Ongoing discussion of Ukraine

[Agiel]

You'll forgive me if it seems tasteless of me to illustrate the tragedy using a computer game.

 

Modeling the scenario using Command: Modern Air/Naval Operations, which has an extremely exhaustive database.

 

Start of the scenario. MH-17 (using a Boeing 767 as a stand-in for a 777, as for whatever odd reason the 777 isn't in the database). It is on a roughly south-west-west course overflying the SA-11 platoon. Note that the associated Snow Drift radar is completely absent.

 

 

Proving that the TELAR is using just its own Fire Dome radar:

 

 

SA-11 platoon detects MH-17. Without an advanced TV camera, the crew must use its Mark I Eyeballs to visually identify the target. Tough if it a track is 40 nautical miles away.

 

 

MH-17 enters SA-11 missile range. The battery launches two missiles. In AAW operations, it is prudent to ripple fire two missiles to ensure maximum probability of a kill.

 

 

As the missiles enter the end-game guidance phase, the SA-11 TELAR activates terminal illuminators:

 

 

As it turns out, in this instance the second missile was unnecessary. The SA-11 had been designed for short-medium range engagements against maneuverable strike-craft like the F-16 and the F-15E Strike Eagle. Against a lumbering, cargo-plane sized jet, it may seem like overkill:

 

[Bester]

So what does represent the truth Bester? How do we get accurately informed?

 

Hah, your blind faith in the infallibility of the press made me think of this passage:

 

The first account by the press described Napoleon’s arrival in France from the island of Elba: "The Corsican monster has landed in the Gulf of Jouan." The second announced, "The cannibal advances toward Grasse." The third reported, "The usurper has entered Grenoble." The fourth, "Bonaparte has occupied Lyon." The fifth, "Napoleon approaches Fontainebleau." And finally, the sixth, "His imperial majesty is expected today in his faithful Paris."

~ E. Tarle, Napoleon

 

So, uh, anyway... I only opened this thread yesterday and I don't have the habit of swallowing press' cool stories a lot, so I don't know what it is that you think happened there. Let's get things straight. Here's what I know:

- The elected president postponed signing of the trading association agreement, either because he wanted to get better conditions or because he decided to go with the Eurasian Economic Union, we'll probably never know which

- Some people organized a political rally on the Maidan square that wasn't sanctioned. Despite the fact that it wasn't sanctioned, it was handled extremely carefully. In white civilized countries, those people would've been beaten by cops and taken away. 

- Those people claimed that they represented the whole country. They weren't. Here's the thing:

* Ukraine is composed of three big parts - the western ukraine (which is formally Poland, basically, so its inhabitants often call themselves Hungarians and whatnot), 

* the central Ukraine (which is inhabitant by actual Ukrainians) and 

* the Eastern Ukraine (which is inhabited by Russians).

Russian is the most used language by far, it is almost always used in Central Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine. 

There's always been a big tension between Eastern Ukrainians and Western Ukrainians. Why? Because a lot of Western Ukranians have collaborated with Hitler during WW2 (most notably Khatyn massacre ). The Western Ukrainians also constantly vote for representatives who often say outrageous things like "we should make Ukrainian the only official language" or "we should assimilate violently all russian speaking citizens, they either become ukrainian or they become our enemy and are dealt with accordingly", things like that.

Now, Maidan rally was largely composed of Western Ukrainians.

- They provided themselves with weapons and started shooting at the police. In any white country, they would've been obliterated. Instead, Yukashenko disarmed ukrainian police.

- After more and more police got shot, the police finally got their weapons back, but still weren't authorized to clear the Maidan square.

- This resulted in Maidanese shooting at the police and the police shooting back, but neither could make any progress. With people dead at both sides.

- During this complete chaos, the protesters managed to overthrow the legally elected president and appointed their own people, who IMMEDIATELY reverted the law that authorized people to use Russian language in their official dealings, documents, etc.

- The eastern ukrainians had a party called "region party". Testimonies suggest that members of parliament from the region party were persecuted by the new authorigies, their families threatened, so a lot of them simply left the parliament for good. This way, the new authorities could pass any law they wanted and the eastern ukraine was completely excluded from the political processes.

- Eastern Ukrainians were outraged and they thought that the new government is a genuine nazi government that is going to make Eastern Ukrainians into second rate citizens. A lot of them didn't even know ukrainian language and now had to read official mail, conduct court business etc in a language they didn't even know. 

- So they asked for federalization. The new Kiev government rejected it and branded eastern Ukrainians as russian spies and terrorists. This didn't exactly help, the eastern ukrainians got even more scared.

- So they did exactly the same thing their western neighbors did a month earlier - they organized rallies, overthrew local authorities with the support of local police and appointed their own ministers, except they did it without spilling blood because local police was on their side in the first place.

- Kiev still refused to have dialogue, refused to acknowledge the situation entirely and kept calling eastern ukrainians spies, terrorists, etc.

- So the eastern ukrainians decided that if they can't participate in ukrainian political processes, they're just going to part ways with Ukraine. They organized a referendum and most people voted for separation from Ukraine.

 

Now there's also a tricky part to this all. The new kiev government is pro-european, so western press is siding with kiev no matter what. Separatists are pro-russian, so western press is going to bash them whatever they do. This was also very visible when they organized the referendum. It was branded as a complete joke in the western press. However, nobody could deny that most people in the easterk ukraine were heavily against kiev, there were gigantic lines, people waited for 2-3-4 hours just to cast their vote and those huge lines were all very vocal and admitted on camera that they're voting for separation.

And when the presidential elections happened, everyone in the west clapped, tears in their eyes, happy for the ukrainian people and their democracy. Nobody mentioned that there were overwhelming proof that the elections were falsified. Furthermore, nobody even mentioned that kiev didn't even deign opening polling places in the eastern ukraine. Ukraine elected a president without letting eastern ukrainians vote. Such democracy.

 

Then there were months of civil war, during which the kiev government shelled cities and killed thousands of civilians, which they deny despite the fact that there are tons of videos on youtube with people torn apart by air strikes. And while this is happening, Russia is getting sanctions. Every day kiev kills ~200 people.

 

Now your turn, tell me how the press said it happened!

[Malcador]

Ok must be confused. Thought the issue was that Russia supplied the missiles and is to blame. Separatists shooting it down seems extremely likely.

[Gromnir]

Separatists shooting it down seems extremely likely.

you would think so, but read bester and some o' the other posters in this thread. is wacky.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Bester]

"And this is exactly what I've said. Without the radar, it's almost useless."

 

your conclusions is not supported by information. agiel link shows that the radar on the stand-alone is indeed more limited than the complete system. 4 seconds to cover 120 degrees with a range o' +32km? that is useless? 33,000 ft is 10km up, which is no issue as max altitude is within range. plane is traveling about 16 kilometers per minute? am not seeing a problem with the math. our link observes that the stand-alone is capable but doesn't have advanced IFF, which would explain why the clowns shot down a passenger jet. all-in-all, am not thinking you has not proved what you think you has proved. in point o' fact, you has helped illustrate more clearly how/why the separatists would mistake a jetliner for... something else. so, thanks?

 

as for malcador comments... am not understanding. at this point, the most significant question would appear to be who were in control o' the missile system that shot down the airplane, yes? 

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps one of these days we will learn to spell "separatists" correct... sheesh

 

The bottom line is, radarless Buk can only see targets at ~20km from itself and only when they're in front of it. 16 km per minute - means a lot of planes can enter buk's sight and quit it before the buk has had the time to lock on target. The plane would really have to enter buk's sight square in the middle and then fly straight towards the buk.

 

I've talked to a guy in the .mil zone who served as a Buk commander in the ukrainian army and his words were that locking on target is no simple process and you need at least two trained operators, not just some afghan veterans who might've seen a buk from afar some 30 years ago. He said that although most the soviet hardware was designed in a way that even a monkey could operate it, the buk is an exception to the rule and you really need to have been trained on buk, even having general knowledge wouldn't be enough. Anyway, if what he says isn't entirely true, we don't know how much time it takes for buk to lock on target and fire, your source doesn't state it either. If it takes a minute, then those 20km in front of it are reduced to a small corridor of a few kilometers in width.

 

My point is, we just don't know much. What we do know is that Ukraine gains a lot from this, and rebels gain nothing. They had no motivation to shoot at a commercial plane, and they were fully aware of the fact that there were a lot of commercial planes over Donetsk. And another thing - Ukrainian army damage all their equipment if they have to abandon it, so it's completely believable that the buk the rebels looted doesn't even work. And this is what they've been saying all along too.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Bester

[Gromnir]

32km... not 20km. just over 32km actually.

 

 

http://www.nationalelectronicsmuseum.org/firedome.shtml

 

"I've talked to a guy in the .mil zone who served as a Buk commander..."

 

*chuckle*

 

ok, am not gonna touch that. Gromnir dated a marine for over a year. nice girl, but her father were fbi and he and Gromnir only ever got along when surfing... long story. anywho, we do not claim any particular military acumen or knowledge based on pillow talk with our ex. you wanna rely on similar such doggerel, then be our guest, but that is where we stopped reading.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Bester]

My source said 25km and not 32km, but not as a distance around buk, but as a distance directly FROM buk. If we convert it through Pythagoras's theorem at the Boeing's altitude, we get something like 20km. Anyway, you can clearly see the problem - it is that we don't know much. I admit it and I don't see why you need to jump to any conclusions. There will be an investigation after all.

[Agiel]

120 degrees azimuth is far from an insignificant amount of airspace to be able to scan. Also, I can guarantee that if the rebels had one, there's at least 180 degrees bearing it isn't pointed in.

[Bester]

120 degrees azimuth is far from an insignificant amount of airspace to be able to scan. Also, I can guarantee that if the rebels had one, there's at least 180 degrees bearing it isn't pointed in.

Nah.

Here, I drew on the map how much airspace a working radarless buk would cover.

 

I placed it in the middle of nowhere so you can easily see it, but try imagining putting it somewhere else. First of all, in many places they're encircled, so pointing it in just one direction leaves the flanks and the back open. And second, the airspace covered is too tiny. Their few tanks and troops are extended over the whole length of the front line, so a single buk would basically be a drop in the ocean, they need at least a dozen of those to nullify enemy's air supremacy.

 

Edited July 23, 2014 by Bester

[Gromnir]

My source said 25km and not 32km, but not as a distance around buk, but as a distance directly FROM buk. If we convert it through Pythagoras's theorem at the Boeing's altitude, we get something like 20km. Anyway, you can clearly see the problem - it is that we don't know much. I admit it and I don't see why you need to jump to any conclusions. There will be an investigation after all.

eh? not sure which you want, but either way it ain't anywhere close to 20km.

 

am assuming height is a constant o' 10km. if you wanna make hypotenuse 32 km , then length would be ~30.5km? yes?  switch and make 32 km the length on your triangle and that ends up with a hypotenuse o' over 33.5 km.  is not 20km no matter how we figure it. at 16 km per minute, there is clear more than enough time to spot a target at 10km and fire. 

 

is no conclusions being jumped to save that some folks see some craziness somewhere trying to tell'em that sa-11 couldn't possible be the weapon 'cause of (insert newest rt televised theory here,) and person jumps to the conclusion that craziness is true.  "anything is possible" only applies to fantasy stories and perhaps the 1969 mets. 

 

as you say, the investigation will continue, but possible range o' the buk won't change regardless... and some folks in eastern europe will disregard anything they hears from a western news source regardless. 

 

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2013/0222/Was-Chelyabinsk-meteor-actually-a-meteor-Many-Russians-don-t-think-so.-video

 

adding link again.

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Gorgon]

So now we are running simulations. What is this, reddit ?

 

[Bester]

Gromnir, come on.

1- your source is not any more reliable than mine. IHS Jane's is not originally a source, somebody who got printed on Janes is the source, but we don't know who. Where did he serve, did he operate buks, where did he get his information from? For example, it's entirely possible that a guy served in a unit that had buks, but didn't operate one. Anyway, Janes provided more or less the same info as my source, except for a slight difference between 32 and 25km. Not that significant in our discussion anyway. I might as well concede that it's 32 since it changes nothing.

2- your source doesn't say how much time it takes to lock on target and fire. You assume it's fast, but your assumption is based on nothing. My source says it takes 1-2 minutes because of bad controls.

3- we don't know if the rebels could've done it simply because we don't even know if their buk is even functioning or they have operators.

 

So yeah, theoretically it could be them, but the chances aren't that high, because the moons would've had to align for them to do it. Kiev on the other hand had got 27 buks with radars around Donetsk the day the plane crashed. They've kept buks in the area since the rebels managed to get a damaged frogfoot.

 

So, to recap.

Rebels: maybe had a working buk, would've had to have been very lucky in placing the buk just under the Boeing, would've been very lucky to have actual buk operators

Kiev: has buks, has operators, has motives, kills ~200 civilians daily and doesn't care

 

The investigation, if it's led by Europe or Malaysia, might show who did it (if it's led by the US it's no good). Until then, it's just empty guesses. Good night.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Bester

[Gromnir]

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/obstinate

 

to be fair, we don't have proof that obstinate means what websters says. after all, how does we trust them? they ain't an original source neither. what makes them so special? lexicography is clear a sham... a conspiracy o' pundits... or perhaps aliens. yeah, aliens. 

 

*eye roll*

 

you get agiel's simulation and literal dozens o' experts, and janes and lord knows how many governments chiming in to support the notion that a sa-11 could shoot down the airplane. lord only knows where bester's info actually comes from, but just saying "nuh uh," over and over is not a compelling argument. 

 

and again, 'cause this were missed, for the ukranians with their full buk system to be the culprits they woulda' needed travel to some backwater ukranian town controlled by separatists, and then fire 'pon a passenger plane and then escape separatist controlled territory unnoticed. is mind-boggling. 

 

HA! Good Fun!

[Junai]

What are all those perfectly intact bodies doing among the charred debris? Why aren't the bodies burned? And what's with the naked bodies? Surely the dutch don't fly naked. As for the demonized separatist with the teddybear portrayed in most western papers, supposedly the guy crossed himself and cursed the evildoers afterwards. Never heard about that in my newspaper. Gotto go through "conspiracy central" on Youtube these days to get a balanced picture of what's going on.

[Zoraptor]

You'll forgive me if it seems tasteless of me to illustrate the tragedy using a computer game.

 

Nah, it's a good game, and a useful illustration. It is an abstraction, but then so is anything except what actually happened. The approximate front lines and important place names would be useful though, for obvious reasons.

 

But in any case I don't think there's much disputation that the rebels may- or even probably- shot the airliner down, nevertheless that accusation has to be actually proven and it hasn't been. The rebels need to have the relevant capability, skills to use it, it has to be functional and, most importantly they need to have actually fired it and hit MH17. First seems likely, next two are still unproven, the last and most important one has no actual proof at all, at this point. There are plenty of theories, plenty of assertions but as it stands there's less actual evidence than the Iraq WMD case from 2003. Any alternative has been dismissed out of hand, and most on the mere say so a directly involved party, Ukraine. For example, I find it literally incredible that they have no SAM coverage in the area. An S300 stationed near as far back as Dneprop' could theoretically have hit it, one anywhere near any part of the front line definitely could, let alone their own Buks, which contrary to their claims have been seen near the front lines (Slaviansk)- and, they have repeatedly said that there are Russian planes crossing the border including allegedly shooting down one sukhoi earlier on the day MH17 was shot down, so they do have (at least in theory) a good reason for having SAM coverage.

 

On a side note, I do find it rather funny and completely indicative of press attitudes that the sukhoi being shot down today were initially being described as being the rebels violating the ceasefire zone around the crash, as if flying military jets through it wasn't also a violation, and a prior one.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Zoraptor

[Chilloutman]

hmm bad for separatists:

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/23/us-ukraine-crisis-commander-exclusive-idUSKBN0FS1V920140723

[Bester]

hmm bad for separatists:

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/23/us-ukraine-crisis-commander-exclusive-idUSKBN0FS1V920140723

 

>may have originated

>could have been sent back

 

 

Heh, proofs of steel.

 

 

And now this: Donetsk Commander Khodakovsky Denies Telling Media Militia Had Buk Missiles During MH17 Crash

 

Khodakovsky denied having told Reuters that militia forces possessed Buk missiles when the Malaysia airliner  crashed in the region, RT television channel reported Thursday.

"We were discussing theories but one simple phrase was cutting throughout like a red line that I do not have the information on militia possessing such kind of a weapon," Khodakovsky said in an interview with RT, or Russia Today.

 

Reuters is known for occasional screw ups.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Bester

[Bester]

and again, 'cause this were missed, for the ukranians with their full buk system to be the culprits they woulda' needed travel to some backwater ukranian town controlled by separatists, and then fire 'pon a passenger plane and then escape separatist controlled territory unnoticed. is mind-boggling. 

 

Whatever gave you that idea? You don't know where the missile was launched from, nobody does, it could've been launched from anywhere. There is also a version of air to air missile. Nobody knows anything at this stage.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Bester

[Sarex]

What's funny is that one point it was said that the missile was fired from the Russian border.

[Bester]

Ukranda is confirmed to be a third world country.

 

This is exactly why I hate slavs.

 

>Some footage shot at the scene appears to show one militant taking a ring and putting it in a paper bag.

 

And this is why I hate press. First of all, show me that footage if you have it. Second of all, gathering things and putting them in a bag is exactly how you treat a scene. You need to gather a thing first in order to give it back to the relatives. Got to love how they can't openly accuse anyone, but do their best to imply an idea because they're journalists and it's their job not to be objective.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Bester

[Bester]

Kiev army on the right. Nice treating of civilians.

 

[JadedWolf]

Reports are coming in from people who have lost family in the crash, and have found their loved ones credit cards and phones have been used after the crash.

 

But I am sure the usual suspects will decry it all as Western propaganda again.

 

This forum really needs a tinfoil hat emote at this rate.

[Chilloutman]

Ukranda is confirmed to be a third world country.

 

This is exactly why I hate slavs.

 

>Some footage shot at the scene appears to show one militant taking a ring and putting it in a paper bag.

 

And this is why I hate press. First of all, show me that footage if you have it. Second of all, gathering things and putting them in a bag is exactly how you treat a scene. You need to gather a thing first in order to give it back to the relatives. Got to love how they can't openly accuse anyone, but do their best to imply an idea because they're journalists and it's their job not to be objective.

 

this sounds racist! just kidding, cant even bother with you bester

[Malcador]

Reports are coming in from people who have lost family in the crash, and have found their loved ones credit cards and phones have been used after the crash.

 

But I am sure the usual suspects will decry it all as Western propaganda again.

 

This forum really needs a tinfoil hat emote at this rate.

 

Eh, can see that happening everywhere, people being people - lucky most places have the crash site secured or in a desolate area I guess, but I guess we're to be outraged about these bad rebel devils. 

 

Hey, it could still be propaganda, no names given

 

Also  http://www.rferl.org/media/video/ukraine-rebel-commander-buk-missile/25468569.html?nocache=1

 

Interview with the seperatist leader

Edited July 24, 2014 by Malcador

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

Reports are coming in from people who have lost family in the crash, and have found their loved ones credit cards and phones have been used after the crash.

 

But I am sure the usual suspects will decry it all as Western propaganda again.

 

This forum really needs a tinfoil hat emote at this rate.