Cyprus Financial Crisis, a real collapse possible?

[BruceVC]

Hi All

I have been following this story closely as it has quickly became a crisis for Cyprus

 

In summary the Cyprians need a bailout, about 10 Billion Euros, to prevent banks and financial institutions from failing. The Cyprian parliament rejected the loans terms from the EU as this loan had the condition that there would be a tax on all people who had deposited money into any Cyprian banks. I can understand this, but the EU wants to tax the money of wealthy Russians who have hidden Billions of Euros in Cyprian banks. Anyway the EU has now given Cyprus till Monday to agree to the bailout terms or it will cancel any current funding that is keeping Cyprus alive. If this happens the Cyprus economy will collapse. See the link below for an informative summary of the crisis

 

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aebf3e16-913b-11e2-b4c9-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2OFzlNjCv

 

What do you guys think, are you worried this could impact other EU countries or do you now think its time countries were kicked out the EU for not managing there economies? I'm sure we have some Cyprian members on this forum, I know Melk lives there sometimes. To be fair to Cyprus part of there financial issues are caused by the fact there banks had massive investments in Greece, and we all know the Greek story

Edited March 22, 2013 by BruceVC

[Gorth]

Yeah, sucks when you try to make a profit off corruption. The Greek system that was, was almost as corrupt as the Berlusconi government (funny story, Danish journalists found a Danish railroad train that had mysteriously disappeared, despite being bought and paid through Danish tax payer money. Turned out that Berlusconi had given it to Ghadaffi as a gift to celebrate his 40th anniversary as a dictator).

 

I think they will moan and whinge and try to blackmail EU for a while to avoid having to touch those Russian money laundering accounts. I wouldn't be surprised if the kickback and bribes are substantial and the government officials wouldn't want to miss out on it.

[BruceVC]

Yeah, sucks when you try to make a profit off corruption. The Greek system that was, was almost as corrupt as the Berlusconi government (funny story, Danish journalists found a Danish railroad train that had mysteriously disappeared, despite being bought and paid through Danish tax payer money. Turned out that Berlusconi had given it to Ghadaffi as a gift to celebrate his 40th anniversary as a dictator).

 

I think they will moan and whinge and try to blackmail EU for a while to avoid having to touch those Russian money laundering accounts. I wouldn't be surprised if the kickback and bribes are substantial and the government officials wouldn't want to miss out on it.

 

"train that had mysteriously disappeared"

 

I know its not funny but that must have really irritated Danish taxpayers

[HoonDing]

Maybe it's time for another Kickstarter.

[Gfted1]

I think if Cyprus falls it will tempt Greece to default also and after that...I dont know, maybe a domino effect on the PIIGS.

 

Cyprus does have an out though, seems they are willing to sell oil resources to Russia for the 10B loan.

[Rosbjerg]

Well maybe it's time northern Europe goes its separate way, I've always wanted to se a Scandinavian union rather than a European one, a France/Germany union would be a powerhouse and then the British could also do what they want - as a major player in their own Commonwealth. I also think southern Europe would do fine on it's own - if their people aren't paying taxes the corrupt officials won't have any power - as it is now northern Europe is essentially funding corruption in the south.

 

Of course taking European history in to account, this would risk a future war between north and south..

[BruceVC]

I think if Cyprus falls it will tempt Greece to default also and after that...I dont know, maybe a domino effect on the PIIGS.

 

Cyprus does have an out though, seems they are willing to sell oil resources to Russia for the 10B loan.

 

This doesn't seem like an option anymore. The Russians aren't interested in the natural gas, not oil, that can be found in Cyprus. And to compound the woes of Cyprus I now see that Russia has said they won't be bailing out the Cyprians as its not a good investment. Geeeeee thats a surprise, Russia not helping out another country when they have nothing really to gain

[NOK222]

Why not just tax the Russian Billionaires? 

[Gorgon]

That would scare the rest off.

[Meshugger]

What would scare the rest off?

[BruceVC]

Why not just tax the Russian Billionaires? 

 

Even though that makes sense if they just singled out the Russians if would be seen as discrimination and there credibility as a reliable investment country would be effected. Also the Russians own about 30 % of all the money in the banks in Cyprus so they wouldn't want to annoy them.  What has been suggested is a tax on any deposit over 100k Euros. So that shouldn't impact the average person

[Orogun01]

 

Why not just tax the Russian Billionaires? 

 

Even though that makes sense if they just singled out the Russians if would be seen as discrimination and there credibility as a reliable investment country would be effected. Also the Russians own about 30 % of all the money in the banks in Cyprus so they wouldn't want to annoy them.  What has been suggested is a tax on any deposit over 100k Euros. So that shouldn't impact the average person

On the other hand a lot of the Russian that invest in Cyprus are rumored to be either involved with shady dealings or with the government (or both) so they aren't likely to make much fuss if they fear any backlash from the Russian government. 

Of course, that is sort of an educated guess.

[JadedWolf]

Concerning their credibility as an investment country, I think that ship already sailed, and is already halfway around the world.

[Morgoth]

[HoonDing]

Kick out all filler countries and revert back to 1967 borders. Or even better, just keep the Benelux.

[AGX-17]

The Turks will probably complete their invasion/conquest of the island. The northern half having been invaded and occupied by Turkey in 1974.

Edited March 23, 2013 by AGX-17

[NOK222]

In that case I'll ring up my boy Frankie and say Deus Vult

[Zoraptor]

Better get in quick, I hear he's going to call a crusade to liberate Las Malvinas from the hated heretics of Angleland.

[NOK222]

Time to end the heretical descendants of King Henry

[AGX-17]

Better get in quick, I hear he's going to call a crusade to liberate Las Malvinas from the hated heretics of Angleland.

Meanwhile, the Celts are conspiring a coup to take back Britain from the Germanic-Norman occupiers.

[rjshae]

Next thing you know, they'll be wanting to tax my mattress.... Need to find a new place to hide my money.

[Rostere]

Sigh. What can you say, it becomes clearer and clearer who benefits from the EU and who doesn't.

[Gfted1]

Those that are fiscally responsible?

[Malcador]

Don't imagine it's that simple.

[Zoraptor]

No, the same people who always benefit from unions, especially monetary unions- the strongest players. The Euro is brilliant for Germany as the weaker countries keep it low relative to what it should be if they were still on the DM, but it's terrible for a weak economy as it's artificially high for them and they have to compete against the Germans with their advantages. All Germany is doing with their current 'largesse' is returning some of the money they siphoned out in the first place, while making sure that even more money flows to them. After all, who's going to keep their money in a PIIGSCSBRHELL account rather than a German one when Merkel will feel free to dip into your savings there whenever convenient? Far better to put your money into a nice safe place like, say, Germany.