Ukraine Discussion

[Agiel]

 

East Ukraine Cease-fire Deal Reached

It's not going to last... like the other half-dozen before it...

 

 

Apparently with the arrival of Russian troops on vacation with their T-72s and SA-22 Greyhound "rental vehicles" (I suppose for the latter some are incapable of learning lessons), there has been a crackdown of on rebel militias that were wont to act on their own, particularly the ones who were most active during the previous "cease fire", with a number of the leaders being captured or killed. Some were also killed by pro-Kiev artillery, with them blaming the Russian leadership for deliberately pushing them into "firetraps" in an effort to put the kibosh on their efforts to act independently in the future (not entirely dissimilar to when the Red Army on entering Ukraine in 1944 leaving the anti-German partisans to the devices of the NKVD or using them as cannon fodder).

 

The reason is obvious. Putin wants a deal that lasts. He expected Donbass to go the way of Crimea, but in this he gravely miscalculated and he got a conflict lasting the better part of a year and thousands killed (including nearly 300 innocent people on a Triple Seven) instead. Putin may enjoy record approval ratings now in spite of the onset of a severe recession, but even that may prove fleeting without any effort to change gears (recall the fever pitch support behind Bush in the aftermath of 9/11). And as Rostere has said so many times before, the economic penalties would severely compromise Russia's ability to modernise its conventional military forces. Sure Russia has a credible nuclear deterrent (and spends ample effort in reminding the world of that fact, most notably the recent Tu-95 transit to the English Channel), but nuclear weapons are politically inflexible weapons, and there's zero evidence out there that suggests there are things outside of Russia's borders that Putin is willing to blow up the whole world up for.

Edited February 13, 2015 by Agiel

[Gromnir]

zor doesn't seem to get that sugar is an example. is a good example 'cause it is something russians use every freaking day. he also don't recall the information we posted earlier in this thread about how much more russians spend on food than does westerners. russians spend 1/3 of income on food, on average.  westerners, on average, spend 10% or less. want us to go through list of staples that has increased since russia imposed sanctions?  is pretty much everything imported, 'cause ruble has been devalued. wheat? up to 30% increase. those tough russians can do without that too, yes? russians is so tough that they can eat shoe leather soup and smile about it.  'course, given the value o' the ruble, we expect that shoe leather has increased in price even more than sugar, chicken, wheat and everything else.

 

and yeah, oil prices is the chief reason russia is hurting, but it ain't the chief cause. russian stoopidity is, 'cause this were all predictable and fixable, particularly given that a smaller version o' this crisis occurred in 2008. the economic geniuses posting in this thread (HA!) saw this coming a mile away, but russians didn't?  of course they did, but they figured they could weather the storm as they did in 2008, but oil has dropped more this time and it is likely gonna stay lower than $80 per barrel for a considerable amount o' time... or at least that is what world bank guesses.

 

the current scenario, albeit less bleak, is exactly what Gromnir and others predicted LAST year when we were all posting those lovely export/economy graphics that showed just how dependent Russia is on oil. it is an extreme fragile economy. you didn't pay attention then, and now you act as if the oil situation were unpredictable.  

 

oh, and a similar situation happened in 2008, but oil prices don't appear to be turning around as they did back then. as many journalists is predicting end o' this year as they is predicting year 18 months... is not exact science. "With so many moving parts, coming to a view as to how long reserves might last for is almost impossible," wrote Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. even so,

 

"Last year, for example, the Central Bank of Russia said it had shelled out more than $80 billion to shore up the value of the ruble on currency markets. “If oil prices stay low, under $70 per barrel, they are going to run out of money sooner rather than later,” Mr. Rogoff  (a former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, not a journalist) said.  

 

wsj is guessing 6 months to a year if oil prices stay sub $70 per barrel, which seems likely at the moment. as many is guessing less time as opposed to more.

 

russian Business owe $600 billion to western banks and because of sanctions they can't re-fi. the ruble is worth increasingly little, so beyond the russian government's other problems, they is soon gonna have to need to decide which russian business is needed to be saved.  new heightened interest rates which were a myopic attempt to prop the rubble, will result in likely recession even After oil prices increase. 

 

oh, and russian reserves were over $550 billion in mid 2013.  even before the drop in oil, russia were heading for a recessions... which were also something Gromnir and others pointed out in this thread.  

 

go back and look at thread and your most amusing responses.

 

http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1476761

 

silliness.

 

russian fail is good for nobody, but it were predictable, and it is coming... "sooner rather than later."

 

HA! Good Fun!

[pmp10]

ceasefire, even if it holds, is likely too little and too late to slow the growing economic crisis in russia. if were only russians that would suffer from economic woes, we wouldn't mind. oh well.

 

HA! Good Fun!

And what would you call Ukrainian economic situation then?

Last I heard they were even worse off.

[obyknven]

Meanwhile in Russia. By results of Internet wars during Ukrainian conflict Russian government decide make free access  to Internet for citizens of Russia. Ave for Emperor!

Yep, this is mean moar of Russian trolls in Western Internets.

[Gromnir]

 

ceasefire, even if it holds, is likely too little and too late to slow the growing economic crisis in russia. if were only russians that would suffer from economic woes, we wouldn't mind. oh well.

 

HA! Good Fun!

And what would you call Ukrainian economic situation then?

 

irrelevant?

 

is a terrible reality that the dismal state of the ukranian economy has far fewer global ramifications than does the impending fail of russia.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Zoraptor]

Top quote is from Grommy's previous post.

 

but this nonsense is from guy who were trying to convince us that russian food sanctions were gonna hurt west more than russia, so we ain't surprised

 

yep, someone is speaking nonsense, but it ain't me. You're also woefully... innaccurate, shall we say, on the reason for the large food price increases, as I will illustrate below.

 

zor doesn't seem to get that sugar is an example. is a good example 'cause it is something russians use every freaking day

 

 

Yes, such a good example. Along with oats/ porridge you picked two things that Russia produces massive amounts of domestically, and the one you chose to focus on is a luxury item. OK, not a luxury in the US where it's added to everything under the sun since high fructose corn syrup is cheaper than water, but you don't actually need to do that and it isn't actually a staple- it's just corporate welfare that is coincidentally killing rather a lot of people from obesity related diseases. In any case you picked the examples, I didn't, and they're supposed to help your point, not mine. That they were stupid examples that don't illustrate what you thought they did is not my fault, it's yours because you picked them.

 

want us to go through list of staples that has increased since russia imposed sanctions?  is pretty much everything imported, 'cause ruble has been devalued. wheat? up to 30% increase. those tough russians can do without that too, yes? russians is so tough that they can eat shoe leather soup and smile about it.  'course, given the value o' the ruble, we expect that shoe leather has increased in price even more than sugar, chicken, wheat and everything else.

 

 

Meh, your shtick is making you literally incoherent.

 
Let us do an illustration- it's simplistic, but it'll do as an illustration. Russia sells oats at the market price, $1000 a ton. Its exchange rate is 50/USD. The producer gets 50000 roubles. Now, the exchange rate is 100/USD. The producer gets 100000 roubles for exporting it. If, instead, it was imported from the west --------it would still cost 100000 roubles-------- as that is governed by exchange rate. It would cost exactly the same and thus counter sanctions make no effective difference because import prices link to exchange rate. The domestic price might theoretically stay the same, except, of course, they can now export it for twice the amount, hence domestic price increases. And wow, 30% price increase for wheat over 50% currency devaluation, that's less than expected if they were importing wheat- another stellar example you've picked for yourself.

 

To reiterate: if they were importing from Europe it would not help because the exchange rate would still increase prices 50% (~per reality) or 100% per example.

 

And the currency collapse doing the damage was related to the drop in oil prices, not agricultural sanctions on the west- even you admit that.
 

the current scenario, albeit less bleak, is exactly what Gromnir and others predicted LAST year when we were all posting those lovely export/economy graphics that showed just how dependent Russia is on oil. it is an extreme fragile economy. you didn't pay attention then, and now you act as if the oil situation were unpredictable.  

 

Nope, I said that economic sanctions would not severely impact Russia. The oil price is independent of the sanctions and unrelated to them, it's Saudi taking a dump on frackers.

 

I am, however, sure you'll provide a link to where I said that later in your post. Indeed, I'll reorganise the quotes so your link follows

 

go back and look at thread and your most amusing responses.
 
http://forums.obsidian.net/topic/66281-ongoing-discussion-of-ukraine/?p=1476761

 

Y'know, I was actually expecting this to be a link at least to one of my posts, or at least one of yours I replied to- instead it's to one of your posts showing your (to be charitable) cognitive dissonance has lasted six months and the only relevant post by me within pages is before yours and says nothing at all about oil prices or Russia's dependence on them but is about the agricultural counter sanctions. 

 

wsj is guessing 6 months to a year if oil prices stay sub $70 per barrel, which seems likely at the moment. as many is guessing less time as opposed to more.

 

Oh my god, the WSJ, that changes everything! Scales fall from my eyes and I repent my apostacy and beg forgiveness at the altar of Rupert!

 

The cite I made was two years just on their liquid assets, and it isn't anywhere near pro Russian, and there are multiple, non Russian sources saying the same, eg Moody's.

 

Murdoch's Yellow Journalism.

 

russian Business owe $600 billion to western banks and because of sanctions they can't re-fi. the ruble is worth increasingly little, so beyond the russian government's other problems, they is soon gonna have to need to decide which russian business is needed to be saved.  new heightened interest rates which were a myopic attempt to prop the rubble, will result in likely recession even After oil prices increase. 

 

 

Right, so let's say that the consequence of not being able to refinance those loans is that Russian firms default. So, when Euros are packing their pants about Greece defaulting on ~550 odd billion somehow 600 billion is chump change that won't effect them because Gromnir says such things will only effect Russia... Hmm, OK.

 

oh, and russian reserves were over $550 billion in mid 2013.

 

 

Right, so they've declined ~$150 billion over 18 months, plus about 20 billion over the past two months (pending updates), so fairly steadily. I can see how you think they'll run out of money in six further months on that trend with 'only' $380 billion left, because 6x10 does, after all, equal 380.

 

Sheesh, even at double that rate it's still 18 months worth of reserves. And still has most to do with oil prices and currency speculation (fuelled by Yellow Journalism talking things down, heh) and little to nothing to do with the counter sanctions.

[Gromnir]

my aren't you obtuse. we keep saying that the russian economic crisis/collapse is terrible because it will indeed affect more than just russians. am wondering how many more posts you need read before that sinks in enough that you actual remember it.

 

and we s'pose that any harvard, imf or world bank economist who is quoted in wsj or nyt or reuteurs is counting as yellow journalism. *chuckle* is funny and delusional, but knock yourself out with that.

 

"Russia's $388 billion cash hoard fell by almost a quarter over 2014, although the free float of the rouble that saw it fall so spectacularly late last year has reduced the amounts drained in support of the currency. Strip out the money in the government's rainy day funds, gold and IMF drawing rights and the number is estimated by some to be well below $200 billion."

 

that one is reuteurs, and they is the more optimistic folks.

 

"According to data and research compiled by PISM, Russia’s decision to ban food imports from the EU in response to the sanctions will put a dent in the wallets of shoppers eyeing up a traditional roast pork supper. Moscow’s ban on EU pork imports will make a meat joint as much as 15 per cent more expensive, while another ban on Polish apple imports could push apple prices up by as much as 40 per cent as domestic stocks become scarce – a jump that could push headline inflation up as much as 0.8 per cent."

 

"Russia imports about 40 percent of its food, so price increases hit hardest at the grocery store.

 

"In addition, Russia banned most food imports from the United States and the European Union in retaliation for Western sanctions. That drove food prices even higher because it created shortages.

 

"Some regions, such as Russia's Far East, are more dependent on imports, and prices for some items, such as chicken, shot up by as much as 60 percent when the ban was announced."

 

is npr.  and again, please note that russians  backwards arse economy has individual russians spending more on food that westerners, so food sanctions is disproportionate hurting russians.  and yeah, the predictable possibility o' a drop in oil made sanctions on food all the more o' a potential problem. duh.  keep trying to separate oil from food and all the other russian blunders if you wish, but they is all interconnected... just as Gromnir and others were suggesting last june.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/02/11/is-russias-economy-rebalancing-in-the-face-of-western-sanctions-not-really/

 

sadly, after food sanctions and because of the poverty o' the russian economy, the rate o' food production actual slowed in 2014 as 'posed to previous years.

 

we can keep posting such, but is all yellow journalism, so what is the point, eh?

 

russian stupidity created this crisis.  the russian government were fully aware of its over-dependence on oil. Gromnir and others in this thread observed BEFORE the drop in oil prices that the current situation were possible given how fragile the russian economy and how dependent it is on oil exports... any measurable change in oil prices can be disastrous for the russians, and to compound that fragility with self-imposed food sanctions were bordering on insanity. check the dates on our linked post.

 

well, sure enough, there were a drop in oil and sure enough the russian economy went into a free-fall and sure enough the price o' necessary foodstuffs increased and sure enough the russians made the problem worse by bolstering business friendly to putin and raising interest rates so that the crisis will last far beyond a resurrection o' oil prices.

 

russia got a warning in 2008. they didn't heed the very clear and painful warning.

 

is getting repetitive and silly reply/quote will again have you posting self into insensibility.

 

and one more, 'cause you is too obtuse to notice the half dozen times it has been mentioned already, the impending russian fail is gonna hurt everybody.  the only reason we care is 'cause russian fail will have far-reaching effects.  go back and actual read the linked posts and the posts that follow. our fear were that given the fragile nature o' the russian economy, we were worried that sanctions would lead to a collapse o' the rsussian economy which would hurt... everybody. russians will be hurt more than polish and far more that US, but german auto makers and french (HA!) arms dealers and many other folks is gonna suffer.  not as bad as russians is gonna hurt, but that is cold comfort.

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps  we gotta add 'cause is so funny. when questioned about the seeming ineffectual russian response to the growing economic crisis, russian deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalo, said that russians would eat less food and use less electricity.

 

...

 

that's the plan.

Edited February 13, 2015 by Gromnir

[obyknven]

ITT Western butthurt detected.

 

 

Removed a pic with the 'c' word in it. 

 

~ Gorgon.

[Malcador]

It says it begins Sunday so I guess they have until then to get any last hits in

Violence has picked up, funny how ceasefires always do that. But here's hoping it will last, next step is the West arming random people to fight and that's worked out quite well in recent years, heh.

[obyknven]

Lol, Ukrainian con man fool stupid Murican government.

 

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/exclusive-photos-show-russian-military-in-ukraine-arming-separatists/

 

 

Sen. Inhofe said in a statement: “The Ukrainian parliament members who gave us these photos in print form as if it came directly from a camera really did themselves a disservice. We felt confident to release these photos because the images match the reporting of what is going on in the region. I was furious to learn one of the photos provided now appears to be falsified from an AP photo taken in 2008. This doesn’t change the fact that there is plenty of evidence Russia has made advances into the country with T-72 tanks and that pro-Russian separatists have been killing Ukrainians in cold blood.”

Rosie Gray of Buzzfeed has the list of members of the Ukrainian delegation that duped Senator Inhofe here. “None of the Ukrainians on the list are particularly well known to Westerners and the list does not include high-level government officials,” Gray reports. The Washington Free Beacon regrets the error.

[Gromnir]

this topic has become surreal. last summer you got Gromnir and others saying that western sanctions imposed on russia for perceived predation in the ukraine would hurt.  we noted at that time that the russian economy were already headed toward recession and that an economy such as russia's, one reliant in large part on oil exports, were not only fragile but particular vulnerable to sanctions. with all the debt russian business owed to western banks, sanctions would be particular painful in a time o' recession. Gromnir and others worry that given how fragile the russian economy is, the west will suffer if russia takes too great a hit from sanctions.

 

bester, zor, drowsy and others respond: nope

 

russia then self-imposes food sanctions, which Gromnir and others observe is kinda crazy.  after all, the aforementioned western sanctions would already be hurting russia and russians import 40% o' their food.  not only that, russians, on average, spend 30%-35% o' their income on food.  we compared to a flat tax on essential goods here in the west, but observed that russia were taxing self w/o actual collecting money.  to self-impose food sanctions on top o' western sanctions were bordering on ludicrous.  we wonder if russia's economy can handle increased self-sanctions when they is already vulnerable to western sanctions.  we worry that russian suffering will result in at least some western hardship.

 

bester, zor, drowsy and other respond:  west will be hurt more by food sanctions.

 

move calendar forward forward 8-10 months. oil prices has indeed dropped, exposing russian over-reliance on oil. russia has already had to use a considerable percentage o' their reserves and in spite o' the fact that russians ridiculous raised interest rates, russians is not buying russian goods such as cars, the sales of which is down already 24% since december. oil prices is not expected to be anywhere near +$80 a barrel during the next 12 months.  in 2008, russia blew through over $200 billion in reserves in five months, and situation were seeming less dire at that time.  and again, the dropping oil price issue is something russia has had to face before, but they still haven't modernized and diversified their economy.  this time they gotta deal with sanctions and unhlepful western banks and self-imposed sanctions.

 

the terrible part o' the situation is that russian stupidity is gonna be felt in western economies. sure, wont be near as bad as russians have it, but there is more than a few major western companies doing business in russia.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/10/03/how-russias-debt-and-currency-markets-could-spiral-into-crisis/

 

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/putins-year-of-defiance-and-miscalculation-20141217-01129

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/fault-for-the-rubles-collapse-lies-with-mr-putin/2014/12/16/3f9a8a1a-8548-11e4-a702-fa31ff4ae98e_story.html?tid=gravity_1.0_strip_2

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

 

zor and others:  everything is fine. nothing to see here. the problems in russia have nothing to do with western sanctions but is a momentary blip caused by drop in oil. yellow journalism. conspiracies.  etc.

 

surreal.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Zoraptor]

my aren't you obtuse.

 

That's called projection, bro.

 

I replied to your points and refuted them, you didn't quote my replies because you have nothing to refute with. You picked stupid examples. You asserted that the import bans were hurting Russia more than Europe using the most shonky of logic and not taking the most basic of factors into account; you asserted that Russia would run out of reserves in six months because it's the worst case scenario from a hack piece. You've done it to yourself.

 

And yeah, it is Yellow Journalism when they do things like, on one hand, talk about a large currency devaluation while implying prices would still be the same if they were importing. Because obviously, if they are importing whether non sanctioned Chinese pork or US/ Dutch/ Canadian the price increase of the imported pork would be governed by exchange rate. That's barely even economics 101 and I can only assume it is done deliberately because the alternative is that the writers for wsj forbes etc are utter, abject morons. Or maybe so US centric that they've forgotten there are exchange rates or... well, I don't know at all. None of the interpretations are charitable though.

[Gromnir]

denial is Not refuting, and label any source you dislike as yellow journalism is... pathetic.

 

obtuse, at the very least.  last year Gromnir and others pointed out that what is currently happening to the russian economy, which is pretty dire according to pretty much any economist outside o' russia, and even a few in russia, could happen.  you chose to delude self then.  delude self about the current level o' seriousness too?  okie dokie, but you ain't fooling anybody but those conspiracy nutters such as yourself.

 

oh, and maybe you read a few Alexei Kudrin prognostications and comments?  as a russian, he need obviously be careful with being too critical o' putin, but he blames 40% o' the devaluation o' the ruble on western sanctions. he also admits that russia is in crisis.

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d8bf5266-89cb-11e4-9dbf-00144feabdc0.html

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/24/us-russia-crisis-davos-kudrin-idUSKBN0KX0F920150124

 

http://www.sptimes.ru/story/41515

 

sad and surreal.

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited February 13, 2015 by Gromnir

[Zoraptor]

So far- for some reason- you've linked to what you've said only and the sole semi relevant post by me nearby was stating that Russian counter sanctions would have minimal effect on Russia and more on the producers sanctioned. Which you have spectacularly and utterly failed to show was incorrect. All you're doing now is mere assertion that I said something you want me to have said. I see no reason to respond to your strawmanning with anything other than simply ignoring it. It is, after all, quite easy to use the 'quote' function or links to show what someone actually said, indeed I do so below. You want to show what I actually said instead of what Grommy's mind version of zor said- then I'll defend or clarify my views.

 

So let's recap what you've actually and provably said before you started, again, digging up the goalposts and shifting them/ making assertions with no proof.

 

at current rate of spending, and given that the russian economy were tuned to 100 dollar per barrel oil prices, that $376 billion lasts anywhere from 6 months to a year.

 

 

At current rate of spending- your words, not mine; your fault, not mine- reserves will last far, far longer because the current burn rate is around 10 billion a month and they have 376 billion in reserves. I'd be perfectly happy with the general consensus of 18 months to 2 years, but you had to go all in on hyperbole- even when given the opportunity to clarify you doubled down, cutting it to the least optimistic six months. Followed by

 

talk 'bout unclear on the concept, but this nonsense is from guy who were trying to convince us that russian food sanctions were gonna hurt west more than russia, so we ain't surprised.  brazil and china is preventing that 40% increase in sugar prices?

 

 

laughable economic ignorance about the exchange rate's effects, utterly laughable. That it is apparently mirrored by 'experts' is no real excuse- it just shows a lack of critical faculty and need to appeal to/ kowtow to authority. Fundamentally, you have to show how having western food imports would improve prices and you simply cannot due to the exchange rate change. FFS, even imports from non sanctioned countries like Brazil will have increased in price because of the exchange rate.

 

I'll throw in a complementary extra illustration: Bloomberg chart of rouble to oil prices- sanctions and counter sanctions applied March and August. As anyone can see sanctions had sweet asterisk all effect, the exchange rate almost perfectly matches oil prices- which is independent of sanctions.

[Gromnir]

 

 

"At current rate of spending- your words, not mine; your fault, not mine- reserves will last far, far longer because the current burn rate is around 10 billion a month and they have 376 billion in reserves. I'd be perfectly happy with the general consensus of 18 months to 2 years, but you had to go all in on hyperbole- even when given the opportunity to clarify you doubled down, cutting it to the least optimistic six months."

 

well, no, the 6 month prognostication is not Gromnir's words but am rather referencing those yellow journalists who quote harvard professors, as well as imf and world bank experts,  silly rabbit.  during a 4 month period last year, russia burned through just under $150 billion, so your $10 billion per month fantasy is... quaint. situation is currently worse now than in 2008 when russia burned $200 billion in five months.  

 

"laughable economic ignorance about the exchange rate's effects, utterly laughable. That it is apparently mirrored by 'experts' is no real excuse"

 

yes, more o' the conspiracies and delusions and yellow journalism nonsense. is not tough math.  best case scenario for russians is that food costs in general goes up "8-10%"  because of sanctions (see above npr comments) and given that russians spend 30-35% of income on food... 60% increase for chicken?

 

and again, 

 

"oh, and maybe you read a few Alexei Kudrin prognostications and comments?  as a russian, he need obviously be careful with being too critical o' putin, but he blames 40% o' the devaluation o' the ruble on western sanctions. he also admits that russia is in crisis.

 

http://www.ft.com/in...144feabdc0.html

 

http://www.reuters.c...N0KX0F920150124

 

http://www.sptimes.ru/story/41515

 

"sad and surreal."

 

*shrug*

 

is genuine surreal.  honest.  am knowing you not wanna go back and read you posts, and Gromnir can only lead you to water so often, but this situation were predictable to many.  you and others did the ostrich routine, but am not understanding how you can continue to do so in light o' the current situation. 

 

HA! Good Fun!

[BruceVC]

my aren't you obtuse. we keep saying that the russian economic crisis/collapse is terrible because it will indeed affect more than just russians. am wondering how many more posts you need read before that sinks in enough that you actual remember it.

 

and we s'pose that any harvard, imf or world bank economist who is quoted in wsj or nyt or reuteurs is counting as yellow journalism. *chuckle* is funny and delusional, but knock yourself out with that.

 

"Russia's $388 billion cash hoard fell by almost a quarter over 2014, although the free float of the rouble that saw it fall so spectacularly late last year has reduced the amounts drained in support of the currency. Strip out the money in the government's rainy day funds, gold and IMF drawing rights and the number is estimated by some to be well below $200 billion."

 

that one is reuteurs, and they is the more optimistic folks.

 

"According to data and research compiled by PISM, Russia’s decision to ban food imports from the EU in response to the sanctions will put a dent in the wallets of shoppers eyeing up a traditional roast pork supper. Moscow’s ban on EU pork imports will make a meat joint as much as 15 per cent more expensive, while another ban on Polish apple imports could push apple prices up by as much as 40 per cent as domestic stocks become scarce – a jump that could push headline inflation up as much as 0.8 per cent."

 

"Russia imports about 40 percent of its food, so price increases hit hardest at the grocery store.

 

"In addition, Russia banned most food imports from the United States and the European Union in retaliation for Western sanctions. That drove food prices even higher because it created shortages.

 

"Some regions, such as Russia's Far East, are more dependent on imports, and prices for some items, such as chicken, shot up by as much as 60 percent when the ban was announced."

 

is npr.  and again, please note that russians  backwards arse economy has individual russians spending more on food that westerners, so food sanctions is disproportionate hurting russians.  and yeah, the predictable possibility o' a drop in oil made sanctions on food all the more o' a potential problem. duh.  keep trying to separate oil from food and all the other russian blunders if you wish, but they is all interconnected... just as Gromnir and others were suggesting last june.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2015/02/11/is-russias-economy-rebalancing-in-the-face-of-western-sanctions-not-really/

 

sadly, after food sanctions and because of the poverty o' the russian economy, the rate o' food production actual slowed in 2014 as 'posed to previous years.

 

we can keep posting such, but is all yellow journalism, so what is the point, eh?

 

russian stupidity created this crisis.  the russian government were fully aware of its over-dependence on oil. Gromnir and others in this thread observed BEFORE the drop in oil prices that the current situation were possible given how fragile the russian economy and how dependent it is on oil exports... any measurable change in oil prices can be disastrous for the russians, and to compound that fragility with self-imposed food sanctions were bordering on insanity. check the dates on our linked post.

 

well, sure enough, there were a drop in oil and sure enough the russian economy went into a free-fall and sure enough the price o' necessary foodstuffs increased and sure enough the russians made the problem worse by bolstering business friendly to putin and raising interest rates so that the crisis will last far beyond a resurrection o' oil prices.

 

russia got a warning in 2008. they didn't heed the very clear and painful warning.

 

is getting repetitive and silly reply/quote will again have you posting self into insensibility.

 

and one more, 'cause you is too obtuse to notice the half dozen times it has been mentioned already, the impending russian fail is gonna hurt everybody.  the only reason we care is 'cause russian fail will have far-reaching effects.  go back and actual read the linked posts and the posts that follow. our fear were that given the fragile nature o' the russian economy, we were worried that sanctions would lead to a collapse o' the rsussian economy which would hurt... everybody. russians will be hurt more than polish and far more that US, but german auto makers and french (HA!) arms dealers and many other folks is gonna suffer.  not as bad as russians is gonna hurt, but that is cold comfort.

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps  we gotta add 'cause is so funny. when questioned about the seeming ineffectual russian response to the growing economic crisis, russian deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalo, said that russians would eat less food and use less electricity.

 

...

 

that's the plan.

 

@ Zora 

 

You are a very smart guy and despite your annoying assumptions that I am a troll I enjoy seeing you debate with people 

 

But dude, you are on the wrong side and this debate with Gromnir highlights it. Gromnir is correct but I think you guys are getting far too technical and most people wouldn't be following this debate or maybe they may not understand it 

 

Of course the Russian economy is suffering and the insidious effects are still coming  but we can't claim some kind of  Western ideological  victory in this regard, no the Russians are completely responsible for the slowdown in there economy as they didn't  diversify enough from there reliance on oil and natural gas  to ensure a varied economy...we all know this and yes technically you cannot blame Putin for this 

 

But countries in a global world also need to operate in international financial circles and ensure they encourage foreign investment. Russia has become a very risky investment destination for all but the brave fund managers. The West could increase the level of sanctions but they don't want to be seen to be provoking Russia

 

But my point is really it  makes a person sound either blinded by fanatic loyalty or very uninformed to say " The Russian economy isn't suffering at the moment " and I don't consider you either of these so there is no need for you to argue about it ?

[Agiel]

I think it best not to argue with the man with General Buck Turgidson as his avatar

[Gromnir]

zor is helping us, so we don't deserve all the credit.  show us how norway, a nation similarly dependent on petroleum exports as russia, is Not suffering a cataclysmic collapse o' currency.  why the difference? well, gosh, they is having a slight more diversified service based economy and they is not being hit with western sanctions and reason defying self-imposed food sanctions.  maybe that might explain the difference?

 

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited February 13, 2015 by Gromnir

[Malcador]

The West could increase the level of sanctions but they don't want to be seen to be provoking Russia

Well, aside from your usual fellating of posts, I must say this was amusing. What does the West want to be seen as doing right now, then ?

[Gromnir]

 

The West could increase the level of sanctions but they don't want to be seen to be provoking Russia

Well, aside from your usual fellating of posts, I must say this was amusing. What does the West want to be seen as doing right now, then ?

 

am relative confident that most governments in the west would love any plausible excuse to reduce sanctions.  however, they can't do so unless putin supplies an excuse.  

 

warning: link is sweary

 

 

it works 'cause it is a movie. the tough guy takes every punch until the evil Lou (the west) finally gives up and leaves. however, tyler and putin ain't the same, mostly 'cause tyler had a plan.  even so, the western economies got enough invested in russia that they don't wanna make russia collapse, but they can't stop until putin gives... something.

 

*shrug*

 

HA! Good Fun!

Edited February 14, 2015 by Gromnir

[Malcador]

Just that sanctions, providing material assistance to Ukraine and a lot of rhetoric (granted seems to be Canada yapping the most out of all) doesn't seem like much more is needed to come across as 'provocation'.

 

Now I'm sure I'll get a response that is just 'justice' or some permutation thereof.

[BruceVC]

Just that sanctions, providing material assistance to Ukraine and a lot of rhetoric (granted seems to be Canada yapping the most out of all) doesn't seem like much more is needed to come across as 'provocation'.

 

Now I'm sure I'll get a response that is just 'justice' or some permutation thereof.

 There are different degrees of sanctions that the West could apply but they are concerned with it hurting the average Russian  man on the street and then Putin using that to his advantage ..." you see us Russians are indeed involved in an ideological conflict " 

 

But it may end up like that anyway 

[Zoraptor]

But dude, you are on the wrong side and this debate with Gromnir highlights it.

Bruce, dear fellow, you agreeing with me is one of the things that would get me to question whether I was right. Fortunately, your opinion just reinforces that I am accurate.

 

am knowing you not wanna go back and read you posts, and Gromnir can only lead you to water so often, but this situation were predictable to many. 

 

 

Gromnir know! Gromnir not need to prove!

 

Man, what an utter, utter cop out. You asserted so either provide the evidence that I said what you claimed- or admit you're a Weasel and in future refrain from asserting what you cannot prove.

 

Since you brought up Norway: here's the graph of the krone over 1 year. It too mirrors the oil rate pretty closely, without sanctions. There are a few articles about it, but the big difference is that Norway is a small country of a few million with the best part of 1 trillion dollars in its sovereign wealth fund. And yet they still saw their currency tank. You can't pick a good example to save yourself.

[Gromnir]

am looking at your graph. not as bad as russia. why?  where is the other oil-dependent nations on the worst performing currencies? 

 

 

all o' which ignores point that clearly sanctions has contributed to russian suffering, and RUSSIAN food sanctions exacerbated.  am guessing you haven't bothered to read Alexei Kudrin comments. 40% o' the devaluation o' the ruble, according to the former russian minister o' finance, is western sanctions.  he ain't wsj or imf or world bank or harvard... though pretending that those sources is poor is ridiculous.  western sanctions alone were clear hurting, but the oil situation, which had a predictable impact on the bass akwards russian economy, sent the ruble into free-fall and the russian economy into full recession.

 

last year Gromnir, bruce, kgambit and a host o' others recognized that, gosh, western sanctions could have disproportionate impact on a nation that is near complete dependent on petroleum exports. zor conspiracy theories about journalists and delusions about the health o' the russian economy is funny, but is reinforcing just how unreasonable you is willing to be in the face o' what is obvious to virtual the entire world save russians and a handful o' other conspiracy nutters.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[BruceVC]

 

But dude, you are on the wrong side and this debate with Gromnir highlights it.

Bruce, dear fellow, you agreeing with me is one of the things that would get me to question whether I was right. Fortunately, your opinion just reinforces that I am accurate.

 

am knowing you not wanna go back and read you posts, and Gromnir can only lead you to water so often, but this situation were predictable to many. 

 

 

Gromnir know! Gromnir not need to prove!

 

Man, what an utter, utter cop out. You asserted so either provide the evidence that I said what you claimed- or admit you're a Weasel and in future refrain from asserting what you cannot prove.

 

Since you brought up Norway: here's the graph of the krone over 1 year. It too mirrors the oil rate pretty closely, without sanctions. There are a few articles about it, but the big difference is that Norway is a small country of a few million with the best part of 1 trillion dollars in its sovereign wealth fund. And yet they still saw their currency tank. You can't pick a good example to save yourself.

 

 

I dont get this Zora, you can create doubt and dispute topics like American involvement in the Middle East or the reasons for the Ukrainian conflict but there is no doubt that sanctions are hurting Russia. How anyone can dispute this boggles the mind..and to make things worse I see my friend Sarex is agreeing with you..not a complete  surprise considering his view on the West.

 

But guys come on !!! Choose your battles and retain some credibility...this is not a necessary battle