Ongoing discussion of Ukraine

[Sarex]

That was awesome, lol. :D

[Bester]

>Ukrainian thread

>discussing Russian cultural events

 

 

Is it perhaps a reflection on how much the territorial formation called Ukraine is a 20 year old political misunderstanding, rather than its own country?

 

 

 

Anyway, do you want me to continue this trend? Here you go, girls, I brought more gossip on Russia and Putin: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2722153/Mickey-Rourke-jumps-boxing-ring-Moscow-admits-fan-controversial-Russian-President-Vladimir-Putin-hes-got-T-shirt-prove-it.html

 

Edited August 11, 2014 by Bester

[Rostere]

"Russia Bans Western Food Imports, Punches Itself Right in the ****"

[Bester]

"Russia Bans Western Food Imports, Punches Itself Right in the ****"

 

So I read your article and I got a weird feeling of unease. Like somebody was trying to trick me again...?! But why? Why would anyone want to fool me??? So just on a hunch I went ahead and googled up 3 random articles about Russia's food bans. And when I read them all, I gasped in disbelieve! Could it be... that I've been lied to???

 

 

 

Kitchenette (your article):

Russia on Thursday declared that ALL food imports are banned from the US, the EU, Norway, Canada, and Australia.

 

The Forbes:

In another tit-for-tat exchange with Europe, Russia opted to ban imports of certain key food items following Europe’s ban on companies conducting business with some Russian banks, as well as Russian energy firms.

 

Kitchenette:

They've straight-up said "NO, YOU WERE MEAN TO US, SO WE'RE JUST GOING TO STARVE, WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THAT" to three different continents.

 

Wall Street Journal:

While the list appeared tailored to avoid hitting ordinary Russian consumers too much, some economists said it could backfire by driving up domestic food prices, at least in the short term.

 

Kitchenette:

Economists are pretty salient about what a terrible idea this is for them at a time when Russia's economy can ill-afford it.

 

Deutsche Welle:

The economic climate in the eurozone is depressed and in the view of European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, the Ukraine conflict has only exacerbated the situation. According to the EU Commission, the European economy will lose 40 billion euros this year due to EU economic sanctions against Russia. A general economic downturn would come at a bad time for the ailing European economy. Europe is laboriously working its way out of years of crisis, not without setbacks: Italy, for example, the EU's fourth largest economy, has now surprisingly slipped back into recession. The weaker EU members, especially Italy, France, Greece and Spain, desperately need a boost. These sanctions will have the opposite effect.

 

 

 

NIOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!! EUROPEAN POLITICIANS ARE THE SMARTEST!!!! I DON'T BELIEVE YOU, WALL STREET JOURNAL, DEUTSCHE WELLE AND FORBES!!! I BELIEVE KITCHENETTE, **** YOU!!!!!!!!!

 

Edited August 12, 2014 by Bester

[Rostere]

You probably shouldn't take that joke site too seriously

[Bester]

You probably shouldn't take that joke site too seriously

 

Ok, all jokes aside, Rostere, I'm a white European and I don't take kindly to my own representatives blindly following American orders and stabbing my economy in the foot, something my ancestors took centuries to build. I take it all quite seriously. I don't want to see self-congratulatory delusional jokes about how we're defeating the dumb Russians while it's the Americans who are defeating Europe.

[BruceVC]

 

You probably shouldn't take that joke site too seriously

 

Ok, all jokes aside, Rostere, I'm a white European and I don't take kindly to my own representatives blindly following American orders and stabbing my economy in the foot, something my ancestors took centuries to build. I take it all quite seriously. I don't want to see self-congratulatory delusional jokes about how we're defeating the dumb Russians while it's the Americans who are defeating Europe.

 

 

 

That should only be a concern if it was true.."Americans defeating Europe "....

[obyknven]

How Ukrainian propagand lie.

Cauton! Corpses!

http://ukrainewarlog.blogspot.com.br/2014/08/russian-soldiers-commit-torture-war.html?spref=tw&m=1

Here Ukrainians tell coolstories about how rebels torture and execute Ukrainian POW.

 

IRL they change consequence of photos. Firstly this wounded guy captured by rebels after battle, later he lie wounded on ground and await evacuation (he a bit covered by blood because of this). After this rebels bring him to hospital where medics cure him. Local civilians try execute him in hospital, but rebels protect him. In near past rebels change this guy and other POW's to captured rebels (and captured rebels looks much worse after Ukrainian captivity). In other words all story in Ukrainian media is total bull****

.

http://youtu.be/DIs9KsKR5nk

P.S. About "Russian marine". This guy has Ukrainian surname, he is ethnic Ukrainian, he can reason to fight in this war. Anyone can dressed as Russian marine, it's  quite easy - such dress can be buyed in any military shop. And even if this guy is citizen of Russia and serve someday in Russian military forces this proof nothing, it's his personal business what he do now, in this case he just a volunteer

[Chilloutman]

Well even if we loose some economic power, EU is still biggest economy in the world. Russia is just punishing itself. However it can be good for national feelings of russian people. Some of their state representatives even sad that russian people can survive on vodka and sardines xD

[Absurdated]

But really, if lying politicans where enough to coup-de-tat each democratic government would be thrown over by now. Instead the 'civilised world' waits for next elections. Why couldn't Ukraine? I have no freakin' clue. You tell me... it certainly doesn't sound very democratic.

 

Of course democratic goverments have flaws... but is a ragtag band of protesters ruling and them excluding half-the-country on a new election democratic *at all*

I aim to... no.

 

Sorry, but you're either oblivious or just didn't look at the exact series of events.

Just to remind (also, sorry for not-too-good english):

So-called euro-maidan started November 21st. Up to November 29th, it was about signing the association agreement.

Then, at November 30th, it was declared that the square should be decorated for Christmas. Decorators were accompanied by special police force and, well, things get down from there. As far as my knowledge goes, this Wiki article is more or less correct about further events.

 

Now about motivations. There was significant (I'm not saying "justified", but significant for people who went against the government) fear that there wouldn't be any fair elections. Not long before, Vradiivka incident occurred (long story short, there was a rape with the accused being protected by different officials that were supposed to be objective; this Wiki article contains a brief summary). So there was, and still is, strong distrust in any official institutions. People didn't trust President who said there will be actual, honest elections, people didn't trust any court that could declare whether there was or wasn't any cheating and people didn't trust police that should prevent that cheating.

Systematic episodes of what seemed to be corruption and non-fair play undermined citizen trust in President to a degree where they simply didn't see any other way to prevent him from doing as he pleased (and as would contradict their interests).

 

It is up to debate whether this was against an ideal of democracy or the legitimate "right to riot". And if we go with the latter, suppressing other protesters going for different cause can indeed seem hypocrite. But, in the end, it is about question "when people have the right to break the law", which, for obvious reasons, can't be formalized and put into a law itself.

[Hassat Hunter]

The funny thing being that this fear of "unfair elections" was then proceeded by ACTUAL unfair elections, just for the other side... since the West knew better than the East of course.

And then they wanted to commit war on the East for being different minded.

Yeah, sounds like 'proper leadership' alright... NOT.

 

The cure worse than the disease comes to mind. But I guess the EU makes everyone a little crazy, not just in Ukraine...

 

 

You probably shouldn't take that joke site too seriously

 

Ok, all jokes aside, Rostere, I'm a white European and I don't take kindly to my own representatives blindly following American orders and stabbing my economy in the foot, something my ancestors took centuries to build. I take it all quite seriously. I don't want to see self-congratulatory delusional jokes about how we're defeating the dumb Russians while it's the Americans who are defeating Europe.

 

 

 

That should only be a concern if it was true.."Americans defeating Europe "....

 

Sadly, it's true.

The US is treating us as enemies. And instead of responding aggression by aggresion (a US favorite) we instead cave in and just go "sure, he bullies us. But we're willing to allow that to be friends. You want us to hurt ourselves to get at Russia, sure we help you. Anything you for you, mr. Bully"... The EU does infact act like a victim that just loves it's victim role.

And I don't like it. I would much rather we get closer to Russia and farther from the US than what the current progression is. Because seriously, the Russians have treated us far far better.

Well even if we loose some economic power, EU is still biggest economy in the world. Russia is just punishing itself. However it can be good for national feelings of russian people. Some of their state representatives even sad that russian people can survive on vodka and sardines xD

Hope you're still laughing if the US wants to increase punishment, and the EU being the weak passive followers they are they will agree, and the Russians respond by lowering or severing gas severly.

I have no doubt the EU will side with the US even if we're going to be in great trouble then... and since the US doesn't really depend on Russia, and also not much on the EU it will be laughing it's ass of as they just go about destroying their own economies while they're save and sound making suggestions from overseas.

It would almost be funny if it wasn't pathetic how weak the EU is, or how atrocious the American's economy is at the moment (record debt and climbing? Check!)

Fix your own damn economy before ruining ours too, thank you very much...

[Chilloutman]

Hassat may I ask you where you are from before I respond?

[Gromnir]

russian economy is looking more like a middle-eastern nation than is typical o' european countries.

 

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/rus/all/show/2012/

 

is simplified, but you can see just how dependent russia is on raw materials exports, particular petroleum. russia is hardly the only nation that is not self-sufficient as it relates to food productions, but am going to leave to folks to decide for themselves how likely the russian economy is to absorb significant food import bans as well as foreign sanctions.

 

HA! Good Fun! 

[BruceVC]

russian economy is looking more like a middle-eastern nation than is typical o' european countries.

 

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/rus/all/show/2012/

 

is simplified, but you can see just how dependent russia is on raw materials exports, particular petroleum. russia is hardly the only nation that is not self-sufficient as it relates to food productions, but am going to leave to folks to decide for themselves how likely the russian economy is to absorb significant food import bans as well as foreign sanctions.

 

HA! Good Fun! 

 

Is this accurate? If I'm reading this correctly 65 % of there exports are Petroleum based, I wonder where they are going to or rather how much goes to the EU which means Russia cannot afford to declare there own sanctions on the EU by not selling them Petroleum?

[Bester]

It would almost be funny if it wasn't pathetic how weak the EU is, or how atrocious the American's economy is at the moment (record debt and climbing? Check!)

You say debt like it's a dangerous thing for them. Here's the thing though. You assume that once the American debt has reached a certain point, they won't be able to pay the interest fees and it will provoke a snowball effect? That is not correct, and here's why.

 

Their interest rate is extremely low, something like 0.2 or 0.3%. With such interest rate, they can simply borrow money and buy obligations from other countries, which provide 3-5% interest rate. This way, by borrowing money, they make money.

 

And if one day they decide they don't like their debt, they'll make negative interest rates.

 

By having everyone depend on their currency, they can borrow as much as they like, and when they feel like it, then can emit money and not worry about inflation because they can export it to other countries. They're financial parasites.

[Rostere]

 

russian economy is looking more like a middle-eastern nation than is typical o' european countries.

 

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/rus/all/show/2012/

 

is simplified, but you can see just how dependent russia is on raw materials exports, particular petroleum. russia is hardly the only nation that is not self-sufficient as it relates to food productions, but am going to leave to folks to decide for themselves how likely the russian economy is to absorb significant food import bans as well as foreign sanctions.

 

HA! Good Fun! 

 

Is this accurate? If I'm reading this correctly 65 % of there exports are Petroleum based, I wonder where they are going to or rather how much goes to the EU which means Russia cannot afford to declare there own sanctions on the EU by not selling them Petroleum?

 

That is pretty much the case, yes.

[Malcador]

Looks like a good chance for Latin American states to sell stuff to Russia. What exactly is the end condition for the sanctions ? Crimea returns to Ukraine ?

Edited August 12, 2014 by Malcador

[Bester]

russian economy is looking more like a middle-eastern nation than is typical o' european countries.

 

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/rus/all/show/2012/

 

is simplified, but you can see just how dependent russia is on raw materials exports, particular petroleum. russia is hardly the only nation that is not self-sufficient as it relates to food productions, but am going to leave to folks to decide for themselves how likely the russian economy is to absorb significant food import bans as well as foreign sanctions.

 

HA! Good Fun! 

In the context of world division of labor, most countries specialize in something. Finland exports wood and Nokia. Russia exports weapons and natural resources.

[kgambit]

 

russian economy is looking more like a middle-eastern nation than is typical o' european countries.

 

http://atlas.cid.harvard.edu/explore/tree_map/export/rus/all/show/2012/

 

is simplified, but you can see just how dependent russia is on raw materials exports, particular petroleum. russia is hardly the only nation that is not self-sufficient as it relates to food productions, but am going to leave to folks to decide for themselves how likely the russian economy is to absorb significant food import bans as well as foreign sanctions.

 

HA! Good Fun! 

 

Is this accurate? If I'm reading this correctly 65 % of there exports are Petroleum based, I wonder where they are going to or rather how much goes to the EU which means Russia cannot afford to declare there own sanctions on the EU by not selling them Petroleum?

 

 

Yes.   

 

Oil and gas revenues accounted for 52% of federal budget revenues and over 70% of total exports in 2012, according to PFC Energy.

 

 

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=RS

 

The majority of it goes to Europe.  Nearly 80% give or take depending on the sector (oil, gas, refined etc.)

 

In 2012, Russia exported approximately 7.4 million bbl/d of total liquid fuels, with 5 million bbl/d of crude oil and 2.4 million bbl/d of petroleum products. The majority (79%) of Russia's crude oil exports went to European countries (including Eastern Europe), particularly Germany, Netherlands, and Poland. Around 18% of Russia's crude oil exports were destined for Asia, while the remainder went mostly to the Americas. Russia's crude oil exports to North America and South America have been largely displaced by increases in crude oil production in the United States, Canada, and, to a lesser extent, in Brazil, Colombia, and other countries on the continent. More than 80% of Russia's oil is exported via the Transneft pipeline system, and the remainder is shipped via rail and on vessels that load at independently-owned terminals.

Russia also exports fairly sizeable volumes of oil products. According to Eastern Bloc, Russia exported about 1.3 million bbl/d of fuel oil and an additional 677,000 bbl/d of diesel in 2012, as well as smaller amounts of gasoline, liquefied petroleum gas, and other products. The biggest importers of Russian products are Indonesia (389,000 bbl/d) and the United States (376,000 bbl/d).

 

 

Russia sends about 76% of its natural gas exports to customers in Western Europe, with Germany, Turkey, Italy, France, and the United Kingdom receiving the bulk of these volumes. Smaller volumes of natural gas are also shipped via the Gazprom pipeline network to Austria, Finland, and Greece.

 

 

http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=RS

 

Asia is the second biggest recipient at 12 to 18%.

Edited August 12, 2014 by kgambit

[Bester]

Looks like a good chance for Latin American states to sell stuff to Russia. What exactly is the end condition for the sanctions ? Crimea returns to Ukraine ?

 

What were the conditions to end sanctions against Russia after Georgia attacked South Ossetia? A quick reminder of that particularly shameful moment. 

- The mass media spun it like Russia attacked Georgia.

- Europe imposed sanctions despite the EU report. The report confirmed that the conflict started by Georgians shelling Tskhinvali civilians and peace keepers for no reason. 

- The report was shoved under the carpet, Europe continued to babble and then quietly lifted all sanctions after a year.

 

So by experience, we can assume that once the Ukrainian conflict ends, sanctions will go away after a year or so. The problem is that the conflict isn't exactly nearing its end and from the looks of it, it might end with Donetsk and Luhansk rebels in Kiev. What will the US (a very sore loser) do then? A second Vietnam in Ukraine? A second cold war?

[Sarex]

Looks like a good chance for Latin American states to sell stuff to Russia. What exactly is the end condition for the sanctions ? Crimea returns to Ukraine ?

 

Lol, not even, Crimea isn't even being questioned anymore. They probably just want the Russians to stop supporting east Ukraine.

[BruceVC]

 

Looks like a good chance for Latin American states to sell stuff to Russia. What exactly is the end condition for the sanctions ? Crimea returns to Ukraine ?

 

What were the conditions to end sanctions against Russia after Georgia attacked South Ossetia? A quick reminder of that particularly shameful moment. 

- The mass media spun it like Russia attacked Georgia.

- Europe imposed sanctions despite the EU report. The report confirmed that the conflict started by Georgians shelling Tskhinvali civilians and peace keepers for no reason. 

- The report was shoved under the carpet, Europe continued to babble and then quietly lifted all sanctions after a year.

 

So by experience, we can assume that once the Ukrainian conflict ends, sanctions will go away after a year or so. The problem is that the conflict isn't exactly nearing its end and from the looks of it, it might end with Donetsk and Luhansk rebels in Kiev. What will the US (a very sore loser) do then? A second Vietnam in Ukraine? A second cold war?

 

 

No Bester this is different, the West did drop the ball on Georgia but Ukraine has become much more symbolically important to the West

 

The West has decided to really start confronting Putin and his desires for Russian hegemony in eastern Europe. Of course there won't be a war over Ukraine but as I've said several times you don't need a military option to get Russia to change its belligerent approach, sanctions will work. They will just take time

[Malcador]

Indeed, only one sphere of influence allowed, and that's The Right One.

[BruceVC]

Indeed, only one sphere of influence allowed, and that's The Right One.

 

So let me get this straight, you support the "referendum" and the way Russia annexed Crimea?

[Malcador]

Well, your post made me chuckle with the whole "Those guys over there are bad" tone and thinking of the other side being able to claim likewise. Usual comedy of state interactions, and all.

 

Russia's play over the last year ? Not seeing it as a good thing, given the fuss it fanned up. Ideally, the referendum would have been nice and honest and then it could be settled either way, but too much to hope for.