Renewed unrest in Egypt

[Rostere]

So apparently, **** is stirring in Egypt again. President Mursi's approval ratings have dropped and he is now down to his core following in the Muslim Brotherhood. The same people who forced Mubarak out of power are now out on the streets again. Crucially, they now have the military's support. The military, which has a very prominent role in Egypt, stated (some 10 or so hours ago) that Mursi was forced to agree to the people's demands within 48 hours or else the military would step in and depose him. Tourism has plummeted in Mursi's Islamist Egypt which is still economically unstable. Indeed five ministers, one of which were the minister of tourism, has already resigned. On the other hand, Mursi was demcratically elected for a four year-term.

 

Secondly, there is the question of to which degree the military is on their own side and to which degree they are on the people's side in this conflict. Their exact wording calls for "protests to calm down". This could also be aimed at opposition groups, if the military is just out to grab power themselves.

 

Bring forth the popcorn, and so on. Is democracy winning or losing right now? What is happening?

[Walsingham]

I believe we pretty much agreed that Egypt's core issue is economic, and simply deposing Mubarak wasn't going to solve it.

 

Too many young men are coming of age each year with no obvious jobs to do.

 

My 'analysis' is that the Brotherhood have simply found out that it's a lot easier to agitate outside power than to actually do any good when you get it.

 

Beyond that, I think we will see a military intervention. yes, they will only be legitimising the Brotherhood. But by the same token, now they've made the threat they can't back down or they will be emasculated. Pretty flimsy prediction tho.

[Malcador]

Well if people are expressing outrage with their leaders and seek to topple them, looks like a win for democracy by definition, in a way.

[Walsingham]

Well if people are expressing outrage with their leaders and seek to topple them, looks like a win for democracy by definition, in a way.

 

Not really. He was elected. Democracy isn't the same as mob rule.

 

technicalities aside, even if they depose him the next bugger will have exactly the same problems, and pretty much the same toolbox to tackle them. He won't do any better.

[Moose]

"The Brotherhood". Might as well call themselves  "hubologists" or "stonecutters".

 

Egypt's unrest won't end until those at the top grow up like the rest of the world and realise in a modern times you have to present the illusion of democracy and freedom to your subjects. The game requires so much more finesse these days.

[Malcador]

 

Well if people are expressing outrage with their leaders and seek to topple them, looks like a win for democracy by definition, in a way.

 

Not really. He was elected. Democracy isn't the same as mob rule.

 

technicalities aside, even if they depose him the next bugger will have exactly the same problems, and pretty much the same toolbox to tackle them. He won't do any better.

 

Well if they topple him and replace him with someone else voted in, I fail to see the problem in that. Winning an election shouldn't be a shield, really. Done differently in that country as opposed to here.

[Walsingham]

If a mob of goons tried to depose even an unpopular British government I'd be cheering on the cops. I don't want mobs deciding who runs my country.

 

However, I'm in danger of oversimplifying. I gather Morsi has been squaring things away to try and corner power. So arguably this is about him no longer being democratic, even if voted in.

[Moose]

I thought politics was all about one mob of goons trying to topple the other.

[Walsingham]

I've only recently become interested in Roman history. But it seems to me that a reliance on the mob is exactly what doomed the Republic.

 

That or it could have been a giant space station.

 

I get easily confused.

[Malcador]

I thought politics was all about one mob of goons trying to topple the other.

Only on a designated day every couple of years.

[Rostere]

Clearly, Mursi's rule has consisted of one facepalm after the other. Recently, out of all the things the President of Egypt should do, he has been busy deciding over whether or not he should ban the Cairo ballet school, as a sign of goodwill towards the problematic Salafis. He has also chosen to side (primarily) with these Salafis (radical Islamists) over any of the other movements - leftists, liberals, secularists, (military) conservatives, and so on. The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party are like the worst kind of Conservatives among the Republican party - eager to tell other people what they can or can not do, resentful against minorities and secretly trying to push religion into the political discussion through the back door. Mostly they have been doing this inside the boundaries of democracy, although since there is no existing democratic framework, his opponents have been very vocal in criticizing his way of writing Egypt's new constitution. Imagine if the US should endeavour to write a completely new constitution under the presidency of Rick Santorum, who came to power much due to a more fragmented opposition. Because of the things at stake, the protests would be immense.

 

What's interesting is that these Islamists, whether thay are Salafis or more moderate, were not the primary revolutionary group when Mubarak was overthrown (compare to the revolution in Iran!). The voice of the Muslim Brotherhood is the voice of the simple, rural, uneducated Egyptians who instinctively lean to Islam for guidance in this new political world of democracy. This is essentially the price paid in instability and economic decline for voting with your heart instead of your brain.

 

During his rule, violence against Shia Muslims and Christians have intensifed, and although he has spoken out against this, it's clear that it is to no effect and constitutes no concrete effort.

[Calax]

I've only recently become interested in Roman history. But it seems to me that a reliance on the mob is exactly what doomed the Republic.

Actually, it was generals paying their own troops, and the aristocracy doing their best to remain separate from the mob that led to their fall. With Ceasar becoming a popular figure, and paying his own troops, he was untouchable unless he was separate from them.

[Gorth]

I don't remember the exact number, but IIRC, the number of Caesars dying from old age in the 400 years after the Republic can be counted on one hand. Survival of the fittest (or most important lobby group) indeed.

 

As for Egypt, sad to say, but I don't think it has much of a future. The population is currently 4 times the size (in my uneducated estimate) of what their infrastructure can sustain. Most of them are going to be without work or a future regardless of whoever currently holds power.

 

No oil, no industry worth mentioning, mediocre agricultural processes... Rather sad when 80 million people rely so much on tourism.

[ravenshrike]

 

Well if people are expressing outrage with their leaders and seek to topple them, looks like a win for democracy by definition, in a way.

 

Not really. He was elected. Democracy isn't the same as mob rule.

 

technicalities aside, even if they depose him the next bugger will have exactly the same problems, and pretty much the same toolbox to tackle them. He won't do any better.

 

An election in which you are the only organized political party is nothing more than a sham and about as valid as pretty much every single Chicago election. Which is to say not at all. Pretending otherwise is ludicrous.

[Calax]

I don't remember the exact number, but IIRC, the number of Caesars dying from old age in the 400 years after the Republic can be counted on one hand. Survival of the fittest (or most important lobby group) indeed.

 

I was referring to the ORIGINAL Ceasar.

 

As to Egypt? If what you're looking at is true, for all we know bits of Syria and eastern Egypt will hug each other in a special way and have a new nation.

[Gorth]

...and?

 

He was the end of the Roman Republic and the beginning of a 400 year tradition, each successive Caesar following in his footsteps

[pmp10]

I don't remember the exact number, but IIRC, the number of Caesars dying from old age in the 400 years after the Republic can be counted on one hand.

Just no.

They may not have lived to the "ripe old age" by our standards but plenty of Emperors went by what in their day would be natural causes.

[Gorth]

 

I don't remember the exact number, but IIRC, the number of Caesars dying from old age in the 400 years after the Republic can be counted on one hand.

Just no.

They may not have lived to the "ripe old age" by our standards but plenty of Emperors went by what in their day would be natural causes.

 

Slightly exaggerated, yes. Out of 94 emperors, approximately 25 died from natural causes (including plague). A few are questionable, as they may or may not have been poisoned (never proven either way). The rest was either murdered or committed suicide. I still think you would have the odds stacked against you as Roman Emperor. Lifestyle hazard?

[Zoraptor]

Is getting chopped into sausage by Goths natural causes or being murdered?

 

Actually it's amazing how few Roman emperors got killed in battle, Valens was the only one I was sure of that wouldn't be being murdered by his own troops, or executed after losing. Which I guess kind of proves the point.

[Walsingham]

According to the BBC the Tamarod movement has the following manifesto:

 

The Tamarod movement says more than 22 million people have signed a petition complaining that:

• Security has not been restored since the 2011 revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak
• The poor "have no place" in society
• The government has had to "beg" the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $4.8bn loan to help shore up the public finances
• There has been "no justice" for people killed by security forces during the uprising and at anti-government protests since then
• "No dignity is left" for Egyptians or their country
• The economy has "collapsed", with growth poor and inflation high
• Egypt is "following in the footsteps" of the US

I thought this rather supported my contention that it's total bollocks:

- How does angry protesting increase security?

- In what fantasy Egypt are the poor (and we're talking proper poor here, not Western poor) going to have a 'place'?

- Do they know of anyone else handing out billions of dollars?

- Practically speaking, Morsi would have to be mental to start attacking the same Armed Forces who are protecting him

- What the **** is dignity anyway? And how much do they want? The same as Kent? Me burping? A really good cesar salad?

- Morsi couldn't possibly have turned the economy around in the time available and with global conditions as they are

- Who else is Egypt going to align with to get funds and investment? Russia? China? They already have partners in the region.

Edited July 3, 2013 by Walsingham

[Nepenthe]

I thought politics was all about one mob of goons trying to topple the other.

 

That's the American interpretation.

[Walsingham]

 

I thought politics was all about one mob of goons trying to topple the other.

 

That's the American interpretation.

 

 

I would have described the American system as two intractable lines of blindfolded pikemen stabbing each other very slowly, while trampling a lot of people who are pretending not to notice while discussing celebrities.

 

Rather than mobs of goons.

[Nepenthe]

 

 

I thought politics was all about one mob of goons trying to topple the other.

 

That's the American interpretation.

 

 

I would have described the American system as two intractable lines of blindfolded pikemen stabbing each other very slowly, while trampling a lot of people who are pretending not to notice while discussing celebrities.

 

Rather than mobs of goons.

 

 

As my learned friend has yet again demonstrated, sniping is more effective than drive-by shooting.

[Walsingham]

I thought that was you shooting.

 

AGH! We're being shot at!

[HoonDing]

Look at the bright side. At least when these crazies are infighting, they aren't bombing the pyramids.