Rouhani wins!

[Walsingham]

Obviously, Rouhani has taken up a tough job, but most of the media I read regards him as a moderate, and it seems like good news.

 

I'm pleased for all the smart educated Iranians I've met over the years. They really deserved better than Ahmedinejad.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

While I'm positive this is good news for Iran, this means we miss out on Ahmedinejad's annual UN speech.

[Agiel]

I highly suspect this to be a strategic decision on the part of the clerics. While it may very well have been that Rouhani won mathematically, it is the clerics who decide who ultimately gets the seat of the presidency, and they simply OK'd his win (while it is certainly possible that Ahmedinejad had won a majority vote the last election, it's believed that the clerics padded his lead to make it look like he had a far better mandate, something a lot of Iranians didn't believe for a second). My guess is that the clerics hoped that a "moderate" "head of state" who makes token reforms might keep urban Iranians relatively well-behaved and fool some westerners into believing the Islamic Republic is making strides to "join the international community" and that would lead to easing of sanctions later. Rouhani has no say on Iran's nuclear program, save for being its face to the rest of the world, as ultimately the Grand Ayatollah has the final word on their nuclear program. 

 

That said, Rouhani does have enough power to make economic changes, which means that he may reverse some of the bad economic decisions made by his predecessor. However, he can only do this within the limitations of the international sanctions placed on the Iranian economy (it's possible that some State Department officials were secretly hoping for another Ahmadinejad, as that would mean the effects of sanctions would be accelerated).

Edited June 16, 2013 by Agiel

[Volourn]

How long does it take before the clerics  smack him down. Plus, remember 'moderate' in iran ism likely not the same as 'moderate' elsewhere. Afterall, he needed to be approved by the clerics to run in the first place. And, they still have the true power.

[Walsingham]

Well, I'm sure Agiel would agree that Iran's far from a basket case like North Korea. If only because people genuinely expect to be able to vote. But I agree that there's an element of letting the candidates win.

 

I don't see anything sinister in a move towards moderation. Cynical, certainly. I have a degree of faith that provided reforms happen slowly that Iran could move quietly and slowly towards greater civic freedoms.

 

IMO the real problem isn't the clerics, it's the Revolutionary Guards Council. They have huge power, undiminished by all their proxies and shady deals. Sooner or later a real moderate would be obliged to rein them in, and I just can't see that working.

[Agiel]

Well, I'm sure Agiel would agree that Iran's far from a basket case like North Korea. If only because people genuinely expect to be able to vote. But I agree that there's an element of letting the candidates win.

 

I don't see anything sinister in a move towards moderation. Cynical, certainly. I have a degree of faith that provided reforms happen slowly that Iran could move quietly and slowly towards greater civic freedoms.

 

IMO the real problem isn't the clerics, it's the Revolutionary Guards Council. They have huge power, undiminished by all their proxies and shady deals. Sooner or later a real moderate would be obliged to rein them in, and I just can't see that working.

 

An anecdotal story: I had an Iranian roommate last year. I was taking a class on Cold War history, and I was given an assignment to write about Iran's role in it. My roommate saw that I had an article on Ayatollah Khomeni opened on my computer and asked me: "Why would you want to write a paper about that a**hole?"

 

I in fact think there's more hope for Iran now than there has ever been, despite what my assessment might have some to believe. While I don't really expect it to be so within a decade, much less with this administration, a nationalist secular government a la Ataturk-era Turkey is a very real possibility in the future (many Iranians actually quietly respect Reza Shah the elder, who modeled his attempts to modernise Iran after Kemalism). Many young Iranians have or are getting educations abroad (in particular, in the universities of "the Great Satan"), so the clerics are now looking at a young population that not only doesn't like them, but also favours good relations with the west (after 4 or more years of casual sex, beer, and blazing, how many of them do you think find the idea of hardcore Sharia enticing?)

[melkathi]

On anecdotes:

An iranian friend at university, when we were asked to write papers on the human-rights-based approach to management, asked the professor who the paper would be read by, if there was the danger that it would be published and readable back home. He only wrote the paper after it was guaranteed that it would be handled confidentialy...

[Walsingham]

Further point: Iran is a complete mess of different religions, ethnicities, and chopped every which way by mountains. I'm pretty convinced their centralising tendencies arise from trying to hold together a country that is basically a wet cake.

[Meshugger]

In what way is this guy moderate? "Moderate" as instead of the 500 lashes by the wip for adultery, he solemnly only grants 200?

[HoonDing]

Misread thread title as Rihanna.

[Rostere]

A few remarks:

 

Consider carefully the candidates who were not allowed to run - all three significant banned candidates were very popular, well-known and with an already existent following. The choice of these reflects in my opinion a wish for an obedient president, in a way they were "cutting the grass" leaving only the unestablished candidates to run. This could reflect how the Ayatollah has had increasingly much trouble with Ahmadinejad, who in an alternate universe without crushing international sanctions would easily have enough legitimacy among the Iranian people to overshadow the theocratic aspect of the state.

 

The winner of the election is a cleric himself. Depending on other government factors, his power might end up quite limited - if he is interested at all in fulfilling his promises to the public. He may in the end become known as "the Iranian Obama".

 

For the theocratic elite, there is not much intrinsic value to antagonizing "the West". Historically, the US has had a very bad reputation because of what they did to Iran in the 70s, so it has been an easy thing to rally the people around. But things change and eventually old grievances are forgotten. If it would be in the economic interest of Iran, and thus be necessary to preserve the theocratic regime of the Ayatollah, I'm sure they would have no problem with approaching the West. Again, we see that preservation of the Islamic state is the pattern to follow regarding the highest leadership's decisions.

 

So, the interesting "other side" to this election is the part of the Iranian society which not is anti-US for merely pragmatic reasons (which are now starting to be forgotten, anyway...): the Revolutionary Guard, who really follow some sort of revanchist ideology in this matter, where the US is an enemy no matter what the current situation look like. It is important to note here that Ahmadinejad had close ties with this organization, as had another candidate who lost in the election. In the previous election, the Basij militia (which is part of the RG) had a significant role in the violence against protesters. Technically the RG are under the command of the Ayatollah, but if they were to think that the clerical leadership betrays their core tenets... then who knows what would happen. Apparently Ahmadinejad could at least argue with him, I remain doubtful however to the possibility that they might actually resort to violence.

[Malcador]

Misread thread title as Rihanna.

All the US would need to do is elect Chris Brown then

[Rosbjerg]

While I'm positive this is good news for Iran, this means we miss out on Ahmedinejad's annual UN speech.

 

Man that was my favorite drinking game.. A shot for every time a delegate walks out.

[PK htiw klaw eriF]

 

While I'm positive this is good news for Iran, this means we miss out on Ahmedinejad's annual UN speech.

 

 

Man that was my favorite drinking game.. A shot for every time a delegate walks out.

That must have been brutal on your liver....but awesome for your mind!

[Morgoth]

Iran sends 4000 troops into Syria to aid Assad

 

Yo off to a good start.

 

Syria is now becoming some poor proxy for the international warmongers. Everybody wants to join the fray! USA! UK! RUSSIA! IRAN! ISRAEL!

 

This whole thing is going to escalate very soon into something very big. WW3 scenario big.

[Meshugger]

Nah

[Morgoth]

Nah

 

Oh well, I feel much more relaxed now. Thank you. Crisis averted.

[Walsingham]

Get a grip on yourself. Leaving aside how WW3 would happen, I'm more interested in why you sound so bloody happy about it.

[Rostere]

I don't think the different actors are as interested in war today compared to 1914 for a lot of reasons, if indeed a "world war" is even possible with nuclear weapons.

 

On the other hand, out of the many current international issues Syria is by far the MOST likely to escalate and drive the world as close as it can to a world war.

[Morgoth]

Get a grip on yourself. Leaving aside how WW3 would happen, I'm more interested in why you sound so bloody happy about it.

 

You should rather ask that question to your Prime Minister.

 

 

On the other hand, out of the many current international issues Syria is by far the MOST likely to escalate and drive the world as close as it can to a world war.

 

Thanks for corroborating my point.

[Gorth]

I don't think the different actors are as interested in war today compared to 1914 for a lot of reasons, if indeed a "world war" is even possible with nuclear weapons.

 

On the other hand, out of the many current international issues Syria is by far the MOST likely to escalate and drive the world as close as it can to a world war.

I believe Syria is such a mess, that nobody, including the new Iranian president, is interested in getting their hands "dirty". Israel don't want Syrian troops to threaten the occupation of the Golan heights, nor do they want Hizbollah or AQ to gain influence. Russia doesn't want their access to the Mediterranean jeopardized, USA doesn't want to fight a war with no visible gains, Europe doesn't know what it wants, except bicker internally about it and in the meantime, thousands of people get killed for no good reason.

 

It's currently a 3-way war between a motley, unorganised group of rebels, a motley group of religious fanatic rebels and militarily well equipped religious minority who doesn't want either rebel group to gain power. It's hard to support any side, because you will invariably end up supporting a side incidentally that you had no interest in supporting.

 

Yeah, the new Iranian guy has his work cut out for him, not just with nuclear programs and surviving Iranian politics (which seems very similar to the late Roman Republic).

[Walsingham]

Gorth makes some interesting points. I think the most likely outcome is:

 

- The USA and UK register profound disquiet, but blame inaction on Russian air defences; get out of domestic jail free, point finger sat Kremlin hurrah

- Russia is happy with a naval base and client state in the Med, and Syrian crude selling through Russian companies or not at all.

- Iran/Rouhani is happy because he has a live issue to scare Israel with, and look tough

- Israel is reassured that they live in a dangerous neighbourhood and can't possibly give ground

- The jifs are happy because they have a real live war to play with minus Coalition intelligence and drones

- Assad is happy because he has stayed the course

 

The only people I can see being upset by all this are the poor bloody ordinary Syrians.

[Meshugger]

I was about to write a more indept analysis in response to morgy, but walsh beat me to it.

[Morgoth]

 

The only people I can see being upset by all this are the poor bloody ordinary Syrians.

 

Not sure if ~100k civilians being slaughtered in the past two years can be so easily dismissed as just "I can see they're upset".

 

But I'm glad that more weapons are shipped into Syria so that even more civilians can get slaughtered. Someday, when not a single soul there is left, peace can finally return!

[Walsingham]

 

Not sure if ~100k civilians being slaughtered in the past two years can be so easily dismissed as just "I can see they're upset".

 

It's called 'phlegm'. You should try some with lime juice. It beats poisonous depression all to hell.