Ukraine Discussion

[Zoraptor]

In the end Germany lost because Hitler was an idiot. He made three genuinely good decisions in the whole war, going with Manstein's plan for France and the hedgehogs in late 1941/2, plus appointing Speer. Otherwise it was a litany of stupid, from keeping ideologically pure incompetents (like Goering) in position to constant goal post shifting (eastern front) to reinforcing failure (Tunisia), declaring war on the US, obsession with bigger and greater wonder weapons and turning potential game changers into too little too laters (Me262). That's really all that needs saying

 

It also seems pretty clear that the Russian involvement was a cynical power play and not some sort of humanitarian rescue mission.

 

 

Pretty much all international power politics is cynical power play rather than humanitarian rescue mission, the latter is just to add palatability for the general public. Having said that, the Russian intervention in Ossetia had (at least) as much humanitarian pretension as, say, the NATO intervention in Kosovo had. It's not like if Serbia decided to reintegrate Kosovo that NATO would be all "well now, we'll have to set up an international commission or something to discuss how naughty you're being, hope you Serbs enjoy Pristina in the summer in the meantime though" either.

[Gromnir]

larger strategic failures o' Germany in ww2? is a whole different issue from what woldan and Gromnir were discussing.

 

*shrug*

 

invasion o' the ussr were a horrible notion in retrospect, but is one o' those decisions that need be put in context.  the soviet had invaded finland and, for the most part, got the snot knocked outta them. nazi germany were supplying and aiding finland at the time, so they got a great first-hand view o' soviet military capabilities.  conflict with soviet were deemed to be inevitable, so why not take 'em off the board sooner rather than later? yeah, invade soviet russia were a dumb move, but given what German military commanders had seen o' the soviets during the winter war, the decision to invade were not nearly as suicidal as it gets portrayed.  is many german military decisions that get portrayed as the result o' hitler's lunacy that weren't... weren't simple hitler's decisions and weren't near as stoopid as they is described. as an aside, am surprised to see the continued myth o' the me 262 as a game-changer is still being embraced. the jet were a monstrously fast, and surprisingly agile (at high speeds) fighter, but it were a resource and maintenance hog that failed to meet Germany's actual need for a dependable Long-range fighter.  Germany had a number o' weapons that woulda' been game changers if the world were made o' cardboard, but wars is not won on paper. 

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/putins-year-of-defiance-and-miscalculation-20141217-01129

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/10/03/how-russias-debt-and-currency-markets-could-spiral-into-crisis/

 

dunno, staying on-topic in off-topic is seeming unnecessary, but we will give it a shot.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited December 20, 2014 by Gromnir

[leninghola]

In other news, Putin is in love.

 

Too bad he looks like an ingrown toenail.

[Drowsy Emperor]

Germany never had a chance to win WW2, except, maybe, if it stopped after taking most of Europe. Even that is debatable as the USSR and the US probably would have declared war eventually anyway. Drawing the USSR into the fight as well, and then the Americans, losing was a foregone conclusion.

 

It doesn't matter how good your military is when you're outmatched in both population and industrial production. 

 

Everyone makes mistakes, Hitler did, Stalin did etc. but single mistakes don't make much of a difference in the grand scheme of things. The red army purges prior to the war prove that even the stupidest mistakes can be absorbed.

[213374U]

I should have known better than to open that can of worms...

 

(btw, I totally launch Barbarossa in June 1940 after "liberating" huge amounts of French cheese. For the Fatherland!)

 

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/putins-year-of-defiance-and-miscalculation-20141217-01129

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/10/03/how-russias-debt-and-currency-markets-could-spiral-into-crisis/

 

dunno, staying on-topic in off-topic is seeming unnecessary, but we will give it a shot.

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

I read those. Not sure what I'm supposed to learn aside from some funky idea that Russians are "culturally" inclined to avoid paying up, lol (I must have Russian blood, that would explain the shill accusations). Are those worst case scenarios? Likely outcomes if things continue on the current path? Wishful thinking on the editors' part? What?

Edited December 20, 2014 by 213374U

[Gromnir]

what on earth did you read? wishful thinking? with some extreme few exceptions, a collapse o' russia would hurt everybody. oh, sure, a functional collapse similar to even 1998 will hurt russia more than the united states or even germany, but a collapse o' russia is bad for business... most everybody's business. major US corporations such as Ford does considerable sales in russia, and more then a few American banks have investments in the ruble or have made loans to russia. financial havoc in russia as wishful thinking? what articles are you reading? where is you getting such a notion?

 

the articles does show that the crisis is more serious than the russians pretend and that the troubles is the result o' misfortune AND russian stupidity. 

 

...

 

is amazing what spin folks add to articles based on their own biases.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited December 20, 2014 by Gromnir

[213374U]

Yeah, sorry. I totally forgot that NASDAQ editors are completely free from bias and their pieces have absolutely no political slant. Everyone knows that's exclusive to Obsidianites. On top of that, their predictions are always spot on. Because otherwise, you wouldn't be linking them!

 

Funny. The worst seems to be caused by the drop in oil prices... which is not something that's being (openly) manipulated. Other than their reliance on commodity exports and failure to diversify, how is that Russian stupidity? A serious drop in oil prices would hit any major oil exporter hard, sanctions or not, and that seems to be what's thrown Putin's calculations off. Again, what am I supposed to learn from the articles?

 

(for once try something that isn't cherrypicking. A decade or so of the same drill, it starts to get boring) 

Edited December 20, 2014 by 213374U

[Drowsy Emperor]

Lol @ "russian stupidity". I guess they should have just stood and watched as NATO flipped yet another country and installed military bases on their borders within 2-3 years.

 

The Russians are trying to make the best of a disastrous situation, but that situation was created by the US and is sustained by the US.

US officials in Ukraine were caught on tape discussing their part in the events that transpired, the costs of the entire endeavor and juicily ended that particular conversation with "**** the EU" which just goes to show how much a factor the EU is in anything. So there can be no talk of conspiracy at this point.

 

Besides, even as the conflict wound down the "EU" kept the sanctions up - most likely to buy time for a spring offensive by the Ukrainian "government". If a complete halt of the war came to be, Poroshenko would have to accept the current front lines as new borders of sorts - regional, federal or otherwise. And Poroshenko can't hold on to power in Ukraine unless he makes an effort to take that part of the country back with military force. The current climate in Kiev is one of wartime frenzy and a loser's peace isn't a real option. So every promise of "ceasefire" from his camp is in fact a time buying tactic. 

 

Outside Ukraine the US in particular wants the conflict to go on. Obama has signed for new military aid: http://www.ibtimes.com/us-russia-relations-obama-signs-bill-giving-weapons-ukraine-allowing-economic-1763106 and what is that, if not an attempt to keep the war and sanctions in place?

 

Yes it would be bad for some US businesses for Russia to implode, but that's not the goal anyway. The goal is to destabilize Russia by creatin a climate where Putin is "unacceptable" in the business circles, alienating his elite from him, and then helping them fund a "revolution" to put a puppet in the Kremlin. The potential political and economic gain out of this is immense, and currently the costs for the US to keep this thing going are trivial.

 

The costs are not trivial for some EU countries but they are (treated as) third rate citizens within the community with no say in the matter as Germany, UK and France run the show. 

[Gromnir]

amused.

 

yeah, russian stupidity is in large part to blame. there has been little attempt to diversify the russian economy since putin came into power. even putin has finally admitted the need to modernize the economy in light o' the present crisis. 15 years too late to make that change, eh? furthermore, the initial sanctions were the result o' russian intransigence and predation... but no doubt such actions get a different spin in russsia. writers at wsj  and nasdaq (the nasdaq article were actually originally printed in wsj, but we couldn't link for those without a subscription) don't care much 'bout politics save for the impact on money... is one reason why wsj is our primary news source. investors don't so much want or need to hear spin.  so... back to the topic at hand... following western sanctions, in an act o' unrivaled idiocy, russia attempts sanctions o' their own on western foodstuffs, which predictably made russian problems worse as the typical russian already spends a far greater % o' their income on food than does westerners.  this all happened before the tanking o' oil prices btw.  the russian economy were already heading towards recession when putin comes up with the brain fart move o' trying to impose sanctions o' his own. the article(s) then observes how putin dealt with pro-russian supporters in the west following the malaysia air incident. moron. etc.

 

yeah, russian stupidity were/is a large part o' the problem.

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps please note our post at the top o' this page. you can go back and look at posts from Before tanking oil. what has happened to the russian economy were not unexpected even by the largely clueless posters on these boards. 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Gromnir

[213374U]

Ughhh... I'm not even going to touch the "Russian intransigence and predation" bit. Pointless as this is, what, the fourth iteration of this thread? w/e

 

Regardless, it looks like I was wrong. Oil prices are being manipulated, as openly as the nov OPEC meeting.

 

btw, thanks for the "unbiased" wsj sales pitch... bad afternoon at work so I needed the laugh.

Edited December 20, 2014 by 213374U

[Drowsy Emperor]

intransigence and predation indeed

 

I'm going to put this as short as possible:

 

1. predation: investing several million dollars to oust a legally elected president of a foreign country for political, military and economic gain

2. intransigence: insisting that everyone complies with the new status quo or "suffer the consequences", even when they cannot for vital security reasons

Edited December 20, 2014 by Drowsy Emperor

[Zoraptor]

Why respond at all? He's pretty obviously just spoiling for a fight, and in that respect he's definitely the Monty Python Black Knight- doesn't matter how many bits you chop off he won't stop and will always insist he's winning.

[Gromnir]

Ughhh... I'm not even going to touch the "Russian intransigence and predation" bit. Pointless as this is, what, the fourth iteration of this thread? w/e

 

Regardless, it looks like I was wrong. Oil prices are being manipulated, as openly as the nov OPEC meeting.

 

btw, thanks for the "unbiased" wsj sales pitch... bad afternoon at work so I needed the laugh.

of course you don't wanna touch the predation bit. wsj don't care who were right or wrong regarding crimea, but the western sanctions that followed were predictable. right v. wrong is complete separate from the question o' whether russian actions were stupid. putin stupidity related to malaysian air made it so that even the pro-russian western governments lobbied for harsher sanctions. and your amusement regarding wsj don't change the fact that any yutz with even high school level comprehension o' economics could see just how vulnerable the russian economy were given its near complete dependence on petroleum exports. 

 

...

 

is honestly shocking to see just how hard folks will ignore reality regarding russian economic woes. honestly, all you gotta do is go back six or seven months in this thread and you will see who were being obtuse and who were predicting just what has happened. can go back further than that if you wish. there ain't no big surprises. 

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Drowsy Emperor]

In events regarding legal disputes he can usually provide a fairly informed and balanced argument. I guess I was trying to discern whether the root of what he was saying lies in ignorance or ideological bias. 

[Gromnir]

In events regarding legal disputes he can usually provide a fairly informed and balanced argument. I guess I was trying to discern whether the root of what he was saying lies in ignorance or ideological bias. 

*sigh*

 

am understanding your attempt to ignore reality, but as we said, your subjective notions o' right v. wrong regarding russian behavior is wasted. Gromnir ain't referencing right v. wrong. the west reacted predictably to russian actions with sanctions, regardless o' whether you thinks putin were just and right and noble or not.  

 

this crisis were all very predictable and very avoidable. 'course the biggest example o' russian stupidity were the one that is gonna take decades to fix. an economy near complete dependent on a single resource is extreme vulnerable. maybe this is the wake-up call the russians needed? dunno. given the recent history o' russian stupidity...

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Drowsy Emperor]

Precisely the point is that the political crisis wasn't avoidable. When Yanukovich fell their options were limited, an asymmetric and drastic response became necessary and it was either what transpired or something even more drastic such as a full out invasion of Ukraine. This is neither noble nor just, merely a logical and predictable outcome given what Ukraine means to their national security.

They had to act, therefore they have to endure the sanctions for as long as necessary.

 

Mistakes made in the economic arena have no bearing on the entirely political events leading up to this crisis, even if they are a factor now.

 

Its possible to argue that letting the situation in Ukraine develop on its own up until the putsch was stupid, and I'd even agree with that, but everything that came afterwards was pure necessity. 

Edited December 20, 2014 by Drowsy Emperor

[Gromnir]

 

 

Mistakes made in the economic arena have no bearing on the entirely political events leading up to this crisis, even if they are a factor now.

 

 

ridiculous and utterly myopic.  how on earth can you even suggest such a thing with any degree o' seriousness?  as to your nonsense about "pure necessity..." HA! hell, the same reasoning can be used by folks in the west regarding sanctions. same reasoning has been used, badly, to explain US involvement or non-involvement in any number of foreign debacles. call something "necessary" absolves you o' all sins or stupidity, eh?

 

am understanding why zor is afraid to do so, but drowsy should go back to july and august in this thread. it will be useful to you to see just how utterly predictable this situation were even to a bunch o' geeks posting on a game development board. 

 

btw, Gromnir were never a fan o' sanctions as the means to respond to russian actions. we noted that there likely no better option available to the west in 2014, but we didn't like sanctions. the food sanctions imposed by russia were laughable as they were seeming designed to hurt russia more than the west (wacky) but we has always been concerned that the russian economy is too freaking fragile. petroleum is the russian economy. to make matters worse, russian entrepreneurs and investors are notoriously fickle-- they will yank out their money and invest in foreign ventures at the first sign o' trouble. etc. western sanctions were designed to hurt russia, but you got sanctions aimed at a complete bass ackwards economy that were already on the brink o' recession... with a moron at the helm o' the country.  the food sanctions were just sorta so over-the-top idiotic that it were near impossible to laugh away putin nonsense any further. 

 

but again, the biggest and most obvious fail is 15 years o' allowing the russian economy to be complete driven by a single volatile commodity.  in spite o' various booms and busts during putin reign in russia, no genuine attempt has been made to develop the russian economy beyond its singular dependence on petroleum. how you can look at the current russian financial crisis and Not blame much o' the problems on russian stupidity is actual a bit mind-boggling.  

 

HA! Good Fun!

[obyknven]

This thread become boring.

Ukrainian dream.

 

Ukrainian reality.

[BruceVC]

 

 

 

Mistakes made in the economic arena have no bearing on the entirely political events leading up to this crisis, even if they are a factor now.

 

 

ridiculous and utterly myopic.  how on earth can you even suggest such a thing with any degree o' seriousness?  as to your nonsense about "pure necessity..." HA! hell, the same reasoning can be used by folks in the west regarding sanctions. same reasoning has been used, badly, to explain US involvement or non-involvement in any number of foreign debacles. call something "necessary" absolves you o' all sins or stupidity, eh?

 

am understanding why zor is afraid to do so, but drowsy should go back to july and august in this thread. it will be useful to you to see just how utterly predictable this situation were even to a bunch o' geeks posting on a game development board. 

 

btw, Gromnir were never a fan o' sanctions as the means to respond to russian actions. we noted that there likely no better option available to the west in 2014, but we didn't like sanctions. the food sanctions imposed by russia were laughable as they were seeming designed to hurt russia more than the west (wacky) but we has always been concerned that the russian economy is too freaking fragile. petroleum is the russian economy. to make matters worse, russian entrepreneurs and investors are notoriously fickle-- they will yank out their money and invest in foreign ventures at the first sign o' trouble. etc. western sanctions were designed to hurt russia, but you got sanctions aimed at a complete bass ackwards economy that were already on the brink o' recession... with a moron at the helm o' the country.  the food sanctions were just sorta so over-the-top idiotic that it were near impossible to laugh away putin nonsense any further. 

 

but again, the biggest and most obvious fail is 15 years o' allowing the russian economy to be complete driven by a single volatile commodity.  in spite o' various booms and busts during putin reign in russia, no genuine attempt has been made to develop the russian economy beyond its singular dependence on petroleum. how you can look at the current russian financial crisis and Not blame much o' the problems on russian stupidity is actual a bit mind-boggling.  

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

 

You have made some good points and offered some valid insights on this matter Gromnir. I differ from you in the sense I have always maintained that sanctions are the most realistic, necessary and appropriate punitive measures that the West can implement.

 

I agree that Putin created this achilles heel for the Russian economy over the fact they base 60 % -70 %  (? ) of their economy on exports and particularly energy exports. When the oil price dropped this would have understandably dragged down the Ruble and the economy. This is the main reason for the current Russian  economic crisis and this has NOTHING to do with the West, this was bad planning by Putin and his economic advisors for not diversifying the Russian economy 

 

But the Western sanctions exacerbated the conditions because Russian businesses now battle to raised foreign investment and capital and there is an alarming outflow from Russia from prominent and influential  global fund managers who will rather take their clients money to less riskier climates. You also have this panic situation in Russia because Russian people are dumping the Ruble for Dollars

 

Its funny but when I mentioned months ago that the sanctions would impact the Russian economy people like 2133 and Zora told me I didn't know what I was talking about and I had a false sense of reality

 

I wonder what they now think about sanctions 

[213374U]

This is the main reason for the current Russian  economic crisis and this has NOTHING to do with the West, this was bad planning by Putin and his economic advisors for not diversifying the Russian economy 

 

[...]

 

Its funny but when I mentioned months ago that the sanctions would impact the Russian economy people like 2133 and Zora told me I didn't know what I was talking about and I had a false sense of reality

 

I wonder what they now think about sanctions 

 

 

So, by your own admission, the main cause of the Russian crisis is the oil prices drop. But six months ago, you were able to secretly predict that the Russian economy would be devastated by sanctions... and an oil price crash which hadn't happened yet. Let me guess: you are a wsj subscriber.

Edited December 21, 2014 by 213374U

[BruceVC]

 

This is the main reason for the current Russian  economic crisis and this has NOTHING to do with the West, this was bad planning by Putin and his economic advisors for not diversifying the Russian economy 

 

[...]

 

Its funny but when I mentioned months ago that the sanctions would impact the Russian economy people like 2133 and Zora told me I didn't know what I was talking about and I had a false sense of reality

 

I wonder what they now think about sanctions 

 

 

So, by your own admission, the main cause of the Russian crisis is the oil prices drop. But six months ago, you were able to secretly predict that the Russian economy would be devastated by sanctions... and an oil price crash which hadn't happened yet. Let me guess: you are a wsj subscriber.

 

 

No I have no real powers of prognostication but it should have been obvious to everyone that sanctions would hurt any economy, the Russian one included

 

But I didn't think the economic impact to Russia would happen this quick but thats because no one predicted the oil price crash and the impact that  would have on certain countries around there questionable  internal economic structures

 

I obviously reject conspiracy theories but if I did believe in them I would say the falling oil price has directly hurt countries like Russia, Venezuela and Iran the most and those are countries that have the most  tension on various levels with the West

 

 So you could almost believe that the West was involved in the falling oil price as it suits their political agenda. But of course this isn't true 

[Drowsy Emperor]

Altogether too much is made of the Russian crisis, as if the Russians haven't been through far worse. Serbia is a tiny country but it endured years of western sanctions, while fighting a war, without any of the considerable advantages the Russians have in natural resources, reserves, alternative trade partners - anything really. One adjusts and gets by. Its not even worth discussing.

 

 

Yesterday the Austrian chancellor spoke against a new round of sanctions:

 

 

"I cannot approve of the euphoria of many in the EU over the success of sanctions against Russia. I see absolutely no cause for celebration. I do not know why we should be pleased if the Russian economy collapses," Faymann told the Oesterreich newspaper.

"We would be sawing off the branch we are sitting on if we erected a new wall to Russia's economy," the Social Democrat who heads Austria's coalition government said in remarks released ahead of publication on Sunday.

 

Common sense really. At least someone in the EU has it.

[BruceVC]

Altogether too much is made of the Russian crisis, as if the Russians haven't been through far worse. Serbia is a tiny country but it endured years of western sanctions, while fighting a war, without any of the considerable advantages the Russians have in natural resources, reserves, alternative trade partners - anything really. One adjusts and gets by. Its not even worth discussing.

 

 

Yesterday the Austrian chancellor spoke against a new round of sanctions:

 

 

"I cannot approve of the euphoria of many in the EU over the success of sanctions against Russia. I see absolutely no cause for celebration. I do not know why we should be pleased if the Russian economy collapses," Faymann told the Oesterreich newspaper.

"We would be sawing off the branch we are sitting on if we erected a new wall to Russia's economy," the Social Democrat who heads Austria's coalition government said in remarks released ahead of publication on Sunday.

 

Common sense really. At least someone in the EU has it.

 

It would be common sense if it was true but its not so its moot 

 

No one is trying to crash the Russian economy, this suits no one. The sanctions are punitive measures to get Russia to rethink its interference in Ukraine. Thats all Russia needs to do, stop getting involved in Ukraine and supporting the separatists. And then we can discuss Crimea

[Drowsy Emperor]

Its not true because... you have a better grasp on EU politics than the Austrian chancellor? 

Edited December 21, 2014 by Drowsy Emperor

[HoonDing]

Sounds like a commie spy.