Tunisia and Egypt play dominoes?

[Zoraptor]

There's no way Iran is involved. They don't have the capability and there's no prospect of a MB government (or any other really) being friendlier to Iran than Mubarak is.

 

Yemen is a different story as it has a sizeable shi'ite population some of which is already in open revolt, and is next to one of Iran's major enemies.

 

If Mubarak were to fall, the big question is would it open the way for the Muslim Brotherhood to take over.

It isn't a question at all. The kefaya movement, so far as I can make out, is a reaction without any political point, and there's no obvious successor to Mubarak. The Brotherhood have an open goal, and all they have to do is make moderate noises and wait.

The army won't back the MB, and the MB know it. If there's one thing Mubarak has really done well- not surprising given the fate of his predecessor- it is to make sure that the army is loyal, well paid and definitively not a hotbed of religious zealotry. Shame it's also corrupt as anything, and runs a fairly sizable chunk of the Egyptian economy as its own private cash cow.

 

Some of the media outlets seem to be pushing El Baradei as a possible successor. Peace Prize winner (so he'd have something immediately in common with Obama, haha) who has had enough disagreements with the west not to be seen as a stooge and gives a reasonable impression of not being corruptible. Whether he has any real support within Egypt though is a bit of an open question.

[Wrath of Dagon]

If Mubarak were to fall, the big question is would it open the way for the Muslim Brotherhood to take over.

It isn't a question at all. The kefaya movement, so far as I can make out, is a reaction without any political point, and there's no obvious successor to Mubarak. The Brotherhood have an open goal, and all they have to do is make moderate noises and wait.

I was trying to be optimistic. Also I agree with Zoraptor a lot of it is up to the army, but the army would have to somehow come up with a credible alternative or up the repression to eleven.

[Kaftan Barlast]

OR... the people could take the civilised route and form a socialist democratic goverment.

[213374U]

The army won't back the MB, and the MB know it.

Maybe. But there's a difference between not backing and actively standing against. Egypt isn't a secular state, so there may not be such a great drive to prevent the MB from attaining power, within the army.

 

In any case, ****.

[Darth InSidious]

OR... the people could take the civilised route and form a socialist democratic goverment.

Egypt is officially both socialist and democratic. Mubarak's party is the National Democratic Party. Is/ought gap.

[Walsingham]

OR... the people could take the civilised route and form a socialist democratic goverment.

 

Burst out laughing at this.

 

Sorry. No offence meant, Egypt.

 

I agree that Iran is going to poorly represented in Egypt, and if they have any sense they'd be bongoing themselves at the thought of an MB run government controlling Arab general policy and the Suez canal. The MB's mates in Iraq kill hundreds if not thousands of Shiites each year simply for being Shiites.

[Monte Carlo]

Why do despotic regimes in 'developing' countries always use armoured personnel carriers in public order situations? OK, the obvious answer is because (a) it's a despotic regime and (b) a big tracked vehicle bristling with weapons is really scary and © in most of these places the point where the military ends and the police begins is a little blurred.

 

Anyway, on the front page of the Times is a burning APC, my long-forgotten AFV recognition skillz do not allow me to identify it (except that it looks like it came from an early game of Command and Conquer) but of course it's on fire. Slowly moving tracked vehicles are not optimal against crowds, and let's face it the Egyptian army is unlikely to use the rockets and minigun option on crowds just yet. So why? It's like bringing a baseball bat to a round of golf.

 

These countries need horses and dogs and water cannon. More effective, cheaper, and looks more civilized on the evening news.

[Kaftan Barlast]

Among the confused reporting from the region, this revolt doesnt seem to have anything to do with any Islamists. It just appears that most people got sick and tired of being poor and miserable under a corrupt and repressive regime.

[Monte Carlo]

^ Absolutely, more power to them. No doubt people will think it's a CIA plot, but they would, wouldn't they?

 

As for the Muslim Brotherhood, of course the risk is you replace one type of tyranny for another but there's nothing to say that the MB has the necessary traction to take as much advantage of this as it might like.

[Walsingham]

Why do despotic regimes in 'developing' countries always use armoured personnel carriers in public order situations? OK, the obvious answer is because (a) it's a despotic regime and (b) a big tracked vehicle bristling with weapons is really scary and

[Nepenthe]

Why do despotic regimes in 'developing' countries always use armoured personnel carriers in public order situations?

 

Yeah:

 

(for those lacking appreciation of advanced sarcasm, that's a Saxon APC on patrol in Northern Ireland).

[Malcador]

He didn't say it was only those countries that did it, heh. Anyway, I'm guessing like most militaries they don't have anything but military hardware and as apparently they've tossed the police from the streets in some places, they're all that's out there.

Edited January 29, 2011 by Malcador

[Kaftan Barlast]

In Sweden, we're so awesome that we have a law that prevents the goverment or the police to call on the military to supress protests etc. This because of the events in

[Monte Carlo]

Why do despotic regimes in 'developing' countries always use armoured personnel carriers in public order situations?

 

Yeah:

 

(for those lacking appreciation of advanced sarcasm, that's a Saxon APC on patrol in Northern Ireland).

 

That was quite witty, but not analagous. I'd say that Cairo a week ago was more peaceful than West Belfast circa 1984.

[Monte Carlo]

By the way, I've driven one of those (and fallen off the top of one having had too much to drink). It's a big metal box on wheels, drives like a skip, the centre of gravity is too high so you wouldn't want to corner too fast in one.

[Nepenthe]

That was quite witty, but not analagous. I'd say that Cairo a week ago was more peaceful than West Belfast circa 1984.

Not analogous, but still close enough to be funny in light of your previous statement.

 

I hope the time you fell off wasn't one of the times you'd driven it.

[213374U]

In Sweden, we're so awesome that we have a law that prevents the goverment or the police to call on the military to supress protests etc. This because of the events in

[Monte Carlo]

That was quite witty, but not analagous. I'd say that Cairo a week ago was more peaceful than West Belfast circa 1984.

Not analogous, but still close enough to be funny in light of your previous statement.

 

I hope the time you fell off wasn't one of the times you'd driven it.

 

No, I was completely sober when I drove it. We displayed it at a show when they were first issued, and it was on a static display after hours. We had a few beers and decided to climb on top of it to see who could get up there fastest. Not a good idea.

[cronicler]

MC: Compared to specialised urban police vehicles, older generation APCs are actually quite cheaper to obtain and maintain thanks to surplus prices and interchangeability of spares with military gear.

 

The funny thing is, you can't actually buy such vehicles with liquid throwers as default weapon. Liquid throwers are listed/thought as "easy to convert to flame throwers" and for "humane" reasons, it is harder to buy them.

 

You need to buy your own pressure assembly separately and field modify it for water cannon if you want to have one. (Hell, it is even a bureaucratic nightmare to buy armoured fire-fighting vehicles for airports...)

[Walsingham]

Reprinted with kind permission from www.stratfor.com

 

The Egyptian police are no longer patrolling the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Hamas armed men are entering into Egypt and are closely collaborating with the MB. The MB has fully engaged itself in the demonstrations, and they are unsatisfied with the dismissal of the Cabinet. They are insisting on a new Cabinet that does not include members of the ruling National Democratic Party.

 

Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace. The MB is meanwhile forming people

[Calax]

In Sweden, we're so awesome that we have a law that prevents the goverment or the police to call on the military to supress protests etc. This because of the events in

[Wrath of Dagon]

Reprinted with kind permission from www.stratfor.com

 

The Egyptian police are no longer patrolling the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Hamas armed men are entering into Egypt and are closely collaborating with the MB. The MB has fully engaged itself in the demonstrations, and they are unsatisfied with the dismissal of the Cabinet. They are insisting on a new Cabinet that does not include members of the ruling National Democratic Party.

 

Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace. The MB is meanwhile forming people

[Walsingham]

I've been mulling it over, and it occurs to me that Egypt has been a lynchpin in US policy in the mideast since the Suez crisis. Iran may view backing the MB as the best way of neutralising Egypt from the game; which would leave it as an extremely strong player, comparatively speaking. A radical Egypt would also put tremendous pressure on Israel, and we know how bat**** Iran is on Israel.

 

Further it occurs to me that, having pu t down their own spontaneous demonstrations that the IRGC would be quite expert on coaching the MB in what not to do.

[Wrath of Dagon]

Exactly. Take it a step further though, the ultimate goal is Saudi Arabia.

[Zoraptor]

The chief sponsor of the Sunni Hamas is the Shiite Iran incidentally. Although I don't think Iran had much to do with the initial uprising, or MB either for that matter, it doesn't mean MB won't take advantage of the situation.

The chief sponsor of Hamas is who it always has been- radical Sunni Gulf States. Hamas gets a lot of their weapons off Iran but their other stuff- social programs/ education/ wages etc- is still overwhelmingly funded by countries that are theoretically US allies. In the end Iran and Hamas are allies for precisely as long as they are useful to each other and for precisely as long as they have a common enemy. The MB or similar having power in Egypt would almost instantly make Iran superfluous to Hamas as they could then simply get arms off them.