Global Implications of the Ukraine Crisis

[Mor]

 

Previous threads: first, second

 

 

Quick summary of the topic, for those of you who unfamiliar with it to get you started:

Why is Ukraine in turmoil?

Ukraine economy: How bad is the mess and can it be fixed?

 

Why Crimea is so dangerous?

How the crisis unfolded - timeline summary.

Ukraine: UN condemns Crimea vote

Analysis: Could Russia absorb eastern Ukraine?

 

A nice summary of issues from US presepective on Russian rhetoric pre invasion: (covers a lot of issues discussed in thread #1 )

 

 

US state department memo, so take it with a grain of salt, still it provide a good summary of the major point raised by the two side. I wouldn't say that Russia would necessarily pick those 10 points for its case, but its good enough and provide decent summary (I learned new details on two points)

 

As Russia spins a false narrative to justify its illegal actions in Ukraine, the world has not seen such startling Russian fiction since Dostoyevsky wrote, “The formula ‘two plus two equals five’ is not without its attractions.”

 

Below are 10 of President Vladimir Putin’s recent claims justifying Russian aggression in the Ukraine, followed by the facts that his assertions ignore or distort:

 

1. Mr. Putin says: Russian forces in Crimea are only acting to protect Russian military assets. It is “citizens’ defense groups,” not Russian forces, who have seized infrastructure and military facilities in Crimea.

 

The Facts: Strong evidence suggests that members of Russian security services are at the heart of the highly organized anti-Ukraine forces in Crimea. While these units wear uniforms without insignia, they drive vehicles with Russian military license plates and freely identify themselves as Russian security forces when asked by the international media and the Ukrainian military. Moreover, these individuals are armed with weapons not generally available to civilians.

 

2. Mr. Putin says Russia’s actions fall within the scope of the 1997 Friendship Treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

 

The Facts: The 1997 agreement requires Russia to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, which have given them operational control of Crimea, are in clear violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.

 

3. Mr. Putin says The opposition failed to implement the February 21 agreement with former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych.

 

The Facts: The February 21 agreement laid out a plan in which the Rada, or Parliament, would pass a bill to return Ukraine to its 2004 Constitution, thus returning the country to a constitutional system centered around its parliament. Under the terms of the agreement, Yanukovych was to sign the enacting legislation within 24 hours and bring the crisis to a peaceful conclusion. Yanukovych refused to keep his end of the bargain. Instead, he packed up his home and fled, leaving behind evidence of wide-scale corruption.

 

4. Mr. Putin says Ukraine’s government is illegitimate. Yanukovych is still the legitimate leader of Ukraine.

 

The Facts: On March 4, President Putin himself acknowledged the reality that Yanukovych “has no political future.” After Yanukovych fled Ukraine, even his own Party of Regions turned against him, voting to confirm his withdrawal from office and to support the new government. Ukraine’s new government was approved by the democratically elected Ukrainian Parliament, with 371 votes – more than an 82% majority. The interim government of Ukraine is a government of the people, which will shepherd the country toward democratic elections on May 25th – elections that will allow all Ukrainians to have a voice in the future of their country.

 

5. Mr. Putin says There is a humanitarian crisis and hundreds of thousands are fleeing Ukraine to Russia and seeking asylum.

 

The Facts: To date, there is absolutely no evidence of a humanitarian crisis. Nor is there evidence of a flood of asylum-seekers fleeing Ukraine for Russia. International organizations on the ground have investigated by talking with Ukrainian border guards, who also refuted these claims. Independent journalists observing the border have also reported no such flood of refugees.

 

6. Mr. Putin says Ethnic Russians are under threat.

 

The Facts: Outside of Russian press and Russian state television, there are no credible reports of any ethnic Russians being under threat. The new Ukrainian government placed a priority on peace and reconciliation from the outset. President Oleksandr Turchynov refused to sign legislation limiting the use of the Russian language at regional level. Ethnic Russians and Russian speakers have filed petitions attesting that their communities have not experienced threats. Furthermore, since the new government was established, calm has returned to Kyiv. There has been no surge in crime, no looting, and no retribution against political opponents.

 

7. Mr. Putin says Russian bases are under threat.

 

The Facts: Russian military facilities were and remain secure, and the new Ukrainian government has pledged to abide by all existing international agreements, including those covering Russian bases. It is Ukrainian bases in Crimea that are under threat from Russian military action.

 

8. Mr. Putin says There have been mass attacks on churches and synagogues in southern and eastern Ukraine.

 

The Facts: Religious leaders in the country and international religious freedom advocates active in Ukraine have said there have been no incidents of attacks on churches. All of Ukraine’s church leaders, including representatives of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Moscow Patriarchate, have expressed support for the new political leadership, calling for national unity and a period of healing. Jewish groups in southern and eastern Ukraine report that they have not seen an increase in anti-Semitic incidents.

 

9. Mr. Putin says Kyiv is trying to destabilize Crimea.

 

The Facts: Ukraine’s interim government has acted with restraint and sought dialogue. Russian troops, on the other hand, have moved beyond their bases to seize political objectives and infrastructure in Crimea. The government in Kyiv immediately sent the former Chief of Defense to defuse the situation. Petro Poroshenko, the latest government emissary to pursue dialogue in Crimea, was prevented from entering the Crimean Rada.

 

10. Mr. Putin says The Rada is under the influence of extremists or terrorists.

 

The Facts: The Rada is the most representative institution in Ukraine. Recent legislation has passed with large majorities, including from representatives of eastern Ukraine. Far-right wing ultranationalist groups, some of which were involved in open clashes with security forces during the EuroMaidan protests, are not represented in the Rada. There is no indication that the Ukrainian government would pursue discriminatory policies; on the contrary, they have publicly stated exactly the opposite.

Link

 

 

UK government's response to points made by President Putin in his address to the Russian Parliament on 17 March: (covers alot of issues in thread #2)

 

 

President Putin: addressed a joint session of the Russian Parliament on 17 March. Here is Her Majesty’s Government’s response to some of the points he made in his speech.

 

President Putin:

On 17 March in the Crimea, there was a referendum in full correspondence with democratic procedures and international legal norms. More than 82% of the voters took part in the referendum; more than 96% spoke for reunification with Russia. These figures are more than convincing.

 

Response:

Not only did the referendum violate Ukraine’s constitution, it was not in line with internationally agreed democratic procedures and best practices. Russian armed forces have been in Crimea for several weeks, during which time they installed a pro-Russian puppet administration that voted through a referendum via a closed parliamentary session, under watch from armed, foreign gunmen, from which MPs opposed to Russia’s agenda were excluded. The referendum’s preparation – which was just 10 days – was characterised by a complete lack of transparency over the composition of local electoral commissions, voters’ lists, and the number of ballot papers issued - with no meaningful impartial observers. The wording of the two questions posed made it impossible for voters to express support for Crimea’s existing status within Ukraine – nor were the questions on the ballot explained, nor was there a free public debate in Crimea. There are credible reports of intimidation. The 96.7% result is wildly out of kilter with the results of a representative opinion poll, conducted by a reputable Ukrainian research institute, as recently as February 2014, which indicated that only 41% of Crimean voters supported the region’s incorporation into Russia. The turnout is also suspiciously high given wide opposition boycott.

 

President Putin:

I understand those who came out to Maidan, speaking against corruption, for peaceful protest, for just elections. Elections are there to change the power that is not good for people, but those who are behind the latest events in Ukraine were aiming a different objective. They were preparing coup d’état. They were planning to grab power without stopping before anything. Terror, murders, pogroms: everything was used. The main figures in the coup were antisemites, Russophobes, nationalists and neo-Nazis. And they determined a lot of what’s happening in Ukraine.

 

Response:

Since President Yanukovych’s departure, the Ukrainian Parliament and interim government’s actions have been in keeping with the Ukrainian Constitution. Numerous groups, including the United Nations, OSCE and the Ukrainian rabbinical association, have not seen widespread human rights violations, or anti-Semitic pogroms anywhere in Ukraine. Former President Yanukovych’s own party, the Party of the Regions, supported measures implementing the interim Ukrainian government and calling for new elections. The single greatest destabilizing force in Ukraine right now is Russia.

 

Euromaidan was composed of a cross-spectrum of ordinary Ukrainians with a common agenda to demonstrate their opposition to abuses of power and their desire to see change. It was remarkably disciplined and self-restrained. They acted only in self-defence in response to violence initiated by the authorities under the direction of former President Yanukovych.

 

President Putin:

One of the first acts of the new authorities was scandalous revising of the law on languages.

 

Response:

Ukraine’s interim President refused to enact legislation limiting the use of the Russian language at regional level, and Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yatseniuk has said that this proposed law will not be enacted.

 

President Putin:

It is also clear that there is no legal and executive power in Ukraine.

 

Response:

There is clear legal and executive authority in Ukraine. The abandonment of office by former President Yanukovych was confirmed by a constitutional vote in Parliament – which remained unchanged and was elected in a free vote of the people in Ukraine. The interim government was approved by an overwhelming majority in a free vote in the Ukrainian Parliament, including representatives of Yanukovych’s Party of the Regions.

 

President Putin:

Those who were resisting the putsch were threatened with repressions and punishment, and the first was Crimea – Russian-speaking Crimea. Therefore, citizens of Crimea and Sevastopol addressed themselves to Russian government to protect their lives: not to let happen in the Crimea what is happening in Kiev, Donetsk and other cities of Ukraine.

 

Response:

The OSCE High Commissioner said that she has found “no evidence of any violence or threats to the rights of Russian speakers” in Crimea. Ukrainian ombudsman Valeriya Lutkovska said that no residents of Crimea have contacted her regarding the violation of their rights.

 

No credible/verifiable evidence has been presented to justify claims that Russian nationals are under threat in Crimea or elsewhere in Ukraine. We have seen no evidence of attacks on churches in Eastern Ukraine, as the Russians have claimed. Ukraine’s interim President refused to enact legislation limiting the use of the Russian language at regional level.

 

President Putin:

Military forces of Russia have never entered Crimea: they were there in accordance with international agreement

 

Response:

Not true. Their equipment, armaments and training clearly mark them out as Russian troops – for example driving military vehicles with Russian licence plates. If they are local militias, why do they not openly identify themselves as such? Black Sea Fleet (BSF) personnel have operated outside their bases in contravention of BSF agreements.

 

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has reported that the 1st Motor Rifle Battalion Vostok of the 18th Separate Vehicle-Mounted Assault Brigade, which is stationed in Kalinovka in the Chechen Republic, is now deployed in the town of Dzhankoy in Crimea. Also servicemen of the 31st Separate Assault Brigade of the Airborne Troops, which is stationed in the Russian town of Ulyanovsk, and the 22nd Special-Purpose Brigade from the Krasnodar Territory are deployed in Crimea as well.

 

There are a number of examples of these troops freely identifying themselves as Russian security forces – eg Military personnel at Belbeck and Simferopol airports.

 

President Putin:

Crimean authorities were also basing on Kosovo precedent that our… the precedent that was created by our Western partners with their own hands in a situation that was absolutely similar to Crimea, and they recognise Kosovo separatism… legal….The fact that, during the Kosovo… the conflict in Kosovo, there were many victims.

 

Response:

The situations in Crimea and Kosovo are not comparable. Kosovo’s eventual independence came about through a long, inclusive, internationally-sanctioned process, under the auspices of a UN Security Council Resolution, reaching an agreed political settlement. The referendum in Crimea is attempting retrospectively to legitimise the unilateral action of one state which, as last weekend’s Security Council showed, is acting in complete diplomatic isolation.

 

Of course, Russia’s position on Kosovo does seem to be inconsistent. At a Security Council meeting on Kosovo on 18 February 2008, Ambassador Churkin for the Russian Federation said: “The unilateral declaration of independence and its recognition are incompatible with the provisions of the Helsinki Final Act, which clearly specify the principles of inviolability of frontiers and territorial integrity of States”

 

Link

 

 

Map of the area and list of previous conflict in the region involving Russian help:

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2014 by Mor

[Mor]

Obama: Russia must pull back troops from Ukraine border

US President Barack Obama has urged Russia to "move back its troops" on Ukraine's border and lower tensions.

Russia is believed to have massed a force of several thousand troops close to Ukraine's eastern frontier.

Mr Obama told CBS News it may "be an effort to intimidate Ukraine, or it may be that [Russia has] additional plans."

Meanwhile, a Russian security official has said intelligence measures are being stepped up to counter Western threats to Moscow's influence.

...

"I think there's a strong sense of Russian nationalism and a sense that somehow the West has taken advantage of Russia in the past, " Mr Obama said. "What I have repeatedly said is that he may be entirely misreading the West. He's certainly misreading American foreign policy."

Mr Obama said the US has "no interest in circling Russia" and "no interest in Ukraine beyond letting Ukrainian people make their own decisions about their own lives".

...

The last bit from Obama should be amusing to anyone who followed those thread and oby like minded pals. I wonder how many times Obama will be pushing that reset button until he realize that, which is unfortunate because I can't think of any reasonable\effective way to deal with those trolls.

Edited March 28, 2014 by Mor

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

So is this thread going to get a facelift everytime it gets restarted?

[Mor]

The problem with Russia recent liberation ponzi scheme is that Crimea dependent on the mainland for power and water. So now Putin is stuck with either provide that infrastructure or conquer/intimidate eastern part of Ukraine i.e. the large Russian force "training" on the border and the I understand he already ordered a new bridge to crimea (which will cost another 5 billion to Russian people, on top of the recent expanses in sochi. Considering that Russia economy goes down, IMO the more money he spends on this front and army, the better, less is left for much more important interest in Asia and less is left the fools who keep idolizing Putin)

 

 

@KaineParker, What do you suggest, tell Putin that the 80s called and want their foreign poly back 

Edited March 28, 2014 by Mor

[Malcador]

Obsidian Forumite Legion to begin rotating troops through Ukraine and Baltic states early next week.

[213374U]

Obsidian Forumite Legion to begin rotating troops through Ukraine and Baltic states early next week.

 

Reporting for duty.

 

(because despite tough talk, NATO isn't about to do anything about it anytime soon)

[Rostere]

 

I don't buy this theory that Jews control America and everything that Israel does American supports, the situation is much more nuanced. The Jewish lobbyists have influence in America as do all lobby groups but I would argue the influence that Israel has is exaggerated.

 

Oh come on Bruce, that's not what I said at all. The US is definitely acting against it's own reasonable interests in the I/P issue with regards to Israel, but that does not necessarily mean that one part "controls" the other. People have done a lot of stupid things through history, usually not because they were "controlled" by someone else in some nefarious fashion but out of ignorance or neglect.

 

The pro-Israel lobby is essentially the only well-organized foreign policy lobby in the US worth mentioning. It does also have some overlap with parts of the defence industry lobby (if you look at members of certain think-tanks, for example). We have very affluent political donors like Sheldon Adelson who says he's sad he did military service in the US instead of in Israel, meeting four prospective Republican candidates in person on the upcoming Republican Jewish Coalition (an "Israel First" lobby group) meeting to see who supports his core issues (ban on online gaming and American taxpayer money to Israel) the most. It's not a conspiracy or illegal in any way and anyone could find out what these organizations have been up to by simply checking in on their websites. Through these means of political donations, "Israel first" groups certainly doesn't "control" the US any more than say, Goldman Sachs or Bank of America does with their sizeable political donations.

 

The pro-Israel lobby is hardly the most influential one in US politics, but it does matter a lot that it doesn't really have any counterweight. There is no one really lobbying in the opposite direction, so it makes sense for a lot of politicians to just regurgitate the same old tired phrases of "unbreakable alliance", "we should totally bomb Iran/Iraq/the Arabs" and so on and so forth, receive their campaign money and move on to the domestic policy questions which the voters are far more aware of. But there's no conspiracy, there's not anyone doing anything illegal, it's just a question of a very dedicated special interest group running amok on tax-deductible (which opens up for another ****ed up story...) political donations. You surely have some similar groups where you live, although hopefully not a system of tax-deductible donations to political or pseudo-political groups.

 

The reason it was so funny that Israel didn't vote with their "ally" the US was because firstly that Israel's entire creation hinges on illegal annexation, so they could impossibly vote for the resolution with a straight face. Secondly because of all the talk about an "unbreakable alliance" when Israel has not done anything the the US ever as far as I know - other than occasionally sinking US Navy ships. To compare, the US has - alone in the UNSC - vetoed numerous UN condemnations of Israeli ethnic cleansing and illegal occupation which is to the human rights credibility of the US (especially in the Muslim world and the ME) the equivalent of sacrificing an arm or a leg. You would have thought the Israelis owed them something in return, but apparently not.

 

My apologies for replying to a post from the old thread, but I felt I couldn't just leave it unanswered.

[Valsuelm]

My apologies for replying to a post from the old thread, but I felt I couldn't just leave it unanswered.

 

 

 

No need to apologize as it's not really an old thread but this one before it was interrupted. That threads are closed on this forum just for reaching an arbitrary # of posts is pretty retarded in my opinion.

[Valsuelm]

I don't buy this theory that Jews control America and everything that Israel does American supports, the situation is much more nuanced. The Jewish lobbyists have influence in America as do all lobby groups but I would argue the influence that Israel has is exaggerated.

To add to what Rostere said, Jews /= Israel. The number of Jewish people in the U.S. who are against U.S. support of Israel and it's policies is not small. The pro-Israeli lobby of course would have you believe otherwise, some such as the ADL, even going as far as occasionally calling Jews who speak out against Israel anti-Semitic. The insanity of some propaganda knows no bounds.

 

Okay my friend, lets see the economic reality for Russia in 12 months. Then we can comment on how prudent the decision to illegally annex Crimea was

If the Russian economy is in trouble a year from now, something bad will have happened that has nothing to do with whats so far gone on in Ukraine/Crimea and the U.S. and EU's economy will be worse off. Of all the major nations in the world Russia's economy currently is probably the most insulated from global catastrophe, and the most self-sufficient.

 

Barring some global catastrophe that hits pretty much everyone I except Russia's economy to do just fine. Too bad a friendly wager cannot be made, I do enjoy collecting on things such as this, and have a history of doing so from people I can look in the eye.

Edited March 28, 2014 by Valsuelm

[213374U]

 

My apologies for replying to a post from the old thread, but I felt I couldn't just leave it unanswered.

 

 

 

No need to apologize as it's not really an old thread but this one before it was interrupted. That threads are closed on this forum just for reaching an arbitrary # of posts is pretty retarded in my opinion.

 

 

IIRC, this was originally done for stablility reasons—huge topics caused issues and posts would go missing or something; it's not arbitrary. The software has been updated numerous times however, so I'm not sure it's still necessary.

 

Also, the old version of the forum software allowed you to go into "reply" mode even in locked threads, where you could then copy the whole post and paste it on the new thread, with proper quotations and link to the original post. Maybe the mod squad could check with Admin if it would be possible to have that option back or enable the "multiquote" button in locked topics?

[Wrath of Dagon]

The reason Israel abstained is obvious, Russia can make a hell of a lot of trouble for them if it wants. Same reason Israel goes out of its way not to offend China. For other US allies it's an easy vote, not a hell of a lot Russia can do to them.

[Rostere]

 

 

My apologies for replying to a post from the old thread, but I felt I couldn't just leave it unanswered.

 

 

 

No need to apologize as it's not really an old thread but this one before it was interrupted. That threads are closed on this forum just for reaching an arbitrary # of posts is pretty retarded in my opinion.

 

 

IIRC, this was originally done for stablility reasons—huge topics caused issues and posts would go missing or something; it's not arbitrary. The software has been updated numerous times however, so I'm not sure it's still necessary.

 

Also, the old version of the forum software allowed you to go into "reply" mode even in locked threads, where you could then copy the whole post and paste it on the new thread, with proper quotations and link to the original post. Maybe the mod squad could check with Admin if it would be possible to have that option back or enable the "multiquote" button in locked topics?

 

Yes, I kind of miss that functionality. The apology was in part directed to the moderator which mentioned discussion going OT in the closing post of the last thread, and at the annoyance people must feel when they see quoted sentences not corresponding with any post and not attributed to any writer. I really miss the old quoting system - I think it was in use all the time from when I joined this forum in 2007 up until last year or something and I never heard of anyone having any problems with it, so it's a mystery to me why it was changed.

[Mor]

Kyiv post, article titled "State Of War"

 

Reports that tens of thousands of Russian troops and military hardware, including artillery, tanks, warplanes and helicopters are amassing and carrying out war games on all sides of Ukraine.

 

 

Ukraine’s new National Guard trains on March 17. The nation is scrambling to mobilize 40,000 National Guard and reserve members to bolster a Defense Ministry with 180,000 personnel. Fears are high of a Russian invasion of Ukraine’s mainland, following its invasion and annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

..

High concentrations have been spotted in Russia’s Klimovo in the north and Russia’s Belgorod in the northeast, in Russian-annexed Crimea in the south and in Moldova’s breakaway Transnistria region in the southwest, as well as sizable groups carrying out military exercises in Belarus in the north.

 

 

 

 

 

what do you think the likellehood of Russian further incursion connecting all their assets, will these guys fight and do they have any chance against Russia forces?

Edited March 29, 2014 by Mor

[Mor]

 

Obsidian Forumite Legion to begin rotating troops through Ukraine and Baltic states early next week.

 

Reporting for duty.

 

(because despite tough talk, NATO isn't about to do anything about it anytime soon)

 

Uhm we don't need more Pro-Russia self defense forces

 

As for NATO, I am not sure what you expected it todo, I don't recall anyone(even the hawks)suggesting that direct action can be taken against Russian aggression. At the same time Russia acted in a convenient time for NATO, which has been downsized due 2008 recession and was likely to follow another downsizing after soon to be over Afghanistan campaign, while Russia iirc increased military spending almost two fold during the last four years, Russia acts of irredentism and test of test NATO and EU resolve in Ukraine and Georgia, and recent world leader impression of Putin nationalistic ambition come as wake up call to NATO and give it purpose.

 

 

Okay my friend, lets see the economic reality for Russia in 12 months. Then we can comment on how prudent the decision to illegally annex Crimea was

If the Russian economy is in trouble a year from now, something bad will have happened that has nothing to do with whats so far gone on in Ukraine/Crimea and the U.S. and EU's economy will be worse off. Of all the major nations in the world Russia's economy currently is probably the most insulated from global catastrophe, and the most self-sufficient.

 

Barring some global catastrophe that hits pretty much everyone I except Russia's economy to do just fine. Too bad a friendly wager cannot be made, I do enjoy collecting on things such as this, and have a history of doing so from people I can look in the eye.

 

Is this assumption based on facts, because from what I read Russia economy started Stagnating during Putin second term and haven't stooped since, with overall lower and lower predictions. Current Russian economic plan dictates that unless it change move from export oriented policy it will crash.

 

Also according to this article the outward appearance of Russian seemingly healthy economy is sketchy:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2014/01/23/russias-growing-regional-debts-threaten-stability/

[Rostere]

The reason Israel abstained is obvious, Russia can make a hell of a lot of trouble for them if it wants. Same reason Israel goes out of its way not to offend China. For other US allies it's an easy vote, not a hell of a lot Russia can do to them.

 

I can see that Israel would not want Russia (or China) to sell Iran AA. But they are already doing that, so nothing to do there. Other than that, there is little or nothing Russia could do which wouldn't backfire on themselves with catastrophic consequences. If Russia was caught arming terrorists "indirectly" (if that's what you're insinuating? Please elaborate!), there would be hell to pay. Actually, there are a lot of countries in Africa who voted "yes" who would be much more vulnerable than Israel if Russia decided to rock the boat.

 

Nevertheless, it's not as if that would depend solely on one UN vote or even several UN votes. Russia won't make a "hell of a lot of trouble" for Finland or Turkey for voting "yes". To be honest, I think you're seeing a pre-Arab Spring or even a Cold War picture. Syria is the only country left in the region with significant ties to Russia which they could prop up (they can hardly sell anything to Iran/Iraq they aren't already selling), compare that to the situation in the sixties or seventies. Like every dictator Assad cares about the preservation of his own power and he knows that any attack on Israel in these days would be literally signing his own death warrant, with zero chance of achieving anything remotely similar to a military victory of any kind.

 

It's just bizarre having an "ally", yet expecting them to follow other nations' whims when it matters. But I guess that's just in line with all the other bizarre and inexplicable elements of US foreign policy. Funneling billions of taxpayer money yearly in direct support to a piddling Middle Eastern statelet most famous for the systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing (or "Judaization") on illegally occupied territory, while pissing in the face of real allies like the UK on what should be no-brainer issues like the Falkland Islands.

 

No wonder Putin felt he could annex Crimea. Personally I don't believe in relative standards, but usually it's expected of any leader to exercise some sort of moral leadership which sets a precedent for what is OK for others to do. When the current leadership is perceived as only caring about pragmatic economic interests and support of domestic single-issue groups and not moral standards, it's from a Machiavellian point of view a perfectly correct bet by Putin to annex Crimea. I bet he could even seize Donetsk and Luhansk without Obama doing anything much. People are completely wrong to say sanctions will hurt the US/EU more than Russia, but they are very right in that the US/EU leaders are unwilling to take even any hit to the bag of coins in support of their moral convictions.

 

Unfortunately this is the same story as behind WW2: Putin has started with Crimea, but no one really minds because they were almost all Russian to begin with. Unless a credible opposition condemns the military methods used to get there, we might see it happen again. This time with a much less Russian area such as eastern or southern Ukraine. The core issue right now is the same as weeks before: not Crimea in itself, but the troops massing on the eastern border of Ukraine. Sadly, the US which would otherwise be a natural leader on issues like these has the global credibility of a used car salesman at best.

[Mor]

...People are completely wrong to say sanctions will hurt the US/EU more than Russia, but they are very right in that the US/EU leaders are unwilling to take even any hit to the bag of coins in support of their moral convictions.

 

Unfortunately this is the same story as behind WW2: Putin has started with Crimea, but no one really minds because they were almost all Russian to begin with. Unless a credible opposition condemns the military methods used to get there, we might see it happen again. This time with a much less Russian area such as eastern or southern Ukraine. The core issue right now is the same as weeks before: not Crimea in itself, but the troops massing on the eastern border of Ukraine...

Agreed.

 

 

The reason Israel abstained is obvious, Russia can make a hell of a lot of trouble for them if it wants. Same reason Israel goes out of its way not to offend China. For other US allies it's an easy vote, not a hell of a lot Russia can do to them.

 

I can see that Israel would not want Russia (or China) to sell Iran AA. But they are already doing that, so nothing to do there. Other than that, there is little or nothing Russia could do which wouldn't backfire on themselves with catastrophic consequences. If Russia was caught arming terrorists "indirectly" (if that's what you're insinuating? Please elaborate!), there would be hell to pay. Actually, there are a lot of countries in Africa who voted "yes" who would be much more vulnerable than Israel if Russia decided to rock the boat.

 

Are you insinuating that there are any countries in Africa who are more likely(not vulnerable) to be effected by such vote than Israel(Please elaborate which and why!). As if Israel hasn't been the focus of US/Russia proxy wars for decades and that increased US-Russian rivalry wouldn't lead to Russia lashing out against US interest, such as its current foreign effort in Israel\Syria\Iran, or by arming US\Israel adversaries.

 

Anyway, here is an article from Jerusalempost, from the start of the Ukrainian crisis, which explained why they are going to sit on the sidelines through this conflict. Also a repost of the 'UN voting map against Russia annexation of Crimea' from the previous page. Which should at least help you visualize how insignificant they are in the context of this crisis and response to it.

Edited March 29, 2014 by Mor

[Zoraptor]

what do you think the likellehood of Russian further incursion connecting all their assets, will these guys fight and do they have any chance against Russia forces?

Some will fight, but going by Crimea a lot will simply defect or desert- that's the course 2/3 of the Ukrainian troops there took. The Russians would wipe the floor with whatever is left, I don't think anyone has any reservations on that count.

 

Ukrainians already lost a heap of military hardware in Crimea as well, including something like a quarter of their combat aircraft.

[Mor]

I don't know about that. First I wouldn't use the term defect\desert, which is strong word for something that IMO most would do in such circumstance in which region de-facto joined another country, and will not leave their family\life behind, regardless of how rigged the game was. Second, I think you misjudge Ethnic Russian sentiments, when we dispense with hot headed rhetoric, many believe that Putin is the reason why Russia can't have good things and would never want to be back under Russia thumb. Third if bullets will start to fly, I have no doubt that Russia will crush Ukraine, but at the same time their support will be grinned to dust. But most of all IMO there will be no invasion now, that this was another farse used to leverage a political compromise and solidify Russian gain in Crimea. (Also that not to say that Russia is going to continue to pursue this by other means or later time, until it solidify its hold up to Transnistria).

[Zoraptor]

According to internal Ukrainian sources  80% of their service personnel have defected in Crimea. Not wanting to leave your family/ home holds some water, but not anywhere close to 80%- you'd expect considerably more than 20% to have no immediate family in the region at all, and the rump government in Kiev has tried repeatedly to say that they will help in relocation. Even half that- and almost certainly a quarter- would render their military effectively useless in a genuine conflict.

 

I rather doubt that many Ukrainians worry much about whether Russia can't have good things- Russia has 4 times the GDP/c of Ukraine, one of the reasons even ethnic Ukrainians in the east and south prefer Russia is that narrow economic fact. And of course they also have to put up with the western parts expecting both economic subsidisation from the s/east and for the western parts to be able to set aside elected officials from the s/east when they don't like them and remove support for their language too.

 

 

 

And an interesting article from Sergei Krushchev (yes, related) over at Al Jazeera. Despite the decision being his father's to attach Crimea to Ukraine and him being ethnic Ukrainian himself he is not supportive of their claim at all.

Edited March 29, 2014 by Zoraptor

[Mor]

I rather doubt that many Ukrainians worry much about whether Russia can't have good things- Russia has 4 times the GDP/c of Ukraine, one of the reasons even ethnic Ukrainians in the east and south prefer Russia is that narrow economic fact.

Soo going with that logic if a country like Austria had bigger economic issues, they would prefer to throw away their sovereignty in favor of Germany who has 4+ times its GDP? or maybe you refer to GDP per capita then Poland and Finland out rank Russia by far, I don't know about Russian regions joining Finland over its economical issues but the idea is ho ho ho for china, I recall more then one complain about them swarming over the border.

 

Which is exactly why I said that many Russian (especially those who don't watch Russian media or has access to Russian non state media broadcasting outside of Russia and thus avoid the patriotic goggles instituted by law) remember that leaders like Putin is eventually why Russian can't have good things.

 

Also if you like the Krushchevs here is an article for you , I agree 100% with what it says about Brezhnev era expansionism and what it led to.

 

 

Not wanting to leave your family/ home holds some water, but not anywhere close to 80%- you'd expect considerably more than 20% to have no immediate family in the region at all

You are welcome to research the Ukrainian forces in Crimea demographics (especially among the fleet personnel, which was Crimea), group dynamics and what not to substantiate your expectations, but as far as I am concerned those two different situations, i'd do the same in Crimea and most certainly not do it in Ukraine.

[obyknven]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/03/30/rogers-putin-absolutely-not-looking-for-a-way-out/

 

House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers say

 

"There is no way that I would take that as any sign other than he is looking for a way to find his land bridge from Crimea to Transnistria along the northern Baltic Sea area, which is right along the Moldova and Ukraine border,"

Comments:

 

Baltic Sea? Hmmm.

 

Baltic? Thank you thank you thank you -- past time for him to retire

 

Did he REALLY say Baltic Sea? 
If so, intelligence isn't required to be the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. 
He might be a Canadian spy. 

 

That's awesome

 

alas for rogers' hypothesis, crimea, treanistria, ukraine and moldova are nowhere near the baltic sea
 

   

[Cultist]

So it seems that "economic sanctions" and "international isolation" turned out to be a load of hot air. What a surprise!

[obyknven]

After last events everything become clear...

 

1. Armenia become outraged after Turkish attack against Armenian town Kessab in Syria.
2. War between Armenia and  Turkey become possible, old enemies, old hate.
3. But this war mean war between Armenia and Azerbaidjan also, Armenia surrounded by enemies.
4. Armenia is member of Eurasian union, member of Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russian troops are here. In case of war Russia anyway participiate in this on Armenian side.
5. Iran possible join to war  and occupy Azerbaidjan, if not Russia do this instead.
6. De facto war between Syria and Turkey are begin. After election win of Turkish ruling party they make statement about this. Syria participiate in war against Turkey also.
7. Leaked conversation of Turkish government  about preparation of Kessab attack looks like FSB work - Russians known about such plans long ago and can calculate all consequences of this.
8. This pic show situation in Mediterranean sea now - Turkey surrounded by Russian fleet from West and from South.
9. This pic show situation in Black sea now - after capture of Crimea Russians totally control this sea. Turkey surrounded from all sides by Russians now ( http://forum.ixbt.com/post.cgi?id=attach:54:56552:1573:1 ) . Crimea is perfect natural fortress, easy to protect, but completely useless as lodgement for invasion into Ukraine. Wery strong Russian army in Crimea not against Ukraine ( they practically don't have military forces now ).
10. Russians send moar troops with nuclear weapon to Western and Southern borders.
11. SA and Qatar can begin war in any moment also.
12. In result we have major Middle Eastern war in near future.  In any moment this war can be transformed in World war .

In other words main target of Crimean campaign is not Ukraine but Turkey, this is some sort of preventive actions before real war. It's very serious game, because of this all red lines, sanctions and other threats completely useless and even harmfull, they only make war closer.

 

[Mor]

I don't know why the cynicism. I think that most posters were aware that no one will go to war over Ukraine, certainly not in today post recession economy, dependency on Russian energy monopoly and geopolitical issues in which Russian cooperation is needed. Doubtless its why Russia felt they can get away with this again, and why no one here suggested direct action, and while there were some talk about sanctions on top of personal issues, there was a concern that such action would push Russians further into the nationalistic trap that Putin has been perpetuating.

 

So while the biggest battle was over apathy and awareness, i still wouldn't dismiss sanctions and other measures. Starting with the biggest multi billion new Russian energy projects that are still stuck at EU legislation, to smaller much needed cooperation for Russian economy if it wish to evolve past crude energy exports, to indirect action such exposing Tzar Putin dirty laundry, because there is nothing that poor people like more than a politician that stuff his pockets with money..

Edited April 1, 2014 by Mor

[Walsingham]

Nice to see oby is all humid about the prospect of glorious war. Good thing it's going to stay in his head.

 

This was a calculated gamble by Putin, where he can hold the threat of further annexation as a threat against a Ukraine that cannot respond and a US administration that takes its foreign policy plays from Bob the Builder.

 

He's not about to attack a properly armed and prepared NATO member. It's a test to see if the Turks close the Bosphorus. It's an easy response, but it would allow him to paint Russia as a victim to the Russian people, beset on all sides and with only Czar Putin to defend them.

 

All this talk of isolation and sanctions is total baloney. All I've EVER seen sanctions do to autocrats is make them more powerful.