Ongoing discussion of Ukraine

[obyknven]

Kiev  change path of  this flight from safe to dangerous today.

Previous paths avoid warzone.

14th July

http://ru.flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140714/1000Z/EHAM/WMKK

 

15 July

 

16 July

 

and today they suddenly go into warzone

http://ru.flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17

 

Spanish dispatchers who work in Kiev and monitoring this flight say it's Ukrainian interceptor shut down this plane.

Un contrôleur aerien espagnol basé à Kiev indique que l'avion était escorté par 2 avions de chasse ukrainien avant de disparaitre @spainbuca
✈ Carlos. ‏@spainbuca
El avión B 777 voló escoltado por 2 cazas de ukraine hasta minutos antes, de desaparecer de los radares,
9:48 - 17 июля 2014 г.
El avión B 777 voló escoltado por 2 cazas de ukraine hasta minutos antes, de desaparecer de los radares,
✈ Carlos. ‏@spainbuca
Sí las autoridades de kiev, quieren decir la verdad, esta recogido 2 cazas volaron muy cerca minutos antes , no lo derribo un caza
9:54 - 17 июля 2014 г.

 

 

 

En los radares esta todo recogido, para los incrédulos, derribado por kiev, aquí lo sabemos y control aéreo militar también

Militares confirman que fue ukraine, pero se sigue sin saber de donde vino la orden

Los cazas volaron cerca del 777, hasta 3 minutos antes de desaparecer de los radares, solo 3 minutos.

https://twitter.com/spainbuca/status/489835522849009664

 

Just small nice sacriface for god of war. Though too rude work, CIA and SBU show own non-competency again.

[Fighter]

If it wasn't for the fact the a rebel leader first had stated triumphantly on VK

 

For the last time the rebel leader does not have a vk.

[Sarex]

For the last time the rebel leader does not have a vk.

 

I find it ridiculous that people believe that the rebels have twitter accounts or vk and are bragging on them. How gullible can you be...

Edited July 17, 2014 by Sarex

[Fighter]

Strelkov_info or whatever it's called is maintained by someone or a group of people who just scour internet forums and news postings putting every rumour on the front page. It doe not belong to Strelkov, he said so himself explicitly long before this.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Fighter

[HoonDing]

Like with Korean Boeing it's likely an error with the autopilot so the plane deviated from its planned course and ended up where it didn't belong.

 

[Tagaziel]

Personally I agree with the people saying it's odd how quickly the government knew everyone died (no one's searching for survivors?) and exactly how the plane would have been shot down.

Yeah, a plane destroyed in mid-air by military-grade anti-aircraft weaponry and crashing down to earth from ten kilometers usually leaves most, if not the entire crew and all passengers alive. After all, it's just ten kilometers. Everybody and their mother survive ten kilometer falls.

 

The tin foil hat is strong with you.

[Zoraptor]

Social media accounts are and should always be suspect anyway. In this case it's pretty clearly confirmation bias but in general principle taking stuff from social media as a good source is distinctly flawed. Too easy to manipulate if you have any knowledge of propaganda techniques, too frequently no way to verify who is actually giving the information let alone the info itself.

 

I find the supposed intercepted messages rather... suspicious. Ukraine- and more tellingly, the US- got totally blindsided over the annexation of Crimea because they could not intercept Russian messages, but now they suddenly can? If Russia is actually running agents in Ukraine they certainly won't be doing so en clair, they'll either be encrypting out the wazoo or using other techniques. The editorialisation (X talking to 'unknown terrorist') doesn't help either. Similar thing happened in Georgia as well, conveniently selective ability to intercept military messages, and in that case the 'independent' observers (OSCE) said that the supposed message did not reflect reality even if it were legitimate.

 

Too early to tell who was involved anyway. All the planes the rebels have shot down have been at far lower altitude and it's unclear whether the rebels even have to capability to hit at that altitude- an advanced SAM system is a far different kettle of fish to a shoulder mounted SAM or activating/ using mothballed tanks, even if the rebels had a Buk there's a fair chance they couldn't operate it or maintain it- and if it were run by Russians then... Both the Russians and Ukrainians should be able to tell the difference between a civilian airliner and a military one, even if the Ukrainians have form for not being able to. And I find it difficult to credit that the Ukrainians were after Putin even if it has some logic behind it (it would explain why a civilian transponder warning might be ignored) as that would be utter suicide and I find it difficult to credit that even their current leadership is that delusional.

[Barothmuk]

Seems pretty ****ing stupid not to have this unstable region as a no-fly zone.

 

I assume it is now?

[Fighter]

Seems pretty ****ing stupid not to have this unstable region as a no-fly zone.

 

You know I'm not big on conspiracies but if you direct a civilian aircraft through a zone where you've lost multiple planes including at high altitude and where you know rebels shoot at anything that flies above (it's not like they can tell) you're either very negligent... or you're manufacturing an incident.

[Zoraptor]

Nah, not really. Civilian planes still flew over Afghanistan or Iraq, for example(s), and there's no confirmed uses of high altitude weapons by the rebels, the Antonovs shot down were at less than manpad service ceiling. The Ukrainians did claim one was at high altitude, but that was questioned strongly by experts at the time since it made no sense for it to be at high altitude and indeed, there was no change in the advisory to civilian aircraft following that shoot down. 10k+ metres altitude (for civilian jets) is generally assumed to be safe from missiles.

Edited July 17, 2014 by Zoraptor

[Walsingham]

 

I find the supposed intercepted messages rather... suspicious. Ukraine- and more tellingly, the US- got totally blindsided over the annexation of Crimea because they could not intercept Russian messages, but now they suddenly can? If Russia is actually running agents in Ukraine they certainly won't be doing so en clair, they'll either be encrypting out the wazoo or using other techniques. The editorialisation (X talking to 'unknown terrorist') doesn't help either. Similar thing happened in Georgia as well, conveniently selective ability to intercept military messages, and in that case the 'independent' observers (OSCE) said that the supposed message did not reflect reality even if it were legitimate.

 

So you don't think it's likely that they'd dedicate assets to correct the oversight?

 

My only perspective is that hundreds of people are dead, and the only hope they have for justice is millions of bloody fools shouting at each other about conspiracies.

[Zoraptor]

I'd be extremely surprised if they hadn't been dedicating resources to correct the oversight since forever, that is the core reason for having the CIA/ NSA in the first place. But we also know that they hadn't corrected it as of a few months ago, so the (recent) default is that they cannot be read.

[Wrath of Dagon]

It's interesting that although Putin blamed Ukraine for the incident (for supposedly starting the conflict), he did not actually accuse them of the shoot down itself. Surely he knows who did it.

[Gromnir]

"Like with Korean Boeing it's likely an error with the autopilot so the plane deviated from its planned course and ended up where it didn't belong."

 

thankfully, that kinda thing is near impossible nowadays. significant changes occurred after that tragedy so as to prevent future occurrences. the ****pit autopilot interface were altered to avoid confusion, and the US made gps available for civilian use. no doubt after this tragedy, similar advances/changes will be made... although we suspect weapons technology will always be subject to human error. all it takes is a misinformed general, trigger-happy pilot or yutz in an anti-aircraft platform to make the wrong split-second decision that will cost hundreds or even thousands of lives. as tech becomes more readily available and lethal at ever increasing ranges, it will be difficult to keep mistakes from happening. 

 

am recalling that when rebels overthrew qaddafi there were numerous reports on just how much the rebels used and relied 'pon social media and burner cellphones to communicate. the notion o' the cia using social media to communicate and coordinate with rebels struck us as initially ludicrous, but perfect reasonable 'pon reflection. is a new world-- wouldn't complete discount social media sources and cellphone communications.  that being said, we sure as hell don't believe all the nonsense floating around at the moment. is almost not even worth reading news reports at this time as many "facts" will be revealed as incorrect when looking back a few months from now.

 

also, when you got eastern europeans, you will have wacky conspiracy theories. 

 

http://www.boston.com/news/world/europe/2014/07/17/the-weirdest-conspiracy-theories-surrounding-the-malaysia-airlines-flight/Vga8tXxgp0g9z4t4OtctYL/story.html

 

the putin presidential flight path is particular amusing to us as it has so much inertia but is based on a single unnamed source that even rt admits were contradicted. that conspiracy theory also requires the ukranians to have known o' the s'posed flight path. nevertheless, the best conspiracies only work 'cause o' absence o' evidence. is like an insane mad libs template where anyone and everyone can fill in the blanks howsoever they wish.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[BruceVC]

 

Seems pretty ****ing stupid not to have this unstable region as a no-fly zone.

 

You know I'm not big on conspiracies but if you direct a civilian aircraft through a zone where you've lost multiple planes including at high altitude and where you know rebels shoot at anything that flies above (it's not like they can tell) you're either very negligent... or you're manufacturing an incident.

 

 

The fact that the Ukrainian rebels shot down the plane from such a high altitude is very rare, so there haven't been other examples

 

Also the Russians do have the flight recorder, why when I pointed this out did  why you say " I don't know what I'm talking about"

 

This thread always brings out the worst justifications and excuses from people in there support for Russia or the Ukrainian rebels. You guys need to learn just to accept certain things and not look for some conspiracy theories.

 

IMO the plane was shot down by the Ukrainian rebels thinking it was a transport plane helping the Ukrainians

[Gromnir]

 

 

Seems pretty ****ing stupid not to have this unstable region as a no-fly zone.

 

You know I'm not big on conspiracies but if you direct a civilian aircraft through a zone where you've lost multiple planes including at high altitude and where you know rebels shoot at anything that flies above (it's not like they can tell) you're either very negligent... or you're manufacturing an incident.

 

 

The fact that the Ukrainian rebels shot down the plane from such a high altitude is very rare, so there haven't been other examples

 

Also the Russians do have the flight recorder, why when I pointed this out did  why you say " I don't know what I'm talking about"

 

This thread always brings out the worst justifications and excuses from people in there support for Russia or the Ukrainian rebels. You guys need to learn just to accept certain things and not look for some conspiracy theories.

 

IMO the plane was shot down by the Ukrainian rebels thinking it was a transport plane helping the Ukrainians

 

http://thenextweb.com/apple/2012/09/11/american-airlines-first-get-faa-approval-use-ipads-all-phases-flight-saving-1-2m/

 

the cost o' having to avoid airspace where any global conflict is occurring would be extreme. is perhaps cynical, but until the potential cost in human lives became real, most airlines were gonna take the admitted extreme small risk o' flying over the contentious airspace wherein this tragedy finally and predictably unfolded. how many commercial passenger airliners has flown that same or similar route for many months? how many has been shot down? how much money would some carriers have lost if they voluntarily had avoided all the dangerous seeming travel routes, particularly if other carriers were utilizing the more direct (cheaper) route and were able to offer relative discounted fares by doing so?  somebody were eventually gonna lose the lottery, but it were good business to take that risk... as cold-blooded as that sounds.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Rostere]

 

For the last time the rebel leader does not have a vk.

 

I find it ridiculous that people believe that the rebels have twitter accounts or vk and are bragging on them. How gullible can you be...

 

You said what?

 

What's so strange about the rebels having social media accounts for propaganda purposes? It's perfectly sensible.

[BruceVC]

 

 

For the last time the rebel leader does not have a vk.

 

I find it ridiculous that people believe that the rebels have twitter accounts or vk and are bragging on them. How gullible can you be...

 

You said what?

 

What's so strange about the rebels having social media accounts for propaganda purposes? It's perfectly sensible.

 

 

I agree, Social Media tools are used by groups of people in various conflicts for various reasons. There is no surprise that the Ukrainian separatists are using them

[Fighter]

Also the Russians do have the flight recorder, why when I pointed this out did  why you say " I don't know what I'm talking about"

 

You've implied far more than that. And you don't know what you're talking about.

 

 

 

This thread always brings out the worst justifications and excuses from people in there support for Russia or the Ukrainian rebels. You guys need to learn just to accept certain things and not look for some conspiracy theories.

 

I never justified anything. A plane shouldn't have been where a Buk-M1 was lost by Ukrainian millitary weeks ago. It's a fact, not a justification. Someone in charge of this messed up, it's not just the rebels who predictably shoot at everything that flies over them.

[BruceVC]

 

Also the Russians do have the flight recorder, why when I pointed this out did  why you say " I don't know what I'm talking about"

 

You've implied far more than that. And you don't know what you're talking about.

 

 

 

This thread always brings out the worst justifications and excuses from people in there support for Russia or the Ukrainian rebels. You guys need to learn just to accept certain things and not look for some conspiracy theories.

 

I never justified anything. A plane shouldn't have been where a Buk-M1 was lost by Ukrainian millitary weeks ago. It's a fact, not a justification. Someone in charge of this messed up, it's not just the rebels who predictably shoot at everything that flies over them.

 

 

So lets focus on  your accusation, what exactly "do I not know what I'm talking about "

 

That's the plance was shot down by Ukrainian separatists or the Russians have the flight recorder?

[Walsingham]

It's impossible for us to know at this stage if the elected Ukrainian government shot the plane down. But we can observe that there would be very little point.

 

Shooting a plane down, even a plane carrying Russian officials, would not serve any practical military purpose. Troops and weapons are mainly entering the country on the ground. Because of the existing massive land border with Russia.

 

It doesn't look like an accident, because a Ukrainian air defence unit would not engage a slow moving target at a high altitude mistaking it for an imminent threat.

 

So the only possible reason would be political. But how would it serve any purpose. It wouldn't pressure the Russians, who are in the grip of a media dominated by Kremlin owned and disciplined networks. It won't increase Western commitment to the government, because the West is already as supportive as they are going to get.

[Zoraptor]

Ultimately, the problem is that it doesn't make sense for anyone to have shot it down, yet shot down it was.

 

What's so strange about the rebels having social media accounts for propaganda purposes? It's perfectly sensible.

 

That's irrelevant if the guy in question has previously said he has no social media accounts though, because in that case we have no clue who is posting under his name. For all we know it could be oby (or Bruce, or me for that matter).

[Tagaziel]

It's impossible for us to know at this stage if the elected Ukrainian government shot the plane down. But we can observe that there would be very little point.

 

Shooting a plane down, even a plane carrying Russian officials, would not serve any practical military purpose. Troops and weapons are mainly entering the country on the ground. Because of the existing massive land border with Russia.

 

It doesn't look like an accident, because a Ukrainian air defence unit would not engage a slow moving target at a high altitude mistaking it for an imminent threat.

 

So the only possible reason would be political. But how would it serve any purpose. It wouldn't pressure the Russians, who are in the grip of a media dominated by Kremlin owned and disciplined networks. It won't increase Western commitment to the government, because the West is already as supportive as they are going to get.

You are correct, Wals, though you don't point out one thing: Shooting down a plane carrying the Russian head of state would give the Russian Federation a casus belli so perfect that Stalin would've rose from his grave and kissed Poroshenko for being such a perfect moron and enabler of imperialism.

 

I never justified anything. A plane shouldn't have been where a Buk-M1 was lost by Ukrainian millitary weeks ago. It's a fact, not a justification. Someone in charge of this messed up, it's not just the rebels who predictably shoot at everything that flies over them.

No planes should've been there, but airline companies have been plotting courses over separatist territories because it saves fuel. Funny thing that. It was actually closed airspace to a certain flight level, because nobody expected that separatists would be retarded enough to fire on a civilian airliner at 10,000m.

[Rostere]

What's so strange about the rebels having social media accounts for propaganda purposes? It's perfectly sensible.

 

That's irrelevant if the guy in question has previously said he has no social media accounts though, because in that case we have no clue who is posting under his name. For all we know it could be oby (or Bruce, or me for that matter).

 

I'm not at all saying it's him personally who is posting, it's probably some "keyboard warrior" sitting somewhere in a basement of a rebel base in Donetsk. For sure it's a rebel propaganda account, who believed that rebels had shot down an AN-26.

 

"We don't have the equipment to shoot down a plane flying that high" Yeah, right.

 

Another dude says on Twitter about the "Strelkov" account: "Run by DPR volunteers with occasional posts by the man himself. Have been following it for weeks"

 

Here is a cached tweet from a rebel propaganda page which was also recently deleted. Coincidence?

[Rostere]

Truck driving with SA-11 missile system in rebel-held territory, one or two missiles short: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mICnsgEY7wE

 

And this, rebel talking about how Russian experts was fixing a SA-11 system for them: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxVZvh9YScU

Edited July 18, 2014 by Rostere