Ongoing discussion of Ukraine

[Mor]

Simon Ostrovsky released after being held for more than 48 hours. Great news to say the least even if he is a bit worse for wear after the ordeal. Though after two close calls I don't think anyone would think less of him if he called it quits now.

 

His latest video, albeit some time before his captivity and relating more to the shootout a few days ago attributed by pro-Russian elements to Right Sector:

 

Concerning that detention, I wont be surprised if it is the same thing we recently seen in Crimea (and more notoriously in Chechnya), where unsympathetic journalist receive rough treatment.

 

As for the video it reminded me american action movies, where the bad guys always has AK47, here the "bad guys" are always has roll of dollars in their pocket and the "good guys" always fighting the fascists I also like how while the police have done any investigative work and yet the "people mayor" had convenient cache of evidence few hours after the fact.

 

EDIT: on unrelated note, for once we actually have believable pro-Russia gun men, unlike that "local" self defense crap, who at the very least were outfitted in Russia barracks..

Edited April 24, 2014 by Mor

[BruceVC]

@Malc: thanks for the link, I wasn't aware of that. We'll see how long before this new offensive stalls.

 

 

 

Tell me something 2133 what in your opinion is the most effective way to resolve the Ukrainian crisis? What needs to happen to restore peace?

Dismemberment of the Ukrainian state, subjugation to Russia, continued economic deterioration, restoration of Yanukovych oligarchy, you know, the works.

 

 

 

You got me. If Ukraine once again becomes part of the Motherland, I stand to gain a promotion to Senior Colonel with the FSB for my valiant efforts in the Obsidian Entertainment Forums, and you know what that means—I'll actually get to use the restroom instead of pissing in a bucket when nobody is looking.

 

Seriously though, I haven't the slightest idea how to solve this at this point. But I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that sending in the army is not the best solution (assuming it's a solution at all). There's also the irony that these uprisings are A-OK to crush under a soldier's boot, but those in Kiev a few months ago weren't.

 

As I mentioned I also don't have the best solution. For example a federal solution for parts of eastern Ukraine won't be accepted by the Ukrainian government and I can understand why. But then we need to ask " is it worth raising the military tensions with Russia over Ukraine" or getting to the point where there is full blown civil war in Ukraine between Russia and the current Ukrainian government. This is where it is leading

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/04/23/russia-ukraine_n_5199344.html

 

Exactly what myself and others predicted is happening. Russia is fermenting tension in the East and then they will invade to "protect there citizens"

 

This is the worst outcome because what will the West do? I hate to say this but would it not just be better to accept that eastern Ukraine is part of Russia after this invasion. Because after Russia annexes  certain parts of Ukraine the only thing that would deter them would be Western military intervention....and do we really want that?

 

But then the West needs to put the stake in the ground and any further annexation of other parts of Ukraine by Russia needs to absolutely prevented at all costs. This may sound like the historical appeasement of Hitler but the context is different

[Rostere]

The best way to end this conflict in the current situation is in my mind to hold a referendum in Eastern Ukraine. The Kiev government need to push for this and the moderate movements need to restrain the extremists from the Right Sector. So they have organized a "National Guard" which is not part of the regular army? This is baaad news. Way better is to send the regular army to negotiate, and if they won't fire at rebels, then that is all for the better. The more violence we get, the more we will destabilize the region. The stupid Ukrainian nationalists probably don't realize they are just playing into Putin's hands by trying to quash the rebellion with force.

 

But really, what Ukraine would need first before caring about Eastern Ukraine is new elections in the entire country. A violent situation complicates that. Who knows, had they pushed to hold elections earlier we might have avoided this entire crisis in Eastern Ukraine.

[BruceVC]

The best way to end this conflict in the current situation is in my mind to hold a referendum in Eastern Ukraine. The Kiev government need to push for this and the moderate movements need to restrain the extremists from the Right Sector. So they have organized a "National Guard" which is not part of the regular army? This is baaad news. Way better is to send the regular army to negotiate, and if they won't fire at rebels, then that is all for the better. The more violence we get, the more we will destabilize the region. The stupid Ukrainian nationalists probably don't realize they are just playing into Putin's hands by trying to quash the rebellion with force.

 

But really, what Ukraine would need first before caring about Eastern Ukraine is new elections in the entire country. A violent situation complicates that. Who knows, had they pushed to hold elections earlier we might have avoided this entire crisis in Eastern Ukraine.

 

I really glad you raised the point about a referendum in Eastern Ukraine. That is the obvious solution and I missed it. But it needs to be  monitored by Western and Russian observers so its credible. Not like the joke of a referendum in Crimea

 

And you are right, by attacking pro-Russian supporters they are doing exactly what Putin wants and now he has a pretence to invade and basically annex what parts of Eastern Ukraine "Russian speaking citizens are being attacked in"

 

 Putin is a brilliant strategist I'll give him that

[Tagaziel]

But really, what Ukraine would need first before caring about Eastern Ukraine is new elections in the entire country. A violent situation complicates that. Who knows, had they pushed to hold elections earlier we might have avoided this entire crisis in Eastern Ukraine.

The elections are a month away. The insurgency in eastern Ukraine is a convenient method for dismissing the election results by Russia, to be honest. I wouldn't really suggest expediting the elections even more, though, as then you run into the travesties like the Crimean "referendum".

 

As for the National Guard, they're apparently reactivating an old formation from 1991, so it's not created ex nihilo. Probably an attempt to put formal controls on the militias that formed around the Maidan.

 

Ros, do you have a concrete source on the scale of desertions? Can't find a reliable source.

[obyknven]

Kramatorsk. Military helicopter exploded in airport.

http://youtu.be/uQy6b5DsH4c

[213374U]

The best way to end this conflict in the current situation is in my mind to hold a referendum in Eastern Ukraine.

 

Yes but, a referendum... on what? Independence? Federalization? The Constitution doesn't allow for that—the indivisibility of Ukraine is promulgated throughout the document and amendments to the Constitution aimed at "violating" this indivisibility are explicitly forbidden. There is no such thing as a territorial referendum either, only an All-Ukrainian referendum that must be called on by the President and approved by a 2/3 majority of the Rada, complicating things even more; it's not just the government in Kiev that must be willing to resolve this by casting ballots, it's a majority of politicians and people in Ukraine.

 

Ukraine's Constitution is fairly rigid even by European standards, and it's designed first and foremost to guarantee the status quo. I don't disagree that a referendum would be a way out of the cul-de-sac the Kiev gov't has put the country in, but you can't just ignore the legal hurdles. Among other things because that would legitimize the Crimean referendum, which is a big no-no for Kiev (and the West).

 

Interestingly enough, you can no longer access the Constitution through the official website. The rest of the site seems to work fine. I wonder what's up with that.

Edited April 25, 2014 by 213374U

[obyknven]

Modern political map of Ukraine. Nulandistan is US colony. NovoRossian Republics (or Republics of New Russia) fight for independence against colonial administration in Kiev, ex-Romanian, ex-Hungarian and ex-Slovakian  territories do want flee from Nulandistan also. Even Western Ukraine dont want be part of Nulandistan and dreamed become part of Poland (but Polish government has no nuts for return these lands to yourself).

[Mor]

The best way to end this conflict in the current situation is in my mind to hold a referendum in Eastern Ukraine. The Kiev government need to push for this and the moderate movements need to restrain the extremists from the Right Sector. So they have organized a "National Guard" which is not part of the regular army? This is baaad news. Way better is to send the regular army to negotiate, and if they won't fire at rebels, then that is all for the better. The more violence we get, the more we will destabilize the region. The stupid Ukrainian nationalists probably don't realize they are just playing into Putin's hands by trying to quash the rebellion with force.

 

But really, what Ukraine would need first before caring about Eastern Ukraine is new elections in the entire country. A violent situation complicates that. Who knows, had they pushed to hold elections earlier we might have avoided this entire crisis in Eastern Ukraine.

I agree that violence play into the hands of Russia. IMO since the start of conflict Ukraine showed remarkable restrain(or sense, considering its playing buddy), but its problem is that its locked into catch 22, they can't afford to act and at the same time they can't afford not to..

 

In order to conduct the elections or any decision-making process they first need to restore order and stability. Considering that the majority of the population in Easter Ukraine is Russian speaking and its primary news outlet was in Russian, IMO it is impossible to stabilize the situation unless Russia decide they will allow it and lay off the propaganda and I haven't seen Russia show willingness todo so. For example the recent Geneva agreement was nothing but PR farce to try to clean its hands, while actually "Not a single Russian official has... called on the separatists to support the Geneva agreement, to support the stand-down, to give up their weapons and get out of the Ukrainian buildings". On top of that according to the western sources Russia continues to "fund, co-ordinate and fuel a heavily-armed separatist movement in Donetsk"(link)

 

Also while in hindsight early elections might seem like a good idea, I think we all know the effect of instability and media on electoral process, elections/referendum at this point would be farce with a predicable outcome like in Crimea. I assume that the idea was to restore stability, let emotions run dry and provide some semblance of discourse and debate. Which is hard at the moment when both sides see a complete different aspects of the situation.

 

Another thing to consider is that following Russia's real estate grab in Crimea, the ethnic Russian population become a weaker minority in Ukraine, they may not want or see political process as legitimate option preferring the allure of Russia slogans. (although pretty much they'll be joining into the poorest high in debt Russian region)

[obyknven]

In Slavjansk captured members of NATO  military forces. They spy upon positions of east-Ukrainian defence and send this info to colonial army. These spies use OSCE legend for covering of own actions, but they are not members of OSCE IRL. Eastern-Ukrainian authorities initiate a criminal investigation.

http://youtu.be/cEcpZ0vwrdk

[Walsingham]

Kramatorsk. Military helicopter exploded in airport.

 

 

Nice to see you cheering attempted murder, you bloodthirsty prick.

[obyknven]

 

Kramatorsk. Military helicopter exploded in airport.

 

 

Nice to see you cheering attempted murder, you bloodthirsty prick.

 

What a problem? This is war, violence begets violence. These Nazianal guards kill 5 people day ago, only during current night Nazianal guards attacks checkpoint and kill 2 police officers, 2 local militia members and one local citizen, 5 people are wounded.  It's  Kievan junta give criminal order to use army against own people, it's they send punishers to East-Ukraine. East Ukrainians only defend yourself from all this, they have right to this.

 

Most shameful thing is NATO  participation in this punitive operation, it's NATO give information about forces of East Ukrainians to Kievan junta, it's NATO military advisors plan these actions. You may be proud, every times when you hear about killed  Ukrainians in this "anti-terrorist operation" -  it's happened because your country do this. Though i forgot, NATO constantly kill citizens of invaded countries, this is must be ok for you.

[Hassat Hunter]

Nobody died... the same cant be said for the military operation the chopper was part of.

 

In more stupid moves of Kiev, they cut water to Crimea. Kiev/US seems to hunger for war... or is just extremely incompetant. Both are possible...

[obyknven]

Nobody died... the same cant be said for the military operation the chopper was part of.

 

In more stupid moves of Kiev, they cut water to Crimea. Kiev/US seems to hunger for war... or is just extremely incompetant. Both are possible...

If referendum is fake why Kiev punish Crimean people and cut water to them? It's rhetoric question, answer is obvious.

[Drowsy Emperor]

In Slavjansk captured members of NATO  military forces. They spy upon positions of east-Ukrainian defence and send this info to colonial army. These spies use OSCE legend for covering of own actions, but they are not members of OSCE IRL. Eastern-Ukrainian authorities initiate a criminal investigation.

http://youtu.be/cEcpZ0vwrdk

 

OSCE observers abused their "neutral" "observer" status during the Kosovo war to place locators on Serbian army positions for NATO. I hope they throw him in prison to rot.

[Drowsy Emperor]

As Socrates* (iirc) once said: If you insist that people should not use the term bossy are you being bossy yourself? : philosoraptor :

 

And why don't they try to keep their own dogs on a leash in Kiev?

Evidence suggests that that is the last thing the US wants- after all, the self appointed non democratic coup putsch junta etcetc regime has (re)commenced their "anti terror" operations the day following visits by the CIA chief and Joe Biden. Hardly seems that they have been urging restraint...

 

*Could have been Zico or even Pele, not sure

 

Samuel Huntington proposed the split up of Ukraine back in the 90's. If he "proposes" it, that means the US is working on it and satisfied with the outcome. I'm not thrilled by the idea of splitting up Ukraine.The best possible outcome would be for the Kiev junta to be deposed and statewide elections held. Don't ask me how, because with each passing day they become more entrenched. 

[Drowsy Emperor]

 

Dismemberment of the Ukrainian state, subjugation to Russia, continued economic deterioration, restoration of Yanukovych oligarchy, you know, the works.

Really ? No mention of Jews being ethnically cleansed, maybe a Soviet Union reborn while you were at it ?

 

I bet 213374U kicks dogs and is a Manchester United fan too!

 

 

It is well known that 2133 is the internet vanguard of God Emperor Putin. His will be done!

 

 

...I like Manchester United

Edited April 26, 2014 by Drowsy Emperor

[213374U]

Ostrovsky's first piece since his release: "I had it pretty easy, because I was let go"

 

So they nabbed him, roughed him up a bit, gave him the whole dank cellar treatment and then released him without explanation. Huh.

 

In other news, Slovakia to provide gas to Ukraine. A token gesture, from the looks of it. Nowhere near enough to guarantee Ukraine's supply for next winter if Russia decides to cut them off, and Slovakia doesn't want to risk breaking their agreement with Gazprom.

[Mor]

Ostrovsky's first piece since his release: "I had it pretty easy, because I was let go"

 

So they nabbed him, roughed him up a bit, gave him the whole dank cellar treatment and then released him without explanation. Huh.

Huh? I am not sure where you was heading with this.. He was probably released due to some deal or due to not being worth the bad publicity. But its hardly was the point of that article.

 

 

 

..I was pulled out of a car at a checkpoint, then blindfolded, beaten, and tied up with tape. After spending hours alone on the floor of a damp cell with my hands tied behind my back and a hat pulled over my eyes, I was led into a room where I was accused of working for the CIA, FBI, and Right Sector, the Ukrainian ultra-nationalist group.

 

When I refused to give the password to my laptop, I was smacked in the arm with a truncheon. When I was asleep on the floor, masked men came to wake me up and tell me how no one would miss me if I died, and then kicked me in the ribs as they left.

 

But as it turns out, I had it pretty easy, because I was let go.

 

..a dozen other nameless detainees .. Most had been in that cellar far longer than I had. They had been there for up to two weeks, and are most likely still there now.

 

 

I find Ironic the claims that its ethnic Russian that need protection against the "fascist, Nazis, ultra-nationalist.."(the convenient stereotype that Russia state media has been focusing on from the start, to dismiss or marginalize any elements that is viewed as harmful, while appealing to emotion of the "great fathers war"(ww2)

 

Because I recall the peacefully protested for months against corrupted and criminal system of state relations(like in Russia), and I am aware of the culmination of the later police heavy handed attempt to end the protest and the clash that draw thugs from all across the map(e.g. titushki) I recall MANY accusations on the facis/nazis.. front that hasn't managed to materialize, and that overall status quo has been maintained.

 

On the other hand I see Pro-Russian militias that seem to be far better equipped and organized, who has no problem to illegally detain who ever they want and exact street justice, people tortured murdered and helicopters blow up.. well at least they are fighting the so called "Fascist/Nazi" bastards from the west..

 

 

Kramatorsk. Military helicopter exploded in airport.

 

Nice to see you cheering attempted murder, you bloodthirsty prick.

 

Maybe he thought its an accident, with the helicopter just exploding like that in early reports it was said to be a grande launcher or sniper bullet ( personally, I don't know about sniper bullets, iirc helicopter fuel suppose to less volatile than car fuel and mythbusters has put holes in the whole notion of cars full of fuel and bullets ending in epic explosions, but that not very scientific of me ). Anyway if they militias start blow any transport vehicle they encounter it would be a big escalation..

 

Also, I'd like to note that spontaneous gathering of hot headed nationalist brutes tend to cause a lot more collateral harm. On the other hand coordinated efforts, that strike a military base and avoid causalities tend to have a guiding hand..

 

If referendum is fake why Kiev punish Crimean people and cut water to them? It's rhetoric question, answer is obvious.

You mean illegal. I don't see how this change the fact of the matter that Crimea is being under Russia's control. So, are you asking why Ukraine decided to cut export to the aggressor country that previously used the same tactic with them, violated assurances toward them, their sovereignty and currently seem to actively try to destabilize them to make another real estate grab? Because while I do not know how wise is this move, it pretty obvious that this one of the few leverages Ukraine still got and I sure hope that the Russia expansion into Crimea will become ever more costly. The more money they funnel from Russia to the westren expensions project, the more it works against them. Edited April 27, 2014 by Mor

[Zoraptor]

OSCE observers abused their "neutral" "observer" status during the Kosovo war to place locators on Serbian army positions for NATO. I hope they throw him in prison to rot.

 

 

Yeah, can't be too sympathetic with the observers- sending a team which is almost all NATO (and one token 'neutral'- ha ha, very funny- Swede) and a bunch of Ukrainian Army Officers into rebel held territory is an... odd decision, if you actually wanted to avoid provocation. I can't imagine Ukraine allowing Russians under the OSCE banner into their areas. Still, maybe they'll be able to do a swap for some of the many political prisoners the non democratic self appointed coup rump junta regime etc etc government are currently holding so something good can come from it.

 

And I'd bet the reported Russian overflights of Ukrainain territory, about which no info has been provided, are over Crimea. That's exactly the sort of pseudo fact I've come to expect from the western propaganda machine. I also note, with little surprise, that the person who took one of the critical 'proof of Russian troop presence' photos has confirmed it was taken in Ukraine and not Russia as Ukraine and their buddies have claimed, and that he was neither asked for permission to use it or asked where it was taken.

[Drowsy Emperor]

I guess the Russian troops are hard to see cos' Saddam's WMD's are in the way.

[Walsingham]

I am almost speechless. You're buying the idea that the Russian media, with provable direct ownership straight to Putin, is more trustworthy than Western media organisations with a long history of independence and multiple mechanisms for enforcing as much impartiality as possible...

 

I guess what interests me is why you'd pick the former. Is it that you hate the latter and you'll choose any damn fool who is against NATO?

 

Can I ask whether you also believed comical Ali? I'm genuinely curious.

[Sarex]

I am almost speechless. You're buying the idea that the Russian media, with provable direct ownership straight to Putin, is more trustworthy than Western media organisations with a long history of independence and multiple mechanisms for enforcing as much impartiality as possible...

 

I guess what interests me is why you'd pick the former. Is it that you hate the latter and you'll choose any damn fool who is against NATO?

 

Can I ask whether you also believed comical Ali? I'm genuinely curious.

 

Oh Russian media is not more trustworthy, it's pretty much equally trustworthy as the western media. That you think that western media reports the truth is oh so funny.

[BruceVC]

I am almost speechless. You're buying the idea that the Russian media, with provable direct ownership straight to Putin, is more trustworthy than Western media organisations with a long history of independence and multiple mechanisms for enforcing as much impartiality as possible...

 

I guess what interests me is why you'd pick the former. Is it that you hate the latter and you'll choose any damn fool who is against NATO?

 

Can I ask whether you also believed comical Ali? I'm genuinely curious.

 

What surprises me is that you are surprised he believes that?

[BruceVC]

 

I am almost speechless. You're buying the idea that the Russian media, with provable direct ownership straight to Putin, is more trustworthy than Western media organisations with a long history of independence and multiple mechanisms for enforcing as much impartiality as possible...

 

I guess what interests me is why you'd pick the former. Is it that you hate the latter and you'll choose any damn fool who is against NATO?

 

Can I ask whether you also believed comical Ali? I'm genuinely curious.

 

Oh Russian media is not more trustworthy, it's pretty much equally trustworthy as the western media. That you think that western media reports the truth is oh so funny.

 

 

I love the irony behind one of the great premises of what you conspiracy theorists believe, no Western international news channels can be trusted. " And we know this because we read this on  Farmer Johns Alabama Chicken Liver Factory and Unveiling the Truth behind Conspiracy Theories " website  ( he sells chicken liver  when he is not exposing all these great lies)

 

And yet you claim to know more about the world than some of us as you see what's really going on