Boko Haram and the kidnpping of the school girls

[BruceVC]

 

 

bruce forgot to address how he wants the military to stop the terrorist actions in northern nigeria.  how does you suspect a western military coalition would defeat boko haram without any long-term presence in the region? what does you identify as the military assets o' a terrorist group when they will strap explosives to a teenage girl and then blow her up in the middle of a crowd? in gaza, hamas used a freaking donkey bomb? you sure as hell ain't gonna target every teen-aged girl and donkey in northern nigeria.

 

oh, and north-west nigeria alone accounts for 25% o' the total population o' nigeria... which would make population in that region alone to be at +43 million? assuming for a second that a military operation could go in and defeat boko haram, what sorta police force would be needed to secure the region until nigeria showed the wherewithal and the ability to do so on its own? is a complete arbitrary number, but be generous and assume that 2/3 o' the temporary police force in north-west nigeria would be handled by nigerians... and that is just north-west nigeria.  am doing a good bit of rounding down, but if 20 police per 1,000 is accurate for a stabilizing force, and we is only asking for west to supply 1/3 o' that force (a mistake the US made in iraq were assuming that the locals would supply the bulk o' police,) then according to the study we linked earlier, something in excess o' 250,000 foreign troops would be required.

 

nigeria is a nightmare situation insofar as foreign military involvement is concerned. it took days for boko haram to slaughter those people in baga. the nigerian government either didn't know about the massacre and/or it ignored what were occurring in baga. 

 

not fun.

I agree this is not a simple situation and you have raised some reasonable logistical challenges that would face any military  force 

 

But there are several major differences between a military mission in Nigeria and lets say Afghanistan

 

• Boko Haram really only operate in 3 states in NE Nigeria so the area where they are in is not as large as you think? Still challenging, but not unmanageable 
• If there was a consolidated effort to address the threat of Boko Haram ( BH )neighbours like Cameroon and Chad would assist by  working  to close the various  border crossings. So unlike the Taliban who could basically safely cross into Pakistan to avoid having to face the US troops this escape mechanism would be much harder for BH
• BH seems to be using the vast Sambisa foret as there real place of operation. So with Nigerian trackers  and a Western military force this forest could surely be entered and BH could be engaged ? As that is where there real military camps seem to be based 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/29/nigeria-sambisa-forest-boko-haram-hideout-kidnapped-school-girls-believed-to-be-held

 

• BH does have an official leader, the brutal Abubakar Shekua. If you kill him that should also reduce their military effectiveness

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abubakar_Shekau

• But finally Gromnir I can't stress enough that the main reason for the seemingly ineffectual actions of the Nigerian military against BH is there lack of discipline, training  and there low morale. If you bring a military force that is motivated and properly trained we would see a different result 

 

So yes I agree there are challengers with any military mission but don't think that the issues that would face a Western military force in Nigeria are insurmountable. I firmly believe they would be effective over a period of 8-12 months 

 

dunno. iraq had a single leader and a far smaller population than has nigeria. also, the lack of discipline, training and morale make us shudder when we consider how much help the nigerians would be with the necessary security force that would be required to help maintain order after the western infidels showed up to help drive boko haram into hiding.

 

oh, but at least we will stop referencing north west nigeria when we were meaning to describe north east. sheesh. baga is about as north east as one can possibly be in nigeria after all.

 

keep in mind that we believe nigeria needs help, and what is going on in nigeria deserves more attention, but at the moment, we don't see any quick fixes or solutions, and am doubtful that a likely half-arsed western military intervention would do more than galvanize the islamic extremists in the region.

 

this is another one o' those situations where when we is asked what we thinks should be done, we feels like slapping folks silly.  our gut-level reaction is to respond with a question o' our own:  "why didn't you ask that question in 2009-10?"  am not speaking o' bruce, insofar as the slapping is concerned, but boko haram were a small problem in 2009.  is 4 or 5 years ago that this problem shoulda' been addressed. 

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps killing the leader of a terrorist organization has some value, but is arguable Not the best strategic option. the whole point o' a terrorist cell system is that independent cells can function, well, independently.  no doubt there is great value in a single charismatic leader that can bring followers to a cause, but kill leader o' a terrorist organization would not be our goal. identify such a leader, find as many links 'tween him and other cells as possible, and then exhaust all the information one can through observations o' his operations, communications and intermediaries. kill such a leader may be necessary for political reasons, but is bad strategy in our estimation.  removal of a leader in a cell structure is not the same as taking the head from the snake.

 

 

 

 

 

bruce forgot to address how he wants the military to stop the terrorist actions in northern nigeria.  how does you suspect a western military coalition would defeat boko haram without any long-term presence in the region? what does you identify as the military assets o' a terrorist group when they will strap explosives to a teenage girl and then blow her up in the middle of a crowd? in gaza, hamas used a freaking donkey bomb? you sure as hell ain't gonna target every teen-aged girl and donkey in northern nigeria.

 

oh, and north-west nigeria alone accounts for 25% o' the total population o' nigeria... which would make population in that region alone to be at +43 million? assuming for a second that a military operation could go in and defeat boko haram, what sorta police force would be needed to secure the region until nigeria showed the wherewithal and the ability to do so on its own? is a complete arbitrary number, but be generous and assume that 2/3 o' the temporary police force in north-west nigeria would be handled by nigerians... and that is just north-west nigeria.  am doing a good bit of rounding down, but if 20 police per 1,000 is accurate for a stabilizing force, and we is only asking for west to supply 1/3 o' that force (a mistake the US made in iraq were assuming that the locals would supply the bulk o' police,) then according to the study we linked earlier, something in excess o' 250,000 foreign troops would be required.

 

nigeria is a nightmare situation insofar as foreign military involvement is concerned. it took days for boko haram to slaughter those people in baga. the nigerian government either didn't know about the massacre and/or it ignored what were occurring in baga. 

 

not fun.

I agree this is not a simple situation and you have raised some reasonable logistical challenges that would face any military  force 

 

But there are several major differences between a military mission in Nigeria and lets say Afghanistan

 

• Boko Haram really only operate in 3 states in NE Nigeria so the area where they are in is not as large as you think? Still challenging, but not unmanageable 
• If there was a consolidated effort to address the threat of Boko Haram ( BH )neighbours like Cameroon and Chad would assist by  working  to close the various  border crossings. So unlike the Taliban who could basically safely cross into Pakistan to avoid having to face the US troops this escape mechanism would be much harder for BH
• BH seems to be using the vast Sambisa foret as there real place of operation. So with Nigerian trackers  and a Western military force this forest could surely be entered and BH could be engaged ? As that is where there real military camps seem to be based 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/29/nigeria-sambisa-forest-boko-haram-hideout-kidnapped-school-girls-believed-to-be-held

 

• BH does have an official leader, the brutal Abubakar Shekua. If you kill him that should also reduce their military effectiveness

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abubakar_Shekau

• But finally Gromnir I can't stress enough that the main reason for the seemingly ineffectual actions of the Nigerian military against BH is there lack of discipline, training  and there low morale. If you bring a military force that is motivated and properly trained we would see a different result 

 

So yes I agree there are challengers with any military mission but don't think that the issues that would face a Western military force in Nigeria are insurmountable. I firmly believe they would be effective over a period of 8-12 months 

 

dunno. iraq had a single leader and a far smaller population than has nigeria. also, the lack of discipline, training and morale make us shudder when we consider how much help the nigerians would be with the necessary security force that would be required to help maintain order after the western infidels showed up to help drive boko haram into hiding.

 

oh, but at least we will stop referencing north west nigeria when we were meaning to describe north east. sheesh. baga is about as north east as one can possibly be in nigeria after all.

 

keep in mind that we believe nigeria needs help, and what is going on in nigeria deserves more attention, but at the moment, we don't see any quick fixes or solutions, and am doubtful that a likely half-arsed western military intervention would do more than galvanize the islamic extremists in the region.

 

this is another one o' those situations where when we is asked what we thinks should be done, we feels like slapping folks silly.  our gut-level reaction is to respond with a question o' our own:  "why didn't you ask that question in 2009-10?"  am not speking o' bruce, insofar as the slapping is concerned, but boko haram were a small problem in 2009.  is 4 or 5 years ago that this problem shoulda' been addressed. 

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

ps killing the leader of a terrorist organization has some value, but is arguable Not the best strategic option. the whole point o' a terrorist cell system is that independent cells can function, well, independently.  no doubt there is great value in a single charismatic leader that can bring followers to a cause, but kill leader o' a terrorist organization would not be our goal. identify such a leader, find as many links 'tween him and other cells as possible, and then exhaust all the information one can through observations o' his operations, communications and intermediaries. kill such a leader may be necessary for political reasons, but is bad strategy in our estimation.  removal of a leader in a cell structure is not the same as taking the head from the snake.

 

 

Interesting development, I see the UN have offered to help Nigeria end the threat of BH 

 

http://www.greenbreporters.com/home/foreign/united-nations-offers-help-nigeria-end-boko-haram-war.html

 

 

I wonder, if anything, what this will translate to? As you mentioned this threat could have been resolved years ago but the lackluster response from the Nigerian government has emboldened BH. And the Nigerian government still doesn't seem that concerned, the president of Nigeria still hasn't made an official statement about the massacre of the 2000 civilians 

 

So I want to see what happens now ?

 

 

 

For I still think if the Nigerian government is not that 

[Gromnir]

no doubt the UN is mobilizing OCHA, UNICEF, UNHCR, WFP and the WHO. set up some refugee camps in chad perhaps or cameroon?

 

well, something is better than nothing.

[TrashMan]

I believe fundamentally that machinery of politics can be as dirty as a coalmine full of Hustlers, it still doesn't quite compare to what has actually happened. And I tend to agree with Bruce that if this had happened to white schoolkids there would be a lot less apathy.

 

Apathy from whom?

 

To me, the reaction would be the same if it happened in the US or in Nigeria. Both countries are far away from me. The only difference is that I would be more surprised for something like that to happen in the US.

 

The "closer to home" things happen, the more impact they have on a person.

[TrashMan]

Doesn't the Japanese Defense Force have a special unit for this?

 

Yes, they do.

 

 

http://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/35900000/Super-Sentai-tokusatsu-35908144-325-183.gif

 

 

The enemy is paralyzed* when they arrive.

 

 

 

 

 

*with laughter

Edited January 13, 2015 by TrashMan

[Malcador]

is not requiring hostility towards the security force that demands such numbers.  the majority o' the populations in somalia and afghanastan and even iraq were not actual hostile to US forces. were there elements within those populations that were violently anti-US? yes, very much so. the study we linked observes that any stability force on foreign soil is going to face significant challenges that require considerable man-power. surprisingly, the number o' overt hostiles is more likely to factor into the time-frame for possible withdrawal rather than the actual manpower requirements. also, please note that the nigerian government were completely ineffectual at stopping or even impeding the massacre at baga. try and consider just how impotent a western government would need be for that sorta thing to happen.  

 

the numbers o' actual boko haram members in northern nigeria is not what is going to make northern nigeria a hostile environment for a security force. the knowledge within the populace that the current nigerian government is ineffectual in protecting them will make the environment no less dangerous than somalia, afghanastan or iraq were when US and/or UN forces arrived in those places.  it takes small numbers o' terrorists to destabilize a populace. the fact that a foreign security force is required to establish order is, sadly, proof that the terrorists is vital and that the established government is not. fighting terrorists with soldiers turns criminals into holy warriors in the eyes o' many potential recruits. is no less significant for the less extremist majority within the native populations to see foreign forces as initially legitimizing those being fought as 'posed to the s'posed government.

 

keep in mind that the numbers we suggest is Extreme conservative. we is assuming that the security force need only maintain order in north-west nigeria (a pipe dream) and that the nigerians who failed to even recognize the events in baga will be able to contribute 2/3 o' the necessary security force (unlikely).

 

but again, military intervention is rare successful when dealing with such groups... even when it appears all other options has been exhausted and one is left with nothing but military action.

 

am doubting anybody in the west wants any part o' nigeria's problems, but the way many western governments and news agencies is giving so little attention to the events in sub-saharan africa is troublesome to us.

Not quite sure the examples are comparable, Somalia in 92, perhaps - though that country was shattered thoroughly at the point.  Oddly, the Marines present calmed the city (and the US may or may not have inflamed things via TOW missile, anyway).  But wasn't implying they'd get the roses and hugs, necessarily, but that there wouldn't be a simmering insurgency they need to combat.  I would hope BH is not popular with Nigerians, but I suppose if they were that changes things. 

 

As for tackling them outside, a military approach could work.  Just have to hope you kill a lot before they are driven underground.  But at that point they won't be getting audacious as they are and starting to threaten neighbouring countries.

 

That and seeing one of these kill crazy African militias run up against a proper military is something I've always wanted to see.

[BruceVC]

 

is not requiring hostility towards the security force that demands such numbers.  the majority o' the populations in somalia and afghanastan and even iraq were not actual hostile to US forces. were there elements within those populations that were violently anti-US? yes, very much so. the study we linked observes that any stability force on foreign soil is going to face significant challenges that require considerable man-power. surprisingly, the number o' overt hostiles is more likely to factor into the time-frame for possible withdrawal rather than the actual manpower requirements. also, please note that the nigerian government were completely ineffectual at stopping or even impeding the massacre at baga. try and consider just how impotent a western government would need be for that sorta thing to happen.  

 

the numbers o' actual boko haram members in northern nigeria is not what is going to make northern nigeria a hostile environment for a security force. the knowledge within the populace that the current nigerian government is ineffectual in protecting them will make the environment no less dangerous than somalia, afghanastan or iraq were when US and/or UN forces arrived in those places.  it takes small numbers o' terrorists to destabilize a populace. the fact that a foreign security force is required to establish order is, sadly, proof that the terrorists is vital and that the established government is not. fighting terrorists with soldiers turns criminals into holy warriors in the eyes o' many potential recruits. is no less significant for the less extremist majority within the native populations to see foreign forces as initially legitimizing those being fought as 'posed to the s'posed government.

 

keep in mind that the numbers we suggest is Extreme conservative. we is assuming that the security force need only maintain order in north-west nigeria (a pipe dream) and that the nigerians who failed to even recognize the events in baga will be able to contribute 2/3 o' the necessary security force (unlikely).

 

but again, military intervention is rare successful when dealing with such groups... even when it appears all other options has been exhausted and one is left with nothing but military action.

 

am doubting anybody in the west wants any part o' nigeria's problems, but the way many western governments and news agencies is giving so little attention to the events in sub-saharan africa is troublesome to us.

Not quite sure the examples are comparable, Somalia in 92, perhaps - though that country was shattered thoroughly at the point.  Oddly, the Marines present calmed the city (and the US may or may not have inflamed things via TOW missile, anyway).  But wasn't implying they'd get the roses and hugs, necessarily, but that there wouldn't be a simmering insurgency they need to combat.  I would hope BH is not popular with Nigerians, but I suppose if they were that changes things. 

 

As for tackling them outside, a military approach could work.  Just have to hope you kill a lot before they are driven underground.  But at that point they won't be getting audacious as they are and starting to threaten neighbouring countries.

 

That and seeing one of these kill crazy African militias run up against a proper military is something I've always wanted to see.

 

 

No BH is extremely unpopular in Nigeria so its not like Al-Shabaab in Somalia....so there would be no repeat of Black Hawk Down

 

And there have been several examples of Western forces successfully defeating African militias. These inlcude

 

• The French in Mali : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Mali_conflict#U.N._Peacekeeping_Force
• British SAS against the West Side Boys : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Barras
• Various military missions by Executive Outcomes in Western Africa  :  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Outcomes

[Valsuelm]

 the president of Nigeria still hasn't made an official statement about the massacre of the 2000 civilians 

 

Perhaps because it's not clear that ~2000 civilians were even massacred yet. Reports range from 'at least one hundred' to 'over 2000', with no one as yet confirming what exactly even happened.

[BruceVC]

 

 the president of Nigeria still hasn't made an official statement about the massacre of the 2000 civilians 

 

Perhaps because it's not clear that ~2000 civilians were even massacred yet. Reports range from 'at least one hundred' to 'over 2000', with no one as yet confirming what exactly even happened.

 

 

I saw that today , its unclear how many people who massacred...well  the Nigerian government is denying it was 2000

 

But he still  has made no statement even if the number was 150. He is getting loads of deserved criticism for his general disinterest in dealing with BH and its very surprising considering the fact its election time in Nigeria 

Edited January 13, 2015 by BruceVC

[Gromnir]

 

 the president of Nigeria still hasn't made an official statement about the massacre of the 2000 civilians 

 

Perhaps because it's not clear that ~2000 civilians were even massacred yet. Reports range from 'at least one hundred' to 'over 2000', with no one as yet confirming what exactly even happened.

 

well, if only 100 people were killed...

 

wait. what are you saying?  

 

folks should self-edit before posting. 

 

HA! Good Fun!

[BruceVC]

 

 

 the president of Nigeria still hasn't made an official statement about the massacre of the 2000 civilians 

 

Perhaps because it's not clear that ~2000 civilians were even massacred yet. Reports range from 'at least one hundred' to 'over 2000', with no one as yet confirming what exactly even happened.

 

well, if only 100 people were killed...

 

wait. what are you saying?  

 

folks should self-edit before posting. 

 

HA! Good Fun!

 

 

Well exactly this is my point, even if the latest massacre is 150 people there have been at least a dozen mass killings by BH over the last 3 years. Even one attack is too many

 

And the lack of meaningful action by the Nigerian government just exacerbates the situation 

[Wrath of Dagon]

 

I'm afraid the tide of Islamism will not be turned back unless US is forced to intervene militarily in a big way.

 

 

I don't joke about terrorism, and this is approaching genocide.

[Gromnir]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/01/14/did-boko-haram-attack-leave-150-dead-or-2000-satellite-imagery-sheds-new-light/

[Valsuelm]

 

 

I'm afraid the tide of Islamism will not be turned back unless US is forced to intervene militarily in a big way.

 

 

I don't joke about terrorism, and this is approaching genocide.

 

 

So we have Bruce jumping on the ~2,000 bandwagon before it's confirmed (it very well may be confirmed at some point), and now you're talking genocide (which will not be confirmed anytime remotely soon because it isn't happening). Exaggerate much?

 

That said, yea.. Boko is bad news. But you guys don't need to get all emotionally exaggerative to point that out. Boko isn't the end of the world, nor even the end of Nigeria. I'm sure you have local tragedies that you could possibly do something about that warrants your attention far more than tragedies half way around the world or 1000+ miles and 4+ nations to your north.

[Malcador]

If only people could multitask.

[Wrath of Dagon]

May be it's not genocide yet, but IS would like it to become one : http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/01/18/german-embed-reporter-isis-plans-on-killing-hundreds-of-millions-in-religious-cleansing/

[Orogun01]

May be it's not genocide yet, but IS would like it to become one : http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/01/18/german-embed-reporter-isis-plans-on-killing-hundreds-of-millions-in-religious-cleansing/

Has the West blocked travel to the area? 

[Valsuelm]

May be it's not genocide yet, but IS would like it to become one : http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/01/18/german-embed-reporter-isis-plans-on-killing-hundreds-of-millions-in-religious-cleansing/

 

That's got about as much credibility and substance as the average idiot who says 'let's nuke all dem towelheads and be done with it!'. Yea.. you could say that idiot is a potential genocidal maniac as well, and unfortunately there's no shortage of such idiots out there. I could hop in my car right now, travel to almost any bar with people in it out there, bring up Muslims and the middle east, and it would be almost guaranteed that some idiot would say that or something like it, of course not even realizing that most Muslims in the middle east don't wear turbans. But that guy doesn't realize much.

 

I'm about as worried that ISIS will accomplish such a genocidal goal as the aforementioned average idiot will accomplish his. You shouldn't be any more worried either.

Edited January 19, 2015 by Valsuelm

[Volourn]

The idiot is one guy drinking with his friends acting tough and crap spouting ignorant bullcrap.

 

ISIS is an army with weapons who have taken over cities and have a history of mass murder.

 

GREAT COMPARISON.

[Walsingham]

The one area of foreign policy I agree with the Obama administration on is the notion that the nations with these jihadi problems have to be the ones to fix them. The only way to bury an idea is through the kind of confrontation and folk memory that only happens if you are the buggers doing the actual fighting.

[Volourn]

"The one area of foreign policy I agree with the Obama administration on is the notion that the nations with these jihadi problems have to be the ones to fix them. The only way to bury an idea is through the kind of confrontation and folk memory that only happens if you are the buggers doing the actual fighting."

 

I agree. Therefore, if I see someone being mugged, I won't help because they should help themselves. 

[Malcador]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/13/world/africa/nigerias-fight-against-boko-haram-gets-help-from-south-african-mercenaries.html?ref=world&_r=0

 

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2015/03/nigeria-foreign-mercenaries-boko-haram-150313122039403.html

 

Not a surprise really that mercenaries are involved.

Edited March 13, 2015 by Malcador