mediterranean, the Americans get very upset...

 

Possible consequence 2) Greece collapses and currency speculators turn their attention to Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. All four crash out of the Euro. Britain, angered by the treatment of Greece, votes to leave the EU. Confidence in the EU is lost, rules are ignored, member states elect either extreme right or extreme left governments.

 

Possible consequence 3) Greek terrorists attack German targets across Europe.

 

Possible consequence 4) All of the above

 

Inevitable consequence: European wide recession.

Edited July 7, 2015 by Fardragon

[teknoman2]

I just hope they will finally kick Greece out of eurozone, then they can do their commie experiments on their own and with their own money

half of the greek economists (and many others) were saying from 2009 that greece should leave the eurozone from that time. they kept repeating (and they were right) that you cant fix your economical problems with borrowed money but nobody listened. also, when you owe 100€ YOU have a problem if you cant pay, when you owe 100.000.000.000€ THEY have a problem if you cant pay.

[Fardragon]

If the politicians had listened to the economists Greece wouldn't have been in the Eurozone in the first place...

[teknoman2]

If the politicians had listened to the economists Greece wouldn't have been in the Eurozone in the first place...

with the help of the german and french government at the time, the greek government manipulated/falsified every financial stat possible to get greece in the eurozone, while all of them knew it was simply not viable (and while every honest economist out there warned them not to do it). however germany had much to gain from it and still does. why do you think they talk and talk about grexit but they dont just say "get out of the eurozone and let us all be done with this mess"? they dont want greece out of it... of course they cant kick greece out since the regulations say that "you can quit, but cant get fired", and at one time it may have been about the backlash (that a competent greek government could have used to pressure them) but now it's effect would be minimal since all other EU countries have taken measures against it. nothing keeps them from pushing greece to quit but they dont, because they still have something to gain from the situation.

and let's be honest, if germany was in greece's situation, it would have left the eurozone from the first moment instead of slaving away to get a fix like a junkie.

[Fardragon]

When Germany was in that situation, in 1952, Greece wrote off their debt.

[Enoch]

Well, keep in mind that a large part of the initial pitch for the Euro was political, rather than economic.  That is, it was a further step of the pan-European unity advocates, seeking to mute (or even end) the nationalism that had led to the continent regularly blowing itself the **** up once per generation over the previous few centuries.  It may have been misguided to extend this sentiment into a common currency, and to extend it to relatively peripheral nations like Greece, but the overall motive, for many, was benevolent.  And for those of that line of thought, it should have been obvious that some level of "help" from the richer nations to the poorer nations would be an essential element of the union.  An economically poor idea can still be reasonable policy if it buys you political advantages, say by seriously deterring conflict.

 

The other part of Euro support was on behalf of those who thought it was in their economic best interest.  The export-driven economies who wanted some neo-mercantilist markets; the poorer nations who saw cheap borrowing as their path to modernization.  An economically poor idea can still look like smart policy if it has short-term benefits for you and you think that you can retire before any of the long-term risks come due. 

 

Unfortunately, the reaction to the 2008 financial crisis made it very clear that the Euro was primarily the tool of the economic opportunists.  The Eurozone powers-that-be could have cast blame at the feet of the financial institutions who enabled all this borrowing.  (Or the Euro-treaty rules that allowed those institutions to hold that debt valued on their balance sheets at unreasonably low risk levels.)  They could have poured what relief packages they offered into things like beefing up deposit insurance to keep the citizens reasonably whole while letting the financial institutions holding the bad debt fail.  But instead they chose to protect their friends in the financial industry, stringing the Greek government/economy along with restructuring so that the "important" money would have time and opportunity to get out before the other shoe dropped.  And the result is that it ends up inflaming exactly the kind of nationalistic anger that European integration was supposed to prevent.  

Edited July 7, 2015 by Enoch

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

People keep saying "austerity doesn't work, its been proven " 

 

This is a fundamental and relevant point and one I disagree with. Lets take Spain, yes they still have a high unemployment and high government debt but there economy is on the rebound despite what people like 2133 will  tell you. There banking sector is healthy and they have the one of the fastest growing economies in the EU 

 

http://www.brandonsun.com/business/breaking-news/moodys-raises-outlook-for-spains-banks-to-positive-ending-7-year-negative-rating-308123421.html

 

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/07/02/world/europe/ap-eu-spain-economy.html?_r=0

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/20/spains-improving-economy-is-not-reaching-everyone

Are you seriously using Spain as an example of austerity working? There is over 20% unemployment and real wages have been declining since 2008. If that's austerity working then it doesn't seem to be able to help workers.

 

And then we have Ireland which left the bailout program end of the 2013 and is fastest growing economy in the EU 

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/07/irelands-post-bailout-bonds-blowout/

 

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-to-be-fastest-growing-euro-area-economy-in-2015-1.2062814

 

Ireland also went through difficult austerity and came through stronger despite issues around social security cuts ....so to keep saying " austerity doesn't work"  simply doesn't reflect the reality. I'm not saying its not hard ....but that is not the same thing as saying it doesn't work 

 

 

http://news.yahoo.com/ireland-preparing-lift-austerity-measures-043224486.html;_ylt=A0LEVy9aX5tVqIEABOFXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByMHZ0NG9yBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM3BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

  

 

Ireland has an unemployment rate of 9.7% and real wages have been declining since 2009. Not doing as badly as Italy or Spain is a rather weak achievement.

 

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=AV_AN_WAGE

 

Not to mention the effects the cuts and regressive taxes had on people: http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/irelands-austerity-success-is-no-model-for-greece-340662.html

 

Comparatively we have Iceland which did not pursue austerity and has an unemployment of 4.7%(less than half of Ireland) and has seen real wages increase since 2008.

 

http://www.statice.is/?PageID=1251&src=https://rannsokn.hagstofa.is/pxen/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=VIS04004%26ti=Real+wages%2C+index+1989-2015+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++%26path=../Database/visitolur/launavisitala/%26lang=1%26units=Index/percent

 

It's pretty clear that austerity measures don't help the economy.

 

When Germany was in that situation, in 1952, Greece wrote off their debt.

And that was after Germany attacked Greece and killed a lot of them.

[213374U]

People keep saying "austerity doesn't work, its been proven " 

 

This is a fundamental and relevant point and one I disagree with. Lets take Spain, yes they still have a high unemployment and high government debt but there economy is on the rebound despite what people like 2133 will  tell you. There banking sector is healthy and they have the one of the fastest growing economies in the EU 

 

[...]

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/20/spains-improving-economy-is-not-reaching-everyone

 

 

I love how Bruce keeps posting links that actually disprove the points he's making. He can't read, he's impervious to facts and logic, and yet, despite taking a sound beating in every topic in which he participates, he's never afraid to remind everyone of how ignorant he is. Trollish regeneration at work, I suppose.

 

Why people keep engaging with him is beyond me...

Edited July 7, 2015 by 213374U

[213374U]

And the result is that it ends up inflaming exactly the kind of nationalistic anger that European integration was supposed to prevent.  

 

...for ultimately very similar reasons, I might add. Let's not forget that German big businesses and international financiers (Hello, Mr. Bush. Great day for genocide, wouldn't you agree?) were happy to support Hitler early on.

Edited July 7, 2015 by 213374U

[Chilloutman]

But money poured to Greece are not only German, but Slovakia and Lithuania as well, and those countries are much more poor than Greece, yet they are fiscally responsible. You can't live like millionaire on loans when you earn smidget of your dept

[Monte Carlo]

Answer me this:

 

Greece gets a package to restructure debt that, in effect, allows Spain and Portugal to default and demand the same. EDIT - and stay in the Euro.

 

How do you manage northern Europe and the political reality that Germans, French, Dutch and others have to work harder and pay more taxes so southern Europe can keep on electing student politicians, retiring early and taking siestas? Who is going to vote for pro-European parties?

 

Why would they?

 

Club Med shouldn't be in the Euro. OK, my politics dictate that nobody should be in the Euro, but if you're gonna have one you need analogous economies to share a currency.

Edited July 7, 2015 by Monte Carlo

[Fardragon]

 

People keep saying "austerity doesn't work, its been proven " 

 

This is a fundamental and relevant point and one I disagree with. Lets take Spain, yes they still have a high unemployment and high government debt but there economy is on the rebound despite what people like 2133 will  tell you. There banking sector is healthy and they have the one of the fastest growing economies in the EU 

 

[...]

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/20/spains-improving-economy-is-not-reaching-everyone

 

 

I love how Bruce keeps posting links that actually disprove the points he's making. He can't read, he's impervious to facts and logic, and yet, despite taking a sound beating in every topic in which he participates, he's never afraid to remind everyone of how ignorant he is. 

 

Sounds like a typical politician to me. You know, the people who got us into this mess.

[cirdanx]

 

People keep saying "austerity doesn't work, its been proven " 

 

This is a fundamental and relevant point and one I disagree with. Lets take Spain, yes they still have a high unemployment and high government debt but there economy is on the rebound despite what people like 2133 will  tell you. There banking sector is healthy and they have the one of the fastest growing economies in the EU 

 

http://www.brandonsun.com/business/breaking-news/moodys-raises-outlook-for-spains-banks-to-positive-ending-7-year-negative-rating-308123421.html

 

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/07/02/world/europe/ap-eu-spain-economy.html?_r=0

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/20/spains-improving-economy-is-not-reaching-everyone

Are you seriously using Spain as an example of austerity working? There is over 20% unemployment and real wages have been declining since 2008. If that's austerity working then it doesn't seem to be able to help workers.

 

And then we have Ireland which left the bailout program end of the 2013 and is fastest growing economy in the EU 

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/01/07/irelands-post-bailout-bonds-blowout/

 

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-to-be-fastest-growing-euro-area-economy-in-2015-1.2062814

 

Ireland also went through difficult austerity and came through stronger despite issues around social security cuts ....so to keep saying " austerity doesn't work"  simply doesn't reflect the reality. I'm not saying its not hard ....but that is not the same thing as saying it doesn't work 

 

 

http://news.yahoo.com/ireland-preparing-lift-austerity-measures-043224486.html;_ylt=A0LEVy9aX5tVqIEABOFXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByMHZ0NG9yBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwM3BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--

  

 

Ireland has an unemployment rate of 9.7% and real wages have been declining since 2009. Not doing as badly as Italy or Spain is a rather weak achievement.

 

http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=AV_AN_WAGE

 

Not to mention the effects the cuts and regressive taxes had on people: http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/irelands-austerity-success-is-no-model-for-greece-340662.html

 

Comparatively we have Iceland which did not pursue austerity and has an unemployment of 4.7%(less than half of Ireland) and has seen real wages increase since 2008.

 

http://www.statice.is/?PageID=1251&src=https://rannsokn.hagstofa.is/pxen/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=VIS04004%26ti=Real+wages%2C+index+1989-2015+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++%26path=../Database/visitolur/launavisitala/%26lang=1%26units=Index/percent

 

It's pretty clear that austerity measures don't help the economy.

 

When Germany was in that situation, in 1952, Greece wrote off their debt.

And that was after Germany attacked Greece and killed a lot of them.

 

 

Thanks for pointing that out. Italy, Spain and Portugal are on very wobbly feet and would be in so much trouble if Greece defaults and they would pay for the debt. Irland is an interesting case, they refused and fought against any IMF/ECB help, but in the end they were pressured into it and accepting the money and austerity along with it. Which they clearly didn´t need as they paid most of the money back almost in an instant. Irland was and is not a problem.

 

 

People keep saying "austerity doesn't work, its been proven " 

 

This is a fundamental and relevant point and one I disagree with. Lets take Spain, yes they still have a high unemployment and high government debt but there economy is on the rebound despite what people like 2133 will  tell you. There banking sector is healthy and they have the one of the fastest growing economies in the EU 

 

[...]

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/20/spains-improving-economy-is-not-reaching-everyone

 

 

I love how Bruce keeps posting links that actually disprove the points he's making. He can't read, he's impervious to facts and logic, and yet, despite taking a sound beating in every topic in which he participates, he's never afraid to remind everyone of how ignorant he is. Trollish regeneration at work, I suppose.

 

Why people keep engaging with him is beyond me...

 

 

I do it because it´s funny sometimes, but also frustraiting, he reminds me off smart ass kid, that sounds clever only to himself in his mind, while everyone else is facepalming around him. But you said it also very well

 

..for ultimately very similar reasons, I might add. Let's not forget that German big businesses and international financiers (Hello, Mr. Bush. Great day for genocide, wouldn't you agree?) were happy to support Hitler early on.

 

Not only early on, also during the bigger part of the war. They played him. But there is no chance in my opinion on a war scenario between european states today. Most even have nothing that should be considered an army and would lack any support from the people.

[teknoman2]

But money poured to Greece are not only German, but Slovakia and Lithuania as well, and those countries are much more poor than Greece, yet they are fiscally responsible. You can't live like millionaire on loans when you earn smidget of your dept

the whole point was to eventualy make a big federation like USA where several small countries banded together to make a big one. the problem is that you need to make the federation first, create a unified government and institute a set of laws and policies that are the same for all and then make a common coin for use within the federation.

or Germany may simply be following Rommel's plan on how to make the 4th reich succeed in conquering europe through money instead of war

[Zoraptor]

But money poured to Greece are not only German, but Slovakia and Lithuania as well, and those countries are much more poor than Greece, yet they are fiscally responsible. You can't live like millionaire on loans when you earn smidget of your dept

 

Shrug, collective responsibility, you want the benefits you accept that there won't always be benefits in everything. Like if, say, Russia attacked Lithuania you could get a "sorry bro', you're not worth any Greeks dying over" response from Greece, despite them being in NATO and ignoring their collective responsibility. I bet that would be despicable conduct though, and Completely Different to many people. And as has been pointed out numerous times, the EU has bailed out their banks while labelling it as a bail out of the Greeks- Slovakia and Lithuania have contributed primarily to rescuing French/ German/ Brit/ US banks, not Greece itself which after all is still 420 bn on the hook.

 

Possible consequence 1) Greece goes to Russia, Russia bales them out in exchange for a navel base in the Mediterranean, the Americans get very upset...

 

Possible consequence 2) Greece collapses and currency speculators turn their attention to Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. All four crash out of the Euro. Britain, angered by the treatment of Greece, votes to leave the EU. Confidence in the EU is lost, rules are ignored, member states elect either extreme right or extreme left governments.

 

Possible consequence 3) Greek terrorists attack German targets across Europe.

 

Possible consequence 4) All of the above

 

Inevitable consequence: European wide recession.

Those are possible consequences, but none of those are realistically going to be worse than the consequences of Versailles, World War 2 and the like. The only ones which are likely are bits of 2 and yeah, the Europe wide recession but that has happened before and is/ was also inevitable due to the stupid rules/ fundamentals of the eurozone and rules which near nobody follows. A lot of the stuff which is going on now is not so much about Greece itself, but on shifting the blame to Greece and away from irresponsible lending, rubbish rules that were not followed with the collusion and active participation of nearly every EZ country and the stupidity/ pandering at the heart of the EZ's establishment. It will be interesting to see how history treats this in ten, twenty, fifty years and whether they blame the Greeks or the EZ/ its rules for whatever happens.